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Brussels, September 20, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Valerio De Molli
M i P t Th E H A b ttiManaging Partner, The European House - Ambrosetti
© 2013 The European House - Ambrosetti S.p.A. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. This document is property of TEH-A. It may not bereproduced, memorized for storage in an electronic data base or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic,mechanical, photocopying, recording or other), in whole or in part, without the express written consent of TEH-A.
Echi da Villa d’Este
I dIndexIntelligence on the World, Europe and Italy(macrostructure of the program)(macrostructure of the program)
A Way Out Does Exist!
The Agenda for EuropeThe Agenda for Europe
EU Manufacturing and 4 competitiveness driversFinancial SystemInnovationRegulatory environmentEntrepreneurship
European Best Performers in Times of Crisis
The Observatory on Europe EU-27 Competitiveness Index
The Agenda for Italy
Doing Business in Italy: a difficult match or a well of opportunities? (anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
2
(anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
Echi da Villa d’Este
AAnnexes
Intelligence On The World, Europe, and Italy – Program
European Best Performers in Times of Crisis – Complete study
The «Observatory on Europe» initiative – Think tank concept, y p p
methodological approach and deliverables
Ob t E 2013 B i L d SObservatory on Europe 2013 Business Leaders Survey
3
Echi da Villa d’Este
M th d l i l tMethodological note
The following contents have been extracted from various sources:
□ Welcoming remarks by Valerio De Molli at Villa d’Este Forum g y(September, 6-8 2013)
□ Interventions and presentations by Villa d’Este Forum’s key-note speakers
□ Observatory on Europe 2013 Report
□ Observatory on Europe 2013 Business Leaders Survey
□ Valerio De Molli’s speech at the upcoming Tech Crunch event (Rome, September 26 2013)
4
Echi da Villa d’Este
I dIndexIntelligence on the World, Europe and Italy(macrostructure of the program)(macrostructure of the program)
A Way Out Does Exist!
The Agenda for EuropeThe Agenda for Europe
EU Manufacturing and 4 competitiveness driversFinancial SystemInnovationRegulatory environmentEntrepreneurship
European Best Performers in Times of Crisis
The Observatory on Europe EU-27 Competitiveness Index
The Agenda for Italy
Doing Business in Italy: a difficult match or a well of opportunities? (anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
5
(anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
Echi da Villa d’Este
P f th Vill d’E t F *Program of the Villa d’Este Forum*
FRIDAY, Sept. 6 2013 SATURDAY, Sept. 7 2013 SUNDAY, Sept. 8 2013
WORLD
The Economic Outlook
EUROPE
Challenges and Priorities for Europe
ITALY
New media and the
Fast-Growing Economies and New Political and Economic Balances
Europe, the Way Forward Balancing Austerity with
GrowthTh St t f th E
New media and the politics of the future
Education, innovation, research, andEconomic Balances
Today the World of Tomorrow - Scientific Developments
The State of the Eurozone European Best Performers
in Times of Crisis
R t i E ’
research, and technology for Italy’s future
EconomyDevelopments
Technology and Innovation as Drivers for Growth
Restoring Europe’s competitiveness and growth Manufacturing for Re-
Constitutional reforms
Justice and Security
Speech by Italian PrimeGrowth
Geopolitical Risks of the Syrian Crisis
Manufacturing for Relaunching Growth
Labor as a Driver for CompetitivenessTh E Ch ll
Speech by Italian Prime Minister
6* The complete program is enclosed in the annexes
The Energy Challenge
Echi da Villa d’Este
I dIndexIntelligence on the World, Europe and Italy(macrostructure of the program)(macrostructure of the program)
A Way Out Does Exist!
The Agenda for EuropeThe Agenda for Europe
EU Manufacturing and 4 competitiveness driversFinancial SystemInnovationRegulatory environmentEntrepreneurship
European Best Performers in Times of Crisis
The Observatory on Europe EU-27 Competitiveness Index
The Agenda for Italy
Doing Business in Italy: a difficult match or a well of opportunities? (anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
7
(anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
Echi da Villa d’Este
W i th id t f d li t d f il hi t i lWe are in the midst of an delicate and fragile historical nexus
The unemployed in Europe are currently 25 million
Between 2008 and 2012, European manufacturing lost 3.4 million jobsj
Only 37% of European citizens are willing to be self-employedemployed
We need:We need: an immediate and broad-ranging cultural change to recognise entrepreneurs as a driving force in to recognise entrepreneurs as a driving force in
the economy of the 21st century
8
Echi da Villa d’Este
B t h t th bi th f t hi ?But how we can guarantee the birth of a new entrepreneurship?
We see t least two lines of action:
The educational challenge: the education from very young age can develop within young people attitudes and y g g p y g p pentrepreneurial aspirations
The eco-system challenge: it is necessary recreate an The eco system challenge: it is necessary recreate an environment in which new companies can be born, grow and develop
We need reforms that are unequivocally pro-business in e eed e o s t at a e u equ oca y p o bus esswhich entrepreneurship is the major asset to be unleashed and capitalized upon
9
Echi da Villa d’Este
I dIndexIntelligence on the World, Europe and Italy(macrostructure of the program)(macrostructure of the program)
A Way Out Does Exist!
