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US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center
Feasibility Analysis in Small Hydropower Planning August 1979 Approved for Public Release. Distribution Unlimited. TP-65
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2. REPORT TYPE Technical Paper
3. DATES COVERED (From - To)
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4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Feasibility Analysis in Small Hydropower Planning
5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER
6. AUTHOR(S) Darryl W. Davis, Brian W. Smith
5F. WORK UNIT NUMBER
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) 609 Second Street Davis, CA 95616-4687
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER TP-65
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12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Presented at the Conservation and Utilization of Water and Energy Resources Conference, American Society of Civil Engineering, San Francisco, California, 8-11 August 1979 14. ABSTRACT The Hydrologic Engineering Center, Corps of Engineers, has prepared a manual entitled "Feasibility Studies for Small Scale Hydropower Additions". The manual provides technical data and procedural guidance for the systematic appraisal of the viability of potential small hydropower additions and focuses upon the concepts, technology, and economic and financial issues unique to these additions. This paper presents the significant findings and conclusions that became evident from the studies performed during preparation of the manual. 15. SUBJECT TERMS small scale hydropower, feasibility, reconnaissance, planning
16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT U
b. ABSTRACT U
c. THIS PAGE U
17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU
18. NUMBER OF PAGES 26 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER
Feasibility Analysis in Small Hydropower Planning
August 1979 US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources Hydrologic Engineering Center 609 Second Street Davis, CA 95616 (530) 756-1104 (530) 756-8250 FAX www.hec.usace.army.mil TP-65
Papers in this series have resulted from technical activities of the Hydrologic Engineering Center. Versions of some of these have been published in technical journals or in conference proceedings. The purpose of this series is to make the information available for use in the Center's training program and for distribution with the Corps of Engineers. The findings in this report are not to be construed as an official Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. The contents of this report are not to be used for advertising, publication, or promotional purposes. Citation of trade names does not constitute an official endorsement or approval of the use of such commercial products.
FEASIBILITY ANALYSTS IN SMALL HYDROE'OWER PLANNING l
a Darryl W. Davis, !<ember, ASCE
Br ian W. smith,' Member, ASCE
The Kydrologic Engineering Center, Corps of Engineers, has prepared a
manual e n t i t l e d "Feasib. i l i ty S t u d i e s f o r Small S c a l e IIydropower Additions".
The manual provides t e c h n i c a l d a t a and procedural guidance f o r t h e sys temat ic
a p p r a i s a l of the v i a b i l i t y of p o t e n t c a l small hydropower a d d i t i o n s and
focuses upon the concepts , technology, and economic and f i n a n c i a l i s s u e s
unique t o these add i t i ons . The manual, designed t o a i d i n the performance
of reconngissance s t u d i e s (should a f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy b e performed?) and
f e a s i b 6 l i t y s tudi ,es (should a n investment commitment b e made?) , was developed
f o r u s e 6 y pub l i c agencies (federal , state, and l o c a l ) , pub l i c and p r i v a t e
u t i l i t i e s , and p r i v a t e i nves to r s .
The manual i nc ludes d a t a and d2scussions on the t o p i c a l s u b j e c t s of
c o s t escalat-lon I n economic and f%nanc ia l a n a l y s i s , f e a t u r e component
s e l e c t i o n f o r reconnaissance and f e a s i b i l i t y levels of s tudy , and t i m e ,
c o s t s , and r e sou rces r equ i r ed t o perform the This paper
p r e s e n t s tke s igni f i , can t f i nd ings and conclus ions t h a t became evident from
t h e s t u d i e s performed during prepara t ion of the manual CIaC, 1979).
DEFINITION OF S W L HYDROPOWER
Small hydro p r o j e c t s i nc lude i n s t a h l a t i o n s t h a t have 15,000 kV o r less
capac i ty . "Small hydro" and "low head hydro" a r e n o t synonomous . Small
1 1.
Presented a t t h e Conservation and U t i l i z a t i o n of Water and Energy Xesources Conference, American Soc ie ty of Civil Engineers, 8-11 August, 1979, San Francisco, Ca l i fo rn i a .
a Chief, Planning Analysis Branch, The Rydrologic Engineering Center, U .S . Amy Corps of Engineers, Davis, Ca l i fo rn i a , 95616.
Hydraul ic Engineer, Planning Analysis Branch, The Hydrologic Engineering Center, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Davis, Ca l i fo rn i a , 95616.
hydro as def ined has been an informal breaking p o i n t used f o r va r ious f e d e r a l
and o t h e r agency s t a t i s t i c a l t a h u l a t k n s and informal communi.cations . The
concept has no@ Seen def ined by l a w (YL 9 5-617, 95 th Congress 1978) t o be
15,000 kK f o r purposes of s p e c i a l handx-ing f o r l i c e n s i n g , l oans , implementa-
t i o n i n c e n t i v e s , and o t h e r promotZonal programs. Low head hydro is a term
a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a r e s e a r c h and devel.opment program managed by t h e Department
of Energy- t h a t i s designed t o advance the technology f o r gene ra t ing hydro-
power from sites w t t h heads of less than 20 meters (66 f e e t ) .
FACTORS' TMPORTANT FOR FEASTBILT,TY
The reasons under ly ing t h e major n a t i o n a l a t t e n t i o n t h a t i s focused on
smal l hydro is important i n e s t a b l i s h i n g the conceptual Ease f o r e s t a b l i s h -
i ng a f e a s i f j i l i t y methodology. S inply s t a t e d , they s e e m t o be: the n a t i o n a l
d e s i r e t o move t o energy independence, the c u r r e n t n a t i o n a l concern f o r
r e sou rce conserva t ion , t h e potenti.a'l f o r qu ick r e s u l t s from puG13.c and
p r i v a t e e f f o r t s Can i n c r e a s i n g l y rare commodtty- i n today ' s wor ld) , and t h e
demand f o r non f l r m energy, p r e s e n t l y valued i n many a r e a s a t 1 5 t o upwards
of 40 m t l l s per k.5lomtt-hour a s compared t o 1 t o 2 m i l l s pe r kf lowat t -
hour several years ago. The c k a r a c t e r of small hydro is such t h a t t h e
marketable output w i l l most o f t e n only be energy wi th l i t t l e , i f any, depen-
d a b l e capac i ty . This means t h e va lue of s m a l l hydropower w i l l b e p r imar i ly
due t o f u e l and o t h e r ope ra t ing c o s t sav ings and n o t due t o o f f s e t t i n g t h e
need f o r new power p l a n t s t o supply capac i ty .
