estimating integrative effects of the h’s on salmon populations

Hatchery Reform Project, February 2003

Estimating integrative effects of the H’s on salmon

populations

Life-cycle model(effects on abundance, productivity,

diversity, spatial structure)

Hatchery effects

Habitat effects

Harvest effects

Land use

Physical processes

Other ecologicaleffects

Integrative Analyses in Recovery Planning

• Technical questions in the TRT/Shared Strategy Watershed Technical Guidance Document address integrative assessment.

• The TRT is providing technical analyses to integrate the effects of the H’s as part of the Snohomish Case Study.

Snohomish watershed case study: overall purpose

• Determine if we can actually use the Technical Guidance in a real watershed recovery plan.

• Identify priority habitat, hatchery and harvest management actions that are consistent with achieving salmon population targets.

• Assist the Snohomish Forum in identifying priority areas for action and prioritizing types of actions needed to improve VSP for the Snohomish chinook populations.

Snohomish watershed case study: participants

• King County, Snohomish County

• Tulalip Tribes

• WDFW

• Seattle City Light

• City of Everett

• NOAA Fisheries

• Snohomish Technical Committee

Structure of Snohomish watershed planning groups

Technical Committee

Policy Development Committee

Forum

Ecological Analysis for

Salmon Conservation

Develop conservation

scenarios

Evaluate conservation scenarios using

biological criteria

SocioeconomicAnalysis

Goals

Selection of conservation scenario for inclusion

in plan

How Does the Guidance Document Help This Process?

• Ecological Analysis– Questions guide compilation of information

• Development of Scenarios– Scenarios are based on hypotheses about how

the system works

• Evaluation of Scenarios– VSP is the focus for assessing population status

Life-cycle model(effects on abundance, productivity,

diversity, spatial structure)

Hatchery effects

Habitat effects

Harvest effects

Land use

Physical processes

Other ecologicaleffects

Life-cycle models—estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions

Egg

Fry

Smolt

Adult

Life-cycle models—estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions

Egg

Fry

Smolt

Adult

e.g., peak flows, sediment, temperature

e.g., peak flows, temperature, riparian condition, juvenile rearing capacity, hatchery

interactions e.g., juvenile rearing capacity, hatchery fish,estuarine/marine habitat conditions, harvest

e.g., peak or low flows, temperature, sediment, spawning habitat capacity

Hypothetical alternative action sets

I. Improve riparian condition, reduce competition for spawning habitat with hatchery fish, adult harvest unchanged

II. In addition to #1, improve estuarine & floodplain habitat accessibility, reduce effects of competition with hatchery juveniles, reduce harvest in short term, increase harvest as habitat capacity increases.

improve riparian condition improve hatchery-wild spawner interactions

Hypothetical alternative action set I

Harvest management plan I

Hypothetical alternative action set II

improve riparian condition improve hatchery-wild juvenile &

spawner interactions

Harvest management plan II

Example of integrative model results

habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II

habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I

years

Pop

ulat

ion

size

(o

r gr

owth

rat

e or

div

ersi

ty)

Life-cycle model(effects on VSP)

Hatchery effects

Habitat effects

Harvest effects

Land/water use

Physical processes

Other ecologicaleffects

HSRG BRAP PSSMP

W-shedgroup

ESAESA

PSSMP

PFMCPSC

Existing groups developing alternatives

• Habitat: watershed groups

• Harvest: co-managers, Puget Chinook Harvest Management Plan

• Hatchery: co-managers and HSRG Regional Reviews

Next steps—development of alternatives

The TRT will work with co-managers, watershed groups, and other interested

parties to develop sets of alternative actions in harvest, habitat and hatchery management that can be used

in integrative analyses

Example of integrative model results: adding multiple population

risk levels

habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II

habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I

years

Pop

ulat

ion

size

(o

r gr

owth

rat

e or

div

ersi

ty)

Questions for Development Committee

• What are the key points of interface where scenarios combining actions across the H’s can be developed?