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Eric Horvitz

Joint work with John Krumm and Adam Sadilek

Behavioral

data store

Population activity in the wild

Paradigm for Digital Experimentation

World

simulator

Behavioral

data store

Population activity in the wild

World

simulator

What-if studies

Paradigm for Digital Experimentation

Behavioral

data store

Population activity in the wild

World

simulator

What-if studies

Paradigm for Digital Experimentation

Behavioral

data store

Population activity in the wild

World

simulator

Studies of incentives & responses

What-if studies

Paradigm for Digital Experimentation

Behavioral

data store

Population activity in the wild

World

simulator

Studies of incentives & responses

Realized design

What-if studies

Paradigm for Digital Experimentation

Decomposition Feasibility Estimation

Human

intellect

Machine

intellect

Availability

Competence

Cost

Interpreter Tasks

Solver

Planner Solution

E. Kamar, S. Hacker, E. Horvitz. Combining Human and Machine Intelligence in Large-scale Crowdsourcing, 2012.

Coordination

(AI, Human)

HUMAN

HUMAN HUMAN

HUMAN

AI

AI

AI AI

AI

HUMAN HUMAN

HUMAN

HUMAN

AI AI AI

HUMAN

HUMAN

AI

HUMAN

Coordination

(AI, Human)

REPAIR

(i)

REPAIR

(i)

TRANS

(j,k)

MT MT MT

TRANS

(i,j)

TRANS

(i,j)

Example: Lingua Mechanica

D. Shahaf, & E. Horvitz. Generalized Task Markets, AAAI 2010.

Search &

Optimization

TRANS

(k,l)

D. Shahaf, & E. Horvitz. Generalized Task Markets, AAAI 2010.

D. Shahaf, & E. Horvitz. Generalized Task Markets, AAAI 2010.

D. Shahaf, & E. Horvitz. Generalized Task Markets, AAAI 2010.

$

Interpreter Tasks

Solver

Planner Solution Perception Action

Human

intellect

Execution Coordination Composition

Machine

intellect

Sensors

Effectors

D. Shahaf, & E. Horvitz. Generalized Task Markets, AAAI 2010.

People Cameras Cranes Forklifts Cars ….etc.

Capture real-world data on location and mobility

Digital experimentation via parameter sweeps

Seek insights on shaping “fabric” of collaboration

Preferences, incentives and links to collaborative fabric

Implications & directions

A. Sadilek, J. Krumm, E. Horvitz. Crowdphysics: Planned & Opportunistic Crowdsourcing for Physical Tasks.

Actively “shaped” routing graph: set proximity d, dwell time t

Canonical Crowd Physics Problem

A. Sadilek, J. Krumm, E. Horvitz. Crowdphysics: Planned & Opportunistic Crowdsourcing for Physical Tasks.

Studies

Locations via GPS-coded tweets

Sweep through d,t

d

Shaped Contact Graphs

t

d

$ d

Contact Graphs from Tweets

A. Sadilek, J. Krumm, E. Horvitz. Crowdphysics: Planned & Opportunistic Crowdsourcing for Physical Tasks.

Actively “shaped” routing graph: set proximity d, dwell time t

Shaped Contact Graphs

d

$ d d ’

d ’

Contact Graphs from Tweets

A. Sadilek, J. Krumm, E. Horvitz. Crowdphysics: Planned & Opportunistic Crowdsourcing for Physical Tasks.

Actively “shaped” routing graph: set proximity d, dwell time t

Shaped Contact Graphs

d =100 meters t =30 minutes

21 days Cities: 60x60 km

Contact Graphs from Tweets

A. Sadilek, J. Krumm, E. Horvitz. Crowdphysics: Planned & Opportunistic Crowdsourcing for Physical Tasks.

Shaped contact graphs: Experiments with design

Actively “shaped” routing graph: set proximity d, dwell time t

Canonical Task: Routing Physical Objects

Synchronization & sequencing of effort

Local vs. centralized plans

Canonical task: Route packages

• Coverage & reachability

• Efficiency (delivery time)

• Optimality of routing heuristics

• Robustness to graph ablation

• Locale sensitivity

Random infinite graphs

Static, homogeneous networks, repeat lattice structure

Studies: Properties of finite, real-world contact graphs

Leverage for task coordination

Lévy flight: random walk w/

heavy-tailed probability distribution.

Frequent short-hops, rare long jumps (Mandelbrot)

P(x) a x-b b = 2.2

Small-world phenomenon?

Graph diameter O(log n)

Shortest path discoverable?

Global: Dijkstra, Floyd-Warshall

Assume: Complete, static knowledge

Real-time: Uncertainty about future locations

Local opportunistic routing

Use heuristics based on historical data

60 x 60 km bounding box around Seattle, 6 months

450 x 450 m cells, start & destination (ci, cj )

Test: Final 35 hours

Train: Rest of 6 mos.

Local policy:

> For each location l, consider statistics of proximity to l. > Keep package or handoff based on historical proximity

Global: Dijkstra

Phase transition @

d =350 meters t =30 minutes

Understanding & Shaping Collaborative Systems

Studies of crowd physics for sensing & acting in world

Design, optimization of collaborative substrate

Rich area, multiple directions for enhancing collaboration

Opportunities include new approaches to epidemiology,

e.g., where reachability & efficiency are minimized