The f e a s i b i l i t y of p r o j e c t s i s expected t o b e q u i t e s e n s i t i v e t o s i t e
s p e c i f i c cond i t j ons , e.g., t h e q u a n t i t y of po+er produced w i l l n o t l i k e l y
support an ex tens ive a r r a y of a n c i l l a r y f e a t u r e s such a s long t ransrnjss ion
l i n e s , acces s roads, o r s i g n i f i c a n t s i te p repa ra t ion , e t c . The n a t u r e o f
t h e market a r e a load c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p r e s e n t gene ra t ing f a c i l i t i e s
s e r v i c i n g the load a r e c r i t i c a l elements i n va lu ing power output . Areas
served wi th major f o s s i l f u e l base p l a n t s o r systems w i t h h igh ope ra t ing
c o s t p l a n t s , ope ra t ing a t the margin w i l l be more a t t r a c t i v e f o r small hydro
development. A s i g n i f i c a n t i s s u e of p r o j e c t f e a s i b i l i t y is t h a t i n v e s t i g a t i o n ,
design, c o n s t r u c t i o n management, admin i s t r a t ron and c o n t i n g e ~ l c i e s ( t he non-
hardware elements of a p r o j e c t ) are a major c o s t b ~ r d e n , F igure 1 schemat ica l ly
MINIMUM CIVIL FEATURES COSTS
C IV IL FEATURES s INDIRECTS 30% ACCESSORY
INTEREST-DURING CONSTRUCTION 10%
I MAXIMUM CIVIL FEATURES COSTS
Figure 1. Range o f C i v i l Features Costs (Vol . 6 HEC, 1979)
L l l u s t r a t e s th.e c o s t elements i n small hydro p r o j e c t s .
PZANRTNG STUDIES
Severa l types of s t u d i e s vary ing i n scope, d e t a i l , and intended c l i e n t
a r e performed t o determine t h e d e s i r a b i l t t y of pub l i c and p r i v a t e implementa-
t i o n of hydropower proposa ls . Th i s manual h a s adopted t h e s tandard sequence
of p recons t ruc t ion s t u d i e s commonly followed i n p r i v a t e and i n t e r n a t i o n a l
p r a c t f c e . TIiey a r e ' ~ e c ~ n n a i s s a n c e ' ~ (should a f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy be performed?),
' Y e a s i b i l i t y " (should an investment commitment b e made?) , and " d e f i n i t e plan' '
cthe c o l l e c t i v e group of s tud i ,es that a r e performed between an implementation
commitment and cons t ruc t ton i n i t i a t i o n t h a t r e s u l t i n permit a p p l i c a t i o n s ,
p repa ra t ion of marketing agreements and f i n a n c i a l arrangements, and d e f i n i t i o n
of des ign parameters) . The manual is designed t o a i d i n t h e execut ion of
the reconnaissance and P e a ~ ~ b i l i t y s t u d i e s . The manual d e f i n e s a reconnais- 11 sance s tudy a s . . . a p re l imina ry f e a s 2 6 t l i t y s tudy designed t o a s c e r t a i n
I1 whether a f e a s i h i l t t y s tudy is warranted: and f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy as . . . an
i n v e s t i g a t inn performed t o formula te a hydropower pro j e c t and d e f i n i t i v e l y
a s s e s s i t s d e s i r a B i 1 i t y f o r tmplementation. "
RE CObTNAIS S ANCE 5 TUDY
The execut ion of a f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy can be a s i g n i f i c a n t investment i n
t i m e and resources suggeszing t h a t a dec i s ion t o proceed wi th a s tudy should
be based on a f i n d i n g t h a t a p o t e n t i a l l y v i a b l e p r o j e c t proposal w i l l b e
forthcoming. The reconnaissance s tudy is designed t o reduce t h e p o t e n t i a l
chance of a subsequent unfavorable f e a s i b i l i t y f i nd ing and naximize t h e
p o t e n t i a l f o r i d e n t i f y i n g and moving forward t h e attractive p r o j e c t s . The
reconnaissance s tudy i s a r e l a t i v e l y complete smal l s c a l e f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy
i n which t h e i s s u e s expected t o b e important a t t h e f e a s i b i l i t y s t a g e a r e
r a i s e d . The f i n d i n g of a reconnaissance s tudy should b e either a p o s i t i v e
recommendation t o proceed wi,th a f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy whi,ck would inc lude a
s tudy p l an and method of accompl.isIiment, o r a recomaendation t o te rmina te
f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n s .
P r o j e c t FormuLat i o n
The s t r a t e g y %or performing a reconnaissance s tudy is f i r s t t o perform
a pre l iminary economic a n a l y s i s and then i d e n t i f y and a s s e s s t h e i s s u e s
t h a t may b e c r i t i c a l t o inp lanenta t ion . The components i d e n t i f i e d as
important in reconnaissance s t u d i e s a r e shown i n F igu re 2. The forraulat2on
of p r o j e c t f e a t u r e s and de termina t ton of c o s t s w a s determined t o b e a
cr i t ical and major task . me recomnencled p r o j e c t formula t ion s t r a t e g y is
t o s e l e c t several i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t i e s , say a t 35%, 25% and 35% f low
exceedance v a l ~ e s , and c a r r y these through the pre l iminary ecsnomfc a n a l y s i s .
The procedures devel.oped f o r p e r f o r m l ~ g the c o s t escimates f o r eonstruct i .on,
s i t e . acquisi , t ion, ope ra t ion and ma3ntenance, and engiaser ing and administra--
t5an f o r tIze r"easih2li'cy szudy were judged t o be too d e t a i l e d f o r a
reconnaissance s tudy. To f a c i l i t a t e reconnaissance e s t ima te s , t h e information
f o r the f e a s i b i l i t y a n a l y s i s was consol ida ted i n t o one c h a r t and t a b l e .
F igu re 3 provides a b a s i s f o r e s t ima t ing t h e major s h a r e of c o n s t r u c t i o n
c o s t s f o r i t e m s t h a t a r e governed by c a p a c i t y and head, e.g. , t u r b i n e and
genera tor , powerhouse, and suppor t ing e l ec t r i ca l /mechan ica l equipment. The
f i g u r e was developed by s tudying t h e gene ra to r and powerhouse c o s t s f o r a
v a r i e t y of t u r b i n e types f o r a complete set of headlcapac i ty va lues . Table 1
con ta ins reconnaissance c o s t f a c t o r s f o r penstock, t a i l r a c e , switchyard
equipment, and t r a n m i s s i o n l i n e . The u s e r i s caut ioned t h a t t h e l e a s t
c o s t c r i t e r i a governed so t h a t s i te i s s u e s of space and conf igu ra t ion , and
gene ra t ion i s s u e s of performance ranges were n o t considered. The d a t a ,
however, should be adequate f o r reconnaissance e s t ima te s . An a d d i t i o n a l
a l lowance of up t o 20% should b e added t o the c o s t determined t o cover
investment items t h a t a r e not incorpora ted in the c h a r t and t a b l e such a s
l and acqu i s t i ons , acces s roads, and s p e c i a l c o n t r o l equipment. P r o j e c t s
approaching t h e upper limits of c a p a c i t y (l5W) probably warrant u s ing the
more d e t a f l e d and s p e c i f i c c h a r t s i n the manual even f o r the reconnaissance
estimate,
Stnce reconnaissance c o s t estimates are a l s o needed f o r t h e nonphysical
works c o s t items, a n al lowance f o r unforseen conti .ngencies ranging from
10% t o 20% should be added t o t h e sum of t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t , t h e v a l u e
EFFECTIVE HEAD ( F T )
I . Estimated costs are based upon a typical or standardized turbine coupled to a generator either directly or through a speed increaser, depending on the type turbine used.
