europe’s forests and forestry in a changing climate part 2 ... · forests belonging to the...
Post on 17-Aug-2020
0 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
www.climatechangepost.comLatestupdate:22November2018
Europe’sforestsandforestryinachangingclimatePart2:Biodiversity
andhealth
Biodiversity
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
MediterraneanforestsBiodiversity
AmongallEuropeanregions,theMediterraneanappearsmostvulnerabletoglobalchange.Multiplepotentialimpactsarerelatedprimarilytoincreasedtemperaturesandreducedprecipitation.Theimpactsincludedwatershortages,increasedriskofforestfires,andnorthwardshiftsinthedistributionoftypicaltreespecies.AmajorconcernisraisedbythehighlyfragmentedconditionsofforeststandsintheMediterraneanzone;thelackof“green”connectionsandcorridorsintheMediterraneanlandscapemaybecomeveryharmfulinthefutureenvironmentifthepresentforestvegetationmayberequiredtomigratetowardsmoresuitableareas.
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
Portugal:Thereisatendencythatcurrentspeciesaredisplacedbythosewhicharemoretoleranttodrought,fromsouthtonorthandfrominlandtocoastalareas.Ariseintemperaturemayallowspeciessuchascorkoakandpinetoprosperathigheraltitudesexpandingtheirpotentialdistribution.Presently,inmorearidareas(forexampleininlandsouthernregions),theenvironmentallimitsforforestsurvivalmaybeexceeded;vegetationspeciesbetteradaptedtodroughtandhightemperatureswillbefavouredbyclimatechange,leadingtoanincreaseinbiomassproductivityinthenortherncountry(withgreaterincidenceinthecoastalcomparedtoinlandareas).
Montenegro:Theparticularlyvulnerableforestsincludespruceandbeechinthesubalpinebelt,beechandfirforestsbelongingtotheDinaricvegetationzone,andsub-Mediterraneanforestsofoakandhornbeam.InthesouthernandwesternareasofMontenegrofirstandsareparticularlythreatened.Climatechangecouldaffecttheexpansionofsub-Mediterraneandeciduousforests,bothtowardstheinteriorandtowardshigheraltitudes.
MediterraneanforestsBiodiversityExamplesacrossEurope
Italy:Theactualpossibilitiesfortheforestecosystemstoshiftarescarce,becauseclimatechangeratefarexceedstherateofcolonizationofnewareas,andthepotentialcorridorsareoftenobstructedbyhuman-inducedterritorialfragmentation.Hence,aprogressivedisruptionofforestecosystemscanbeexpected.Studiesindicateaprogressivedeclineofmountainhabitatsforhighaltitudeconifers(redfir,larch,Swisspine)infavourofbeech,oakchestnutanddeciduousoaks,whichrepresentsafirstclearsignofbreak-upoftheItalianforestheritage.
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
Extremeclimateeventshavehadamajorimpactontemperateforestsoverthelastdecade.Thecomplexinteractionsbetweenclimateandforestmanagementindeterminingsusceptibilitytoextremeeventsmakeitdifficulttounequivocallyattributetheseeventstorecentclimatewarming.
TemperateforestsBiodiversity
Therangesofnortherntemperateforestsarepredictedtoextendintotheborealforestrangeinthenorthandupwardonmountains.Thedistributionoftemperatebroadleavedtreespeciesistypicallylimitedbylowwintertemperatures.SincethelatterareprojectedtorisemorerapidlythansummertemperaturesinEuropeandNorthAmerica,temperatebroad-leavedtreespeciesmayprofitandinvadecurrentlyborealareasmorerapidlythanothertemperatespecies.Spruceisrelativelyvulnerabletoclimatechangeduetoitsshallowrootsystem.Europeanbeech,ontheotherhand,willsubstantiallygrowdueitsrelativelygoodadaptabilityandstresstolerance.
