experience with technology needs assessment, development and implementation william kojo...
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EXPERIENCE WITH TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND
IMPLEMENTATION
WILLIAM KOJO AGYEMANG-BONSU
NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE COORDINATOR
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, GHANA
ANNEX I EXPERT GROUP SEMINAR ON WORKING TOGETHER TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE
21-22 MARCH 2005, OECD HEADQUARTERS, PARIS, FRANCE
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
Elements of UNFCCC Technology Development and Transfer Framework
Ghana’s Technology Needs Assessment CFL Example Challenges Conclusions
Elements of UNFCCC Technology Development and Transfer Framework
1) Technology Needs Assessment Information needs Capacity building needs – institutional, human Assessment of enabling environment – systemic capacities, including
barriers and actions to overcome them Financing
2) Technology information3) Enabling Environment4) Capacity building5) Mechanisms for technology transfer – institutional and
financing aspects
Goals of the TNA
Contribute to global effort towards sustainable development and in particular the protection of the climate system.
Communicate to COP under UNFCCC and the global community Ghana’s climate change technology requirements.
Identify a portfolio of technology development and transfer programmes that have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to Ghana’s sustainable development
Identify, analyze and prioritize technologies that can form the basis for a portfolio of ESTs projects and programmes
Identify human, institutional and systemic capacity needs that ensure the smooth development, transfer and acquisition of ESTs
Enlist interest and commitment from key stakeholders and forge partnerships to support investment or barrier removal actions for purposes of enhancing the commercialization (or otherwise), and the diffusion of high priority technologies
Immediate Objectives
Stakeholders
Government Quasi-Government Business Associations Financial Institutions NGOs Research/Academia Development Partners
Resources for Ghana’s Needs Assessment
Major funding from UNDP/GEF
Technical support provided by NREL with funds from CTI/USDOE
Overview of Ghana’s Approach to Needs Assessment
Development of background documentation Stakeholder identification (national/international) Organization of scoping meeting/stakeholder consultations Establishment of Technology selection criteria Choosing sectors/sub-sectors for assessment Establishment of core/expert teams Prioritizations of technologies Holding donor consultations In-depth analysis Preparation of needs assessment report Development of technology transfer implementation plan Publication of TNA final report
Technology Priorities Setting
Selection Criteria Development benefits Market Potential Contribution Towards Mitigating
Climate Change Additional Attributes
Selection Criteria
Development benefits Job creation Wealth creation for the poor Capacity building Use of local resources Contribution to GDP growth Good effect on balance of trade Health Improvement Skills development
Market PotentialLevel of initial capital outlayAffordabilityInvestment sustainabilityLow maintenance – durabilityCommercial availability andReplicability
Selection Criteria
Contribution Towards Mitigating Climate Change
No or low GHG emissions Low potential for “leakage” Enhance sinks and waste recovery
Selection Criteria
Additional Attributes Able to meet other social need(s) and are
socially acceptable Promote international trade in the context of
north-south and south-south cooperation Promote sub-regional cooperation with respect
to optimization in use of resources for development
Selection Criteria
Contents of the Needs Assessment Report
Executive Summary Technology Transfer Implementation Plan – In-
depth Analysis National Environmental Context Technology Priorities Review of Legislative and Institutional
Framework Conclusions and Recommendations
Technology Implementation Plan – In-depth Analysis
Background of Technology - information Barriers to the development and transfer Suggested Actions to Remove Barriers
Ghana Actions Existing programmes and policies Additional actions
Actions expected from International Community
Expected results of technology transfer• Development, Economic and Social Benefits• Market Penetration and sustainability• GHG reduction and other environmental benefits
List of stakeholders• National• International (Informed by TT Clear website, CTI personal
communication and website) Capacity needs Recommendations for the creation of enabling
environment and general conclusions
Technology Implementation Plan – In-depth Analysis
Top Priority Technologies
Energy efficient lighting using compact fluorescent lamps
Industrial energy efficiency improvements – demand side management including power factor improvement and boiler efficiency enhancement
Methane gas capture from landfills Use of bio-fuels (jatropha)
Background
Power shortages Drought and low hydro availability Electricity rate reform
~100% retail rate increases in 2002 Lighting end use significant
