emerging technologies - nceg.gov.in technology trends... · pervasive connectivity geospatial...

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

26th – 27th February, 2018

Hyderabad, Telangana

Dr. Nirmaljeet Singh Kalsi, IASBE IIT Roorkee, M Tech IIT Delhi, PhD Thapar University

Additional Chief Secretary

Department of Home Affairs and Justice, Governance Reforms and Public Grievances

Government of Punjab, Chandigarh

National Conference on E-Governance 2018

TECHNOLOGY HAS BEEN

ONE OF THE MAJOR

FACTORS IN INNOVATION

CHANGE AND DISRUPTIONS

IN THE LAST 250 YEARS

Installation period Deployment Period

Institutional

recomposition

De

gre

eo

fte

ch

no

log

ica

lm

atu

rity

an

dm

ark

et

satu

rati

on

time

Crash 2000-2008Big bang Intel 4004 1971 Next big bangSource: Carlota Perez

Techno-economic

split

IRRUPTION

Financial Bubble

Time

FRENZY

Golden Age

SYNERGY

MATURITY

Technology Adoption Life Cycle –The Law of Diffusion of Innovation

EMOTIONS ANDANALYTICAL THINKING FEELINGS

Mainframe

1947

Minicomputer

1965

PC

1981 1995

Internet Smartphone

2007

The Shortening Waves

INSTALLATION

PERIOD

TURNING

POINTDEPLOYMENT

Age of

Information1971

Internet mania and

financial casino2000 & 2008

The Industrial

Revolution1771 Canal mania 1793-97 The Great British Leap

Age of Steam

and Railways

Age of Steel

and Electricity

1829 Railway mania 1848-50 The Victorian Boom

1875Infrastructure

bubbles1890-95

The Belle Époque (Europe)

Progressive Era (USA)

Age of Oil and

Automobile1908

The Roaring

Twenties1929-33 & 43 Post-war Golden Age

The New Golden Age?

Source: Carlota Perez

Technological Revolution

7

Innovation

Disruptive TechnologySustaining Technology

Evolutionary - An innovation that

improves a product in an existing market in

ways that customers are expecting.

Red Oceans - commodities

Revolutionary - An innovation that

creates a new market by allowing customers

to solve a problem in a radically new way.

May not be affordable enough to be

disruptive

An innovation that creates a new

(an unexpected) market by

applying a different set of values.

Affordable so the impact is

major

The Law of Disappearing

TechnologyWhen some technique is mastered,

it will “disappear” as something

obvious and trivial,

and

other more useful things are

built on top of it

TECHNOLOGICAL

DISRUPTIONS ARE THE

NEW NORMS RATHER

THAN EXCEPTIONS

Any technology that is going to have

significant impact over the next 10

years is already at least 10 years old

Source:http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm

The 10/10 Rule

Technology is ever evolving – and so are the businesses

Source: Alcatel-Lucent

Pre-internet

Internet ofCONTENT

Internet ofSERVICES

Internet ofPEOPLE

Internet ofTHINGS

+ IPnetworks

+ IT platforms& services

+ devices & apps

+ sensors,more devices& tags,big data

“SOCIALMEDIA”

“WEB 2.0”“WWW”“HUMAN

TOHUMAN”

•Fixed &mobiletelephony

•SMS

•e-mail

• Information

•Entertainment

•Web Sites

•…

•e-productivity

•e-commerce

•E-Office

•Online services

•…

•Skype

•Facebook

•YouTube

•…

• Identification, tracking, monitoring, metering, …

•Automation, actuation, payment, …

•…

“MACHINETO

MACHINE”

+ ambientcontext, data semantics

Internet of

EVERYHING

+ Process, People, Things, Big data

“WEB 3.0”

