ecmwf forecast products user meeting, e. zsoter, 14-16 june 2006 severe weather forecasts severe...
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ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Severe Weather Forecasts
Ervin Zsoter
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Outline
Extreme weather forecast products, EFI and other forecast indices, extreme weather risk maps
New EFI climate
Verification of extreme weather forecasts
Case studies
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
)1(
)1()(
cc
cf
QpQ
QpQpSOT
Extreme Weather Forecast Indices
1
0)1(
)(20 dpEFI
pp
pFp f
pFppSPS c)(
-30 oC -20
oC -10
oC 0
oC
2m Temperature
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Pro
babi
lity
not t
o ex
ceed
thre
shol
d
Climate
+108h (EFI0=71.3% SPS
0.9=10.0% SOT
0.9=39.9%)
Empirical Distribution Functions 67.7oN /18.1
oE
2m Temperature forecast VT Monday 31 October 2005 12UTC
Qc(p)- Qc(1)
Qf(p)- Qc(1)
SPS (p)
1
0)1(
)(20 dpEFI
pp
pFp f
SPS (p)
SOT+(p)
Ff(p) p
p (Fc(p))
Shift in Probability Space (SPS): Distance between the forecast and climate distributions in the probability space at the p-percentile
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI): Scaled integral distance between the forecast and climate probability distributions
Shift of Tails (SPS):Proportional distance between the forecast and climate distributions in the meteorological variable space at the p-percentile
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
2m temperature EFI-s
40°N
50°N
60°N
40°W
40°W
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
60°E
60°E
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.50.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
40°N
50°N
60°N
40°W
40°W
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
60°E
60°E
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.50.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
40°N
50°N
60°N
40°W
40°W
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
60°E
60°E
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.50.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
12 UTC EFI
Daily max EFI
Daily min EFI
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Examples with the Extreme Weather Indices
50°N
60°N
70°N
40°W
40°W
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
2m temperature, VT: Monday 31st 12 UTC, October 2005, D+5Extreme Forecast Index (order=0), Shift in Probability Space and Shift of Tails (Q10 & Q90)
2
4
6
8
10-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
50
60
70
80
90
100
40°N
50°N
0°
0°
20°E
20°E120h total precipitation, VT: Friday 3th 06 UTC - Wednesday 8th 06 UTC, March 2006, D1-D5Extreme Forecast Index (order=0), Shift in Probability Space and Shift of Tails (Q90)
2
4
6
8
1050
60
70
80
90
100
SOT an SPS may highlight areas relatively far from
the EFI maximum
2m temperature
120-hour total precipitation
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Multi-parameter Extreme Weather Risk map, based on the EFI
-24 -24 -20
-20
-20 -16
-16
-16
-16-12
-12-12
-12
-8
-8-8
-8
-8-8
-8-4 -4
-4
-4
-4
-4-4
-4
-4
0
0
0
00
0 0
0
4
4
4
4
44 4
4
4
8
8
8
8 8
8
88
8 8
8
8
8
8
8
12
12
12
1212
12
12
12
12
12
12
12 12
12
12
12
12 12
16
16
16
1616
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
20
20
20
20
2020
20
20
20
2020
20
24
24
24
24
24
80°S80°S
60°S60°S
40°S40°S
20°S20°S
0°0°
20°N20°N
40°N40°N
60°N60°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W
140°W
140°W
120°W
120°W
100°W
100°W
80°W
80°W
60°W
60°W
40°W
40°W
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E
40°E
40°E
60°E
60°E
80°E
80°E
100°E
100°E
120°E
120°E
140°E
140°E
160°E
160°E
1000 hPa Z ensemble mean and EFI values (above 50% & 80%) for 24h-TP, 10m wind speed and 2m-temperatureWeather anomalies predicted by the EPS, RT: 20060303 00 UTC, VT: 20060304
Unusual warm Extreme warm Unusual cold Extreme cold Unusual wind Extreme wind Unusual TP Extreme TP
http://w3ec2.ecmwf.int/metops/efitest/
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
-8
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
8
8
8
8
8
8
12
12
12
12
12
16
16
40°N
50°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E40°E
1000 hPa Z ensemble mean and EFI values (above 50% & 80%) for 24h-TP, 10m wind speed and 2m-temperatureWeather anomalies predicted by the EPS, RT: 20060303 00 UTC, VT: 20060304
Unusual warm Extreme warm Unusual cold Extreme cold 0.5 - 0.8 0.8 - 1.18 0.5 - 0.8 0.8 - 1.18
Extreme Weather Risk map
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
0 mm 10 mm 20 mm 30 mm 40 mm 50 mmThreshold (24h-acc [6-6])
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Pro
babi
lity
not t
o ex
ceed
thre
shol
d
Climate
+30h (EFI0=88.0%)
+42h (EFI0=81.1%)
+54h (EFI0=64.8%)
+66h (EFI0=71.2%)
+78h (EFI0=69.1%)
+90h (EFI0=73.2%)
+102h (EFI0=70.6%)
+114h (EFI0=40.8%)
+126h (EFI0=40.2%)
+138h (EFI0=42.9%)
Empirical Distribution Functions 43.8oN /25.8
oE
24h-acc precip forecast VP Tuesday 28 February 2006 06UTC-Wednesday 1 06UTC
Evolution of EPS forecast distributions, relative to the climate