The Agenda for EuropeThe Agenda for Europe
EU Manufacturing and 4 competitiveness driversFinancial SystemInnovationRegulatory environmentEntrepreneurship
European Best Performers in Times of Crisis
The Observatory on Europe EU-27 Competitiveness Index
The Agenda for Italy
Doing Business in Italy: a difficult match or a well of opportunities? (anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
10
(anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
Echi da Villa d’Este
Th A d f EThe Agenda for Europe
Financial System
Manufacturing competitiveness InnovationRegulatory
Environment
11
Entrepreneurship
Echi da Villa d’Este
Th i i h l ff t d th EU’ f t i tThe crisis has severely affected the EU’s manufacturing sector…Industrial production index (excluding construction)
2005=100
110
1152005=100
∆2008-2012 %
95
100
105 -2.8%
-12.8%
85
90
95
-21.0%
70
75
80
70
Q1-
2000
Q2-
2000
Q3-
2000
Q4-
2000
Q1-
2001
Q2-
2001
Q3-
2001
Q4-
2001
Q1-
2002
Q2-
2002
Q3-
2002
Q4-
2002
Q1-
2003
Q2-
2003
Q3-
2003
Q4-
2003
Q1-
2004
Q2-
2004
Q3-
2004
Q4-
2004
Q1-
2005
Q2-
2005
Q3-
2005
Q4-
2005
Q1-
2006
Q2-
2006
Q3-
2006
Q4-
2006
Q1-
2007
Q2-
2007
Q3-
2007
Q4-
2007
Q1-
2008
Q2-
2008
Q3-
2008
Q4-
2008
Q1-
2009
Q2-
2009
Q3-
2009
Q4-
2009
Q1-
2010
Q2-
2010
Q3-
2010
Q4-
2010
Q1-
2011
Q2-
2011
Q3-
2011
Q4-
2011
Q1-
2012
Q2-
2012
Q3-
2012
Q4-
2012
Japan US EU27
12
Japan US EU27
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on OECD data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
l i i t th i t... also in comparison to other economic sectors …Value added per sector in EU-27
2008=1002008=100
101
103
Public sector (+0.7%)
97
99
93
95 Services* (-4.5%)
Construction (-7.1%)
87
89
91
Agriculture (-11.6%)
M f t i ( 12 1%)
85
87
2008 2009 2010 2011
Manufacturing (-12.1%)
13(*) excluding financial and insurance services
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
lti i t i t l t… resulting in a strong impact on employmentEmployment in manufacturing, EU-27
% change 2008-12% change 2008-12
EU-15* New Member States
-15,1%
-17,3%
-20,7%
-23,5%
-28,1%
Portugal
Ireland
Denmark
Spain
Greece
-15,1%
-16,7%
-22,8%
-23,4%
Cyprus
Slovenia
Lithuania
Latvia
9 5%
-10,2%
-10,4%
-11,6%
-11,6%
,
EU 15
Italy
France
Sweden
Finland
-11,2%
-12,8%
-13,9%
-14,0%
Slovakia
New MS
Romania
Estonia
-2,7%
-6,4%
-9,5%
-9,5%
-9,5%
Austria
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Belgium
EU-15
-4,7%
-7,0%
-9,6%
-10,3%
Hungary
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Poland
Over 3.6 million jobs lost between 2008 and 2012
(*) excluding Luxembourg
-1,2% Germany -4,7% Malta
14
j
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Th i ht f EU f t i i d li iThe weight of EU manufacturing is declining …
Added Value of the Manufacturing sector in the EU-27,
20.0%
g ,Share of total VA (%)
18.5%
0 0%
-2.9p p
+4.4 p.p.
15.6%p.p.
EUTarget
2000 2011 2020
15Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
d i i ifi tl MS… and varies significantly among MSs
Added Value of the Manufacturing sector, Sh f t t l VA (%) 2011Share of total VA (%), 2011
29.6
4.0 9 6
24 22.9
22.6
21.7
21.1
20.6
20.3
19.5
18.7
17.4
17.3
17.2
16.8
16.3
15.6
.1 .0 8 5 2 9114 14
.13
.13
.513
.212
.912
.510
.910
.810
.29.
26.
96.
16 6
Chi
nach
Rep
ublic
Hun
gary
Ger
man
yIr
elan
dSl
ovak
iaLi
thua
nia
Slov
enia
Japa
nAu
stria
Pola
ndEs
toni
aFi
nlan
dSw
eden
Ital
yEU
-27
Latv
iaPo
rtug
alBe
lgiu
mSp
ain
US
ethe
rland
sM
alta
d Ki
ngdo
mD
enm
ark
Fran
ceG
reec
eux
embo
urg
Cypr
us
16
Czec N
Uni
ted
Lu
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat and World Bank data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Wh t d th 20% t t i l ?What does the 20% target imply?
Added Value of the ManufacturingAdded Value of the Manufacturing sector in the EU-27,
Billions of euro and share of total VA (%) The current manufacturing VA in
Ge man + Ital2,550
CAGR4.2
Additional 792 billions of euro =
Germany + Italy
1,7584.2
20%
billions of euro needed by 2020
=
14.5 millions
15.6% additional jobs at the current
productivity level
2011 2020
Elaborations on IMF GDP estimates
17
Elaborations on IMF GDP estimates
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, estimates on Eurostat and IMF data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
O f th i k i th i f t i d ti itOne of the main weakness is the gap in manufacturing productivityLabour Productivity in manufacturing, 2010
Gross value added/employee (USD) selected countries
32,4
49
140 000
160,000
Gross value added/employee (USD), selected countries
13
82,0
45
5
100,000
120,000
140,000
D
58,0
2
40,000
60,000
80,000US
D
0
20,000
,
nd
US an um ria ds nd ny ce nd 5* rk UK
ain
aly ce nia
p.
