ethar alali - agile yorkshire september 2015

Business Agility – The Inconvenient Truths

“What’s Wrong with Estimates?”

The Organogram

Who is “the Business”?

“Users”

“Customers”“Product Owners”

“Project Managers”

“Marketing”

“Sales”

“Finance”

“Other Businesses”

“Us”“My boss”

“My boss’ boss”

“Programme Managers”

“Shareholders”

“Stakeholders”

Who is “the Business”?

“Users”

“Customers”“Product Owners”

“Project Managers”

“Marketing”

“Sales”

“Finance”

“Other Businesses”

“My boss”

“My boss’ boss”

“Programme Managers”

“Shareholders”

“Stakeholders”

“Us”“Us”We’re in this together!

Game Time: The Name Game

Run 11. 5 volunteers

• 3 players, 1 timer, 1 writer

2. Spell one character from your name

3. Point at next person4. If no one to your left,

select the start person5. Finished name = raise hand6. Goto 2

Run21. 5 volunteers

– 3 players, 1 timer, 1 writer

2. Set n=03. Spell n-th character from

your name4. If finished:

• Point at next person

5. Else n++

Context Switching

Context switches are usually computationally

intensive, and much of the design of operating

organisational systems is to optimize the use of

context switches. Switching from one task to

another requires a certain amount of time for

doing the administration

Value is ALWAYS about flow!

Where does the work go?Customer Services Sales EngineeringHealth &

SafetyCustomer Services Engineering Credit Control

Reporting, Invoicing, PR,

Management…

Thousands to Millions of Value Transactions Each Week

Repo

rting

Val

ue 1

to 4

Tim

es p

er A

nnum

Where is Value Flow?

Actual Delivery

Source: Companies House

FTSE 100 Company Late Account Filing Penalty!?!

Thousands to Millions of Value Transactions Each Week

Repo

rting

Val

ue 1

to 4

Tim

es p

er A

nnum

Where is Value Flow?

This is your Value

Chain!

This is…

POINTLESS!

Actual Delivery

Game Time: Inventory v Throughput

Run 1• Two Departments• Department 1

– Build set of Brown Trunks– Must have large block as root

• Department 2– Builds Green Body– Mounts on Trunk

• Communicate Through Managers

Run 2• Two Teams• Team 1

– Build set of Brown Trunks– Must have large block as root– ONLY in response to pull (via

container)– Only ever put 2 trunks in each

container• Team 2

– Builds Green Body– Mounts on Trunk

• Communicate direct by ‘container slide’ back

Ask Yourself…

• Did The Change Help there? – If so, how? – If not, why?

• What was the trade-off?

Homework: Try this….

Run 3• Two Teams• Both Teams

– Build set of Trunks– Must have large block as

‘feet’– ONLY in response to pull (by

customer)– Builds Green Body– Mounts on Trunk

Run 4• One person

– Build set of Brown Trunks– Must have large base as root– ONLY in response to pull (by

customer)– Builds Green Body– Mounts on Legs

Ask Yourself…

• What went well? • What was the performance like?• Which model generated the most revenue?• Which model cost more?• Which model made the most money?

Reasoning & Tackling ComplexityCynefin

Theory of ConstraintsSystems ThinkingMarshall Model

Antimatter PrincipleNon-linear Dynamics/Chaos

Enterprise Agile (Agile-EA, SAFe…)Chaordic Organisation

Lean StartupStoos

…

Estimates v #NoEstimates

No two ways about it. Estimates are just:

Guesses

A Guess in Product Development…

Time Scope Cost Projections/Forecasts Needs/Requirements Team productivity(!) Value …

Truth: “Some cost (waste) is necessary”

Don’t cut or impede the Staff who deliver value!Cost of moving tasks between kanban columns is offset by pipeline’s benefitEscalating blockers, costs tasks blocked anyway*

Don’t be this!!

Some principles:“Any cost MUST have a corresponding Value step to be valuable”

Adding columns that don’t complete a value step, just costs. i.e. waste

“Each value chain step MUST add value else you’re increasing cost for no value”Adding columns that don’t complete a value step costs. i.e. waste

“Every step must move along the value chain to add value. Every upward step is waste”

Stopping the ‘machine’ to report its progress or over-plan delays delivery, loses opportunity cost, increases spend and often risks

“The longer the time between the expenditure and income is risk and requires bigger safety”

The longer the time between paying bills and getting income means higher need & risk to dip into savings

Most Inconvenient…

Its STOCHASTIC!

The Exciting Stuff #NoProjects

“Find an Organisation or Industry where nothing ever changes!”

IT’S NOT

REAL!!!

If change isn’t visible, is it there?

• “If a tree falls in the woods…”• Clients change• Marketing works or not• Staff are employed/fired• New Regulation/Legislation Actioned

YES!! It’s happening all the time!(So projects never should have existed the way we know them)

Projects: Definition

Prince 2:

“a temporary organization that is created for the purpose of delivering one or more business

products”

Projects v Products

• Products aren’t that temporary• Projects don’t consider support models much or

monitoring business value at all!• Projects often cross departments, even in agile :(– If you’re not closing the loop, you have another

function monitoring your value! If your company isn’t doing it, it’s the market or competitors! It’s not internal to the team.

– If you do, then why do you need project management as a separate function? Make it a role!

Bonus: Muda – 7+1 Wastes

• Transportation• Inventory• Motion• Waiting• Over-processing• Over-production• Defects• Latent Skill*

Bonus: Muda – 7+1 Wastes

• Transportation• Inventory• Motion• Waiting• Over-processing• Over-production• Defects• Latent Skill*

“There is Only One!”

COST

Q & A

Thanks for ViewingFurther Reading

Probabilityhttps://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/random-variables-topic/random_variables_prob_dist/v/random-variables (Khan Academy)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factor_analysis #NoProjects/Beyond Projectshttp://www.infoq.com/articles/kelly-beyond-projectsAnti-Matter & the Marshall Modelhttps://flowchainsensei.wordpress.com/ The Goal (Theory of Constraints)https://www.toc-goldratt.com/en/product/The-Goal-A-Process-of-Ongoing-Improvement Queuing Theoryhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queueing_theory

Ethar Alali @EtharUK @Axelisys

CXO & Chief ArchitectPolymath-MathMo. Growing up 9 year old programmer. TOGAF 9 Certified, change agent. Blog: GoadingtheITGeek.blogspot.co.uk

Specialist ICT Strategists & Advisors for some of the biggest household and corporate multi-nationals.

Accredited Growth Voucher Advisors 2014/15 certified to deliver IT & Web Growth Consultancy as part of the government’s Growth Voucher Scheme.

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