2. Costs include turbine/generator and appurtenant equipment, station electric equipment, miscellaneous powerplant equipment, powerhouse, powerhouse excavation, switchyard civil works, an upstream slide gate, and construction and instal lation.
3. Costs not included are transmission 1 ine, penstock, tailrace con- struction,. swi tchyard equipment.
4. Cost base July 1978.
5. The transition zone occurs as unit types change due to increased head.
6. For a Multiple Unit powerhouse, additional station equipment costs
Figure 3. Power Features Cost - Reconnaissance
[Vol. 1 H E C , 1979)
TABLE 'I
MISCELLANEOUS RECONNAISSANCE ESTIMATE COSTS*
PENSTOCK COST - --
E f f e c t i v e Head (Ft ) 1.0 2 0 5 0 100 200 300
Cost Index (CI) 960 480 200 11.0 55 35
I n s t a l l e d Cost = Cl x Penstock Length(f t ) x I n s t a l l e d Capacity(MW)
TAILRACE COST
Construction Cost = $1.5,000 f ixed p lus $200 per l i n e a l foo t
SWITCHYARD EOUIPMENT COST
(Thousand Dol lars)
P lan t Transmission Voltage
Capacity ---- 13.8 34.5 6 9 11 5
I M W 5 0 60 -- -- 3 MW 85 100 120 175
5 MW 110 125 150 210
10 MW 150 170 210 280
1 5 MW 185 220 250 320
TRANSMISSION LINE COST
(Thousand Doll.ars)
Plant Miles of t ransmiss ion l i n e
Capacity 1 - 2 5 10 15 --
* (Vol . 1 HEC, 1979)
depending upon a judgement a s t o t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s . I n d i r e c t c o s t s of
25% a r e recommended t o b e added f o r i n v e s t i g a t i o n , management, engzneering,
and admin i s t r a t ion c o s t s t h a t are needed t o implement t h e p r o j e c t and
cont inue i ts service. 0perati.on and maintenance c o s t s can va ry cons iderably
depending on p re sen t s t a f f resources of t h e pro j e c t proponent, t h e site
proximity t o o t h e r sites, and the intended degree of on - s i t e ope ra t ion
requirements . An annual va lue of 1.5% of t o t a l c o s t s i s suggested a s a b a s e
va lue ; however, tke v a l u e used sfiould n o t b e less than a b a s e va lue , suggested
as $20,000 p e r year and may range upwards of 4% i f the p r o j e c t proponents
can n o t e f f i c i e n t l y i n t e g r a t e the p lan t i n t o their work program.
Power Values -
The de termina t ion of va lue of power was an i t e m c a r e f u l l y considered
dur ing p repa ra t ion of the manual. The power va lue needed Is the va lue t h a t
t h e p r o j e c t proponent could reasonably expect t o r e c e i v e f o r the s a l e
of t h e genera ted energy and that of the dependab1.e capacr ty , i f any ex5sts.
A suggested procedure is t h a t reconnaissance va lues B e adopted from va lues
s o l i c i t e d f r o n t h e r e g i o n a l Federa l Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) o f f i c e
i n t h e c a s e of p o t e n t l a l sale t o u t l l . i t i e s , municipal organizat2,ons and
coope ra t ives , o r b e e x t r a c t e d from e x i s t i n g r a t e shcedules (avaluable from
l o c a l u t i l i t y o f f i c e s ) i n t h e c a s e of p o t e n t i a l sale t o a p r i v a t e i n d u s t r i a l
buyer. A benchmark va lue t h a t can o f t e n be used t o va lue energy is t h e f u e l
replacement c o s t t h a t i s r epor t ed by u t i l i t i e s t o t h e FERC Regional Of f i ce s .
A generous va lue i n t h e range of 20 t o 40 m i l l s per kWI.1 i s considered
r easonab le i n l i g h t of p r e s e n t l y e s c a l a t i n g f u e l and ope ra t ion c o s t s .
Economic F e a s i b i l i t y
Economic F e a s i b i l i t y i s p o s i t i v e when t h e b e n e f i t s exceeds t h e c o s t s .
The manual encourages adoption of t h e I n t e r n a l Rate of Return method of
c h a r a c t e r i z i n g p r o j e c t f e a s i b i l i t y . The I n t e r n a l Rate of Return i s t h e
d i scoun t rate a t which t h e b e n e f i t s and c o s t s a r e equal , e.g., t h e d iscount
r a t e a t which the Genef i t t o c o s t r a t i o is u n i t y . Use of the method avoids
the need a t t h e reconnaissance s t a g e t o adopt a d i scount r a t e and a l s o provides
a n a r r a y of economic f e a s i b i l i t y r e s u l t s . An example computation and
d i s p l a y is included in Figure 4. To perform t h e a n a l y s i s s e v e r a l d i scoun t
r a t e s a r e s e l e c t e d and the t o t a l investment c o s t i n annual ized f o r each
r a t e and added t o the annual opera t ion and maintenance c o s t t o o b t a i n t h e
t o t a l annual c o s t . The benef i.t is computed on an annual b a s i s by mul t ip ly ing
the y e a r l y genera t ion by the v a l u e of energy. A b e n e f i t t o c o s t r a t i o is
determined f o r each t o t a l annual ized c o s t which i s then p l o t t e d r e l a t i v e
t o its r e s p e c t i v e d iscount r a t e . A curve is drawn connect ing t h e p l o t t e d
p o i n t s and the Xnternal Rate of Return i s t h e d iscount r a t e where t h e curve
i n t e r s e c t s t h e l i n e r ep re sen t ing a b e n e f i t t o c o s t r a t i o of u n i t y Csee
example) .
FEASIB1LI.TY STUDY
The f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy is designed t o formula te a v i a b l e small hydro
p r o j e c t , develop an implementation s t r a t e g y , and provide the b a s i s f o r an
impl.ementation commitment . The a d d i t i o n of small hydropower genera t ion t o
an e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t y is, w i t h few except ions, a s i n g l e purpose p r o j e c t
planning t a s k . The s i g n i f i c a n t l e g a l , i n s t i t u t i o n a l , engineering, environ-
mental , marketing, economic and f i n a n c i a l a spec t s a r e t o b e i d e n t i f i e d ,
i n v e s t i g a t e d , and d e f i n i t i v e l y a s se s sed i n suppor t of an investment dec i s ion .