nia
Irel
an
U
Japa
Bel
giu
Aus
tr
Net
herlan
d
Finl
an
Ger
man
Fran
c
Pola
n
EU B
ig 5
Den
ma U
Spa
Ita
Gre
e
Slov
en
Slov
ak R
ep
Esto
n
18
(*) France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on OECD data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Fi i l S tFinancial System
Financial System
Manufacturing competitiveness InnovationRegulatory
Environment
19
Entrepreneurship
Echi da Villa d’Este
EU i hi hl d d t f th b ki tEU is highly dependent from the banking sector
Structure of the financial sector in the US and in EU MSs: i ht i t t l t 2011weight in total assets, 2011
80%90%
100%
40%50%60%70%80%
0%10%20%30%40%
US
embo
urg
herla
nds
Irel
and
Swed
enKi
ngdo
mFr
ance
Belg
ium
Ger
man
yPo
land
Den
mar
kFi
nlan
dSl
ovak
iaAu
stria
Hun
gary
Mal
taIt
aly
Slov
enia
Port
ugal
Spai
nRep
ublic
Esto
nia
Bulg
aria
ithua
nia
Cypr
usRom
ania
Gre
ece
Latv
ia
Luxe
Net
h
Uni
ted
K G D S H S P
Czec
h R B Li R
20
Insurance Corp. and Pension Funds Investment Funds Credit Institutions
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on ECB data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
I tiInnovation
Financial System
Manufacturing competitiveness InnovationRegulatory
Environment
21
Entrepreneurship
Echi da Villa d’Este
E ’ i ti d fi it h f t (1/2)
Gross Domestic Expenditures on R&D as a percentage of GDP (%)
Europe’s innovation deficit has many facets (1/2)
percentage of GDP (%)
4.3% 4.4%
5.0%
Israel4.0%
3.3% 3.8%
4.0%
Israel
Finland
South KoreaEU-15 best
3.0% 3.2%
2.3%
2.7%2.8%
2.0%2 0%
3.0% JapanUS
EU 27
best
1.9%
0.9%
1.8%
1.0%
2.0% EU-27China
0.6%0.6%
0.0%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
GreeceEU-15 worst
22
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
201
201
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
E ’ i ti d fi it h f t (2/2)Europe’s innovation deficit has many facets (2/2)
Indicator (2011 or latest available year) EU-27 US JP EU-15 EU-15 ( y )best worst
Share of population aged 25-34 with tertiary education (%) 33.6 41.1 55.7 49.9
(IE)19.8(IT)
Tertiary graduates in science and technology (per 1.000 of population aged 20-29 years) 12.5 10.7 13.8 24.2
(FI)9.0(NL)
R h % f t t l l d (%) 0 7 1 1 1 3 1.7 0.5Researchers as a % of total employed (%) 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.7(FI)
0.5(IT)
Patents registered (per million inhabitant) 93 133 277 293(SE)
8(GR)( ) ( )
Licence and patent revenues from abroad (% GDP) 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.18
(SE)0.01(PT)
123.2 8.7Public-private joint publications (per million pop.) 36.1 69.8 56.1 123.2(DK)
8.7(PT)
23Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
EU T ti d ti t d t d litEU Tertiary education tends to produce average qualityrather than excellence …
Top university institutions of the 2012-2013 Times “Higher Education Ranking”
80%
47%47%
27%20%
28%
41%
25%32%
20%
Top 10 Top 100 Top 400
US EU-27 other
Top 10
24
US EU 27 other
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Times Higher Education Rankings 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
d th i t t l b hi d i t f h… and the private sector lags behind in terms of researchers …
Researchers per sectorp%, total researchers=100, 2011
31% 27% 20%
54%37%
69% 73% 80%
77%
69% 73%
46%63%
23%
China Japan US EU Austria Portugal
Private sector Public sector EU-15 best
EU-15 worst
25
best worst
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on OECD data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
d R&D dit… and R&D expenditures
R&D expenditure by sector of performance, % GDP 2000 and 2011GDP, 2000 and 2011
0.430 05
0.07
3 50
4.00
4.50
(*) In the Chinese case, no data is
0.31 0.390.44
0.43
0 260 02
0.10 0.110.14
0.05
0.032.50
3.00
3.50
case, no data is available for Higher education and no-profit sector’s investment, the green rectangles1 20 1 26
2.01 2.02 2.23 2.44
1.351.7
2.99
0.39 0.48
0 14
0.14
0.260.010.02
1.00
1.50
2.00
green rectangles represent “other sources of R&D” as registered by the China Bureau of
0.25 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.22 0.32 0.31 0.51
1.20 1.26
0.57
0.14
0.00
0.50
2000 2011 2000 2011 2000 2011 2000 2011 2000 2011statistics
EU-27 US Japan China* South Korea
Government institutions Private sectorHigher Education Private No-profit institutions
26
Higher Education Private No profit institutions
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on OECD and China Bureau of Statistics data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
B i i ti fi d littl t f ti l th itiBusiness innovation finds little support from national authorities…
Direct government funding of business R&D and tax
0,400,45
ec go e e u d g o us ess & a d aincentives for R&D, % GDP, 2010
0.260.05
0.12
0 200,250,300,35
(*) Weighted average calculated for European available
0.14
0.290.20
0 04 0 05 0.09 0 06 0.090 03
0.15 0.17 0.09 0.090 03
0.07 0 04
0.17 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.070.12
0.030.02
0.05 0.010,050,100,150,20 p
countries
0.04 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.030.07 0.040,00
Fran
ce US
Aust
ria
Port
ugal
Irel
and
Belg
ium
Den
mar
k
UK
herla
nds
Swed
en
Spai
n
U A
vg.*
Ger
man
y
Japa
n
Finl
and
Ital
y
A P B D
Net
h S EU G
Direct funding of Business R&D Indirect support through R&D tax incentives
27Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat and OECD data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
d h l t f th t it l k t... and has low support from the venture capital market
Venture capital (Euros of Venture Capital for every 100,000 Euros of GDP), 2009
88.1
80.2
8
70.3
68.6
68.5
55.4
0.8
9.1
50 49
33.6
31.3
30.1
30.1
18.2
16.3
14.6
14.3
8.0
4.2
4.1
3.8
1.1
0.3
0
US
Swed
en
Irel
and
Bel
gium
Finl
and
Den
mar
k
Fran
ce UK
ther
land
s
Aus
tria
Ger
man
y
EU B
ig 5
Port
ugal
Spai
n
Rep
ublic
Esto
nia
Gre
ece
Ital
y
Slov
enia
embo
urg
Hun
gary
Pola
nd
28
D
Net G
Cze
ch
Luxe
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat and OECD data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
R l t E i tRegulatory Environment
Financial System
Manufacturing competitiveness InnovationRegulatory
Environment
29
Entrepreneurship
Echi da Villa d’Este
Th ’ h l t i t f b i iThere’s no homogeneous regulatory environment for businesses in the EU …
Business environment (0=least attractive / 100=most
100
Business environment (0=least attractive / 100=most attractive), 2013
63
51
Denmark ranks 5th in the global WB Ease of Doing
Business Index, Greece 78th
US
mar
kdo
mnl
and
eden
elan
dm
any
toni
aap
anat
via
ania
stria
tuga
lan
dsU
-27
gium
ance
enia
prus
Spai
nub
licga
ryla
ndou
rgub
licga
ria
ania
Ital
yee
ce
Den
mni
ted
Kin
gdFi
nSw
eIr
eG
erm
Est Ja La
Lith
uAus
Port
Net
herla EU
Bel
gFr
aSl
ov Cy S
ovak
Rep
uH
ung
PoLu
xem
boze
ch R
epu
Bul
gRom
IG
re
30
Un Slo Cz
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on World Bank data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
b t it i l t f b t ti t b t d t th EU l l (1/2)… but it is plenty of best practices to be promoted at the EU level (1/2)Indicators EU Top Performer Value
Starting a business IRELANDProcedures (number) SLOVENIA 2( )
Time (days) BELGIUM 4Cost (% income per capita) SLOVENIA 0
Paid-in min. capital (% income per capita)BULGARIA, CYPRUS, FRANCE, GERMANY,
IRELAND,LATVIA, PORTUGAL, UNITED KINGDOM 0
Dealing with construction permits (rank) DENMARKDealing with construction permits (rank) DENMARKProcedures (number) SWEDEN 7
Time (days) FINLAND 66Cost (% income per capita) HUNGARY 5,7
Getting electricity GERMANYP d ( b ) GERMANY SWEDEN 3Procedures (number) GERMANY, SWEDEN 3
Time (days) GERMANY 17Cost (% income per capita) FINLAND 29,6
Registering property LITHUANIAProcedures (number) PORTUGAL, SWEDEN 1( ) ,
Time (days) PORTUGAL 1Cost (% income per capita) SLOVAK REPUBLIC 0
Getting credit UNITED KINGDOMStrength of legal rights index (0-10) LATVIA, UNITED KINGDOM 10
AUSTRIA GERMANY LITHUANIA POLAND UNITEDDepth of credit information index (0-6) AUSTRIA, GERMANY, LITHUANIA, POLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
6
Public registry coverage (% of adults) PORTUGAL 90,7
Private bureau coverage (% of adults)GERMANY, IRELAND, ITALY, SLOVENIA, SWEDEN,
UNITED KINGDOM 100
Protecting investors IRELAND
31
Protecting investors IRELANDExtent of disclosure index (0-10) BULGARIA, FRANCE, IRELAND, UNITED KINGDOM 10
Extent of director liability index (0-10) SLOVENIA 9Ease of shareholder suits index (0-10) IRELAND, POLAND 9
Strength of investor protection index (0-10) IRELAND 8,3
Echi da Villa d’Este
b t it i l t f b t ti t b t d t th EU l l (2/2)… but it is plenty of best practices to be promoted at the EU level (2/2)Indicators EU Top Performer Value
Paying taxes IRELANDPayments (number per year) SWEDEN 4
Time (hours per year) LUXEMBOURG 59Profit tax (%) SPAIN 1,2
Labor tax and contributions (%) DENMARK 3,6Other taxes (%) SPAIN 0,7Ot e ta es (%) S 0,
Total tax rate (% profit) LUXEMBOURG 21Trading across borders DENMARK
Documents to export (number) FRANCE 2Time to export (days) DENMARK, ESTONIA 5
Cost to export (US$ per container) FINLAND 540Cost to export (US$ per container) FINLAND 540Documents to import (number) FRANCE 2
Time to import (days) CYPRUS, DENMARK, ESTONIA 5Cost to import (US$ per container) FINLAND 620
Enforcing contracts LUXEMBOURGProcedures (number) IRELAND 21
Time (days) LITHUANIA 275Cost (% of claim) LUXEMBOURG 9,7
Resolving insolvency FINLANDTime (years) IRELAND 0,4Time (years) IRELAND 0,4
Cost (% of estate) BELGIUM, DENMARK, FINLAND, NETHERLANDS, SLOVENIA
4
Outcome (0as piecemeal sale and 1 as going
AUSTRIA, BELGIUM, CYPRUS, CZECH REPUBLIC, DENMARK, FINLAND, GERMANY, IRELAND, ITALY,
LATVIA NETHERLANDS POLAND PORTUGAL 1
32
concern) LATVIA, NETHERLANDS, POLAND, PORTUGAL, SLOVAK REPUBLIC, SPAIN, SWEDEN, UNITED
KINGDOM
1
Recovery rate (cents on the dollar) FINLAND 89,7
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on World Bank data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
E t hiEntrepreneurship
Financial System
Manufacturing competitiveness InnovationRegulatory
Environment
33
Entrepreneurship
Echi da Villa d’Este
Fi f ll M f t i t l lFigures of small Manufacturing are crystal clearBusiness density of small manufacturing
enterprises*
24.2
22.4
7 The gap
enterprises(N. of enterprises per 1,000 people ages 15-64), 2010
17.7
1.6
.0
5 2
The gap between the EU
and the US is particularly11 11 10
. 5
10.2
9.2
8.6
7.3
6.3
6.2
6.0
6.0
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.2
5.2
4.6
4.5
4.3 9
particularly significant
4 4 4 3.
