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Electric Power Flows & Smart GridsElectric Power Flows & Smart Grids in the Context of the Overall Energy Policy
Ronnie Belmans
William D’haeseleer
K.U.Leuven Energy Institute
Overall Energy PolicyOverall Energy Policy
Global Energy ChallengesGlobal Energy Challenges
• Climate Change
Worsening climate change and emissions…
1912 2000
Global Energy ChallengesGlobal Energy Challenges
• Climate Change
• Security of Supply
Increasing dependence on imported oil and other fossil fuels…
Jan 01 2006 & 2009
Global Energy ChallengesGlobal Energy Challenges
• Climate Change
• Security of Supply
• Rising Energy Costs & Competitiveness
Rising energy costs and falling competitiveness
$ €
EU Energy PolicyEU Energy Policy
Regulation of
Monopolies
Innovation and
Competitiveness
Low Prices
And Efficiency
Primary Energy
Sources
Reliability and
Quality
Capacity
NaturePreservation
ClimateChange
Kyoto andPost-Kyoto
Inte
rnal
Mar
ket
Security of Supply
Environment
Lisbon Agenda
EU 20-20-20 targetsEU 20-20-20 targetsby 2020by 2020
Reduction of greenhouse gases
Energy consumption, Efficiency increase
Share of renewable energy
-20% -20%100%
+20%
8,5%
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Copenhagen has not lived up to the promises
Only “intentional declaration”
to keep T at max 2°C above pre-industrial levels
Climate ChangeClimate Change
2°C above pre-industrial levels means:
max 450 ppm CO2-eq in atmosphere
currently at ~ 280 ppm
EU keeps -20% instead of -30%
Greenhouse gas emissionsGreenhouse gas emissionsSectorial
Source: European Environment agency
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
IEA WEO 2009
Annual energy related CO2 worldwide emissions
450 ppm scenario
Climate ChangeClimate Change
To limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levelTo limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial level
Climate ChangeClimate Change
GHG Target:
-20% compared to 1990
-14% compared to 2005
EU ETS-21% compared
to 2005
Non ETS sectors -10% compared to 2005
27 Member State targets, stretching from -20% to +20%
A shared effort between sectors and MS
EU Energy MixEU Energy Mix
-20%
2083 Mt/yr
Gradient: -1.74%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
EU ETSEU ETS a predictable EU-wide cap beyond 2020
Starting point: 1974 Mt in 2013
1720 Mt
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
Envisioned CO2 reductions possible if:
- all options are considered
- clear policy decisions / right framework / permits!
- drastic increase energy R&D efforts
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
Need fertile ground for energy revolutionenergy revolution
• EU Strategic Energy Technology plan– 2020 targets– 2050 vision
• Must take decisions now to turn ocean liner
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
Ref:
Pacala & Socolow
Science 2004
Wedges approach
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
Ref: Socolow
Wedges approach
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
IEA WEO 2008 - technologies
450
550
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
IEA WEO 2009
Part of the answer forClimate Change
“may be”renewable energies
2.2%
9.4%
5%
15.4%
5.8%
17.1%
3.1%
6.9%
8.7%
10.3%
5.2%
2.9%
34.9%
15%
0.9%
4.3%
2.4%
23.3%
7.2%
20.5%
16.5%
16%
6.7%
28.5%
1.3%
38.9%
0%
RES share in 2005
EU-27 efforts in Renewables: RES share in 2005
(*) Figure adjusted byearly starter bonus
BEBGCZ(*)
DK(*)
DEEE(*)
IEELESFRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTRO(*)
SISKFISE(*)
UK
5%
5.3%
1.1%
2.6%
9.1%
6.7%
2.4%
7.4%
5.6%
5.8%
7.2%
6.3%
4.6%
1.6%
2.5%
4.6%
3.2%
4.5%
6.1%
5.2%
2.3%
2%
3.5%
1.8 %
4%
5.6%
8.2%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.5%
2.2%
9.4%
6.1%
17.0%
5.8%
18%
3.1%
6.9%
8.7%
10.3%
5.2%
2.9%
34.9%
15%
0.9%
4.3%
2.4%
23.3%
7.2%
20.5%
17.8%
16%
6.7%
28.5%
1.3%
39.8%
0%
Additional effort based on GDP per capita
RES share in 2005
Flat rateincrease of 5.5%
BEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISEUK
EU-27
EU-27 efforts in Renewables: Early starter adjustment & cap
Figures adjusted byearly starter bonusand cap
1.5
0.7
4.7%
7.5%
1.5
49%
13%
16%
13%
30%
18%
25%
16%
18%
20%
23%
17%
13%
42%
23%
11%
13%
14%
34%
15%
31%
24%
25%
14%
38%
15%
10%
RES share in 2020
BEBGCZDKDEEEIEELESFRITCYLVLTLUHUMTNLATPLPTROSISKFISEUK
EU-27 efforts in Renewables
Renewables & Distributed Generation
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
CO2 free by 2030?