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
TemperateforestsBiodiversity
TheAlps:Inthelongterm,thecompositionofmanyforestsintheAlpswillchange.Thiswillbethecombinedresultofchangingclimaticconditionsandcase-by-casehumaninterventioninducedbytheimpactsofclimatechange,e.g.,afforestationwithbetteradaptedtreespeciesafterstorm,fire,droughteventsorinsectcalamities.Itisexpectedthattheshareofdeciduoustreeswillincreaseandconiferoustreesdecrease.Droughtresistantspeciesmayexpandrapidlybytheendofthiscentury.Thisconcernsextantspecies,speciesarrivingfromtheneighbouringMediterraneanregion,andalsoexoticsthathaveprogressivelyspreadintheSouthernAlpssincethe1970sdueinparttoincreasingwintertemperatures.Furthermore,broadleaftreesthataresensitivetolatefrostsduringbud-breakwillextendtheirrangeupward.
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
TemperateforestsBiodiversity
UK:Temperatedeciduousforestsandtemperate/borealmixedforestswillexpandandtemperateconiferandborealevergreenforestswillreduce.Underahighendscenarioofclimatechange,theareaoftemperateconiferforestisrestrictedtothehighlandsofScotland.
Estonia:NodrasticchangesareexpectedinthespeciescompositionofEstonianforestsoverthenext100-200years.Theintra-speciesgenomediversityprovidesadditionalflexibilitytohandletheresultsofawarmingclimateduringthenextcentury.
Poland:Oakproductionwilleitherremainthesameasnoworwillincrease.Futureproductionofbeechseemsuncertainandmightdecline,whilespruceproductionislikelytoincrease.
Slovakia:TheproportionofNorwaySpruceintotalcompositionofforestsisexpectedtodecreasefromthecurrent27%tolessthanhalfthispercentageduetoclimatechange.
Slovenia:InthesecondhalfofthiscenturyhighertemperaturesfavourgrowthofEuropeanbeech,incontrasttodrought-inducedgrowthreductionsinbothsilverfirandNorwayspruceconifers,especiallyatlowelevations.
Bulgaria:Atlowerelevationsdrought-sensitivespeciessuchasNorwaysprucewillprobablybereplacedbymoredrought-tolerantspeciessuchasScotspineandblackpine,andforestdiversitywilldecrease.
Hungary:Theappearanceofplantspeciesofsoutherncharacter,suchaseasternhornbeam,Turkeyoak,Hungarianoakisexpected.ThemostdisadvantageousclimaticchangesmaybeexperiencedbylowlandconiferousstandsaswealreadycanseeintheblackpineforestsoftheBalatonhills.
TheNetherlands:Sofarnodoomscenariosareforeseen.
Denmark:AmajorityofexistingtreespeciesthatthrivewelltodayareexpectedtopersistinDenmark,exceptforNorwayspruce.
Alps:AdaptationtoforthcomingclimatechangesmightnotrequireashiftintreespeciescompositionintheAlpsofGermanyandAustria.Thegeneticvariabilityofmostcommontreespeciesisprobablylargeenoughtoaccommodatethemeanchangesintemperatureandprecipitation.
ExamplesacrossEurope
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
Borealforests
Tundra
BorealforestsandtundraBiodiversity
Underawarmerclimate,itisexpectedthatthenorthernrangelimitsofmostnativetreespeciesinEuropewillexpand.Thesouthernboundaryofsomespecieswillshifttonorthspecificallyattheboundaryofsteppeandforestzones.Climateprojectionssuggestadisplacementofclimaticzonessuitableforborealforestsby150-550kmthiscentury.Thisshiftisfasterthantheestimatedpotentialofmanyspeciestomigrate(20-200kmpercentury)orthecapabilityofmanysoilstodevelopanewstructure.Coniferoustreesarelikelytoinvadetundraregionsunderwarmerconditions.By2100,suitableNorwaysprucehabitatswillberestrictedtothehigherelevationsincentralEuropeandtoareasinnorthernSweden,FinlandandNorway.Broadleavessuchasoakandbeechareexpectedtoshiftfromtoday'srangesinwesternEurope(France,Netherlands,Germany)andthelowerelevationsincentralandeasternEuropetocentral,northernandnorth-easternEurope.
Foresttype:
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
Norway:ThegeneticvariationinNorwegianforestsislarge,sothebasisfornaturalselectionshouldbefairlygood.SpeciesrequiringwarmsummerswillexpandattheexpenseofNorwayspruce,whileScotspine,usuallygrowingonshallowandnutrientpoorsoils,willbemorecompetitiveandstaymorestable.Themountainforestswillrespondgreatlyresultinginimprovedgrowthandreproduction.