3.0
3.0
2.5
1.4
c a a e y al s n y 7 d n d a a 5 a a e m s a k y K a g d
US*
zech
Rep
ubli c
Slov
akia
Slov
enia
Gre
ece
Ital
y
Port
uga
Cyp
rus
Swed
en
Hun
gary
EU-2
7
Pola
nd
Spai
n
Finl
and
Lith
uani
a
Bul
garia
EU B
ig 5
Esto
nia
Latv
ia
Fran
ce
Bel
gium
Net
herlan
ds
Aus
tria
Den
mar
k
Ger
man
y
UK
Rom
ania
Luxe
mbo
urg
Irel
and
* SME h d f 1 t 49 l di t i f 50 l t 249 l tl
34
C * SMEs comprehend from 1 to 49 employees, medium enterprises go from 50 employees to 249, lastly big enterprises employ 250 workers or more
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat and OECD data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Th fi i i d fi it l bi i th USThe average firm size is definitely bigger in the USAverage size of manufacturing enterprises (employees) 2010
35 2
39.1
enterprises (employees), 2010
Best EU-15
35.2
13 8
21.4
15.7 Worst EU 1513.8
12.19.4
11.3
4.0
8.0
EU-15
4.0
US EU-5 EU-27 Ireland Italy
35
SME Total
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
L EU SME b d h “ i ” h h ld iLess EU SMEs manage to go beyond the “micro” threshold in comparison to the US
Composition of small manufacturing enterprises by number of employees, 2010
14.9% 22.7%
85.1% 77.3%%
1-9 empl (micro-enterprises) 10-49 empl 1-9 empl (micro-enterprises) 10-49 empl
US
1 9 empl. (micro enterprises) 10 49 empl. 1 9 empl. (micro enterprises) 10 49 empl.
EU-27
36Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat and OECD data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
EU fi b d d b d i i i dWorst EU-27
EU firms are more burdened by administrative proceduresCosts for starting a business (% of per capita GNI), 2012
5.5
20.54.8
Best EU-27
1.4
0.0
Slovenia GreeceUS EU Big 5 EU-27
Time for starting a business (days), 2012 Worst EU-27
14 1332
EU-27
6
4
Best EU-27
37US EU Big 5 EU-27
4
Belgium Poland
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on World Bank data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
P i l i ( i b i )Potentials savings (time to start up a business)
Nr. of European SMEs born in 2010
Average time to start up a b i (EU ) 2010:
2.5 millionsbusiness (EU average):
13 days X
Total days spent in complying with start up procedures (MSs weighted
average): 36 7 millionsaverage): 36.7 millions
If every MS aligns to Belgium’sTh lif f
If every MS aligns to Belgium s standard (4 days)
26.6 millions days saved
The average life of 913 people!=
X
Average value added of European SMEs per day:
Potential gain in added value:
17 billi f
X
=
38
European SMEs per day: 743 euros 17 billions of euro
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Eurostat data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
P i l i ( b i )Potentials savings (costs to start up a business)
Nr. of European SMEs born in 2010:
2.5 millions
Average cost to start up a business (EU average):
1.479 euros
Total cost for start up procedures (MSs
X
Total cost for start up procedures (MSs weighted average): 5 billions of euro
If every MS aligns to Slovenia’s standard (no costs)( )
5 billions of euro saved
39Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, estimates on Eurostat data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
I i h US h EU l b k bIn comparison to the US, the EU labour market appears to be more rigid
Rigidity of employment index 2012
59
55 53
49 49 48
Rigidity of employment index, 2012
4
45
41
39 38 37 36 35 35
33 313
28 27 26
23
16 3 21 1 2 10 10
7 7
Fran
ce
uxem
bour
g
Port
ugal
Slov
enia
Finl
and
Net
herlan
ds
Rom
ania
Swed
en
Gre
ece
Ger
man
y
Ital
y
Esto
nia
Latv
ia
EU B
ig 5
Spai
n
Cyp
rus
Mal
ta
Aus
tria
Hun
gary
Pola
nd
Bul
garia
ak R
epub
lic
Irel
and
Bel
gium U
K
Den
mar
k
US
40
Lu N
Slov
a
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on World Bank data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Ulti t l E t di d b f fUltimately, European entrepreneurs are discouraged by fear of failure
Fear of failureFear of failure (% of total respondents), 2012
61
58
44 43 43 42 42 42 41 41
39 8 7 73 3 37 37 36 36 36 35 34 34 33 32
30
27
eece
Ital
y
Big
5
ance
olan
d
man
y
tuga
l
Spai
n
gium
man
ia
mar
k
vaki
a
nlan
d
atvi
a
ustr
ia
uani
a
UK
elan
d
toni
a
gary
eden US
ands
veni
a
41
Gr
EU B Fra
Po
Ger
m
Port S
Bel
g
Rom
Den
m
Slov Fin La Au
Lith
u
Ire
Est
Hun Sw
e
Net
herla
Slov
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013, re-elaboration on Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
I dIndexIntelligence on the World, Europe and Italy(macrostructure of the program)(macrostructure of the program)
A Way Out Does Exist!
