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Monetary Policy Group June 2020
https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx
Economic and Monetary Conditions May 2020
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
Content 1 Executive Summary 1
2 The Thai Economy 3
2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector
2.2 Domestic Demand 5 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position
2.3 The global economy and external sector 7 The global economy External sector Balance of payments
2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 9 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates
2.5 Financial stability 11 Inflation Labor market External stability
3 Link to related statistics and contents 13
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
1
1. Executive Summary
In May 2020, the Thai economy continued to contract substantially due to external demand, both in tourism sector and merchandise exports. The former continued to extremely contract as a result of international travel restrictions. The latter further contracted from weakening trading partner demand. Consequently, domestic economic activities were affected especially private investment indicators and manufacturing production which contracted at a higher rate. Nevertheless, public spending continued to expand. Meanwhile, private consumption indicators contracted somewhat lower rate owing to the relaxation of lockdown measures and the government’s COVID-19 relief measures.
On the stability front, headline inflation was more negative due to lower fresh food and core inflation. Labor market was more vulnerable. The current account was nearly balanced. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from both the asset and the liability positions.
Details of the economic conditions are as follows:
The number of foreign tourist arrivals continued to contract extremely at 100 percent from the same period last year. There was none of foreign tourist arrivals for the second consecutive month due to the implementation of Thailand’s inbound travel restrictions. As a result, businesses and labor in tourism-related sector were severely affected.
The value of merchandise exports contracted sharply by 23.6 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, exports value shrank to 29.0 percent. The high contraction of exports was in almost all categories and markets due to weak trading partner demand and low global crude oil prices as well as the effect from drought leading to the high contraction in exports of sugar. However, there was only an agricultural product that can expand, mainly fruits to China.
Private consumption indicators continued to contract significantly from the same period last year in all spending categories due to weakening supporting factors including employment, income, and consumer confidence. However, the contraction rate was slightly lower from the previous month due to the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures leading some economic activities to resume operations, the government’s COVID-19 relief measures, and farm income which contracted at a lower rate. Together with the high level of inventories, weakening domestic and external demand contributing manufacturing production to contract at a higher rate.
Private investment indicators continued to contract at a higher rate from the same period last year, from both investment in machinery and equipment as well as construction. This reflected that businesses delayed their investment plans as excess production capacity remained high due to weak domestic and external demand, coupled with business’s concern over the economic outlook in the periods ahead that remained highly uncertain.
The value of merchandise imports contracted sharply at 34.2 percent from the same period last year. The contraction was in all categories including consumer goods, raw materials and intermediate goods, and capital goods, reflecting weak economic activities. The sharp decline in merchandise imports led to an increase in the trade balance although merchandise exports highly contracted.
Public spending continued to expand from the same period last year, reflecting a role of the government to support the economy when other economic drivers were muted. Nevertheless, excluding
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
2
transfer, public spending was flat due to the contraction in current expenditures and state enterprise’s capital expenditures after highly expanding in March and April although capital expenditures of central government continued to expand.
Overall economic stability remained sound, though more vulnerable. Headline inflation was more negative than the previous month due to a decline in fresh food and core inflation. Labor market was more vulnerable as reflected by the continued acceleration of the number of jobless claims on the social security system. The current account became balanced, after a deficit last month, from a large surplus in the trade balance. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus mainly from both the asset and the liability positions despite the net sell in portfolios by foreign investors.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
3
2.1 Supply
Farm income contracted at a lower rate from the same period last year, following agricultural outputs. However, agricultural prices turned into contraction after expanding continuously in the preceding period. Manufacturing production further contracted, consistent with weak domestic and external demand. Service sector continued to strongly contract as the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures was still in the initial stage.
Farm Income(%YoY) 2 1 2 1 2 2
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May
Nominal farm incomeP 1.2 1. 1. . . 1.8 .1 -4.3
Agricultural productionP -0.7 . 1. 1.2 . -6.5 12.2 -1.3
Agricultural price
1.9 . 2. 2. . 8.9 . .
Nominal Farm Income
Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Real Farm IncomeIndex sa (Jan 2014 = 100)
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
60708090
100110120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Real farm income sa Real farm income sa, 3mma
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandProduction index of petroleum does not include the production of diesel B10 and B20
(%YoY)Share2016R 2019
2019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP %MoM sa
Food & Beverages 1 . . . 1. 1.2 2. 11. . .2 . Automotives 1 . . 2.1 12. . 2 . 1 . . . . - Passenger Cars . . . 1 . . 2 . 1 . 2. .1 . - Commercial Vehicles .2 . 2. 1 . . 21. 1 . .1 .2 . - Engine 1. . . 1 .2 . 1 . 1 . . . . Petroleum . . .2 11. . 1 .2 . 1 . 1 . . Chemicals .2 .2 . 1.1 1. . .2 . 2. . Rubbers & Plastics . .2 . . . . . .1 21. 1 . Cement & Construction . 1.2 .2 2. . 1. 1.2 . . 1 . IC & Semiconductors . . .1 . 12.2 .1 . . 1 .1 1 . Electrical Appliances . . . . 1. . . . 1. .2Textiles & Apparels . .2 . . . 1 . . 22. . 2 .1Hard Disk Drive . . 1 . . . . . . . . Others 1 . . . . .2 .1 . .2 2 . 1 . MPI 1 . . 1. . .2 . . 1 .2 2 .2 . MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod
1 . 2. .1 1. 2. . 1 . .