The o b j e c t i v e is t o formula te a power a d d i t i o n p r o j e c t that i s economically
a t t r a c t i v e and c o n s i s t e n t w i t h modern concepts of resource planning and
management. The f i n d i n g s of a f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy should be whethex o r n o t
a commitment t o implementation i,s warranted, and should the f i n d i n g b e
p o s i t i v e , d e f i n e t h e s t e p s needed t o a s s u r e implementation.
The s e l e c t i o n of t h e i n s t a l l e d capac i ty , t h e number of u n i t s , and t h e
suppor t ing a n c i l l a r y phys i ca l works a r e t h e s p e c i f i c o b j e c t i v e of p r o j e c t
formula t ion . The t a r g e t of small hydro p r o j e c t formulat ion is t o develop
one o r more proposals t h a t have t h e g r e a t e s t economic va lue c o n s i s t a n t
w i t h t h e a r r a y of c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t modify t h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s of a pu re ly
economic formulati,on. Twa i s s u e s were s ing led o u t f o r expanded d i scuss ion
i n t h e f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy sect i ,on of the manual. hey were ref inement of
a l t e r n a t i v e s and development of c o s t s f o r b o t h the economic and f i n a n c i a l
a n a l y s i s .
PLANT CHARACTERISTICS:
RUN OF RIVER
Head = 9 0 f e e t Penstock = 115 f e e t Capac i t y = B MW Transmiss ion L i n e = 2.5 mi 1 e s Q 34.5 kV E f f i c i e n c y = 90% Economic L i f e = 50 y e a r s Dependabl e Capaci t y = 0 MW E v a l u a t i o n Date = J u l y 19z9 Tai 1 race = 250 f e e t Average Year1 y Energy Generated = 35 x 1 0 kwh
INVESTMENT COST: ($1,000)
Turb ine . Genera tor and C i v i 1 ( F i g u r e 4-21 2,000
A d d i t i o n a l S t a t i o n Equipment (Mu1 t i - U n i t ) None Requ i red
Penstock (Tab1 e 8-21 (128 x 115 x 8 ) 118
T a i l r a c e ( T a b l e 4-21 (15 ,000) + I200 x 250) 65
Swi t c h y a r d Equipment ( T a b l e 9-21 ( 8 MW Q 34.5 kV) 152
Transmission L i n e ( 8 HW O 2.5 mi 1 es) 105
Darn R e h a b i l i t a t i o n [ I n t e g r i t y ) None Requi red
Other (Access, F i sh Passage, Mi s c e l laneous Si t e C o n s t r u c t i o n ) None Requ i red
SUBTOTAL 2.440
E s c a l a t i o n ( J u l y 78 t o J u l y 7 9 - F i g u r e 6-1, Vol . VI - Ra t i o : 2.5212.28) 2.697
Con t i ngenc ies a t 10%-20% (Used 15%) 40 5
SUBTOTAL 3.102 I n d i r e c t 25% 776
TOTAL INVESTMENT COST 3.877
ANNUAL COST: ($1,000)
Annua l ized lnves tment Cost i s a f u n c t i o n o f d i s c o u n t r a t e and economic l i f e o f a p r o j e c t and i s computed by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e T o t a l lnves tment Cost by t h e C a p i t a l Recovery F a c t o r f o r t h e d i s c o u n t r a t e and economic l i f e se lec ted . See T a b l e Below
Opera t i on and Main tenance (O&M) Cost = ($20.000 Minimum o r 1.5%-4%) (Used 3 % ) 116
TOTAL. ANNUAL COST (Sum o f Annua l i zed lnves tment Cost and O&M Cos t ) = See T a b l e Below
BENEFIT ESTIMATE:
Capac i ty Benef i t [Dependable Capaci t y x Va lue o f Capac i ty ) = None
Energy B e n e f i t (Average Annual Energy Generated x Value o f Energy) = See Tab le Below
TOTAL ANNUAL BENEFIT (Sum o f C a p a c i t y B e n e f i t and Energy B e n e f i t ) = See T a b l e Below
I NOTES:
C O S T A N D B E N E F I T C O M P U T A T I O N T A B L E
t a l Recovery Factor x To ta l lnvestment Cost ($3.8771.
' ~ n n u a l i zed lnvestment Cost +. O&M Cost (5116).
' ~ o t a l Annual Cost f Average Annual Energy Generated (35x106kWh).
'Average Annual Energy Generated (35x106kWh) x Value o f Energy (taken as 22 m i 1 ls/kWh) p lus the Capaci t y Benef i t (equal t o zero f o r t h i s exarnpl e l .
'Total Annual Bene f i t ($770) - Tota l Annual Cost.
6Total Annual Benef i t ($770) f Total Annual Cost.
I
I Dl SWUNT ( lNTEREsT)
RATE (%)
12
14
16
18
20
~ i g u r e 4. ~econnaissance economic feasibility example (Vol 1,HEC 1979)
11
CAPITAL RECOVERY
-12042
. l W 2 0
.I6010
-18005
-20002
ANNUALIZED
iNvgGpT ($1 ,000)
467
544
621
698
775
TOTAL ANNuAk
COST ($1 ,000)
583
660
7 37
8 14
891
BRE*I( EVM ENERGY V A U E ~ (Mi 1 l s / k W
16.7
18.9
21.1
23- 3
25-5
B/C
1.32
1.17
1.04
0.95
0-86
TOTAL
($1 ,000)
770
77 0
770
770
770
N ET B ~ E F I T5 ($1 ,000)
187
110
33
4 4
-121
12 14 16 18 20
DISCOUNT RATE ( % ) ( I n t e r e s t R a t e )
r --- - ---
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN:
The Rate o f Re tu rn on I nves tmen t i s t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e a t which t he p r e s e n t wo r th o f annual b e n e f i t s equa l s t h e p r e s e n t wo r th o f annual c o s t s (Wet B e n e f i t s equal t o zero o r Bene f i t / C o s t R a t i o equal t o u n i t y ) . The i n t e r n a l Rate o f Re tu rn i s 16.8%.
BREAK EVEN ENERGY VALUE:
A s i m i l a r a l t e r n a t i v e r e t u r n t y p e graph i s p resen ted h e r e based on t h e concept o f t he Break Even Energy Value. T h i s i s t he v a l u e o f energy ( m i l l s / k W h ) wh ich makes annual c o s t s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e annua l re - tu rn . I t i s de te rm ined by d i v i d i n g t h e Average Y e a r l y Gene ra t i on (kwh) i n t o t h e T o t a l Annual Cost ( $ 1 f o r each d i s c o u n t r a t e s e l e c t e d as shown i n t h e t a b l e above. A t 22 m i l l s / kWh, t h e Rate o f R e t u r n i s iden t i c a l t o t h a t d e r i v e d above.
