emarketer webinar: key trends in ecommerce
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Made possible by
Key Trends in Ecommerce
Yory Wurmser
Retail Analyst
January 22, 2015
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Agenda
Ecommerce forecast overview
Mobile’s impact on the path to purchase
How is ecommerce integrating with the physical world?
Why is flexibility important for etailers?
How can you personalize ecommerce without seeming
creepy?
Twitter – #eMwebinar
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
2015 will be a strong year for US total retail and
ecommerce sales
14.2%
4.3%
Total Retail Ecommerce
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Despite a thriving ecommerce market, the US
lags other countries in some key metrics
US
2015 ecommerce sales: $349.1b
2015 sales growth: 14.2%
% of total retail: 7.1%
Digital buyer penetration*: 64.9%
*of population
UK
$93.9b
14.5%
14.4%
74.3%
China
$562.7b
32.0%
12.0%
31.8%
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
China is the global leader in ecommerce sales;
it will account for
35.4%
of worldwide ecommerce sales in 2015
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Purchases made directly from mobile devices
will remain small: 1.6% of total US retail in 2015
Mcommerce will
grow 32.2% year
over year in 2015
Mcommerce will
account for 22%
of ecommerce
sales in 2015
$4.560 trillion
in offline retail sales
$76.79 billion
in mcommerce sales
$272.77 billion in
other ecommerce sales
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
The indirect effect of digital is huge; the majority
of ALL US retail sales are digitally influenced
Ecommerce will
influence 55.6%
of total retail
sales in 2015
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
A quarter of all US retail sales are influenced by
mobile*
$1 trillion +
of retail sales are influenced by mobile
*Deloitte, New Digital Divide 2014
**Deloitte figures projected onto eMarketer retail estimates
**
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Majority of US consumers will shop with their
mobile devices in 2015
166.3 million
mobile shoppers
81.2% of digital
shoppers
65.4% of US
population ages
18 and older
Increase
in mobile
shoppers:
+20.4M
in 12 mo.
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Smartphone shoppers continue to outnumber
tablet shoppers in the US
121.0 million145.3 million
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But US tablet owners are far more likely than US
smartphone owners to buy via their device
Average revenue
per smartphone
visit is roughly
one-third that
of a tablet visit*
*Bloomreach, June 2014
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Tablet and smartphone shopping differ
Tablets
At home
Extended research
General buying
Smartphones
Everywhere
Quick research
Last-minute buying
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The result: far more tablet sales
68%
of revenue from US mobile sales in 2015 will be on tablets
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Mobile devices have pulled even with PCs as
search tools for shoppers
42% of US
mobile users
cite mobile
devices as their
most important
media for finding
information
while shopping
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Smartphones have tools for all types of shopping
During holiday 2014 alone:
39% of US smartphone
owners planned to look up
items on search engines
38% expected to take a
picture of a gift to text to a
friend
Only 14% thought they would
use the phone to make a
purchase
Data from Placecast, Nov. 2014
Source: Victorinox via Royaldesign.com
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
A smartphone can’t open a bottle of wine, but it
can tell you all about it
Images from Google Play
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Ecommerce and physical shopping are less
distinct than they once were
Then Now
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Consumers don’t distinguish ecommerce from
brick and mortar; it’s all just shopping
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Transformed path to purchase has 3 major
attributes:
Omnichannel
Consumer-defined
Individual
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… And each attribute has an implication for
ecommerce
Path to Purchase
Omnichannel
Consumer-defined
individual
Implications for Ecommerce
Integration with physical world
Channel flexibility
Personalization
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
More than 80% of US shoppers want the ability
to check for nearby product availability
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Google is trying to serve location searches with
Local Inventory Ads (LIAs)
Real-time
synchronization
of inventory still
elusive
Advanced
retailers update
inventory feed
several times
a day
Image source: Google
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
LIAs still account for a small minority of product
listing ads, but some big brands are using them
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Etailers also working to create tools to directly
link physical objects with mcommerce sites
Beacons Visual Search
Image source: Amazon
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Beacons: Deployments are growing larger, but
some obstacles remain
Image source: Estimote
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Visual search: Still early days but starting to
power retailer apps, including Neiman Marcus’
“ From the moment of your inspiration
of seeing something that you like on
someone walking down the street
with a great bag, or in a magazine, or
wherever, you can take a
picture of it on our app, and
[get] immediate gratification.”
—Wanda Gierhart, CMO at Neiman Marcus
Image source: Estimote
Image source: iTunes
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Current applications of visual search:
Niche retail sectors: Identifying wine labels or spare
parts limits the library of images that a search tool
needs to identify
Discovery engine: For products based on styles or
designs, a product similar to what a consumer seeks
may suffice
General search: There are no consistently reliable
general visual search tools today, although several
aspire to become one
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers want flexibility
“ One of the things we’re always trying to do at Barnes &
Noble is serve our customers in ways in which they want
to be served, in ways in which they’d like to consume
content. In the book world we’re used to dealing with not
just channels but formats, so the point is: We want to
mix and match those channels and formats so
that we can find the right customer experience
where someone’s going to go, ‘Oh, that’s
perfect.’
