economics call november 30, 2009. existing home sales were up 10.1% new home sales were up 6.2%...

Economics Call

November 30, 2009

• Existing Home Sales were up 10.1%• New Home Sales were up 6.2%

– Up big because home prices falling

• Case-Shiller 3Q were up 3.1% compared to 2Q 2009– Down 9% vs 3Q2008

Home Sales

Home Sales

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-new-and-existing-home-sales-2009-11

• Consumer Spending up .7%• Personal income up .2% more in the 3Q than in

the 1st month of 4 Q• Consumer confidence increase to 49.5 from 48.7• Corporate Profits 3Q were up 10.6% annualized

basis• Domestic Non Financial up 8.1% annualized

basis

Early Data

Corporate Profits

http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/corpprof.htm

• Monday: Chicago PMI– 56.1 from 54.2

• Tues: ISM manufacturing index fell to 53.6% from 55.7%

• Thurs: Initial Unemployment, Productivity Numbers, ISM Services

• Friday: Non Farm Payroll

This Week:

• S&P Unchanged last week– Ended the week up 7.2% for November

• Lagging performance by small cap stocks– Russell 2000 lagging behind the Large Cap Indexes

• Last 6-8 weeks increasing bias from institutional buyers with Large Cap Stocks

• HP was good for tech sector, up 14%– Dell

Stock Market

11/3

/200

9

11/5

/200

9

11/7

/200

9

11/9

/200

9

11/1

1/20

09

11/1

3/20

09

11/1

5/20

09

11/1

7/20

09

11/1

9/20

09

11/2

1/20

09

11/2

3/20

09

11/2

5/20

09

11/2

7/20

09

11/2

9/20

09

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

Daily Change

Since Beginning of the Month

S&P 500

• Lowry Selling Pressure Index– Made New Lows– Lows Show Healthy Market

Lowry Selling Pressure Index

• Dubai World– Privately Run Government Owned Corporation– Owe 60 billion in Total Debt– 6-Month Moratorium on those Debts– Surprise to General Investors.

• Abu Dhabi and United Arab Emirates – Stand Behind this Debt – Big Oil Exporters.

Global Economy

• The Dollar Rallied Last Week on Geopolitical News

• Still a Safe Haven with Uncertainty in the World.

• Expect Dollar to be Flat Through the End of the Year.

Dollar