Cloud + Virtualization

Pervasive Connectivity Geospatial Visualization

Social Networks Web 2.0 – 3.0

A clearly visible trend - The Accelerating Emerging

Convergence of Technologies…

Internet of Things M2M - IoE

Advanced Analytics BIG DATA

13Courtesy: Jones Lang LaSalle

Mobile Platform

Social Networks

Cyber Security

TODAY OUR

DEVICES ARE

GATEWAYS

TO THE

INTERNET/

CLOUD

The Physical blends with the Digital

Augmented reality – overlaying digital over the physical

Virtual Reality surgery

Gaming, instructions, design, prototyping etc.has fundamentally changed

CAN WE

LOOK FORWARD

5-10 YEARS

TO SEE THE UPCOMING

FUTURE

CHANGES

Technologies Already Available Commercially

• Drones

• Google Glasses

Public

Safety

Traffic

Management

Energy

Management

Bus

Water

Managem

ent

Public Health

Tram

Train

Metro

Subway

Remote

Monitoring

Fitness

Machines

IoT/ IoE End-user Applications Everywhere – Smart City Touches Differente

Industry Vertcles

Logistics &

Networking

Medical &

Healthcare

Transportation & Mobility

Public Transport

Railways

Smart Metering

Air Conditions

Elderly Living

Waste

Management

Environmental

Smart Grids

First Responders

Green Houses Sports

Medicine

Cool

Chain

Monitoring

Telematics

Reverse

Vending

Industrial

Automation &

Process Control

Ticketing

Smart

Buildings

Water Supply,

Sanitation & Irrigation

Signage

Automatic Vehicle Location

Remote Monitoring

Retail &

Vending

Energy

Monitoring

Medical

Elderly Living

Smart City

Smart Building

Green Houses

Cool Chain

Monitoring

Agriculture

Retail

Public Safety, Security

& Surveillance

Chemicals, Materials

& Food

Minerals & Mining

AutomotiveAerospace & Defense

Measurement &

Instrumentation

Energy & Power

SystemsInformation &

Communication

Technologies

Consumer Technologies

Markets & Submarket:

Enabling Technology

Embedded Cellular M2M

Modules

Connection and service

Network Connectivity

Network Security

Integration Services

Application Services

Connected Device

Platforms (CDP)

Application Platforms

Application Enablement

Platforms, AEP and

Application Development

Platforms, ADP

Smart City

Machme Vis1on I Optical

Amb1ent

Electric I M

Motion I Veloc•ty I D•splacement

• -Q-*-

Temperature

I Moisture

Leaks I Levels

Force 1 Load I Torque

Stra1n I Pressure

AcoustiC I Sound I Vibration

Flow Chemical I Gas

All rights reser'Ved

For a Smart City We Need to Create A Digital Nervous System through Network of Sensors & Actuators

90% of the population will have Unlimited and Free Data Storage by 2019

• Deleting files to make room for files is going tobecome a thing of the past.

• In fewer than three years, about 90% of people willhave unlimited and free data storage that willultimately be ad-supported, according to thereport.

• We are already seeing some companies offer cheapor completely free service. For example, GooglePhotos already offers unlimited storage for photosand Amazon will let you store an unlimited amountof whatever you want for just $60 a year.

E-skin Wearables and implants Beyond 2019-20 Generating Huge Real-time Medical Data

• The future belongs to digestible and wearablesensors that can work like a thin e-skin.

• Biometric tattoos such as Viva LNK’s eSkinTattoo can transmit medical information discreetly.

• RFID or Radio Frequency Identification chips canbe implanted under the skin and serve as anidentification device.

• These sensors will measure all important healthparameters and vital signs from temperature, andblood biomarkers to neurological symptoms 24hours a day transmitting data to the cloud andsending alerts to medical systems when a stroke ishappening real time.

• It will call the ambulance itself and sends all therelated data immediately.

Star Trek type Universal Translators – 2019-20Already tested for English to Chinese

• The day is near when two people speakingdifferent languages can communicate with oneanother in their own voices but in languagesthey don't know or understand.

The 3D Printer Organs (Complex) and first 3D printed car will be in production by 2021 - 2022.

• 3D printers are increasingly becoming more powerful,capable of printing complex objects from all kinds ofmaterials. Many car companies are already using thetechnology to create prototypes and to more efficientlycreate specific parts of a vehicle.

• Most recently, Audi showed off a miniature sized vehicle itcreated using its metal printers.

• But the automotive startup Local Motors is aiming to beginproduction on a full size car using 3D printing in the nextfew years. The company has already created severalprototypes, but will begin taking orders for its productionmodel (shown above) in 2016.

• Non-critical applications included dental implants andexoskeletons to assist with mobility and joint movement.

1 Trillion Sensors (150 sensors per person) will be Connected to the Internet by 2022.

• Welcome to the internet of things (IoT).

• As the cost of sensors continues to decline andcomputing power increases, all kinds ofdevices will increasingly become connected tothe internet.

• 10% of the world's population will be wearing clothes connected to the internet by 2022.

• And as early as 2022, its predicted 1 trillionsensors will be connected

• According to the report “every (physical)product could be connected to ubiquitouscommunication infrastructure, and sensorseverywhere will allow people to fully perceivetheir environment.”

The first government to replace its census with big-data technologies by 2023.

• As collecting, managing, andunderstanding data becomes easier,governments may move away from oldmethods of collecting information andbegin to rely more on big datatechnologies to automate programs.

• Some countries, including Canada, havealready began experimenting withpulling back on traditional censusmethods, however, no country hascompletely replaced the system yet.