—Jaime Carey, chief merchandising officer at Barnes & Noble
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
In-store pickup: Customers can fulfill online
orders themselves
40% of in-store
pickups lead to
additional in-store
purchases (Source: Shopatron)
10% of Target’s
online orders are for
in-store pickup Image source: Target.com
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Size of click and collect in the UK points to
possibilities for in-store pickup in the US
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Amazon experimenting with new channels to
approximate real-world shopping
Amazon locker
Pop-up store in San
Francisco
Refitted food truck selling
Kindles
Same-day delivery
Source: @emilysteel, twitter via HuffingtonPost
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Flexibility extends to fulfillment: More delivery
options
Value of
same-day delivery
shipments in the US
will increase sixfold
in 2015 to more
than $620 million
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Online pure plays open physical stores
“[Shoppers] buy almost 75% more if they
come in through the guide shop. The
reason is they’re getting a human
experience. The world has become
lonelier through technology and through
urbanization. Having a great
human one-to-one experience is
unique these days. And for me, it
builds enormous loyalty if I like the
people that I’ve transacted with.”
—Andy Dunn, CEO and founder of Bonobos
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Personalization is both more important and more
attainable
“ The smartphone is just not
going to work the same way
as your stores. You can
show me thousands of
products in your store.
You can only show me
five on the phone.
—Nicolas Franchet, head of retail
and ecommerce global vertical
strategy at Facebook
“ We have more data to
work with and more tools
that know how to take
advantage of that data.
We can do more, so
there’s really no
excuse to just use a
generic approach.”
—Kevin Lindsay, director of
product marketing at Adobe
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers rely on site recommendations
50% of US smartphone
users listen to
personalized website
recommendations
Twitter – #eMwebinar
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
How can you balance relevance with privacy?
Add a human touch
Focus on loyal customers
Use relevant data
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© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Human touch puts personalization in the context
of a conversation
“ You’re going to see a lot more brands bring more of their
brand into the online experience in very visceral ways.
We’re going to see more chat … and assisted
purchasing with a real human who can help
you figure out what’s best for you through the
computer interface.”
—David Edelman, partner and global co-leader of the digital
marketing and sales practice at McKinsey & Company
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Sears offers personalized advice from online
associates
Open to all
members of the
Shop Your Way
loyalty program
Members can earn
commissions from
sales by becoming
a personal
shopper for
friends
Source: www.sears.com
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
User-generated content also humanizes
ecommerce
Source: www.urbanoutfitters.com
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Loyal customers generally trust the retailer
already
“ If someone is already part of your loyalty
program, I think that person is going to be
much more open and receptive to much more
personalized information than someone who’s more of an
anonymous guest.”
—Mike McMurray, VP of business operations at Point Inside
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Receiving
personalized
product and
service
experiences is
the top benefit
of joining a
loyalty program
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Use data discreetly to minimize privacy
intrusions
“ People don’t need to know we’re sending them a
message because of where they actually are.
We just need to get them the right messages
at the right time in the right place, so it feels
magical.”
—Jennifer Kasper, group vice president for digital/new media and
multicultural marketing at Macy’s
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Takeaways
Ecommerce continues to grow rapidly in the US but innovations in
other countries point to areas of future growth
Although mobile commerce directly generates only 1.6% of total US
retail sales, it influences up to a quarter of all sales
The path to purchase is no longer linear
Ecommerce is becoming more connected to the physical world through
local inventory information, beacons and visual search
Consumers expect flexibility in all types of channels: sales, fulfillment
and consumption
Personalization is important but needs to be weighed against privacy
concerns. Retailers can find the balance by adding a human touch,
focusing on loyal customers and by being discreet
Twitter – #eMwebinar
INTEGRATED MARKETING CLOUD
Digital Marketing
Campaign Management
Marketing Operations
Marketing Analytics
Customer Data Management
33% OF THE FORTUNE 500
WORK WITH THE TERADATA
MARKETING CLOUD
Looking ahead to 2017
Digital represents a third
of total marketing spend
4 billion smartphones
are internet enabled
worldwide
Mobile commerce
reaches $1 trillion
Today’s major social
networks have all
monetized their user
bases
Several social networks
that haven’t been
created yet have 100+
million users
Big data is a $50B
market in the U.S. alone
Connect with customers
Anticipate Needs
Consistently deliver on
quality
Relationship-based
channels
Predictive analytics
Multichannel metrics
Da
ta-D
rive
n M
ark
etin
g
Data-Driven Marketing Drives Better Experiences
Bra
nd
Lo
ya
lty
A Data-Driven Marketing Approach
conversion path
customer
behavior
affinity
purchase
response
mobile/websocial
customer
attribution
spend
process
segmentatio
ndecision offer
governance
preference
compliance
delivery
demand responsive
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
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Yory Wurmser
Key Trends in Ecommerce
Omnichannel Trends 2015: Mobile is the New Retail Hub
Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Sales: eMarketer’s Estimates
and Forecast, 2013-2018
Visual Search & Recognition: On the Cusp of a New Era in
Retail
Product Listing Ads Google Dives into Comparison Shopping
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