EFI is indicated as a measure of the level of extremety
Currently prepared for the location of maximum EFI in a 10*10 degrees gridbox
Different diagram for different verifying lead times (D+1 – D+5)
For 2m temperature, 10m wind speed and 24h total precipitation
Distribution diagrams attached to the Extreme Weather Risk map
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Recent progress – Severe Weather Risk map for the Monthly Forecast System
-5 oC 0
oC 5
oC 10
oC
Threshold (2m T)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Pro
babi
lity
not t
o ex
ceed
thre
shol
d
Climate
+432h (EFI0=-55.7%)
+600h (EFI0=-39.1%)
+768h (EFI0=-33.2%)
Empirical Distribution Functions 52.1oN /18.3
oE
2m weekly mean temperature forecast VT Monday 20 March 2006 00UTC-Monday 27 00UTC
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
New Medium range Model Climate
Running an additional EPS control re-forecast suite in dynamical adaptation mode (48h forecast)
Initial conditions from ERA40 (1971-2000)
Use latest resolution/ physics
12 UTC daily runs (for 30 years each day)
Same post-processing as for EPS (surface + a few pressure and PV levels)
Cost is only like adding six 10-days Control runs per day
Will allow an immediate adaptation of the EFI to any EPS model upgrade, and also an extension of the EFI (and other calibrated probabilistic products) to other parameters than rain, T2m and wind
In MARS: “Ensemble Forecast Atmospheric Hindcast” = efhc and “Ensemble Forecast Wave Hindcast” = ewhc.
Operational since 1 February 2006 (high resolution upgrade)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
-5 oC 0
oC 5
oC 10
oC 15
oC 20
oC
2m Temperature
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pro
babi
lity
not
to e
xcee
d th
resh
old EPS forecast
Old climate (EFI0=19.8%)
New clim +-0 day (EFI0=32.7%)
New clim +-3 days (EFI0=35.3%)
New clim +-7 days (EFI0=35.5%)
New clim +-15 days (EFI0=31.8%)
Empirical Distribution Functions for Reading (51.46oN /-1.33
oW)
2m Temperature forecast VT Friday 20 January 2006 12UTC, +108h
New EPS Control Climate for the EFIExample for Reading, diff. distribution sampling window from ±1 to ± 15 days
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI with old and new model climatology
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E2m temperature EFI-old, VT: Monday 31 October 2005 12 UTC, t+108
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.5
-0.30.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E2m temperature EFI-new, VT: Monday 31 October 2005 12 UTC, t+108
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.5
-0.30.3
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
EFI with old climate
EFI with new climate
3 calendar month of archived EPS forecasts
from previous years
EPS control model reruns for years 1971-2000,
31 days from each year
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts 80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
climate is based on years 1971-2000 and operational analyses are taken as observationsERA-40 climate and observed anomaly of 2m temperature (K) for month of July (average of 2003-2005)
-10
-5
-3
-1
-0.5
-0.20.2
0.5
1
3
5
1080°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
measured by the Extreme Forecast Index (%) for 2m temperature, month of JulyDifference between the new ERA-40 based climate and the old pseudo-climate
-100
-50
-30
-20
-10
-55
10
20
30
50
100
EFI with old and new model climatology
“Observed anomalies” July 2003-2005
referenced to ERA-40 (1971-2000)
Difference between the old and new EFI
climate (measured by the EFI)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Verification of Extreme Weather Forecasts
Follow up of the study made by Francois Lalaurette & Federico Grazzini in 2005 (for 24h total precipitation EFI, 2003 Oct – 2005 May)
Verification of the EFI (based on the old pseudo-climate and the new EPS control re-forecast model climate) and also the EPS probability for extreme events
EFI is regarded directly as probability and truncated at 0 (no transformation is applied)
For parameters of 2m maximum temperature and 24-hour total precipitation
D+1, D+3, D+5, D+7 and D+9
For period of 2005 July – 2006 May
Observational climate is based on the Climate Atlas of Europe (Météo-France) and the new EPS control model climate
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Definition of the extreme events
The atlas contains monthly means, upper and lower quintiles, daily extreme values and different frequency indices for temperature, precipitation, wind gust and sunshine duration for ~ 700 selected European stations. The climate period is 1971-2000.
Monthly extreme events are defined as: at least as extreme as the 99.5 percentile of the daily climate distribution based on sampling over the month
Average return period of 6-7 years. Apprx. the 5th most extreme case (99.5 percentile -> 1/200) in the monthly sample (size ~ 900, 30days*30years).
It is assumed that the model climate behaves similarly to the observed climate (similar shape characteristics of the distributions).
