economic update for upstate new york
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Economic Update for Upstate New York
Richard DeitzRegional Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Buffalo Branch
richard.deitz@ny.frb.orgMarch 12, 2003
Upstate Job Growth: On Par with Weak US Performance
99
100
101
102
Jan-00 Jan-02
Source: US Department of Labor
Employment Index: 2000 = 100
US
Upstate
Upstate Job Growth By Sector in 2002Compared to the US; bubble size indicates relative size of industry in the region
Source: US Dept of Labor-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Services
Finance
Upstate Growth Rate
US Growth Rate
Construction
Utilities/Comm
Trade
Gov’t
Manufacturing
-6,358 -1.1%
-10,525 -1.9%
Total Change in NonfarmPayroll Employment net percent
Job Growth in Upstate Metros: 2000-2002
-1,325 -0.4%
+5,500 +1.2%
-1,850 -1.4%
-2,533 -2.1%
Buffalo
Syracuse
Rochester
Albany
Utica
Binghamton
US -0.7%
Average Job Loss in Postwar RecessionsLocal area Peak through Trough
-2.10%
-2.20%
-2.60%
-3.30%
-4.20%
-4.30%
-4.50%
-5.80%
US
Albany
Rochester
Syracuse
Binghamton
Utica
NYC
Buffalo
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
Job Loss in This RecessionLocal area Peak through Local Trough
-2.9%
-1.2%
-5.2%
-2.4%
-3.4%
-1.5%
-1.3%
-0.5%
US
Albany
Rochester
Syracuse
Binghamton
Utica
NYC
Buffalo
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
The least diverse economies suffering the biggest losses
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Buffalo Syracuse Albany Dutchess Utica Binghamton Rochester
Rochester & Binghamton: Least Diverse Industry MixIndustrial Diversity Index: 1997
Index
Source: Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, author’s calculations
Job Growth: 1990s Expansion vs Recessionrankings of the largest 100 metro areas
Las Vegas 1 8 Austin 2 61 Phoenix 3 69 Orlando 4 57 Atlanta 5 93
West Palm Beach 6 15 Tampa 7 36 Dallas 8 72
Salt Lake City 9 85Sarasota 10 16
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1990-2001 3/01 - 12/02
Key Local IndustriesNational employment declines
• Buffalo: rank #48• Autos - 7% • Fabricated metal products - 8%
• Rochester: rank #77• Instruments - 7%
• Seattle: rank #98• Aircraft - 16%
• San Jose: rank #100• Communications equipment - 9%• Electronic components - 25%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Manufacturing
current recession compared to the last recession
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Bing Syr Alb Roch Uti Buff
1990 Current
Manufacturing Job Losses
Index
US Loss: 1990
Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak toemployment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02 Source: U.S. Department of Labor
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Bing Syr Alb Roch Uti Buff
1990 Current
Manufacturing Job Losses
Index
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
US Loss: 1990
US Loss: Current
Note: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak toemployment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02
Upstate Losing its Share of Manufacturing Jobs
0.023
0.025
0.027
0.029
Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02
Source: US Department of Labor
Percent of U.S. Manufacturing Employment
15% Drop
0%
10%
20%
30%
Rochester Binghamton Buffalo Utica Syracuse Albany
1990 Current
Percent of Employment in Manufacturing
Index
Source: Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, author’s calculations
US Average: 1990
0%
10%
20%
30%
Rochester Binghamton Buffalo Utica Syracuse Albany
1990 Current
Percent of Employment in Manufacturing
Index
Source: US Department of Labor
US Average: current
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Binghamton Rochester Syracuse Utica Buffalo Albany
1990 Current
Net Manufacturing Employment Impactweighted contribution to recessionary job loss
Net Job Loss Attributable to Manufacturing
Source: US Department of LaborNote: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak toemployment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Binghamton Rochester Syracuse Utica Buffalo Albany
1990 Current
Source: US Department of LaborNote: 1990 recession is defined as employment peak toemployment trough; current recession defined as 3/01-12/02
Net Manufacturing Employment Impactweighted contribution to recessionary job loss
Net Job Loss Attributable to Manufacturing
Long Term Sluggishness
Long-Term Job Growth is Sluggish
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01
Source: US Department of Labor
Employment Index: 1991 = 100
US
Upstate
The Labor Force is Shrinking
95
100
105
110
115
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: US Department of Labor
Index: 1990 = 100
US
Upstate
As is the Population population growth 1990 to 2000
-5.3
-4.6
-1.6
-1.4
1.6
3.4
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Percent Change in Population
Rochester
Albany
Syracuse
Buffalo
Binghamton
Utica
Source: Bureau of the Census
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
Albany Syracuse Buffalo Utica Binghamton Rochester
Average Wage Growth per Worker: 1997-2001private sector, in core MSA county
Source: ES202
US Average
Conclusions• This recession has not been particularly
severe for the majority of upstate• except for Rochester and Binghamton
• The manufacturing impact has been somewhat worse than the last recession
• and upstate is losing its share of manufacturing jobs
• Long term stagnation and low wage growth are more concerning
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