BorealforestsandtundraBiodiversity
Finland:60-80%oftheforestsinsouthernFinlandmayconsistofbirchbytheyear2100.Norwaysprucewilldeclineinthesouth,butincreaseinthenorth.ThewarmingmayalsodecreasetheamountofScotspineinsouthernFinland.
Borealforests
Tundra
ExamplesacrossEurope
Foresttype:
Health
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
TemperateforestsHealthofforestecosystems
Theimpactofthesummerof2003toGermanforests:Intheyear2004,72%ofalltreesexhibiteddistinctcrowntransparencyorwereratedas“instageofalert”.Thiswasthehighestlevelofrecordeddamagesincethebeginningofforestdamageinventories.Forthefirsttime,themainreasonforthishighlevelofdamageisnotthoughttobepollution,buttheweatherconditionsinthehotanddry“recordsummer”of2003,anditsside-andafter-effects.Theseare• directdamagethroughdroughtandradiation;• damagethroughincreasedozonecontentoftheair,asa
consequenceofintensivesolarradiation;• thespreadofcalamitiesasaconsequenceofthemildwinterin
2003;• priordamagesthroughdirectweatherimpacts.
DroughtstressTheheatwaveinthesummerof2003showshowstronglyyieldpotentialcanbethreatenedbydroughtstress.Droughtandhightemperaturesledtoaneartotaldepletionofthewaterreservesinforestsoilsavailabletoplants.
LongtermeffectsDamagesthroughextremeweatherconditionssuchasintheyear2003cancontinuetohaveaneffectovermorethan10years,andcanleadtochangesingrowthtrendsinthelongterm,beyondactualreducedgrowthrates.In2003,theconnectionbetweendrought,heatandriskofpestinfestationbecamealsoapparent.Anexplosivepropagationofpests,particularlybarkbeetlesandnunmoths,wasaconsequenceofhightemperaturesanddecreasedvitalityofforestsin2003.
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
TemperateforestsHealthofforestecosystems
Alps–Airpollution:Duringthelastfewdecadesdifferentairpollutants(especiallyozone)haveleadtosignificantdamagetothemountainforests.TheaveragedamageratefortheentireAustrianforestareaamountsto33%withapproximately7%ofthetreesdamagedmoreseriously.Alps– Droughts:LargenumbersofScotspinearedyinginthedryinner-alpinevalleysoftheEuropeanAlps;inSwitzerland,locallyalmosthalftheScotspinepopulationhasdiedsince1995.Switzerland’stemperaturehasincreasedatmorethantwicetheglobalaverageinthe20thcenturyandmostofthisincreasehasoccurredduringthelast20years.Itwasshownthatthestrongclimaticwarmingthathasoccurredinrecentyearsmaywellbetheindirectcauseofthemortalityobservedintheseforests.Whereassingledroughtyearshadanegativeimpactontreegrowthwithasubsequentfastrecovery,multipledroughtyearsresultedinlong-lastinggrowthdepressions,laggedrecovery,andincreasedriskoftreedeath.Alps– Pestsanddiseases:ScotspinemortalityinValaisresultedfromthecombinedeffectsofdrought,pests,anddiseases.Likewise,theon-goingsprucedeclineinlow-elevationSwissforestswastriggeredbystormsandsubsequentbarkbeetleinfestationsandaggravatedbydrysummers.Alps– Forestsfires:Alsoforestfiresareaffectedbydrought.InregionslikethedryvalleysofthecantonofValais,thedrought-induceddiebackofpinesenhancestheamountofdeadwoodinforestsandthereforetheriskforforestfires.
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
TemperateforestsHealthofforestecosystems
WindthrowForeststandsdamagedbywindareespeciallyimportantprecursorstooutbreaksastheyquicklyprovidelargequantitiesofoptimalbreedingmaterial.Thusaprojectedincreaseinthewindstormfrequencycouldalsoescalatethebarkbeetlethreattoforestsinthefuture.
