eddy moors, alterra wageningen ur

Future Water Availability and Food Security: The case of the Nile Basin

Eddy MoorsChristian Siderius, Hester Biemans, Iwan Supit, Van Walsum, Smit, Roest, Van Ierland, Hellegers, Kabat

Contact: eddy.moors@wur.nl

The Nile

Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 based on RCP4.5

Delta Rain April-June (mm)

Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 based on RCP4.5

Delta number of wet days

Delta Rain April-June (mm)

Changes between 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 based on RCP4.5

Delta numberof wet days

Delta Rain April-June (mm)

Delta length largest period consecutive dry days

ETHIOPIA: Ministers suspend talks, while praising outcomes so far

EGYPT: Minister says Megech dam will not affect Egypt’s water supplies

“Egypt & Sudan outraged by Ethiopia's Blue Nile Dam”

EGYPT: Minister dismisses Ethiopian dam work

“Egypt internationalizes dam dispute with Ethiopia” AL monitor, Feb 23, 2014

“Egypt FM hails 'positive' Tanzanian stance on Ethiopia dam” Ahram online, 23, 2014

“Ethiopia Rejects Egypt Proposal on Nile as Dam Talks Falter” Bloomberg, Jan 8, 2014

“No deal in Nile River trilateral negotiations” Daily News Egypt, Jan 5, 2014

The Nile

1959 Water allocation treaty: 55.5 BCM for Egypt, 10 BCM evaporation losses, 18.5 BCM for Sudan

Countries are not food self-sufficient

SudanSouth SudanEthiopiaEritreaRwandaBurundiKenyaTanzaniaUgandaCongo

Population increases

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 20260

100

200

300

400

500

600Po

pula

tion

(milli

on)

Food security high on the political agenda

The solution lies here

WaterWise Nile - objective function

Y = YLU − CLWM + YHP −CRWM Y represents total benefits (USD/yr),

YLU gross margin of land use (USD/yr),

CLWM costs of local water management measures for supporting land use (USD/yr),

YHP gross margin of hydropower (USD/yr),

CRWM costs of regional water management for supporting the river, canal and reservoir system (USD/yr).

Constrained by available land and water resources and a predefined budget

Visibility Critical mass

ContinuityTrack record

Options in the Nile basin

Land use change

New hydropower reservoirs

Irrigation expansion● Groundwater irrigation● Local surface water irrigation● Nile irrigation

Conservation measures

Modules

Water module (hydrology) Food module (crop production) Energy module (hydropower)

Hydrology module

Bucket-type 1 km resolution FAO Aquacrop approach

Crop module

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

ETact/ETpot

Pro

duct

ion

(%)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

MaizePotato (Intensive)

MaizePotato

ETact/ETpotG

ross

Mar

gin

(US

D/h

a)

De Wit, Wageningen 1959 Gross MarginGM = Etact/Etpot(-) * maximum yield(tons/ha) * prices(USD/ton) – costs(USD/ha)

Hydropower module

Yield linear function of discharge until a certain maximum turbine capacity

0.08 USD / KWh

Country Hydropower station Investment (million USD)

Capacity (MW)

Maximum discharge (m3/s)

Uganda Owen Falls Existing 300 1800 Ethiopia Tis Abbay I&I I , Tana - Beles Existing 544 180 Sudan Roseires Existing 210 1689 Egypt Aswan Old Dam and High Dam Existing 2600 4152 Uganda Bujugali 730 250 1316 Uganda Kalagala 680 315 1344 Uganda Karuma Falls 450 200 577 Uganda Ayago, Murchison 1000 800 400 Ethiopia Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam 4700 5250 1750 Sudan Merowe 1700 1250 3600

Internal mechanism I: Water productivity

Internal mechanism II: Rain and ETpot

Results – 3 scenarios (2005 - 2025)• 76% increase in production needed• Egypt can gain some but loose a lot• Sudan (including South Sudan) and Uganda are key players

In gross margin (GM in million USD)National Food Self-Sufficiency Upstream Hegemony Basin Cooperation

Country

Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency

Overall food self-sufficiency

Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency

Overall food self-sufficiency

Contribution of irrigation to food self-sufficiency

Overall food self-sufficiency

Egypt 85% 85% 50% 50% 78% 78%Ethiopia 16% 100% 16% 87% 16% 92%Sudan ~0% 100% 56% 154% 36% 136%Uganda 0% 100% 0% 113% 0% 112%Other 0% 66% 0% 102% 0% 99%Basin 27% 92% 35% 102% 38% 107%

1566 million USD 

172 million USD

623 million USD 1154 million USD

210 million USD

Increase in agricultural gross margin (in USD/ha per year) between 2005 and 2025

Results

Conclusions

A different water allocation and improved irrigation can contribute up to 25% of the needed increase in production,

but the future of food security in the Nile basin lies in utilizing the vast (forgotten) potential of rainfed agriculture in the upstream interior.

Rainfed agriculture can cover more than 75% of the needed increase in food production by the year 2025.

Stabilizing regions and strengthening intra-basin cooperation via food trade seem to be better strategies than unilateral expansion of irrigation.

Thank you

Contact:eddy.moors@wur.nl

Points for discussion

Demand management Optimising allocation (not only in space, but also in time) Sustainable water use (based on the “natural” limits and

added with storage potential based on a long term risk assessment of droughts).

Precision agriculture, CSA