emerging markets 2012 · sources: gdp per capita and estimated 2011 gdp growth: imf world economic...

Kazakhstan

Russia

China

NepalBhutan

Mongolia

India

Sri Lanka

Kyrgyz Republic

TajikistanTurkmenistan

Bangladesh

Cambodia

PhilippinesVietnam

Laos

PakistanIranIraq

Syria

Uzbekistan

ThailandMyanmar

Egypt

Chad Sudan

Djibouti

Afghanistan

Kenya

Namibia

Republic ofCongo

Botswana

Mozambique

Malawi

Zimbabwe

Tanzania

Mauritius

Swaziland

South AfricaLesotho

Angola

Mauritania

Colombia

Mexico

Brazil

Peru

Bolivia

Paraguay

UruguayArgentina

Chile

Malaysia

Indonesia

East Timor

Tunisia

Algeria Morocco

Zambia

Togo

Rwanda EquatorialGuineaGabon

CameroonGhana

Benin

Nigeria

Mali

Guinea Bissau GuineaBurkina Faso

Côted’Ivoire

SenegalGambia

El SalvadorCosta Rica

Belize

Guatemala

Panama

GuyanaSuriname

Ecuador

Venezuela

DominicanRepublic

DominicaTrinidad &Tobago

Jamaica

Haiti

HondurasNicaragua

Poland

Croatia

Romania

Lithuania

Bulgaria

Moldova

Albania

Serbia

Belarus

Macedonia

Bosnia-Herz.

Turkey

Ukraine

Lebanon

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Georgia

JordanSaudi Arabia

PapuaNew Guinea

Yemen

Latvia

Maldives

Seychelles

Hungary

Montenegro

Pro: Economy is maturingCon: Remains over-reliant on exports

Pro: Double-digit GDP growth Con: In�ation prompts unease

Pro: Strong investment recordCon: Economy stumbling

Pro: Investment supporting growthCon: State spending is surging

Pro: Remittances boost GDPCon: In�ation on rising trend

Pro: Huge scope for expansionCon: Labor shortage inhibits growth

Pro: Economy reboundingCon: State �nances stretched

Pro: Reforms to further boost GDPCon: Heavy reliance on oil exports

Pro: Business reforms in pipelineCon: Capacity restrains limit growth

Pro: Business-friendly governmentCon: Infrastructure under-developed

Pro: Capable economic managementCon: Global woes inhibit growth

Pro: Strong rebound expectedCon: Exports impaired by 2011 �oods

Pro: Foreign investment surgingCon: Growth is straining infrastructure

Pro: Domestic consumption boomingCon: Social welfare system still lacking

Pro: Strong growth momentum Con: Lingering corruption

Pro: OECD-leading economyCon: In�ation expected to rise

Pro: High oil prices driving growthCon: Political dissent on the risePro: Formidable domestic demand

Con: Over dependence on FDI

Pro: Ef�cient open economyCon: External demand weakening

Pro: Foreign investment magnetCon: Growth slowing sharply

Pro: Strong export growth to USCon: Currency proving unstable

Pro: Strong GDP growth resumesCon: Signs of overheating emerge

Most Competitive

Saudi ArabiaMalaysiaChinaChileThailandTunisiaPolandLithuaniaIndonesiaHungary

5.175.084.904.704.524.474.464.414.384.36

Competitiveness index

ChileUruguayBotswanaBhutanPolandDominicaMauritiusRwandaLithuaniaSeychelles

7.27.06.15.75.55.25.15.04.84.8

Corruption index

Least Corrupt GDP Growth Estimates

GhanaMongoliaTurkmenistanIraqChinaP. New GuineaLaosBhutanArgentinaIndia

13.511.59.99.79.59.08.38.18.07.8

%

Actual FDI In�owsfor 2010

ChinaBrazilRussiaSaudi ArabiaIndiaMexicoChileIndonesiaKazakhstanAngola

105,73548,43841,19428,10524,64018,67915,09513,3049,9619,942

$ mill

Sources: GDP per capita and estimated 2011 GDP growth: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011; Competitiveness index: The World Economic Forum, September 2011; Corruption index: Transparency International, October 2011; FDI flows: UNCTAD, November 2011Cartographic map courtesy of Istituto Geografico De Agostini