PestsClimatechangecouldchangethebehaviourofrelativelyunimportantpests,whichcancauselargedamagesinthefuture.Evensmalloscillationsintemperaturemighthaveextensiveimpactsonforests.Besidesthechangesindistributionsitesofpests,climatechangealsoinfluencesthenumberofrealizedgenerationswithinoneyear.Ifwarmingprolongsvegetationperiod,thenumberofgenerationsofseveralspeciesisexpectedtobehighertothenorthandinhigheraltitudes.
DroughtstressParticularlyinCentralEurope,anincreasedwaterscarcityinteractingwithclimate-sensitivepestdynamicshasbeenrecognizedasthemostsignificantclimatechange-relatedthreattoforests.Theoccurrenceofbarkbeetlesinfirandspruceforestsismostindicativeafterdryperiodswhenphysiologicallyweakenedtreesbecomeeasilyaccessibletobarkbeetlesassecondarypests.
HeatstressSprucebarkbeetleisthemostimportantforestinsectpestinEuropewhosedevelopmentisstrictlyregulatedbyairtemperature.Morefrequentheatwavesincreasethesprucesusceptibilitytobarkbeetleattacks.
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
TemperateforestsHealthofforestecosystems
Croatia:AirpollutionisoneofthestressfactorsleadingtothereducedvitalityanddryingofforestsinCroatia.Adirectcorrelationbetweenclimatechangesandtheappearanceofplantdiseasesandpestsonforesttreesintheperiod1996-2004hasbeenobservedinCroatia.
Moldova:Bytheendofthiscenturyclimatearidizationinespeciallythenorthernpartofthecountrymayentailparticularlyseriousdryingeffectswithpossiblegradualdisappearanceofforests.Inthenorthernparttheforestswilldryoutintenselyduringthiscentury.Itisquitelikelythatcurrentspeciesofforesttreesmaycompletelydisappear.
Romania:ThemainimpactsonRomanianforestsareanincreaseofaridityofthesouthernandplainareas,andofthehillareas;forestmigrationtohigheraltitudes;forestproductivitydecreaseafter2040,duetotemperatureincreaseprecipitationdecrease;morefrequentinsectattacks.
Belarus:• Ananthropogenicincreaseofnear-surfaceozoneconcentration
alonewasresponsiblefora15%reductionofbiomassgrowthofdeciduoustreesinthefirsthalfofthe1990sinsomecountriesofWesternandCentralEurope.ForBelarusthisreductionisestimatedat7-9%.
• Overwinteringconditionsforforestvegetationwillworsenduetoalackorshorterperiodofsnowcover.
• Certainsignsofgrowingmassbreedingspotsofforestpestsandanumberofinsectspeciesthatdoconsiderableharmtotreestandshavealreadybeenrecordedinthelastdecadeofthelastcenturyandearlythiscentury.
Slovakia:Increaseofdroughtandinsectdamageshaveoccurredoverthelastyears.Luxembourg:Therather“old”forestof
Luxembourghasdegradedamongotherfactorsduetoclimatechange.TheageingoftheforestalsoincreasestheriskofoutbreakofdiseasesandofinfestationbyinsectsandotherparasitesthatcouldproliferateifmoremildwintersandoverallgeneraltemperaturesarerecordedinLuxembourg.
Belgium:Beechstandshaverecentlybeeninvadedbytimber-boringinsects,theimpactofwhichwasthedestructionofmorethan10%ofstandingvolume.
ExamplesacrossEurope
www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com
BorealforestsandtundraHealthofforestecosystems
FortheforestsinnorthernEurope,thecombinationofraisedmeantemperatureandahigherfrequencyofextremeeventswillhavenegativeeffectsthatcouldultimatelybeofgreaterimportancethanthepositiveoutcomesofawarmerclimate.Theborealforests,forexample,maybeseverelyaffectedbysummerdryspellsanddroughts,makingtreesmoresusceptibletofrostdamage,windthrow,stormsandattacksbypestsanddiseases.Insectpestswillbenefitfromincreasedtemperaturesandthelongergrowingseason.Thismayincreasethenumberofinsectgenerationseachyear.AnincreaseinminimumtemperaturesinthewintercouldfacilitatethespreadofpestspeciesinScandinaviafromsouthtonorth.
Borealforests
Tundra
Foresttype:
www.climatechangepost.com
top related