establishing cause and effect from data
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Establishing Cause and Effect from DataJason McFall, Causata
Use temporal informationCauses precede effects
Granger causality
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Does wage inflation lead to price inflation, or vice versa?
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Call CenterQuestion
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Major Product Purchase in Store
Store all the detail, in time order
filter customer journeystime
filter customer journeysalignrelative timetime
before after
Build models
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XPXW
ImG
IR
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BP
Bayesian networksAnalysing observational data is hard
ExperimentPut the science into data science
INTERVENTION
CONTROL
Split population randomly into two groups
Measure outcomes for both groups
Randomised Controlled Trials
Renewal rate
vsRENEW
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Randomise
Concurrent control
badscience.net
Bandit algorithmsIncluding random exploration
confi
denti
al
response rate
Regulated exploration/exploitation
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Retain Customer
Measure the right thing!
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Beware of bias
Beware of bias
Confirmation bias
Analysing observational data is HARD. It’s often much easier to do experiments!
Randomise
Use concurrent controls
Be alert to bias
Summary
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Thankyou
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