One third of energy share Coincident with peak
CFL promotion as key part of response
Goals
Transform the Ghanaian lighting market from incandescent lamps to CFL
Reduce the risk of a power crisis Mitigate the impact of electricity price
hikes, on electricity consumers Reduce power demand and need for added
generation
Impacts
Easing of tight electricity supply situation Reduction in consumption of 350 MMkWh/year 170 MW reduction in peak load
Sustainable, self-financing transformation of lighting market in Ghana
Value to Ghana economy $10 million NPV (25% discount rate)
Eventual cash flow + $15 million per year
Organization
Initiative of Ghana Energy Foundation Integrated into Ghana’s Technology Transfer
Needs Assessment under the UNFCCC Ghana EPA lead organization VRA, ECG, Energy Commission, broad representation
of other Ghana stakeholders Technical support from NREL on behalf of Climate
Technology Initiative Ministry of Energy formed Committee on CFL
Promotion
Delivery Modes
Installation by task force members Initial emphasis on this mode
Retail sales by task force Sales through employers Sales through retail outlets
Cash Flow Summary(NPV at 25%)
Ghana NPV 10,146,000$ Consumer NPV 11,963,000$ Utility NPV (4,547,000)$
Tariff Revenue $2,730,000
Important utility benefits are omitted, e.g. deferred investments in new generation
Cash Flow ProfileSources of Cash Flow
$0$200$400$600$800
$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600
Jan-
03
Apr-0
3
Jul-0
3
Oct-0
3
Jan-
04
Apr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Oct-0
4
Jan-
05
Apr-0
5
Jul-0
5
Oct-0
5
Cash
Flo
w (0
00)
Carbon Credits
Reduction ingeneration cost
Cost Profile
Utility Costs
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
Cos
ts (0
00) CFL Retailing
Taxes
FOB bulb costs
Utility rebates to consumers
Financing
CFL installation Self financing $250,00 line of credit sought to cover initial
purchases
Public Awareness and Outreach $500,000 Grant financing sought
Global Assumptions
Unit price $2.64 wholesaleCFL power 14 W Replaced Incandescent 71 W % Savings rebated to consumers 81%Hours per day operated 4.5Marginal cost of electricity $0.05 /kWhValue of carbon credits 3 per ton CO2Bulb nominal lifetime 6000 hours of useStd. Deviation of life 25% of lifetimeRetail margin 8%
Reference Case Parameters
Customer Assumptions
Customer classFraction of all customers
Fraction of savings rebated
I: 0-50kWh/mo 60% 90%II: 51-300kWh/mo 30% 70%III: 301+ kWh/mo 10% 60%Average rebate over all customers 81%
Potential Policies
Residential, 0-50 kWh/moConsumers get 90% of Savings
$.34/mo/bulb
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
Average bill before Average bill after
Residential, 51-300 kWh/moConsumers get 70% of Savings
$.27/mo/bulb
$0.00
$2.00$4.00
$6.00$8.00
$10.00$12.00
$14.00
Average bill before Average bill after
Residential, 301+ kWh/mo$.23/mo - 60% of savings
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
Average bill before Average bill after
Bulb Pricing Assumptions
Average bulb
CFL wattage 12.5 18 23 14.1FOB price (from E.F.) $1.90 $2 $2.10 $1.93Taxes $0.70 $0.74 $0.78 $0.71Wholesale price $2.60 $2.74 $2.88 $2.64Fraction of bulbs sold 80% 10% 10%Wattage of replaced bulb 62.5 90 115 70.5
Bulb SurvivalAverage Lifetime 6,000 hours, Use 4.5 hrs/day
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Months of Service
Per
cen
t S
urv
ivin
g
Sensitivity to Bulb Lifetime
Breakeven Price (NPV=$11 million)
$0
$1
$2
$3
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
AverageBulb Lifetime
Pri
ce
CHALLENGES
Access to technology information Development of bankable project portfolios Developing implementation models and business
plans – capacity, barrier removal strategies Creation of the enabling environment for
sustained technology development and transfer, including market transformation
Building of business partnerships and identification of technology transfer intermediaries
CHALLENGES
“Distressed” international political will to discuss the issue of technology development and transfer (compared to e.g. CDM) as reflected under UNFCCC
Lack clear direction for engaging the private sector to promote cooperation and effective partnership development
Inadequate and uncertainties in financing options – where (under UNFCCC and other donor sources), when, what and how?
CONCLUSIONS
Technology needs assessment is the critical niche The weakest link of the technology development
and transfer chain is the mechanism for technology transfer - including financing
Technology transfer is not a formula but an innovative process, involving learning by doing
Therefore there is the need for joint research and development through partnerships that will address the fear of loss of IPRs
CONCLUSIONS
Opportunities for financing technology development and transfer arise from barrier identification and removal strategies identified during technology needs and needs assessment
Sustained partnership that is built on mutual trust and benefit sharing is crucial for technology transfer
There is need to work to reduce risk associated with needed technologies to make them marketable
Entrepreneurial skills development is required
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