el nino stills winter winds across the southern canadian prairies

ELNIÑOSTILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSSTHE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES (AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY)

SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

3,432

2,246

1,770

1,460

684

444322

236198137

Source: Canadian Wind Energy Association

wind energy (MW)

“add[s] significantly to the uncertainty in predicating the energy output of a wind farm at a particular location during its projected lifetime.

INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY

”

not well understood

INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY

“ ”

Source: Wan et al., Journal of Climate, 2010

Uncorrected wind speed records contain discontinuities caused by non-climatic effects

Wan, H. Wang, X.L. and Swail, V.R. (2010). Homogenization and trend analysis of Canadian near-surface winds. Journal of Climate 23, 1209-1225.

mean annual wind speed@ 10 m

photo: Andy van der Raadt

Wind farms on the Canadian Prairies produce nearly one gigawatt of electricity

mean annual wind speed@ 10 m

Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

Mean winter wind speed, southern Canadian Prairies

legend not to scale

Low-wind winters (1954 to 2006)

1969 • 1978 • 1983

1993 • 1995 • 1998

wind anomalies during the 1998 winter

legend not to scale

SST and geopotential height anomalies during low-wind winters

Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

Source: St. George and Wolfe, GRL, 2009

scalar wind anomalies@ 250 millibars

scalar wind anomalies@ 250 millibars

[The next strong El Niño] ... may also test the ability of Prairie wind farms to maintain expected energy outputs during a prolonged interval of unusually weak winds.

“”

Geophysical Research LettersDecember 2009

Sea-surface temperature anomalies during the 2009-2010 winter

Scalar wind anomalies @ 250 mb during the 2009-2010 winter

...our wind resources in the quarter were down approximately 30 percent, compared to what we would see in a normal year. As a result, expected production from our wind facilities was lower by roughly 200 gigawatt hours.

Stephen SnyderPresident and Chief Executive Officer

April 27, 2010

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ELNIÑOSTILLS WINTER WINDS ACROSSTHE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES (AND THAT’S BOTH GOOD AND BAD NEWS FOR THE WIND ENERGY INDUSTRY)

SCOTT ST. GEORGE STEPHEN WOLFE