26
24
W, 3
2 : 22 >.
rn = - - " - 5 -- 20 I ==,
W
18
16 k'l 1 1 t600z 12 14 16 18 2 0
DISCOUNT RATE ( % ) ( I n t e r e s t R a t e )
Figure 4 continued. Reconnaissance economic feasibility example
1 2
- - 900 L PZ: 3 I- W CT
- so0 2
---
z L Z
u I1
700 0 v
- J u a Z
Refinement of A l t e r n a t i v e s
The s f g n i f i c a n t i n t e r a c t i n g f a c t o r s i n t h e formulat ion of a small hydro
pro j ec t a r e the n a t u r e of f low/head a v a i l a b i l i t p , the performance cha rac t e r -
i s t i c s of the t u r b i n e equipment, and t h e powerhouse s t r u c t u r e needed t o
accommodate the s p e c i f i c genera t ing equipment. The amount of energy that
can be generated is dependent upon the range of f low t h a t can b e passed
through the t u r b i n e and upon the head v a r i a t i o n . The range of flow t h a t
can b e u t i l i z e d i s t h e r e f o r e a func t ion of t h e i n s t a l l e d capac i ty , t ype of
t u r b i n e (operat ing range and e f f i c i e n c y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ) , and t h e number of
u n i t s . Each of t h e s e v a r i a b l e s a f f e c t s t h e s i z e and shape of t h e powerhouse.
A p r o j e c t formulat ion s t r a t e g y t h a t progresses through t h r e e p rog res s ive
s t a g e s of f e a t u r e s i z i n g and s e l e c t i o n i s suggested. The f i r s t s t a g e ,
e s s e n t i a l l y performance of a reconnaissance formulat ion a s d iscussed previous ly ,
y i e l d s a prelinuinary e s t i m a t e of the p r o j e c t i n s t a l l e d capac i ty . The second
s t a g e inco rpora t e s machine performance c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t h e formula t ion
of s e v e r a l r e f i n e d a l t e r n a t i v e s and y i e l d s a s e l e c t i o n of t h e number and
type of t u r b i n e u n i t s t h a t thus cons ider s i t e cond i t i ons and t r a d e o f f s
between u n i t performance and energy generated. The f i n a l , s t a g e concludes
the p r o j e c t formulat ion by examining t h e performance of t h e more promising
one o r more a l t e r n a t i v e s in a s e q u e n t i a l power rou t ing a n a l y s i s .
Hydrologic parameters p lay an important p a r t i n ref inement of a l t e r n a t i v e s .
I n i t i a l l y and dur ing t h e f i r s t s t a g e , and perhaps t h e second, flow-duration
techniques a r e judged t o be gene ra ly adequate. Duration cu rve a n a l y s i s
r e q u i r e s t h e u s e of a s i n g l e va lue (weighted) f o r head and a s i n g l e va lue
(average) f o r e f f i c i e n c y . Refinement occurs w i th t h e u s e of a cont inuous
record of s t ream f low and performance of s equen t i a l power rou t ings . This
procedure a s s u r e s t h a t important s equen t i a l i s s u e s of vary ing upstream and
downstream water l e v e l s , machine performance, and flow passage by t h e s i t e
are proper ly incorpora ted i n t h e a n a l y s i s . The more complete s imu la t ion
w i l l t r a c e t h e t u r b i n e performance and may r e s u l t i n s l i g h t l y h ighe r o r
lower power and energy ou tpu t e s t ima te s . The a r r a y of r e f i n e d p r o j e c t
formula t ions a r e then subjec ted t o f u l l f e a s i b i l i t y a n a l y s i s .
Economic Analysis Cost Consideration.
I:n the manual, economic and f i n a n c i a l a n a ' l y ~ i s have been c a r e f u l l y
def ined a s having d i s t i n c l y d i f f e r e n t purposes, and consequent ly, d i s t i n c t l y
d i f f e r e n t (al though v e r y much s i m i l a r ) c o s t da t a . Ec0nomi.c f e a s i b i l i t y
ana1,ysis compares economic c o s t s w i t h p r o j e c t economic b e n e f i t s wh i l e
f i n a n c i a l f e a s i b i l i t y a n a l y s i s develops t h e s p e c i f i c ca sh f low and a s s e s s e s
f inanc ing and repayment i s s u e s . The economic comparison i s p rope r ly made
us ing a common v a l u e base, (e.g., d o l l a r ava lues as of t h e s tudy y e a r ) .
Federa l government p o l i c i e s have g e n e r a l l y r e s u l t e d i n f i x i n g p r i c e l e v e l s
f o r valuing f u t u r e c o s t s and b e n e f i t s i n v a l u e terms as of the s tudy d a t e
a s w e l l and t h e t h e frame commbnly used for c o a t / b e n e f i t a n a l y s i s beg ins t h e
f i r s t y e a r of p r o j e c t ope ra t ion and extends through the p r o j e c t economic
l i f e . The a l t e r n a t i v e convention o f t e n adopted i n t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r i s
t o state a l l p r o j e c t c o s t s and b e n e f i t s i n d o l l a r v a l u e s a s of the i n i t i a l
y e a r of ope ra t ion , S ince s m a l l hydro p r o j e c t s a r e expected t o be implemented
i n s h o r t t ime frames, the t i m e and year s ta tement of d o l l a r v a l u e s should
n o t be ~ r i t f ~ c a l .
The i n c l u s i o n of c o s t and v a l u e changes i n economic f e a s i b i l i t y
a n a l y s i s must b e handled w i t h ca re . i3 p r i n c i p l e , a p r i c e level change
economic a n a l y s i s should f o r e c a s t t h e change i n va lue f o r a l l a s p e c t s of the
f e a s i b i l i t y assessment, b o t h t h e c o s t s2de and i t s several components, and
t h e b e n e f i t s i d e Ce.g., a l t e r n a t i v e f u e l c o s t s ) and i t s several components.
The c o s t and b e n e f i t s t reams are then cons t ruc t ed from t h e s e f o r e c a s t s and
t h e f e a s i b i l i t y assessment performed. The usua l r e s u l t of i nc lud ing c o s t
and v a l u e e s c a l a t i o n i n p r o j e c t s such a s s m a l l hydro ( l a r g e i n i t i a l c o s t
followed by s m a l l 0 & My and long s t ream of p r o j e c t b e n e f i t s ) is t o make
them appear more economically a t t r a c t i v e , e.g. , b e n e f i t s grow w i t h t i m e w h i l e
c o s t s i n c r e a s e s l i g h t l y based on 0 & M. The impetus f o r inc luding v a l u e
changes i s t h e conv ic t ion t h a t b e n e f i t s wil .1 cont inue t o r i .se knowing t h a t
some b e n e f i t elements a r e i nc reas ing more rapidly than t h e gene ra l i n f l a t i o n
r a t e , e.g., f o s s i l f u e l c o s t s . The argument i s t h a t ignor ing t h e s e v a l u e
s h i f t s l e a d s t o i n c o r r e c t dec i s ions , (e.g., t h e p r o j e c t may appear i n f e a s i b l e
when it should b e found t o be f e a s i b l e ) even though t h e o r e t i c a l l y , (Eowe, 1971)
i r lc lusion of general p r i c e rise [ i n f l a t i o n , no t d i f f e r e n t i a l c o s t e s c a l a t i o n )
does no t a f f e c t t h e f e a s i b i l i t y de te rmina t ion .
