finit solutions - the benefits of a rolling forecast

Rolling Forecast

January 29, 2016

Bryan Hogan

Justin Cooper

©2016

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Finit EPM Services

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Finit takes pride in being a company of makers and Doers; people who dig in and get their hands dirty

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Our values on which we ask you to provide consultant feedback:

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Our values, culture, and approach to becoming a trusted advisor to our

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for every Finit client (250+) and for every Oracle Hyperion project (500+)

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Some Finit Customers

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Questions

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Upcoming Webinars

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February 12th - Driver Based Forecasting -Carla Cwiertnia

February 19th - HFM Classic vs Calc Manager – Chris Barbieri / Scott Sawers

February 26th - Intro to Planning Part II -Cindy Eichner

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About the Presenters

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Justin Cooper(jcooper@finitsolutions.com)

Certification/Education

Bachelor of Science in Computer Information Systems

Experience

8 years with Essbase8 years with Hyperion Planning9 years with Financial Reports2 years with HFM2 years with FDM

Client TestimonialJustin is doing a great job on our project. Justin has made great suggestions and works on his own when needed to complete a task. He has taken the time to show me exactly how some of his calc scripts work (as requested) and has made me feel comfortable that once Finit rolls off we will be able to maintain and troubleshoot our Planning tool.

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About the Presenters

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Bryan Hogan(bhogan@finitsolutions.com)

Experience

8 years with Essbase4 years with Planning3 years with Enterprise21 years with financial systems, reporting, and dashboards

Certification/Education

BBA- Finance & Banking, University of North Texas

Client TestimonialFinit has a remarkable reputation and no matter who you meet from the company, you can understand where the comments come from. Each of them is knowledgeable in so many aspects and takes the time to make sure the client fully understands the topic. They exceed the bar of professionalism while maintaining an enjoyable atmosphere.

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Rolling Forecast - Agenda

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• What is a Rolling Forecast?

• Traditional vs. Rolling Forecasts

• Rolling Forecasts in Hyperion Planning• “Out of the box” Solution

• Customized Solution

• Summary/Questions

What is a Rolling Forecast?

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What is a Rolling Forecast

• More fluid approach to the planning process

• Creates a cycle of continuous planning

• Avoids the year-end “wall”

• Not bound to targets or predetermined expectations

• Drives more strategic decisions versus tactical decisions made to “hit a number”

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Key Components of a Rolling Forecast

• Focus on key drivers versus a detailed list of assumptions

• Update key drivers on a regular and predetermined basis

• Incorporate the latest known impacts on the business

• Utilize what-if scenarios to evaluate catastrophic events

• Risk and Opportunities schedules are important to evaluate a range of impacts to the what-if scenarios

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Traditional vs. Rolling Forecast

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Traditional vs. Rolling Forecast

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• Both types of forecast have the same amount of actual data for trending and other analysis

• The traditional forecasts hit the year end wall in December while the Rolling Forecasts push into the following fiscal year and beyond

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Traditional Q1 (P3+9) Forecast

Traditional Q3 (P9+3) Forecast

Rolling Q1 Forecast (12 mth)

Rolling Q3 Forecast (12 mth)

Current Year Current Year +1

Year End Wall

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Traditional vs. Rolling Forecast

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Traditional Planning Process Rolling Forecast Process

Year-end Wall Always a fixed number of months into the future

Budgets are “fixed”; forecasts are adjusted snapshots of budget

Updated continuously

Time intensive to update; budget is annual “event”

Takes only days to develop each forecast

Typically planning is at a lower level Key drivers only

Negotiated targets Flexible what-if and R&O focused outcomes

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Rolling Forecast Questions

• Will a rolling forecast add more work to the finance teams to develop and maintain another set of numbers?

• Would a rolling forecast process replace:• Monthly financial reporting and variance analysis?

• Current monthly/quarterly forecasts?

• The annual budget process?

• The LRP/Strategic planning process?

• What is the best way to manage all of the versions and any integration points with other forecasts within an organization?

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Rolling Forecasts in Hyperion Planning “Out of the Box” & “Customized” solution

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Rolling Forecast in Planning

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• Main object used to enable Rolling Forecast are substitution variables

• Global placeholder for information that changes regularly

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Rolling Forecast – “Out of the box”

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• Substitution variables are auto-generated via the Planning web.

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Hyperion Planning “Out of the Box”

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Hyperion Planning - Customized

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Key Business Drivers -Example

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Key Business Drivers - Example

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• Rolling forecast monthly meeting agenda:• Discuss impacts of new actual data to

previous forecast trends

• Assess any new risks and opportunities to key drivers

• Provide estimates and assign or update probability to R&O as necessary

• Update the rolling forecast model as appropriate

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Key Business Drivers - Example

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Benefits of Implementing Rolling Forecasts in Hyperion Planning

• Centralized system/application

• Spreadsheets not book of record

• Version control

• Standardization

• Data integration

• Security

• Reporting

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Summary

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Summary

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• Provides a more dynamic view of the business

• Identifies alternative actions more quickly as:• Are more flexible

• Are proactive versus reactive

• Focus on key business drivers and strategic decisions

• Take less time to update

• Are more effective and easier to manage by utilizing a systemic planning solution to assist with:• Standardization

• Version control

• Simplified dissemination of information

Questions and Answers

Thank you for attending!

Questions?

Email us for a copy of the slides or link to the recording

insights@finitsolutions.com

Past webinars:

www.finitsolutions.com/webinars

Presenters:

Bryan Hogan

bhogan@finitsolutions.com

Justin Cooper

jcooper@finitsolutions.com

General Questions:

Greg Barrett

gbarrett@finitsolutions.com

Joe Mizerk

jmizerk@finitsolutions.com

©2016

Upcoming Webinars

February 12th - Driver Based Forecasting -Carla Cwiertnia

February 19th - HFM Classic vs Calc Manager – Chris Barbieri / Scott Sawers

February 26th - Intro to Planning Part II -Cindy Eichner