10% of Regular Reading Glasses will be Connected to the Internet by 2023.

• Interacting with the world around youwill become a lot different whenconnected glasses become morecommon.

• Connected eye wear will becomecommon by 2023.

• The technology will allow the wearer tohave direct access to internetapplications will enable an enhanced oraugmented reality experience.

• Eye tracking technology will also enablethem to control the interface with theirvision.

80% of People on Earth (including the third world) will have a Digital Presence Online by 2023

• More people will gain a digital identityas internet connectivity becomesmore prevalent.

• According to the report “...digital life isbecoming inextricably linked with aperson’s physical life,” and will onlycontinue to grow in importance.

• Companies like Facebook and Googleare pushing this effort ahead withvarious projects to connect remoteparts of the world to the internet.

90% of the Global Population will have a Supercomputer of today in their pocket by 2023.

• Around the world people are increasinglyusing their smartphones more than PCs,and in developing nations people arebecoming connected to the internet forthe first time via their mobile phone.

• As smartphones gain computing powerand the price continues to fall, the speedof adoption will only accelerate.

• The number of global smartphonesubscribers has reached more than 50%penetration by 2017 and

• By 2023, about 90% of the populationwill be connected via smart phone.

Access to the Internet will become an agreed Basic Human Right by 2024

• By 2024 most of the world will have regularinternet access.

• Tech giants like Google and Facebook arecurrently coming up with creative solutionsto connect the remaining 3.5 billion peoplewho don’t have access to the internet.

• Facebook’s Internet.org is using drones tobeam internet down to Earth fromsatellites and

• Google’s Project Loon is using giantballoons that float in the atmosphere toconnect remote parts of the world.

Globally, more trips will be made using car sharing programs than privately owned cars by 2025.

• Autonomous cars have the potentialto dramatically increase safety,decrease emissions, and changemodels of transportation.

• Tech companies like Google andUber, as well as traditionalautomakers like Toyota, GeneralMotors, and Volkswagen are allcurrently working on self-drivingcars.

• It will be 2026 before the 10% of allcars are driverless in the US.

The first Implantable Mobile Phone will become commercially available in 2025.

• Being attached to your smartphone may take ona whole new meaning by 2023.

• In seven years the first implantable mobilephone will become commercially available.

• The device will potentially be able to track aperson’s health more accurately, while alsoallowing them to communicate thoughts viabrainwaves or signal instead of verbally,according to the report.

• Implantable health devices, like pacemakers andcochlear implants, have already become moremainstream. And it's likely we'll see morewidespread adoption of implantabletechnologies emerge before 2025.

Digital Currencies, The Block Chain Technology by 2025

• The blockchain is essentially a shared publicledger that everyone can inspect and no singleperson controls.

• By 2023 its predicted that the first government willcollect taxes using the Blockchain technology

• 10% of global gross domestic product ($87Ttoday) will be stored using blockchain technology2027.

• The blockchain technology, though, holds promisebeyond Bitcoin e.g. for public databases, like titlesto land or other goods.

• According to recent article from the Economist, theNASDAQ is even about to start using the technology torecord trading in securities of private companies.

36

37

Artificial intelligence 30% of corporate audits will be performed by AI 2025The first AI machine will join a corporate BoD 2026

• IBM Watson has a potentials as huge opportunitiesin medicine. Watson will assist physicians ineveryday medical decision-making,.

• Watson has the capacity to read 40 milliondocuments in 15 seconds and to suggest the mostfitting the rapies.

• Atomwise aims to reduce the costs of medicinedevelopment by using supercomputers to predict,in advance, which potential medicines will work,and which won’t.

• Google Deepmind Health is used to mine the dataof medical records in order to provide better andfaster health services..

The first fully IoE enabled Smart City (>50,000 people) will become Fully Operational by 2026.

• Infrastructure will also become moreconnected in the future, giving way to moresmart cities.

• Everything from the sidewalk and streets tothe traffic lights and buildings will beconnected to the internet.

• Smart cities, like a smart home, will beautomated capable of managing their“energy, material flows, logistics andtraffic”.

• The evolution of connected infrastructurewill bring about the first city with apopulation of 50,000 people and no trafficlights by 2026.

Google Brain - Create Digital Selves Based on neurological information upload our minds to a computer

and live on in a digital form

• Ian Pearson wrote in his book, YouTomorrow, about the possibility that oneday we will be able to create digital selvesbased on neurological information.

• It means we could upload our minds to acomputer and live on in a digital form.

• As Google hired Ray Kurzweil to createthe ultimate artificial intelligencecontrolled brain, this opportunity shouldnot be so far away.