The Agenda for EuropeThe Agenda for Europe
EU Manufacturing and 4 competitiveness driversFinancial SystemInnovationRegulatory environmentEntrepreneurship
European Best Performers in Times of Crisis
The Observatory on Europe EU-27 Competitiveness Index
The Agenda for Italy
Doing Business in Italy: a difficult match or a well of opportunities? (anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
42
(anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
Echi da Villa d’Este
L t th d ili f EU C t iLong term growth and resilience of EU Countries
GDP (2012): $13.518,000 mln.CAGR 2002-2012: 1 64%
ResilienceCAGR 2002 2012: 1.64%CAGR 2008-2012: 0.79%
DE
PL3.4%
GDP, CAGR 2008-2012
AT
BE
CZEE
FR
DE
SKSE
UK0 6%
1.4%
CZ
DK FIHU
IE
IT
NLPT
SIES-2.6%
-0.6%
GR
-4.6%
-6.6%-0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5%
GDP, CAGR 2002-2012
43Source: The European House – Ambrosetti re-elaboration on OECD data, 2013
The long term
,
Echi da Villa d’Este
E l t d GDP th l t dEmployment and GDP growth are related
GDP INDEX
PL
SK
10
GDP INDEX
AT
BECZ
DK
EE
FI
FRDE
IE
SE
UK6
8
DK FIHU
IE
IT
NL
PTSI
ES
2
4
GR0
2
0 2 4 6 8 10
*The GDP and Employment Indexes are a weighted average of the variation in GDP and employment rates during the 2002-2012 and 2008-2012 periods; assigned weights are respectively 25% and 75%. The scores of
EMPLOYMENT INDEX
44Source: The European House – Ambrosetti re-elaboration on Eurostat and OECD data, 2013
during the 2002 2012 and 2008 2012 periods; assigned weights are respectively 25% and 75%. The scores of the indexes range from 0 to 10
Echi da Villa d’Este
EU B t P f A iEU Best Performers - An overview
Germany Austria Poland Slovakia Sweden
Employment rate (2012) 4 5 14 15 2Labour productivity (per person employed, EU-27=100, 2011) 11 3 19 15 5Unemployment rate (2012) 3 1 11 17 9Youth participation (2011) 4 3 14 17 6Labour cost (2012) 12 11 5 7 6
LABOUR MARKET
Labour cost (2012) 12 11 5 7 6
General Government Debt (% GDP, 2012) 13 11 9 5 2Old Age Dependency ratio (2012) 20 13 3 1 17
Inflation rate (%, 2012) 4 8 17 18 1
PUBLIC FINANCE
Manufacturing (% GDP, 2010) 5 7 9 4 12
Employment in manifacturing (2011) 8 11 5 6 12
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI stock/GDP, 2012) 18 14 13 8 5Export (% GDP, 2011) 12 10 14 4 13
MANUFACTURING
INTERNATIONALIZATION p ( , )
External openess (as (Export+Import)/GDP, 2012) 11 9 12 2 13
Venture Capital (% GDP, 2011) 10 8 14 20 1Patents registered (2011) 4 7 20 19 3R&D expenditure (% GDP, 2011) 4 2 19 19 5
INNOVATION
*The table offers a ranking of Germany and the top 4 economies from six different aspects
p ( , )
Total tax rate (2012) 11 16 9 12 15
Cost to Start a Business (% of GNI per capita, 2012) 13 12 18 9 4ENTREPRENEURSHIP
45Source: The European House – Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe, OECD and Eurostat data, 2013
The table offers a ranking of Germany and the top 4 economies from six different aspects
Echi da Villa d’Este
GDP d t i t th EU d EZGDP and entry into the EU and EZ
Entry into the EU or the Eurozone* (EZ) appears to produce positive effects on new member states While Austria’s performance has improved following entry into themember states. While Austria s performance has improved following entry into the Eurozone, Poland and Slovakia have significantly improved their performance in conjunction with entry into the European Union
600
700
800
300
400
500Austria
Poland
Slovakia
SwedenDP
,B
illi
on
$
0
100
200GD
Data from 2013 to 2018 are IMF projections
46* Sweden and Poland did not adopt the Euro
Data from 2013 to 2018 are IMF projections
Source: The European House – Ambrosetti re-elaboration on IMF data, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
EU B t P f K iEU Best Performers – Key common issues
The good economic performances of the best performing countries (Austria, Poland Slovakia and Sweden) have been achieved in different waysPoland, Slovakia and Sweden) have been achieved in different ways.
Austria and Sweden perform very well in terms of employment rate: from 2002 their employment rate is higher than average.
The 4 best performing economies also present a government debt-to-GDP ratio lower than 80%.
l d d l ki h hi h l l f l l k ’ Poland and Slovakia show a high level of external openness; Slovakia’s exports account for almost 90% of its GDP.
Germany is the main trade partner of Austria, Poland and Slovakia: these Ge a y s t e a t ade pa t e o ust a, o a d a d S o a a t esecountries have benefited from the stability of the German economy.
The manufacturing sector of Austria, Poland and Slovakia accounts for a high portion of GDP and employment (≈ 20%)portion of GDP and employment (≈ 20%).
Austria and Sweden have focused their efforts on labour markets and innovation.
47
Echi da Villa d’Este
I dIndexIntelligence on the World, Europe and Italy(macrostructure of the program)(macrostructure of the program)
A Way Out Does Exist!
The Agenda for EuropeThe Agenda for Europe
EU Manufacturing and 4 competitiveness driversFinancial SystemInnovationRegulatory environmentEntrepreneurship
European Best Performers in Times of Crisis
The Observatory on Europe EU-27 Competitiveness Index
The Agenda for Italy
Doing Business in Italy: a difficult match or a well of opportunities? (anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
48
(anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
Echi da Villa d’Este
2013 C t C ti L l 4 M i R i l Cl t2013 Current Competiveness Level: 4 Main Regional Clusters7.07
89
NorthernEurope7
6.8
6.64
6.47
6.43
6.18
6.17
2
p
WesternEurope
5.82
5.69
5.65
5.35
5.35
91 90 88 2
EasternEurope
Southern
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.82
4.58
4.47
4.41
4.39
4.37
4.28
4.13
0
Europe
4
3.80
3.70
3.47
3.26
embo
urg
Swed
en
Den
mar
k
Finl
and
herlan
ds
Kin
gdom
Irel
and
Bel
gium
Ger
man
y
Aus
tria
Esto
nia
Fran
ce
Slov
enia
Mal
ta
Rep
ublic
Cyp
rus
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
ithua
nia
Spai
n
Slov
akia
Pola
nd
Port
ugal
Bul
garia
Ital
y
Rom
ania
Gre
ece
49
Luxe D
Net
h
Uni
ted
K G S
Cze
ch R H L S P R
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
A l f C titi F t I ti & Ed ti
8.8
An example of Competitiveness Factor: Innovation & Education
Innovation &
7.4
7.0
6.7
6.6
6.4 .4 .3 2
Innovation & Education
15%
6 6 6. 6.2
6.0
5.9
5.0
4.8
.4 3 24. 4.3
4.2
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2
1.7
Finl
and
Swed
en
Ger
man
y
ther
land
s
Den
mar
k
Kin
gdom
xem
bour
g
Esto
nia
Irel
and
Fran
ce
Bel
gium
Aus
tria
Slov
enia
Cyp
rus
Spai
n
Hun
gary
Rep
ublic
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Port
ugal
Pola
nd
Slov
akia
Ital
y
Mal
ta
Gre
ece
Bul
garia
Rom
ania
50
Net
Uni
ted
Lux
Cze
ch
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
A l f C titi F t L b M k t8.5
8.0
.8
An example of Competitiveness Factor: Labour Market
L b M k t7.
