energy council presentation 3 7 09

The Grid TodayThe Grid Today

The Energy CouncilThe Energy Council’’s 2009 Federal Energy s 2009 Federal Energy and Environmental Matters Conferenceand Environmental Matters Conference

About NERC: MissionAbout NERC: Mission

Develop & enforce reliability standards

Assess current and future reliability

Analyze system events & recommend improved practices

Encourage active participation by all stakeholders

Pursue mandatory standards across North America

To ensure the reliability of the North American bulk power system

Directions to Moving Forward Directions to Moving Forward

Long-Term Reliability

Key Reliability Objectives

Current Climate Initiatives

LongLong--Term ReliabilityTerm Reliability

Adequacy generally improving over past years

Transmission is essential

Integration of new generation sources (renewables, nuclear, next gen coal, PHEV…)

Demand response increasing

Key Objective: Support TransmissionKey Objective: Support Transmission

Climate objectives cannot be fulfilled without focus on transmission

“Clean Energy Superhighway” needed

System planning must take a “continental” view

Source:EPRI & NREL

Wind Availability Compared to Demand Centers

Note:o Blue indicates areas with high wind potential, o Brown indicates large demand centers, and o Green indicates areas with little wind potential and

smaller demand centers

Status of TransmissionStatus of Transmission……

The electric transmission system operates close to the edge of its capacity• Roughly $70 billion of investment in

20,000 miles of extra high-voltage transmission will be needed to preserve the status quo over the next 10 years

Future energy policy objectives such as achieving energy independence or reducing carbon emissions are off the table without significant upgrades to the transmission system• Roughly $100 billion of investment

in 30,000 miles of additional extra high-voltage transmission will be needed to meet energy policy objectives by 2024

NERC Regional Entities NERC Regional Entities

Wind Projected to GrowWind Projected to Grow

145,000 MW of wind to be added in coming 10 years

Recommendations:• Flexibility

• Forecasting

• Transmission

Figure 5: Projected Increase in Existing, Planned & Proposed Summer On-Peak Wind Capacity

11.5%

17.2%

13.4%

19.6%

13.1%

26.4%

19.9%19.9%

8.7% 8.7% 9.1%

15.0%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2008

2017

2008

2017

2008

2017

2008

2017

2008

2017

2008

2017

2008

2017

2008

2017

ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC

MW

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Existing Planned Proposed % of Expected-Peak Wind Capacity to Nameplate Capacity

2008/09 Winter Wind Generation Grows2008/09 Winter Wind Generation Grows

Projected Winter WindTotal Nameplate Capacity

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC

MW

Existing Planned Proposed

Projected Winter WindTotal Nameplate Capacity

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

ERCOT FRCC MRO NPCC RFC SERC SPP WECC

MW

Existing Planned Proposed

Capacity available on peak ranges from 8.7% to 26%

C a p a c ity D e m a n d R e s p o n s e (M W ) - 1 0 y e a r P r o je c t io n

0

1 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

3 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

5 0 0 0

6 0 0 0

7 0 0 0

8 0 0 0

2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 7E R C O T F R C C M R O N P C C R F C S E R C S P P W E C C

MW

T o ta l C a p a c ity D e m a n d R e s p o n s e D ir e c t C o n tr o l L o a d Ma n a g e m e n tC o n tr a c tu a l ly In te r r u p t ib le ( C u r ta i la b l e ) C ri t ic a l P e a k -P r ic in g w ith C o n t ro lL o a d a s a C a p a c ity R e s o u r c e

Key Objective: DemandKey Objective: Demand--Side ResourcesSide ResourcesUS Peak Demand (1994-2017)

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

850,000

900,000

950,000

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year

Meg

awat

ts

U.S. peak demand projected to grow by 17% by 2018

Modernized Grid Modernized Grid –– Integration KeyIntegration Key

“Smart Grids” can support reliability

Variable Resources

Demand response

Large deployment of sensor & automation technologies

Innovative applications of electricity

Flexibility

Cyber-Security vital

Renewables

Independent

Nuclear

Next gen Coal

Secure

Energy Efficiency

Demand Response

Reliable

SmartSmart GridGrid

Components to the Intelligent Network Components to the Intelligent Network –– Many are focused in vertical silosMany are focused in vertical silos

Circuit Transformers AMI Load Management

Capacitor Bank Monitoring

Predictive Maintenance

Security (Video/Audio)

Load Management

OMS/DMS

Broadband over Power Lines

Advanced SCADA

Mesh networks

Voltage Monitoring

Outage Detection

Theft Detection

Asset Failure Alarms

Smart substation

High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) Cables

Underground Transmission

HTS Transformers

Real-Time Metering

TOU/CPP Pricing

Outage Monitoring

Voltage Monitoring

Smart switch

Smart thermostat

Real-time DLC management and verification

Load profiling

Aggregation of curtailed load

Generation

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

Hydro

Biomass

Biofuels

Carbon capture

Nuclear

Carbon cap and trade

Storage technology

Capacitors

Consumer Portal

Integration of Variable Generation Integration of Variable Generation Task Force (IVGTF) ScopeTask Force (IVGTF) Scope

Task Force will prepare: • Concepts document: philosophical

& technical considerations

• Recommendations: practices, requirements & reliability standards

Document will include:• Planning timeframe issues

• Operational Planning and Real-time Operating timeframe issues

• Review NERC Standards for gaps

• Review of future developments: i.e. storage, EHV

• Conclusions and recommendations

Current Climate InitiativesCurrent Climate Initiatives

40 U.S. States and all Canadian Provinces are involved in some form of climate change initiative.

Key Objective: Decision on U.S. PolicyKey Objective: Decision on U.S. Policy

Regulatory certainty needed to enable resource development

Can result in great improvements• New generation technologies

• Diversified fuel mix

• Strengthened & “smarter” grid

Key Objectives and Emerging IssuesKey Objectives and Emerging Issues

Emerging Issues Risk Evolution:

Consequence

Like

lihoo

d

High

HighLow

Greenhouse Gas

Reductions

Fuel Storage & Transportation

Rising Global Demand for

Energy & Equipment

Increased Demand-Side & Distributed Generation

Resources

Transmission of the 21st

CenturyLimited Water Availability

Mercury Regulation

1-5 Years6-10 Years

Smart, Modern Grids and ReliabilitySmart, Modern Grids and Reliability

Regulators can• Implement formulas for cost allocation/cost recovery• Provide certainty & support transmission infrastructure

siting, planning, construction• Flexible on innovative planning

Policy makers/Educators can• Promote reliability as incorporating all components “FIS”

flexibility- integration- smart• Tell story with all pieces

Planners can• Maintain Future Bulk Power System Reliability• Change how they design grids

Operators can• Expand understanding of new resources• Manage variability/uncertainty• Pre-position systems

Reliability Must HavesReliability Must Haves

Interoperability• Regulatory Certainty

• Smart and Flexible-

solid partnerships

Diverse Fuel Supply

Demand Side Resources

Interconnectivity• Renewables and Transmission

State and regional PARTERNSHIP w/ State and regional

One picture speaks a thousand wordsOne picture speaks a thousand words……..

Growth in Electricity Supply, Demand, and Transmission(1990 -2007)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Transmission Supply Demand

Perc

enta

ge

30% growth 30% growth

10% growth

Question & Answer

Contact:

Julia SouderDirector, Inter-Governmental RelationsJulia.souder@nerc.net202.393.3998