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
CO2 free by 2030?
• Simplistic approaches misleading and lead to loss of credibility
• Must think in terms of energy fluxes (“power flows”) not energy “packages”Get energy at right place at right time
• Must optimize full integrated system with full dynamic characteristics
Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels
For Electricity system
Energy policy and actions
must be redefined in terms of
power flows and controllability
Dynamic behavior, flexibility of European generation system, globally and locally intelligent networks / smart grids intelligent networks / smart grids …
EU 2050
Energy losses
DOE: Smart Grid System Report, July 2009
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
in U
S
Electricity consumption
Eurelectric: The role of electricity 2007
Importance of Energy Efficiency
Energy Efficiency – CO2 abatement
Source: The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 Number 1
Energy Efficiency: Residential/ Tertiary
Eurelectric: The role of electricity 2007
• Fiscal incentives• Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
Reaching the targets
Reducing barriers
Effective and cost efficient support• RES-E support
• CO2 mitigation (EU ETS)
• Fiscal incentives• Industry standards• Energy Performance of Buildings Directive
Electric Power Flows Electric Power Flows & &
Smart GridsSmart Grids
Ronnie Belmans
Agenda
• Current situation
• Transition towards a SmartGrid
• What value is created?– Helping integration of renewables towards a
CO2-lean society
– Consumer engagement– Long term job growth
42
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
Current European power system
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
43
430 million people served
2602 TWh used (+1.1% 2007)
560 GW installed capacity @ 500€/kW = 280G€
230.000 km HV network @ 0.4M€/km = 90G€
Approx. 5.000.000 km MV+LV network
1500€ investment per EU citizen
Largest man-made system
Data provided by UCTE
2008
New grid challengesOverview
1. Future of energy demand
2. Generation paradigm shift
3. Ageing assets
4. Markets and regulation
44
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
New grid challenges1. Future of electricity demand
• Rise of consumption at 2% a year– 1250 TWh/year extra by 2030
• Dependence on imported fuels?
• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles?
45
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm
• Current grid = hierarchical• One-way pipeline
– Source has no realtime info on termination points– Peak demand reserve => inefficient use of grid
46
G GGeneration
Transmission
Distribution Demand
Traditional one-way supply system
Supply
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm
• Increasing wind generation & CHP units in Denmark
47
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm
• Importance of wind forecasting– Wind speed change of 1 m/s = variation of
320MW on a capacity of +-2400MW.– Control systems needed
to avoid excessivebackup capacity
49
“Fresh breeze”means somewhere
between 200 and 1,600 MW
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm
• Offshore wind farm projects in Belgium• Why offshore?
– Higher average wind speed– Less opposition
• Thorntonbank– 27-30km offshore– Planning
• 2007-2009: 6 turbines, totalling 30 MW
• 2009-2011: adding 24 turbines and offshore transformer
• 2012-2013: adding 24 turbines and 2nd 150kV cable
• Bank Zonder Naam– 35km offshore– Construction planned for 2010-2011
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
50
New grid challenges
• Thorntonbank
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
51
77
m6
3 m
44
m
18
4 m
New grid challenges
• Costal nodes 150kV– Zeebrugge 477MVA– Slijkens 358MVA– Koksijde 270MVA
• Slijkens – Koksijde– Underground– 33km– 240MVA– May 2006
52
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
Technical miracles of the 20th century1. Electrification
2. Automobile
3. Airplane
4. Safe and Abundant Water
5. Electronics
6. Radio and Television
7. Agricultural Mechanization
8. Computers
9. Telephone
10. Air Conditioning and Refrigeration
11. Interstate Highways
12. Space Exploration
13. Internet
14. Imaging Technologies
15. Household Appliances
16. Health Technologies
17. Petroleum and Gas Technologies
18. Laser and Fiber Optics
19. Nuclear Technologies
20. High Performance Materials
54(Source: National Academy of Engineering)
Still…new generation paradigms& ageing assets pose a serious challenge…
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
New grid challenges 3. Ageing assets
• Lagging investments in infrastructure– Rising demand = decreasing safety margins
57
Installation wave in European distribution systems in the 60s & 70s Replacement wave expected with business-as-usual approach Opportunity for new system architecture and operation schemes
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
New grid challenges 3. Ageing assets• More complex role and
increased responsibilities of network operators for planning and asset management.