The argument a g a i n s t inc luding p r i c e l e v e l change and/or gene ra l c o s t
e s c a l a t i o n i n economic f e a s i b i l i t y a n a l y s i s i s t h a t change i n p r i c e fo re -
c a s t i n g is f r augh t w i t h p i t f a l l s t h a t a r e bo th i n s t i t u t i o n a l l y and technolo-
g i c a l l y dependent. The r e s u l t i n g a n a l y s i s t hus o f t e n becomes suspec t and a
cand ida t e f o r s u b j e c t i v e manipulat ion, i . e . , a means of j u s t i f y i n g p r o j e c t s .
I f c o s t and va lue change a n a l y s i s a r e adopted f o r t h e economic a n a l y s i s ,
cons ide rab le c a r e should b e taken t o r i g o r o u s l y observe t h e b a s i c p r i n c i p l e s
and t o document t h e c r i t i c a l va lue change f o r e c a s t s .
F inanc ia l Analysis Cost Considerat i o n s
F b a n c t a l f e a s i B i l i t y a n a l y s i s develops, among o t h e r d a t a , t h e s p e c i f i c
c a s h f l o w c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Cdollars Cn and o u t of the accounts) of the p r o j e c t .
The need i s t o f o r e c a s t the amount and t iming of c a s h ou t f low and revenue
income a s a c c u r a t e l y as poss ib l e . The cash f low a n a l y s i s is u s u a l l y cons t ruc t ed
f o r the p r o j e c t implementation per iod , t h e f i r s t year of ope ra t ion o f t e n
be ing c r i t i c a l . t o p r o j e c t ca sh reserves. To perform t h e a n a l y s i s , t h e
c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s are indexed t o t h e a c t u a l d a t e of c o n t r a c t award; i n t e r e s t
du r ing c o n s t r u c t i o n i s added a long w i t h r e c u r r i n g c o s t s (opera t ions and
maintenance) e s c a l a t e d based on increased c o s t s t o s e r v i c e aging equipment
and on an t ic i -pa ted general c o s t i n f l a t i o n ; and t h e revenue s t ream i s
a d j u s t e d based on a n t i c i p a t e d power s a l e c o n t r a c t p rov i s ions f o r payment
of p r o j e c t power. I f t h e r e were no c o s t i n f l a t i o n , no borrowing r equ i r ed ,
and i f p r o j e c t revenues captured a1.l. p r o j e c t b e n e f i t s exac t ly , t h e economic
c o s t and b e n e f i t streams and t h e f i n a n c i a l c o s t and revenue cash f low
streams would b e i d e n t i c a l .
TIME, COST, AND RESOURCES FOR FEASTBILTTY AND RECONNAISSANCE STUDIES
The time, c o s t s , and manpower r e sou rces r equ i r ed t o perform reconnais-
sance and f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d i e s f o r s m a l . 1 h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p l a n t a d d i t i o n s
v a r i e s depending on expected p l a n t s i z e , s i te condi t ions , s p e c i f i c scope
and depth of s tudy, and a v a i l a b i l i t y of information (bas ic d a t a and p r i o r
s t u d i e s ) . Each of t h e f i v e suppor t ing volumes i n t h e manual provides genera l
guidance on t h i s t o p i c i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s u b j e c t a r e a s . The American
Soc ie ty of Civil Engineers has publ ished gene ra l gu ide l ines f o r compensation
f o r the performance of engineering s e r v i c e s (ASCE, 1972). Analysis of
t h e s e g u i d e l i n e s i n l i g h t of r e c e n t f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy experience sugges ts
t h a t f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy c o s t s , no t ing t h e f a i r l y s p e c i a l i z e d n a t u r e of
s eve ra l of t h e i s s u e s important t o smal l hydro, should range from 1.5%
t o 3% of es t imated cons t ruc t ion c o s t . Reconnaissance s t u d i e s , "mini
f e a s i b i l i t y s tud ies" , es t imated a s 10% of f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy c o s t s , would
t h e r e f o r e range from 0.15% t o 0.3% of es t imated cons t ruc t ion c o s t . A
reconnaissance s tudy f o r a 1 MW p l a n t might c o s t approximately $3,000 ( o r
about 10-15 man-days) and f o r a 1 5 MW p l a n t , perhaps $12,000 (45 t o 60 man-days).
Using 2.5% a s conse rva t ive e s t ima te f o r f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy c o s t s r e s u l t s
i n s tudy c o s t s ranging from $25,000 (80 t o 110 man-days) f o r a 1 MW p l a n t t o
$150,000 (600 t o 750 man-days) f o r t h e l a r g e r p l a n t s . The t i m e r equ i r ed t o
perform t h e f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy could range from 60 days f o r t h e s m a l l ,
r e l a t i v e l y s imple power a d d i t i o n t o upwards of 6 t o 9 months f o r l a r g e r more
complex p r o j e c t s .
The p a r t i c i p a t i n g p ro fe s s iona l s f o r a f e a s i b i l i t y s tudy inc lude c i v i l ,
e l e c t r i c a l and mechanical engineers , power economists, and e s p e c i a l l y f o r
p r i v a t e proponent p r o j e c t s , t h e s e r v i c e s of f i n a n c i a l s p e c i a l i s t s . P r o j e c t s
t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t l y al ter t h e f low regime o r phys i ca l environment w i l l l i k e l y
need t h e s e r v i c e s of water q u a l i t y and f i s h and wi ld l i f e s p e c i a l i s t s . The
p a r t i c i p a t i n g p ro fe s s iona l s f o r a reconnaissance s tudy would l i k e l y inc lude
c i v i l , mechanical, and e l e c t r i c a l engineer , and power economist f o r l a r g e r
proposed p r o j e c t s . Reconnaissance i n v e s t i g a t i o n s of smal le r p r o j e c t s may
requi re lmore v e r s i t i l i t y i n fewer p ro fe s s iona l such a s , experienced engineer
and economist.
STATUS OF MANUAL
The manual is p r e s e n t l y ( Ju ly 1979) undergoing f i n a l e d i t i n g , type-
s e t t i n g , and p r i n t i n g . P r i o r i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n is planned f o r l a t e August and
gene ra l pub l i c d i s t r i b u t i o n i n October.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The manual preparat ion was the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y of t h e Hydrologic Engineering
Center, B i l l S. Eichert , Director . The Corps I n s t i t u t e f o r Water Resources
sponsored tha manual prepara t ion a s a complementary t a sk to t h e management
of t h e National Hydropower Plan a c t i v i t i e s f o r which they a r e responsible.