EMERGING MARKETS 2012

Sizzling: Watch out for dramatic growth and intense investor interest

Hot: Conditions are right for serious growth

Warm: Only for the brave, but pioneers will find plenty of opportunity

Tepid: Great potential but serious downsides

Cold: The risks of investing outweigh the potential rewards

GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % score index ALGERIA 5,001 2.86 2,291 -17.01 3.96 2.9 ANGOLA 5,061 3.68 9,942 -14.82 2.96 2.0 BENIN 756 3.77 111 -17.72 3.78 3.0 BOTSWANA 8,844 6.24 529 -8.65 4.05 6.1 BURKINA FASO 670 4.88 37 -78.34 3.25 3.0 CAMEROON 1,234 3.80 425 26.00 3.61 2.5 CHAD 920 2.45 781 69.20 2.87 2.0 CONGO - REPUBLIC OF 3,792 5.00 2,816 35.16 N/A 2.2 CÔTE D’IVOIRE 1,049 -5.84 418 9.73 3.37 2.2 DJIBOUTI 1,500 4.82 27 -73.10 N/A 3.0 EGYPT 2,922 1.22 6,386 -4.86 3.88 2.9 EQUATORIAL GUINEA 14,374 7.09 695 -57.52 N/A 1.9 GABON 10,982 5.58 170 419.07 N/A 3.0 GAMBIA 620 5.50 37 -20.96 3.84 3.5 GHANA 1,588 13.53 2,527 50.01 3.65 3.9 GUINEA-BISSAU 586 4.79 9 -36.61 N/A 2.2 KENYA 882 5.28 133 -5.33 3.82 2.2 LESOTHO 1,040 5.15 55 13.96 3.26 3.5 MALDIVES 6,499 6.49 164 45.82 N/A 2.5 MALI 796 5.28 148 35.33 3.39 2.8 MAURITANIA 1,227 5.11 14 135.59 3.20 2.4 MAURITIUS 8,520 4.20 430 67.15 4.31 5.1 MOROCCO 3,162 4.62 1,304 -33.20 4.16 3.4 MOZAMBIQUE 551 7.19 789 -11.61 3.31 2.7 NAMIBIA 6,087 3.57 858 66.08 4.00 4.4 NIGERIA 1,541 6.89 6,099 -29.49 3.45 2.4 RWANDA 585 7.00 42 -64.34 4.19 5.0 SENEGAL 1,096 4.02 237 14.29 3.70 2.9 SEYCHELLES 11,117 5.04 369 34.24 N/A 4.8 SOUTH AFRICA 1,457 5.65 1,553 -71.06 4.34 4.1 SUDAN 1,939 -0.22 1,600 -40.35 N/A 1.6 SWAZILAND 3,332 -2.06 93 41.12 3.30 3.1 TANZANIA 550 6.12 700 8.53 3.56 3.0 TOGO 511 3.83 41 -18.09 N/A 2.4 TUNISIA 4,593 0.01 1,513 -10.37 4.47 3.8 ZAMBIA 1,355 6.72 1,041 49.88 3.67 3.2 ZIMBABWE 735 6.02 105 0.38 3.33 2.2 GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % score index AFGHANISTAN 575 7.07 76 -59.11 N/A 1.5 ARMENIA 3,048 4.61 577 -25.75 3.89 2.6 AZERBAIJAN 7,510 0.19 563 18.98 4.31 2.4 BANGLADESH 690 6.32 913 30.44 3.73 2.7 BHUTAN 2,299 8.06 12 -20.39 N/A 5.7 CAMBODIA 912 6.71 783 45.16 3.85 2.1 CHINA 5,184 9.47 105,735 11.30 4.90 3.6 EAST TIMOR 649 7.34 280 460.07 3.35 2.4 GEORGIA 3,098 5.55 549 -16.64 3.95 4.1 INDIA 1,527 7.84 24,640 -30.88 4.30 3.1 INDONESIA 3,469 6.40 13,304 172.76 4.38 3.0 KAZAKHSTAN 10,951 6.52 9,961 -27.67 4.18 2.7 KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 970 7.00 234 23.21 3.45 2.1 LAOS 1,204 8.26 350 9.85 N/A 2.2 MALAYSIA 8,617 5.20 9,103 536.61 5.08 4.3 MONGOLIA 3,131 11.47 1,691 171.23 3.86 2.7 MYANMAR 804 5.53 756 30.72 N/A 1.5 NEPAL 644 3.48 39 1.11 3.47 2.2 PAKISTAN 1,164 2.56 2,016 -13.77 3.58 2.5 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1,712 8.96 29 -93.18 N/A 2.2 PHILIPPINES 2,255 4.66 1,713 -12.74 4.08 2.6