Capacity Utilization (SA) . . . . . .1 . 2.
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
MPI Classified by Export Share
455565758595
105115125
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%
Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand
-5.3 %
-1.8 %
-9.1 %
%MoM sa
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
4
75
85
95
105
115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
** Index of work hours in manufacturing is not available from April to June 2020
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand
%MoM sa
-8.9 %
-23.1 %
Mar = -1.1 %**
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT
(%)Share2016R
2019 2020
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP
Food & Beverages 1 . . . . . . . .1
Automotives 1 . . . . 1.2 . 1 . 2 .1
Petroleum . .1 2. . . . . 1.
Chemicals .2 . . . . .2 1. .
Rubbers & Plastics . . . . . . . .
Cement & Construction . . . . . .2 . .2
IC & Semiconductors . . . . 1.1 . . .
Electrical Appliances . . 1. . . 2. 1. .
Textiles & Apparels . . . . 2. . . .
Hard Disk Drive . . .2 2. 1. 1. . .
Others 1 . . . . .1 . . .
CAPU sa 1 . . . . . .1 . 2.
Capacity Utilization (sa)
Source: Office of Industrial Economics
Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 17%)Market Services (share 83%)
Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
0
50
100
150
200
250
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Transport (8%) Information (5%)Trade (32%) Finance (14%)Professional Services (4%) Hotel & Restaurant (10%, RHS)
Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office,The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
5
2.2 Domestic Demand
30405060708090
100
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)
Average 5 years = 76.2
Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand
%YoY 2 2 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP %MoM sa
Non-durables index 2.3 3.1 .4 .6 1.1 1.1 -11.8 -7.5 6.4Semi-durables index . .2 .1 .7 .8 -1.6 -5.3 -7.2 -1.8Durables index 2. 2. .2 . . -12.0 37.5 32.0 9.5Services index 2. 3.0 2. 2.1 .1 -10.0 -30.9 -29.7 0.9
less Net tourist spending . . .2 .2 2. -41.0 -89.0 86.8 25.6
PCI 2.5 .5 .6 .3 1.9 1.6 -14.4 -12.5 3.0
Private Consumption Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Semi-durable Index sa,3mma
Durable Index sa, 3mma
Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Source: Bank of Thailand
90100110120130140150160
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Nielsen’s FMCG Index excl. alcohol and tobacco sa, 3mma
Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100
Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand
% YoY 20192 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP %MoM
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) . .2 . .2 . 2. . . -0.6
Construction Materials Index . . 2. . . . . 2. -14.3Real Imports of Capital Goods . . . . . .2 . 2 . -5.2Real Domestic Machinery Sales . . .2 . . . . . 2.4Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment . 2. . 2. . . 2 . . -10.6
Private Investment Index 2. .2 . 2. .2 . . 2. -2.2
Private Investment Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
Private consumption indicators continued to contract considerably from the same period last year, albeit at a slower pace after the relaxation of COVID-19 containment measures. Private investment indicators contracted at a higher rate, consistent with weak demand. Meanwhile, public spending, excluding transfers, remained flat compared with the same period last year.
Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad
Source: Bank of Thailand
20406080100120140160180
8090
100110120130140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100
Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
6
60
110
160
210
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
010203040506070
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2017-19 FY2019 FY2020
May-1.5%
May8.1%
Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Billion baht
Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2018-19 FY2019 FY2020
State Owned Enterprises Capital ExpenditureBillion baht
May-11.2%
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment
Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019
FY2019 FY2020Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar Apr May
Revenue 2,513 2 2(%YoY) (6.8) . 2. 2. 2. . . 2. . . . Expenditure1/ 2,882 2 2 (%YoY) (3.1) .2 2.2 . . . . . . 2 . . Budgetary B/L -368 2 22 2 Non-Budgetary B/L -28 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Cash B/L (CG) -396 2 2 2 2 2 Primary balance 2/ -258 2 2 2 22 2 Net Financing 506 2 2 Treasury B/L 633 2 2 2
Source : Bank of Thailand
Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)
30
40
50
60
Jan 2014
Jul Jan 2015
Jul Jan 2016
Jul Jan 2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul Jan 2020
BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)
Aug 20 41.1
May 20 .