The Department of Energy provided funding support under t h e i r small s c a l e
hydropower commercialization program. The preparat ion of t h e manual was
a j o i n t e f f o r t by s t a f f of t h e HEC and severa l p r i v a t e consul tants . The
principal-in-charge w a s M r . Darryl Davis of the HEC. The "Technical Guide"
volume was wr i t t en by t h e principal-in-charge aided by M r . Brian Smith, a
member of h i s s t a f f . The "Hydrologic Studies" volume was w r i t t e n by M r .
Dale Burnett of t h e HEC aided by h i s s t a f f . The remaining volumes w e r e
prepared under con t rac t t o t h e HEC a s follows: "Civil Features" and "Electro-
mechanical Features" - Tudor Engineering Co . , San Francisco, CA; "Existing
F a c i l i t i e s In tegr i ty" - W. A. FJahl.er & Assoc., Palo Alto, CA; "Economic and
Financial Analysis" - Development and Resources Corporation, Sacramento, CA.
REFERENCES
1. American S o c i e t y of C i v i l Engineers, ASCE Manuals and Reports on Engineer- ing P r a c t i c e , "No. - 45, Consul t ing Engineer ing . . . A Guide for t h e Engagement o f Engineer ing Se rv i ce s ,'I 1972.
2 . 95 th Congress, 2nd Sess ion , PT, 9.5-617, "Publ ic U t i 1 i t i . e ~ Regulatory P o l i c i e s Act," November 1978.
3 - Howe, Charles W., "Benefi t Cost Analys i s f o r Water System Planning", American Geophysical Union, Water Resources Monograph 2 , 1971.
4 . The Hydrologic Engineer ing Center (HEC), Davis, CA., 95616, F e a s i b i l i t y S t u d i e s f o r Small Hydropower Addi t ions , 6 Volumes, J u l y 1979. -
Technical Paper Series TP-1 Use of Interrelated Records to Simulate Streamflow TP-2 Optimization Techniques for Hydrologic
Engineering TP-3 Methods of Determination of Safe Yield and
Compensation Water from Storage Reservoirs TP-4 Functional Evaluation of a Water Resources System TP-5 Streamflow Synthesis for Ungaged Rivers TP-6 Simulation of Daily Streamflow TP-7 Pilot Study for Storage Requirements for Low Flow
Augmentation TP-8 Worth of Streamflow Data for Project Design - A
Pilot Study TP-9 Economic Evaluation of Reservoir System
Accomplishments TP-10 Hydrologic Simulation in Water-Yield Analysis TP-11 Survey of Programs for Water Surface Profiles TP-12 Hypothetical Flood Computation for a Stream
System TP-13 Maximum Utilization of Scarce Data in Hydrologic
Design TP-14 Techniques for Evaluating Long-Tem Reservoir
Yields TP-15 Hydrostatistics - Principles of Application TP-16 A Hydrologic Water Resource System Modeling
Techniques TP-17 Hydrologic Engineering Techniques for Regional
Water Resources Planning TP-18 Estimating Monthly Streamflows Within a Region TP-19 Suspended Sediment Discharge in Streams TP-20 Computer Determination of Flow Through Bridges TP-21 An Approach to Reservoir Temperature Analysis TP-22 A Finite Difference Methods of Analyzing Liquid
Flow in Variably Saturated Porous Media TP-23 Uses of Simulation in River Basin Planning TP-24 Hydroelectric Power Analysis in Reservoir Systems TP-25 Status of Water Resource System Analysis TP-26 System Relationships for Panama Canal Water
Supply TP-27 System Analysis of the Panama Canal Water
Supply TP-28 Digital Simulation of an Existing Water Resources
System TP-29 Computer Application in Continuing Education TP-30 Drought Severity and Water Supply Dependability TP-31 Development of System Operation Rules for an
Existing System by Simulation TP-32 Alternative Approaches to Water Resources System
Simulation TP-33 System Simulation of Integrated Use of
Hydroelectric and Thermal Power Generation TP-34 Optimizing flood Control Allocation for a
Multipurpose Reservoir TP-35 Computer Models for Rainfall-Runoff and River
Hydraulic Analysis TP-36 Evaluation of Drought Effects at Lake Atitlan TP-37 Downstream Effects of the Levee Overtopping at
Wilkes-Barre, PA, During Tropical Storm Agnes TP-38 Water Quality Evaluation of Aquatic Systems
TP-39 A Method for Analyzing Effects of Dam Failures in Design Studies
TP-40 Storm Drainage and Urban Region Flood Control Planning
TP-41 HEC-5C, A Simulation Model for System Formulation and Evaluation
TP-42 Optimal Sizing of Urban Flood Control Systems TP-43 Hydrologic and Economic Simulation of Flood
Control Aspects of Water Resources Systems TP-44 Sizing Flood Control Reservoir Systems by System
Analysis TP-45 Techniques for Real-Time Operation of Flood
Control Reservoirs in the Merrimack River Basin TP-46 Spatial Data Analysis of Nonstructural Measures TP-47 Comprehensive Flood Plain Studies Using Spatial
Data Management Techniques TP-48 Direct Runoff Hydrograph Parameters Versus
Urbanization TP-49 Experience of HEC in Disseminating Information
on Hydrological Models TP-50 Effects of Dam Removal: An Approach to
Sedimentation TP-51 Design of Flood Control Improvements by Systems
Analysis: A Case Study TP-52 Potential Use of Digital Computer Ground Water
Models TP-53 Development of Generalized Free Surface Flow
Models Using Finite Element Techniques TP-54 Adjustment of Peak Discharge Rates for
Urbanization TP-55 The Development and Servicing of Spatial Data
Management Techniques in the Corps of Engineers TP-56 Experiences of the Hydrologic Engineering Center
in Maintaining Widely Used Hydrologic and Water Resource Computer Models
TP-57 Flood Damage Assessments Using Spatial Data Management Techniques
TP-58 A Model for Evaluating Runoff-Quality in Metropolitan Master Planning
TP-59 Testing of Several Runoff Models on an Urban Watershed
TP-60 Operational Simulation of a Reservoir System with Pumped Storage
TP-61 Technical Factors in Small Hydropower Planning TP-62 Flood Hydrograph and Peak Flow Frequency
Analysis TP-63 HEC Contribution to Reservoir System Operation TP-64 Determining Peak-Discharge Frequencies in an
Urbanizing Watershed: A Case Study TP-65 Feasibility Analysis in Small Hydropower Planning TP-66 Reservoir Storage Determination by Computer
Simulation of Flood Control and Conservation Systems
TP-67 Hydrologic Land Use Classification Using LANDSAT
TP-68 Interactive Nonstructural Flood-Control Planning TP-69 Critical Water Surface by Minimum Specific
Energy Using the Parabolic Method
TP-70 Corps of Engineers Experience with Automatic Calibration of a Precipitation-Runoff Model
