financial business model simulation: test-drive your venture - steffen rohr
Post on 31-Oct-2014
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Try before you fly
Business Model Simulation
Profit?Capital needs?Payback time?Return on Investment?Valuation?...
Balance SheetCash FlowIncome
Statement
Balance SheetCash FlowIncome
Statement
Balance SheetCash FlowIncome
Statement
Balance SheetCash FlowIncome
Statement
Better understanding of business model
Better understanding of business model
What assumtions lead to results?How important are they?
Improve decision makingInteractive tool for “playing”Makes business model tangibleExploration & explanation of resultsCommunication of business modelConsider risk & uncertainty
Better understanding of business model
1,800 2,000 2,200
50
100
Monte Carlo
Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Sales
Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Sales
2,012 1,152 1.06 2,449,827#12,016 1,086 1.22 2,671,535#2
Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Sales
2,012 1,152 1.06 2,449,827#12,016 1,086 1.22 2,671,535#21,971 1,090 1.19 2,555,510#31,938 1,105 1.17 2,516,307#42,000 1,146 1.16 2,647,883#51,968 1,166 1.07 2,465,771#62,174 1,143 1.24 3,072,286#7
2,055 1,298 1.18 3,141,262#82,144 1,115 1.18 2,831,511#91,941 1,084 1.14 2,400,131#101,886 1,208 1.19 2,713,363#11
Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Sales
1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#9982,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999
1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000
Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Sales
1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#9982,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999
1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Sales
1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#9982,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999
1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
On average 2.9 mill.
Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Sales
1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#9982,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999
1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
On average 2.9 mill.
80% chance
to be above
2.6 mill.
Items sold
Price per item FX rate
x x = Sales
1,970 1,186 1.24 2,899,259#9982,072 1,252 1.09 2,824,524#999
1,951 1,093 1.15 2,455,838#1,000
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Little chance
for more than
3.5 mill.
On average 2.9 mill.
80% chance
to be above
2.6 mill.
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Income Statement
Business Model Simulation
Business Model Simulation
Business Model SimulationTest business model in advancePlay with assumtionsUnderstand your business betterMake business logic transparentGenerate reliable numbers
Everything that's wrong with the common PC spreadsheet is fixed in Analytica.”
“
—PC Week
Business Model Simulation
Try before you fly
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