SRI LANKA 2,864 6.96 478 18.22 4.33 3.3 TAJIKISTAN 862 6.00 45 183.33 3.77 2.3 THAILAND 5,281 3.54 5,813 16.82 4.52 3.4 TURKMENISTAN 4,362 9.90 2,083 -46.13 N/A 1.6 UZBEKISTAN 1,529 7.05 822 15.61 N/A 1.6 VIETNAM 1,362 5.75 8,173 7.54 4.24 2.9 GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % index index ALBANIA 4,131 2.50 1,097 12.00 4.06 3.1 BELARUS 6,118 4.96 1,350 -28.45 N/A 2.4 BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 4,715 2.20 63 -74.18 3.83 3.2 BULGARIA 7,243 2.50 2,170 -35.24 4.16 3.3 CROATIA 14,529 0.76 583 -79.99 4.08 4.0 HUNGARY 14,808 1.80 2,377 16.22 4.36 4.6 LATVIA 12,226 3.96 349 271.98 4.24 4.2 LITHUANIA 13,190 5.98 629 265.66 4.41 4.8 MACEDONIA 5,012 3.05 293 45.59 4.05 3.9 MOLDOVA 2,022 7.00 199 55.59 3.89 2.9 MONTENEGRO 6,668 2.02 760 -50.21 4.27 4.0 POLAND 13,967 3.81 9,681 -29.32 4.46 5.5 ROMANIA 8,666 1.49 3,573 -26.28 4.08 3.6 RUSSIA 13,236 4.29 41,194 12.86 4.21 2.4 SERBIA 6,267 2.01 1,329 -32.18 3.88 3.3 TURKEY 10,576 6.59 9,071 7.85 4.28 4.2 UKRAINE 3,575 4.70 6,495 34.86 4.00 2.3 GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % score index ARGENTINA 10,640 7.99 6,337 57.75 3.99 3.0 BELIZE 4,349 2.50 97 -10.43 3.52 N/A BOLIVIA 2,246 5.00 622 47.05 3.82 2.8 BRAZIL 12,917 3.77 48,438 86.67 4.32 3.8 CHILE 13,970 6.55 15,095 17.25 4.70 7.2 COLOMBIA 6,980 4.87 6,760 -5.29 4.20 3.4 COSTA RICA 8,489 4.00 1,413 4.91 4.27 4.8 DOMINICA 6,833 0.90 31 -25.28 N/A 5.2 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 5,406 4.50 1,626 -24.92 3.73 2.6 ECUADOR 4,352 5.78 164 -48.55 3.82 2.7 EL SALVADOR 3,831 2.00 78 -78.68 3.89 3.4 GUATEMALA 3,177 2.85 687 14.47 4.00 2.7 GUYANA 3,202 5.26 188 30.00 3.73 2.5 HAITI 739 6.14 150 295.26 2.90 1.8 HONDURAS 2,105 3.46 797 52.40 3.98 2.6 JAMAICA 5,376 1.49 201 -62.84 3.76 3.3 MEXICO 10,803 3.79 18,679 21.82 4.29 3.0 NICARAGUA 1,202 3.98 508 17.00 3.61 2.5 PANAMA 8,421 7.40 2,363 33.26 4.35 3.3 PARAGUAY 3,421 6.40 419 100.62 3.53 2.2 PERU 5,614 6.25 7,328 31.42 4.21 3.4 SURINAME 7,281 5.03 180 19.05 3.67 3.0 TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 3,648 1.42 549 -22.52 4.00 3.2 URUGUAY 14,672 6.00 2,355 47.85 4.25 7.0 VENEZUELA 3,081 3.79 -1,404 54.78 3.51 1.9 GDP per head GDP growth Actual FDI FDI change Competitiveness Corruption $ % $ million % score index IRAN 6,260 2.52 3,617 19.92 4.26 2.7 IRAQ 3,306 9.65 1,426 -1.73 N/A 1.8 JORDAN 4,542 2.46 1,704 -29.89 4.19 4.5 LEBANON 10,474 1.50 4,955 3.15 3.95 2.5 SAUDI ARABIA 3,049 2.03 28,105 -12.45 5.17 4.4 SYRIA 3,050 -2.02 1,381 -3.68 3.85 2.6 YEMEN 1,460 -2.47 -329 -354.64 3.06 2.1

AFRICA

ASIA

LATIN AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST

EUROPE