TP-71 Determination of Land Use from Satellite Imagery for Input to Hydrologic Models
TP-72 Application of the Finite Element Method to Vertically Stratified Hydrodynamic Flow and Water Quality
TP-73 Flood Mitigation Planning Using HEC-SAM TP-74 Hydrographs by Single Linear Reservoir Model TP-75 HEC Activities in Reservoir Analysis TP-76 Institutional Support of Water Resource Models TP-77 Investigation of Soil Conservation Service Urban
Hydrology Techniques TP-78 Potential for Increasing the Output of Existing
Hydroelectric Plants TP-79 Potential Energy and Capacity Gains from Flood
Control Storage Reallocation at Existing U.S. Hydropower Reservoirs
TP-80 Use of Non-Sequential Techniques in the Analysis of Power Potential at Storage Projects
TP-81 Data Management Systems of Water Resources Planning
TP-82 The New HEC-1 Flood Hydrograph Package TP-83 River and Reservoir Systems Water Quality
Modeling Capability TP-84 Generalized Real-Time Flood Control System
Model TP-85 Operation Policy Analysis: Sam Rayburn
Reservoir TP-86 Training the Practitioner: The Hydrologic
Engineering Center Program TP-87 Documentation Needs for Water Resources Models TP-88 Reservoir System Regulation for Water Quality
Control TP-89 A Software System to Aid in Making Real-Time
Water Control Decisions TP-90 Calibration, Verification and Application of a Two-
Dimensional Flow Model TP-91 HEC Software Development and Support TP-92 Hydrologic Engineering Center Planning Models TP-93 Flood Routing Through a Flat, Complex Flood
Plain Using a One-Dimensional Unsteady Flow Computer Program
TP-94 Dredged-Material Disposal Management Model TP-95 Infiltration and Soil Moisture Redistribution in
HEC-1 TP-96 The Hydrologic Engineering Center Experience in
Nonstructural Planning TP-97 Prediction of the Effects of a Flood Control Project
on a Meandering Stream TP-98 Evolution in Computer Programs Causes Evolution
in Training Needs: The Hydrologic Engineering Center Experience
TP-99 Reservoir System Analysis for Water Quality TP-100 Probable Maximum Flood Estimation - Eastern
United States TP-101 Use of Computer Program HEC-5 for Water Supply
Analysis TP-102 Role of Calibration in the Application of HEC-6 TP-103 Engineering and Economic Considerations in
Formulating TP-104 Modeling Water Resources Systems for Water
Quality
TP-105 Use of a Two-Dimensional Flow Model to Quantify Aquatic Habitat
TP-106 Flood-Runoff Forecasting with HEC-1F TP-107 Dredged-Material Disposal System Capacity
Expansion TP-108 Role of Small Computers in Two-Dimensional
Flow Modeling TP-109 One-Dimensional Model for Mud Flows TP-110 Subdivision Froude Number TP-111 HEC-5Q: System Water Quality Modeling TP-112 New Developments in HEC Programs for Flood
Control TP-113 Modeling and Managing Water Resource Systems
for Water Quality TP-114 Accuracy of Computer Water Surface Profiles -
Executive Summary TP-115 Application of Spatial-Data Management
Techniques in Corps Planning TP-116 The HEC's Activities in Watershed Modeling TP-117 HEC-1 and HEC-2 Applications on the
Microcomputer TP-118 Real-Time Snow Simulation Model for the
Monongahela River Basin TP-119 Multi-Purpose, Multi-Reservoir Simulation on a PC TP-120 Technology Transfer of Corps' Hydrologic Models TP-121 Development, Calibration and Application of
Runoff Forecasting Models for the Allegheny River Basin
TP-122 The Estimation of Rainfall for Flood Forecasting Using Radar and Rain Gage Data
TP-123 Developing and Managing a Comprehensive Reservoir Analysis Model
TP-124 Review of U.S. Army corps of Engineering Involvement With Alluvial Fan Flooding Problems
TP-125 An Integrated Software Package for Flood Damage Analysis
TP-126 The Value and Depreciation of Existing Facilities: The Case of Reservoirs
TP-127 Floodplain-Management Plan Enumeration TP-128 Two-Dimensional Floodplain Modeling TP-129 Status and New Capabilities of Computer Program
HEC-6: "Scour and Deposition in Rivers and Reservoirs"
TP-130 Estimating Sediment Delivery and Yield on Alluvial Fans
TP-131 Hydrologic Aspects of Flood Warning - Preparedness Programs
TP-132 Twenty-five Years of Developing, Distributing, and Supporting Hydrologic Engineering Computer Programs
TP-133 Predicting Deposition Patterns in Small Basins TP-134 Annual Extreme Lake Elevations by Total
Probability Theorem TP-135 A Muskingum-Cunge Channel Flow Routing
Method for Drainage Networks TP-136 Prescriptive Reservoir System Analysis Model -
Missouri River System Application TP-137 A Generalized Simulation Model for Reservoir
System Analysis TP-138 The HEC NexGen Software Development Project TP-139 Issues for Applications Developers TP-140 HEC-2 Water Surface Profiles Program TP-141 HEC Models for Urban Hydrologic Analysis
TP-142 Systems Analysis Applications at the Hydrologic Engineering Center
TP-143 Runoff Prediction Uncertainty for Ungauged Agricultural Watersheds
TP-144 Review of GIS Applications in Hydrologic Modeling
TP-145 Application of Rainfall-Runoff Simulation for Flood Forecasting
TP-146 Application of the HEC Prescriptive Reservoir Model in the Columbia River Systems
TP-147 HEC River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) TP-148 HEC-6: Reservoir Sediment Control Applications TP-149 The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS):
Design and Development Issues TP-150 The HEC Hydrologic Modeling System TP-151 Bridge Hydraulic Analysis with HEC-RAS TP-152 Use of Land Surface Erosion Techniques with
Stream Channel Sediment Models
TP-153 Risk-Based Analysis for Corps Flood Project Studies - A Status Report
TP-154 Modeling Water-Resource Systems for Water Quality Management
TP-155 Runoff simulation Using Radar Rainfall Data TP-156 Status of HEC Next Generation Software
Development TP-157 Unsteady Flow Model for Forecasting Missouri and
Mississippi Rivers TP-158 Corps Water Management System (CWMS) TP-159 Some History and Hydrology of the Panama Canal TP-160 Application of Risk-Based Analysis to Planning
Reservoir and Levee Flood Damage Reduction Systems
TP-161 Corps Water Management System - Capabilities and Implementation Status
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