eugene climate events since 2000

Eugene Climate EventsEugene Climate EventsSince 2000Since 2000

Not very many real anomalies Not very many real anomalies

El Nino/La Nina El Nino/La Nina ExpectationsExpectations

Do we see wet/dry hot/cold Do we see wet/dry hot/cold anomalies that line up with this anomalies that line up with this pattern – not convincinglypattern – not convincingly

‘‘heat waves”heat waves”

Cold SpellsCold Spells

These are subtle but statistically These are subtle but statistically valid:valid:

Excessive La Nina RainExcessive La Nina Rain

January 2006: 12.71 inchesJanuary 2006: 12.71 inches November 2006: 14.51 inchesNovember 2006: 14.51 inches January 2008: 8.54 inchesJanuary 2008: 8.54 inches March 2011:March 2011: 6.27 inches 6.27 inches And that’s about itAnd that’s about it

February Drought!February Drought!

2001: 1.772001: 1.77 2002:2002: 2.432.43 2003:2003: 2.472.47 2005:2005: 1.311.31 2008:2008: 1.741.74 5 “10 % events” in the 8 years5 “10 % events” in the 8 years

P(x) = 1 chance in 815

Feb Drought StopsFeb Drought Stops

Does not continue past 2008:Does not continue past 2008:

2009 – 4.76 inches2009 – 4.76 inches

2010 – 4.61 inches2010 – 4.61 inches

2011 -- 4.97 inches2011 -- 4.97 inches

2012 -- 4.05 inches2012 -- 4.05 inches

This is why identifying change is so difficult This is why identifying change is so difficult in the midst of cycles.in the midst of cycles.

March – June ChangesMarch – June Changes

2000 – 2009: 8.9 +/ 2.1 inches2000 – 2009: 8.9 +/ 2.1 inches 2010 – 2011: average = 15 inches2010 – 2011: average = 15 inches 15 – 8.9 = 6.115 – 8.9 = 6.1 6.1/2.1 = 2.9 = .2% probability6.1/2.1 = 2.9 = .2% probability Interesting but needs more years Interesting but needs more years

confirmation (2012 already is confirmation (2012 already is starting out with wet March)starting out with wet March)

Water Year Drought 2000-Water Year Drought 2000-2001:2001:

November 2000 November 2000 1.64 inches1.64 inches December 2000December 2000 4.15 inches4.15 inches January 2001January 20011.54 inches1.54 inches February 2001February 2001 1.77 inches1.77 inches TotalTotal 9.46 inches9.46 inches Expected TotalExpected Total 30.73 inches!!30.73 inches!!