Business Sentiment Index
Investment in Construction1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa
(Jan 2014=100)
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO, Department of Public Works and Town & Country Planning, calculated by Bank of Thailand
4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
70
80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)3 per. Mov. Avg. (Construction Materials Index)
Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Real Imports of Capital Goods Real Domestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
7
2.3 The Global Economy and External Sector
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayMay
(%MoM)
Consumer Raw material & Intermediate
o/w Fuel o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel
Capital
Others
Total (BOP Basis)
Ex. Gold
Ex.Gold&Fuel %MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
Import ValueApr 2020 = 15.3 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 15.3 Bn USD
May 2020 = 12.7 Bn USD
Ex.Gold = 12.6 Bn USD
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
%YoYShare 2019
2019P
2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr May May(%MoM)
Agriculture Fishery Manufacturing
Agro-manufacturing Electronics Electrical
Appliances
Automotive Machinery & Equipment
Petroleum Related Total (BOP Basis)
Ex. Gold Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related
Export ValueApr 2020 = 17.9 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 15.4 Bn USD
May 2020 = 15.9 Bn USD
Ex. gold = 14.6 Bn USD
The current account was nearly balanced after a deficit last month. The capital and financial accounts posted a surplus both from the asset and the liability positions.
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
PH
IDMYTH
TWCN
SGKR
85
95
105
115
125
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
US (May) Euro Area* (Apr) Japan (Apr)
G3 Retail Sales
Note: *Volume Index Source: Bloomberg
Index (Jan 2015 = 100)
May 20
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Total China (28%) Malaysia (10%)East Asia ex. CN MY (30%) Europe ex. Russia (13%) Russia (4%)India (5%)
Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)
Tourists Classified by Nationality
Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Balance of Payments
Billion USD 2019P201 P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayE YTD
Trade Balance
Exports (f.o.b.)
%YoY
Imports (f.o.b.)
%YoY
Net Services, Income & Transfers
Current Account
Capital and Financial Account
Overall Balance
Millions of USD 2019P 2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayE YTD1. Assets TDI - Equity - Reinvestment of earnings
Thai portfolio investment - Equity security investment - Debt security investment
Loans Other investments - Trade credits - Deposits abroad
2. Liabilities FDI - Equity - Reinvestment of earnings
Foreign portfolio investment - Equity security investment - Debt security investment
Loans Other investments - Trade credits - Deposits abroad
Total financial flows (1+2)
Net Financial Flows
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
%YoY (Share in 2019)
20192019 2020
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayP
China (27.6%)
Malaysia (10.5%)
Asia ex. China & Malaysia (30.4%)
Russia (3.7%)
Europe ex. Russia (13.2%)
India (5.0%)
Others (9.6%) Total(million persons)
(39.8)
(19.8)
(20.0)
(10.3)
(6.7)
(0.0)
(0.0)
Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
9
2.4 Monetary and Financial Conditions
Total corporate financing decreased compared with the previous month from debt securities. New loans extended to private sector expanded from the previous month, but at a slower pace, from corporate loans. The monthly average of Thai baht against the U.S. dollar in May 2020 and the NEER appreciated compared with the previous month.
Commercial Bank Interest Rates*% p.a. 2018 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q /19 Q4/19 May 20 25 Jun 20
-month deposit rate
Average of 5 largest Thai banks**
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MLR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MRR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
1.37
1.46
1.11
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.46
8.54
1.42
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.47
8.54
1.46
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.50
8.54
1.4
1.
1.1
6.28
7.31
7.58
8.
8.54
1.33
1.51
1.11
6.08
7.31
7.59
8.
8.44
0.54
1.13
0.66
5.36
6.75
6.91
6.00
7.22
7.89
0.49
1.00
0.60
5.36
6.71
6.91
6.00
7.12
7.89
End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya
Source: Bank of Thailand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct-1
8
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y
Government Bond Yields
Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA
As of 25 Jun 20
0.50
0.860.51
1.30
0.45
Note: net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others.