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Definition of the extreme events
Monthly thresholds for extreme events (DayObs995) =
MonObsQ80 * (DayEpsQ995 / MonEpsQ80)
MonObsQ80 & MonEpsQ80 = Upper quintile of distribution of monthly means in the observation & EPS model climate (per station, per month)
MonEpsQ80 = Upper quintile of distribution of monthly means in the EPS control re-forecast climate (per station, per month)
Daily extreme thresholds are created by interpolating between adjacent months
Using GTS synop ~1700 (tp24) & ~2500 (tmax24) extreme events were found during the period July 2005 – May 2006
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Examples of extreme thresholds
40°N
50°N
60°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 50 50 - 70 70 - 100
40°N
50°N
60°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
10 - 20 20 - 25 25 - 30 30 - 35 35 - 40 40 - 50
24-hour total precipitationMay 16th
2m daily maximum temperatureJuly 16th
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI based on new versus old climateROC, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 MayROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ility
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
Modified ROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI based on new versus old climateROC, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 MayROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ility
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
Modified ROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI based on new versus old climateROC, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 MayROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ility
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
Modified ROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI based on new versus old climateROC, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 MayROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ility
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
New D+7 Old D+7
Modified ROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
New D+7 Old D+7
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI based on new versus old climateROC, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 MayROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ility
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
New D+7 Old D+7
New D+9 Old D+9
Modified ROC, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
New D+7 Old D+7
New D+9 Old D+9
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 24-h total precipitation, 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 24-h total precipitation, 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 24-h total precipitation, 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 24-h total precipitation, 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 24-h total precipitation, 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
New D+9 Prob D+9
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
New D+9 Prob D+9
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 2m maximum temperature 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 2m maximum temperature 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 2m maximum temperature 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 2m maximum temperature 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EPS probabilitiesROC, 2m maximum temperature 2005 July – 2006 May
ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Rate
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
New D+9 Prob D+9
Modified ROC, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
New D+9 Prob D+9
FC / OBS YES NO
YES H F
NO M R
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EFI old & EPS probReliability diagram, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 May
REL diag, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
REL diag, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EFI old & EPS probReliability diagram, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 May
REL diag, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
REL diag, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EFI old & EPS probReliability diagram, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 May
REL diag, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
REL diag, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EFI old & EPS probReliability diagram, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 May
REL diag, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
New D+7 Old D+7
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
REL diag, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
EFI new versus EFI old & EPS probReliability diagram, 24-hour total precipitation 2005 July – 2006 May
REL diag, new EFI and EPS prob
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
bab
ilit
y of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Old D+1
New D+3 Old D+3
New D+5 Old D+5
New D+7 Old D+7
New D+9 Old D+9
F/(R+F) F/(H+F)
REL diag, new and old EFI
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0False Alarm Ratio
Pro
babi
lity
of
Det
ecti
on
New D+1 Prob D+1
New D+3 Prob D+3
New D+5 Prob D+5
New D+7 Prob D+7
New D+9 Prob D+9
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Extreme event case study - I“Swiss flood” - heavy precip in August 2005
40°N
50°N
0°
0°
20°E
20°E
10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 50 50 - 75 75 - 100 100 - 200
Observed 24-hour total precipitation22 August 2005
Extreme events
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
“Swiss flood” - heavy precip in August 2005
D+9
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
“Swiss flood” - heavy precip in August 2005
D+7
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
“Swiss flood” - heavy precip in August 2005
D+5
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
“Swiss flood” - heavy precip in August 2005
D+3
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
“Swiss flood” - heavy precip in August 2005
D+1
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
60°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E
10 - 14 14 - 18 18 - 22 22 - 26 26 - 30
Extreme event case study - IIHeat wave in West Europe - in October 2005
Observed 24-hour maximum temperature, 30 October 2005
Extreme events
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Heat wave in West Europe - in October 2005
40°N
50°N
60°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
D+9
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
60°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Heat wave in West Europe - in October 2005
D+7
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
60°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Heat wave in West Europe - in October 2005
D+5
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
60°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.1
Heat wave in West Europe - in October 2005
D+3
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
40°N
50°N
60°N
20°W
20°W
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.1
Heat wave in West Europe - in October 2005
D+1
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Summary - I
After careful consideration and survey for demands, the range of extreme forecast products (forecast indices, maps) can be extended
New extreme indices (SOT, SPS) ?!
New parameters (Tmax, Tmin, Waves, etc) ?!
Extended forecast range (D+6 to monthly range – VAREPS) ?!
The new ERA40 based EPS control model re-forecasts provide more reliable base for any extreme forecast product at present or in the future
Further developments (possible use of EPS re-forecasts made for calibration purposes) ?!
The first set of verification results are encouraging
Need for detailed, quality controlled, representative observation climate
ECMWFForecast Products User Meeting, E. Zsoter, 14-16 June 2006 Severe Weather Forecasts
Summary - II
The first set of verification results are encouraging
The better climate sampling with the 30-year model climate seems to be reflected in the verification result by slightly better ROC for the new EFI
In terms of resolution the EFI also seems to over perform little bit the raw EPS probabilities for extreme events
However statistical calibration is heavily needed in order to decrease the strong over forecasting tendency of the EFI (taken directly as probability)
Lot of more work is needed to further investigate the characteristics and value of these extreme forecast products
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