7.4
7.4
7.1
6.7
6.6
Labour Market 10%
5.7
5.6
5.2
5.2
5.2
4.9
4.8
64 4
4.6
4.1
4.0
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.3 2 13 3 3. 3.
1
3.0
2.6
2.2
ther
land
s
Aus
tria
Den
mar
k
Ger
man
y
Swed
en
embo
urg
Kin
gdom
Finl
and
Bel
gium
Fran
ce
Cyp
rus
Mal
ta
Irel
and
Slov
enia
Rep
ublic
Esto
nia
Ital
y
Port
ugal
Pola
nd
Slov
akia
Rom
ania
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Spai
n
Hun
gary
Bul
garia
Gre
ece
51
Net D G
Luxe
Uni
ted
Cze
ch L
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
EU i th C titi I dEU in the Competitiveness Index
MOST COMPETITIVE COUNTRIES
LEAST
52
LEAST COMPETITIVE COUNTRIES
http://www.observatoryoneurope.eu/
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
C l ti b t GDP C it d C titi L l
SE7.5
Correlation between GDP per Capita and Competitiveness Level
Correlation: 0.82R squared: 0 71
DKFI
NL
SE
UK6.5
7.0
ess
R squared: 0.71
BE
CYEE FR
IE
5.5
6.0
pe
titi
ven
07
-20
12
ATCY
CZ DEHULV
MT
SK ES
4 5
5.0
ag
e C
om
pco
re, 2
00
BG
ITLT
PL PT
SI
3 5
4.0
4.5
Ave
ra Sc
RO3.0
3.5
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Excluding outliers Luxembourg and Greece
53
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000Average per capita GDP (thousand of PPS), 2007-2012
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
C t P t C titi L l (1/2)Current vs. Past Competitiveness Level (1/2)
CountryCurrent1 Past2 Ranking
variationy variationRanking Score Ranking ScoreLuxembourg 1 7.07 3 6.71 2 positionsSweden 2 6.89 1 6.73 1 positionpDenmark 3 6.64 2 6.72 1 positionFinland 4 6.47 4 6.64 SteadyNetherlands 5 6.43 5 6.31 SteadyNetherlands 5 6.43 5 6.31 SteadyUnited Kingdom 6 6.18 7 6.06 1 positionIreland 7 6.17 6 6.29 1 positionBelgium 8 5 82 8 5 55 SteadyBelgium 8 5.82 8 5.55 SteadyGermany 9 5.69 12 5.11 3 positionsAustria 10 5.65 9 5.53 1 positionE i 11 5 35 13 5 10 2 i iEstonia 11 5.35 13 5.10 2 positionsFrance 12 5.35 10 5.17 2 positionsSlovenia 13 4.91 17 4.41 4 positions
54(1) Latest available data; (2) Five years earlier
Malta 14 4.90 14 4.78 Steady
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
C t P t C titi L l (2/2)Current vs. Past Competitiveness Level (2/2)
CountryCurrent1 Past2 Ranking
i tiCountry variationRanking Score Ranking Score
Czech Republic 15 4.88 15 4.68 SteadyCyprus 16 4.82 11 5.13 5 positionsCyprus 16 4.82 11 5.13 5 positionsHungary 17 4.58 23 4.02 6 positionsLatvia 18 4.47 18 4.33 SteadyLithuania 19 4 41 20 4 29 1 positionLithuania 19 4.41 20 4.29 1 positionSpain 20 4.39 16 4.51 4 positionsSlovakia 21 4.37 19 4.30 2 positionsPoland 22 4.28 22 4.02 SteadyPortugal 23 4.13 21 4.12 2 positionsBulgaria 24 3.80 24 3.96 Steadyg yItaly 25 3.70 25 3.74 SteadyRomania 26 3.47 26 3.46 SteadyGreece 27 3 26 27 3 32 Steady
55
Greece 27 3.26 27 3.32 Steady(1) Latest available data; (2) Five years earlier
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
B t h t b t It l ?But what about Italy?
External O
The Competitiveness Index attributes a very low score to Italy (25th position after
Openness
Innovation and EducationNetworks
to Italy (25th position after Romania and Greece)
The gap between Italy and
2,2 3,1
4,55,1
3,6 Macroeconomic StabilityEnvironment
the EU is particularly relevant in three key areas:
B i E i t
3,2
4,14,5
3,4 Business EnvironmentPublic Sector
□ Business Environment
□ Public Sector
5,1Labour Market
People & W llb i
Finance
□ External Openness Wellbeing
Italy EU-27 Sweden(B f )
56Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
(Best performer)
Echi da Villa d’Este
Th i k f th It li
9.4
8.3
7.9
7.6
7.3 9
The main weaknesses of the Italian economyBusiness Environment Index
Our Competitiveness Index places Italy among the worst 7
6.9
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.3
3.2
places Italy among the worst performers as for:
□ Business Environment
nmar
k
elan
d
gari
a
gdom
ypru
s
Latv
ia
bour
g
publ
ic
rlan
ds
ovak
ia
uani
a
man
ia
ustr
ia
ngar
y
lgiu
m
nlan
d
Spai
n
wed
en
veni
a
man
y
olan
d
rtug
al
ston
ia
ranc
e
reec
e
Ital
y
□ External Openness
□ Public Sector
Den Ir
e
Bul
Uni
ted
King C
y L
Luxe
mb
Cze
ch R
ep
Net
her
Slo
Lith Ro m A
u
Hun Bel
Fin S
Sw Slo
Ger Po
Por
Es Fr G
8.7
8.4
8.3
8.1 7 5
8.4 External Openness Index Public Sector Index
8
7.