Billion baht Net Changes in Outstanding Loans
-1.2
-0.6
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
-120-80-40
04080
120160200240280
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9Oc
t-19
Jan-
20
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9Oc
t-19
Jan-
20
MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)
BusinessHousehold
%
Note: (1) Business credits : net changes in outstanding loans extended by other depository corporations, other financial corporations, non-residents and others;
(2) Debt : net changes in outstanding bonds (market value); (3) Equity : new issuance at par valueSources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET
Billion baht
Changes in Total Corporate Financing
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-
17
Apr-1
7
Jul-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jan-
18
Apr-1
8
Jul-1
8
Oct-1
8
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Jul-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA
May 20P
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
10
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.0108110112114116118120122124126128130132
29-D
ec-1
7
16-F
eb-1
8
5-Ap
r-18
28-M
ay-1
8
13-Ju
l-18
3-Se
p-18
19-O
ct-1
8
7-De
c-18
28-Ja
n-19
15-M
ar-1
9
8-M
ay-1
9
26-Ju
n-19
14-A
ug-1
9
30-S
ep-1
9
18-N
ov-1
9
8-Ja
n-20
25-F
eb-2
0
13-A
pr-2
0
2-Ju
n-20
NEER25
USDTHB (RHS)
Note: Monthly average rate Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Exchange RatesIndex (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)
Appreciation
Jun USDTHB = 31.19NEER25 = 124.02
As of 25 Jun 2020
5.9%
1.9%
0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
-0.5% -0.6%-1.1%
5.2%
2.6%
-0.1%
0.5%0.8%
-0.4%
1.8%
3.4%
1.0%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
2.3%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
IDR THB INR VND TWD JPY SGD EUR PHP MYR CNY KRW GBP
Avg of May 20 compared to avg of Apr 20
Avg of Jun 20 compared to avg of May 20
Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: Avg-period data, + = Appreciation against USD
Exchange Rate Movement
Jun 2020(Average data
until 25 Jun 2020)
Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand
% p.a.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
29-D
ec-1
730
-Jan-
1827
-Feb
-18
28-M
ar-1
830
-Apr
-18
30-M
ay-1
827
-Jun-
1825
-Jul-1
827
-Aug
-18
24-S
ep-1
824
-Oct
-18
21-N
ov-1
821
-Dec
-18
22-Ja
n-19
20-F
eb-1
920
-Mar
-19
22-A
pr-1
923
-May
-19
21-Ju
n-19
19-Ju
l-19
20-A
ug-1
917
-Sep
-19
16-O
ct-1
914
-Nov
-19
16-D
ec-1
915
-Jan-
2013
-Feb
-20
12-M
ar-2
010
-Apr
-20
13-M
ay-2
011
-Jun-
20
HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD
As of 25 Jun 2020
Regional Exchange Rate Volatility
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
11
2.5 Financial stability
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)
Headline inflation contribution%YoY
May-3.44%
( ) Share in Headline Inflation
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Lay-Off Claims (RHS)account for 22% of total jobless claims**
Ratio of Jobless Claims to Total Contributors in Section 33 %, SA %, SA
Jobless Claims
Note: Employees who contribute to social security system (Section ) account for % of total employment.
** 2020, 5-month averageSource: Social Security office, calculated by Bank of Thailand
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
OtherTransportationTradeHotel & TourismRestaurant & RecreationOther ManufacturingElectronicRubbers & PlasticsAutomotives
Lost Working Hours Index (Man-Month*) from the Temporary Suspension of Business (Section 75**)
Man
-Mon
th (1
,000
Wor
kers
-Mon
th
Note: * Man-Month = Number of workers x ( Number of missing working days in a month / Number of days in a month)
** The Section 75 number is calculated by summarizing firms and employees reported to the Ministry of Labour for the temporary suspension of business.
Source: Department of Labour Protection and Welfare, Ministry of Labour, calculated by Bank of Thailand
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul Jan2020
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
Sources: Ministry of Commerce calculated by Bank of Thailand
Core inflation contribution%YoY
May0.01%( ) Share in Core Inflation
Headline inflation was more negative stemming from the decline in fresh food prices and core inflation. Labor market was more vulnerable. External stability remained resilient, providing sufficient cushion against global financial market volatility.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
12
External Stability Indicators
Criteria 2019P2019P 2020P
H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayE
Solvency Indicators
Current Account / GDP (%)
Debt / GDP (%) < /
Debt / XGS1/ (%) < /
Debt Service Ratio (%) 8 6 7
Liquidity Indicators
Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time
Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times
ST Debt / Total Debt (%)
Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)
Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
External Debt Outstanding
Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
Billion USD 2019P 2019P 2020P Change May20-Apr20H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Apr MayE
1. General government 2. Central Bank* 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) 4. Other Sectors
- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) - Non Financial Corporations (NFC) O/W Foreign Trade Credit
5. Total Short-term (%) Long-term (%)
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
13
3. Link to related statistics and contents
Agricultural sector
Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices
Agricultural production: Agricultural products
More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector
Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)
Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate
More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th Real estate sector
Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)
More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance
Central government revenue: Government revenue
Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)
Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)
More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market
Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)
Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)
Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)
More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
14
Inflation
Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)
More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th
Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand
Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index
Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report
Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey
Economic and Monetary Conditions, May 2020
15
Contact
Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637
Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650
Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300
Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096
Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647
Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639
Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877
The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147
External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726
Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186
Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090
Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645
Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636
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