• Comprehensive integrated system solutions required from suppliers
• A stable and predictable regulatory framework is required
• Lack of EU-wide standards for integrated asset management and network planning
• Long term vision
58
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
New grid challenges4. Markets and regulation
• Energy market
• Data + information need > 20G€ investment (based on 100€ per connection)
59
GenCo GenCo
DistCo DistCo
Retail Retail
GenCo
TransCo
DistCo
Retail
REGULATED
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
Challenges for 2020 and beyond
30GW of solar power in the South
?
Ackgt TechFreep
50GW of wind power in the North ?
Customer Interaction and Intelligent Appliances
New DC Links andInterconnections
Micro- generation in millions of homes ?
plus wind variation / cloud cover /
customer choice…
Smart Grids will be needed to ensure supply
security, connect and operate clean and
sustainable energy, and give value for
money
Smart Grids will be needed to ensure supply
security, connect and operate clean and
sustainable energy, and give value for
money
61Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
SmartGrids Vision
Central & dispersed sources
Smart materials and power electronics
Central & dispersedintelligence
Seamless integrationof new applications
End user real timeInformation & participation
Multi-directional ‘flows’
62
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
SmartGrids Vision
a smart metering revolution?a networks perspective
63
“an RTU at every service head”
the portal to demand & micro-gen services
operational visibility of local networks
intelligent demand control in emergencies
local network also the comms channel ?
new services to delight customers….Load-limiting & remote
disconnection
losses management & rewards
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
SmartGrids Vision
A renewed grid vision?
20202050
… ?
1948
1956
1974 2008
64
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
SmartGrids Vision
65
DSO’s
SmartGrid
ConsumersGenerators
TSO’s
Actions Actions
Ac
tion
s
ActionsActio
ns
Consumers
sustainable, economic and secure electricity supply
Technology
Standards Small scale generation
Regulations
Market considerations Consumer choice
Reduced environmental impact
Security of supply
Communication
Innovation
Self-healing
Energy Awareness
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
From passive towards active grids
Integration of decentralized generation?
• Passive grids = Fit and Forget– Fault Detection: power can come from any direction– Power Quality: responsibility?– Voltage Control: responsibility?– Grid Planning: deterministic peak planning, cfr ER P2/5 in UK
Significant grid problems at low levels of decentralized generation
• Active grids– Normal operation
• Curtailment of generation• Local power balance• Coordinated voltage control• Voltage regulators in-line
– Fault situations
67
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
Public Acceptancemuch more than technology…
70
Smart Grids extend beyond networks and will embrace transport, the built environment, the behaviours and engagement of customers, and will need societal acceptance.
Smart Grids extend beyond networks and will embrace transport, the built environment, the behaviours and engagement of customers, and will need societal acceptance.
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
Public Acceptancemuch more than technology…
71
Smart Grids will requireSmart Grids will require
Customer Acceptance and Participation in:Customer Acceptance and Participation in:
.…Intelligent Appliances & Demand Response.…Intelligent Appliances & Demand Response
…Micro-generation providing grid services…Micro-generation providing grid services
…Smart metering with 2-way communications…Smart metering with 2-way communications
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
JobsDirect• In the electricity sector:
– Direct utility SmartGrid– New ESCOs– Contractors
• Installation accelerators• Service providers
– SmartGrid equipment providers
• Cfr KEMA 13-01-2009
72
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
JobsIndirect
• Technologies dependent on SmartGrids– Renewable energy technology manufacturers– Distributed generation
• CHP heat and electricity demand matching
– PHEV• Charging cheaper when coordinated
– Telecommunication sector
73
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
Current Status
Global recognition of the benefits towards implementation of Smart Grids for all actors
Widespread rollout of “Smart” is technically possible during the next decade
? Complex and not fully clear
how this evolution is going
to take place in practice
75
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
Current Status
• Large-scale deployment not yet happened, why not? Some reasons:
– Limited pilot experiences so far– Limited statistical significance of the quantification
of benefits achieved in these experiences– Uncertainties regarding the global investments
• Key challenges for the Smart Grid deployment: – Largely of regulatory nature– To a lesser extent influenced by research and
development issues and by a lack of suitable demonstration pilot projects
76
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
What are the Elements for Success?Action now!
77
2020 targets
2050 targets
and beyond
REQUIRE application of today’s technologies
REQUIRE development of today’s technologies
REQUIRES research for tomorrow’s technologies
These actions must be put in hand NOW
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
SmartGrids Vision
Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)
78
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