• We might have been looking for thesecret of immortality in the wrong places.

Avatars, Surrogates, Robotics

• You can be yourself and interact in the world in afairly low-tech way while allowing asurrogate, avatar or robot to live your online and techlife for you.

• The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) hasbudgeted to create avatars that will act as surrogates for real, livesoldiers.

• While avatars and surrogates were once the stuff of games, virtualreality and computer interfacing, they are taking on more and moreactive roles as replacements for living breathing humans. Or, arethey enhancements for humans?

• Fully-realized robotic machines have become more and morewidespread in medical technology and scientific development, bothin the lab and in hospitals, enabling those with paralysis to movelimbs, for instance.

• "Living" life with 'second life' surrogates is likely to becomemore and more common every day for those of us in lessspecialized fields, too.

Big Data & Data Analytics – with all its pros and cons • Data and the machines and algorithms used to manage and make sense of it could largely replace

independent decision-making -- either large or small -- and it is happening at such a speed that it's sometimes hard to remember the data isn't in control.

• People still control the data, but just who has this control and what they do with it will become an ongoing challenge

43

Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Deep Learning, Deep Neural networks

Deep Web and dark Web Technologies

• Common Web

• Surface Web

• Deep Web

• Dark Web

46

Deep Web, Dark Networks, Crypto Currencies, Organised Crime, Espionage and Cyber Terrorism• we are becoming a bigger collective target for

the bad guys.

• While our data puts us all "out there" in many ways,that same data enables those involved in dark networksand activities to get lost and take on false, covertidentities in order to plan bigger and bigger attacks.

• Anonymous is dark group involved in "hactivism,“found its way into sensitive stores of information fromthe likes of the FBI, Visa and Mastercard, andgovernment Web sites from the U.K. to China, causinglarge-scale, disabling computer terror.

• It functions as a collective of many individuals andspreads its login and computer activities thin enough tolead authorities in too many directions to track, and itsacts target everything from politics to commerce.

Small modular nuclear reactors mid-2020s to the mid-2030s

• Small modular reactors (SMRs) are a new class ofsmaller, cheaper, safer and more adaptable nuclearpower plants that gain widespread adoption from themid-2020s to the mid-2030s.

• They are defined by the International Atomic EnergyAgency as generating an electric output of less than300 MW, reaching as low as 10 MW for some of thesmallest versions. This is compared to larger,conventional reactors, with1 to 2 GW.

• Electricity was first generated from nuclear energy in1951, during tests of an experimental reactor in thehigh desert of Idaho. The original output wasestimated at 45 kW. In subsequent decades, reactorsgrew much larger, with outputs reaching the gigawattscale.

Challenges of Handling the New Technology

• Policy Framework

• Legal Framework

• Regulatory Framework

• Monitoring, Policing and Investigation Framework

• HRD and Capacity Building Framework – Government, Legislators, Judiciary

• R&D and Innovation Framework

• Framework for adoption in the Government

IS THE GOVERNMENT

READY FOR THESE

TECHNOLOGY TIPPING

POINTS

WE WILL REACH BY IN

NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS??........

TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION

BUSINESS DISRUPTORS

DESIGN FOR MILLENNIALS

THE FUTURE IS

FAR MORE CHALLENGING,

FULL OF INNOVATIONS

IN MULTIDICIPLINARY AREAS

AND BUSINESS DISRUPTIONS

BOUNDRIES BETWEEN

THE SUBJECTS AND

ENGINEERING

DISCIPLINES ARE

BLURRING

FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTIN PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOUR

FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE INPROVISIONING SERVICES

Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

FUNDAMENTAL

CHANGE IN

AVAILING AND

CONSUMING

SERVICES

Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

FUNDAMENTAL

CHANGE IN

CONNECTING

PEOPLE,

BUSINESSES

AND

GOVERNMENTS

THE FUTURE IS

FAR MORE CHALLENGING,

FULL OF INNOVATIONS

IN MULTIDICIPLINARY AREAS

AND BUSINESS DISRUPTIONS

59

Thank You

The business plans of the next 10,000

startups are easy to forecast:Define purpose of your life

Take X (Any Existing business) and

add AI/ Machine Learning/ Neural Networks

add Cloud Computing Resources

add Mobile/ Smartphone Platform

add Social Media /Networks

add Big Data Analytics/ BI

add oppen source/ open data apps

“The Citizen Services ideas for the next 10,000

successful services are easy to forecast:

Take Service X,

Authenticate with Aadhar, seed the Bank Account

add Technologies - AI, BI, Big Data Analytics, Machine

Learning, Block Chain,

Add Platforms

Add the will & Commitment of the Govt.”

You have DIGITAL INDIA