7.5
7.3
7.2
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.3
3.4
6.1
5.8
5.7
4.7
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.7 3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.0 3.0 .9 2.9 .8 3
2.7
urg nd en ark
nd nds
ria
om ny nia
um rus ce nia
lta
ain
nia
gal
lic nd kia
via
ary
ece
aly
ria
3 3 2. 2 2.
2.4
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.8
urg lta
nd um nia
ary
nds
en rus
nia
via
nia
ark
blic nd gal
ny kia
ria
nd om ria
nce
ain
aly
ece
nia
57
Luxe
mbo
u
Finl
a
Swed
Den
ma
Irel
an
Net
herl
an
Aus
t
Uni
ted
King
d o
Ger
ma
Esto
n
Belg
iu
Cyp
r
Fran
Lith
uan
Mal
Spa
Slov
en
Port
ug
Cze
ch R
epub
Pola
Slov
a k
Latv
Hun
ga
Gre
e Ita
Bulg
ar
Luxe
mbo
u
Mal
Irel
an
Belg
iu
Esto
n
Hun
ga
Net
herl
an
Swed
Cyp
r
Slov
en
Latv
Lith
uan
Den
ma
Cze
ch R
epub
Finl
a
Port
u g
Ger
ma
Slov
ak
Aus
t
Pola
Uni
ted
King
do
Bulg
ar
Fran Sp
a
Ita
Gre
e
Rom
an
Source: The European House - Ambrosetti, Observatory on Europe 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
I dIndexIntelligence on the World, Europe and Italy(macrostructure of the program)(macrostructure of the program)
A Way Out Does Exist!
The Agenda for EuropeThe Agenda for Europe
EU Manufacturing and 4 competitiveness driversFinancial SystemInnovationRegulatory environmentEntrepreneurship
European Best Performers in Times of Crisis
The Observatory on Europe EU-27 Competitiveness Index
The Agenda for Italy
Doing Business in Italy: a difficult match or a well of t iti ?
58
opportunities? (anticipation of De Molli’s speech at the Tech Crunch event)
Echi da Villa d’Este
Il PIL d ll’It li h l 2013 è d t i l l i i tIl PIL dell’Italia anche nel 2013 è dato in calo; la ripresa, prevista per il 2014, sarà ad un ritmo inferiore alla media europea
Variazioni sul Prodotto Interno Lordo in Europa(periodo 2007-2014e, 2007=100)
GERMANIA
FRANCIA
UEUE
ITALIA
SPAGNA
L’OCSE a settembre ha stimato una contrazionedel PIL italiano dell’1,8%
stimedel PIL italiano dell 1,8% nel 2013. L’Italia è l’unico tra i Paesi del G7 a essere negativo per l’anno in corso
59Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Eurostat, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
A i 2013 i It li il t di di i h t tA maggio 2013 in Italia il tasso di disoccupazione ha toccato un nuovo record: 12,2%, il valore più elevato dal 1977
Tasso di disoccupazione tra i 15 e 64 anni in Italia(valori percentuali, 2004/2013)
Variazione annuale dell’occupazione in Italia per genere (valori percentuali, 2001/2013-T1)
4 0%
8,1% 7,8% 7,9%8,5% 8,5%
10,8%
12,2%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
,6,9%
6,2%6,8%
,
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
,
uominidonne
Secondo Confindustria a fine 2013 i posti di lavoro persi in Italia dall'inizio della crisi, sei anni fa, saranno pari a circa 1,8 milioni di unità
60Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Eurostat e Istat, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
L’ t d ll di i h i i i i i d llL’aumento della disoccupazione ha ripercussioni sui consumi delle famiglie
Andamento delle principali voci di spesa per le famiglie italiane 2007-2012 (valori percentuali, 2007=100)
Spesa al 2012 e variazione percentuale rispetto al 2007
COMBUSTIBILI ED ENERGIA120
134,9 euro/mese, +16,3%
ISTRUZIONE29,1 euro/mese, +15,0%
105
110
115
ALIMENTARI E BEVANDE468,3 euro/mese, +0,4%
TEMPO LIBERO E CULTURA95
100
105
TEMPO LIBERO E CULTURA99.7 euro/mese, -8,5%
ABBIGLIAMENTO E CALZATURE
SANITA’88,2 euro/mese, -11,7%
80
85
90
ABBIGLIAMENTO E CALZATURE119,9 euro/mese, -23,3%
75
80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
61Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Istat, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Il d bit bbli PIL h i i t li lli l ti i iIl debito pubblico su PIL ha ormai raggiunto livelli elevatissimi
Debito pubblico /PIL, 2002-2012
126,98%
110%
125%
90%
80%
95%Francia
Germania
Italia80%
50%
65%
Italia
Regno Unito
Spagna
35%2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
In Italia nel primo trimestre del 2013, il rapporto Debito/PIL ha raggiunto quota 130,3%
62Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati IMF e Eurostat, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
L t tt diti i i lLa stretta creditizia non si placa
Dal 2008 a oggi le tensioni creditizie si sono riflesse in una generale persistenza disituazioni di razionamento del creditosituazioni di razionamento del credito
Nella manifattura le piccole imprese soffrono più delle medie e grandiimprese
Percentuale delle imprese che non hanno ottenuto il credito richiesto – Anni 2008 – 2012
10
Manifattura: 5,7%
8
6
Servizi: 4%4
22
2008 2010 2011 2012
63Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House-Ambrosetti su dati Istat, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Il it l di i hi i è i ifi tiIl capitale di rischio ancora oggi non è significativo
Investimenti in Venture Capital in % del PIL, 2011
€ 70 mln.
64Fonte: Rielaborazioni The European House – Ambrosetti su dati Commissione Europea 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
P l i l di fi i ti t l’ t lPer le imprese la carenza di finanziamenti rappresenta l’ostacolo chiave all’innovazione
O t li ll’ tti ità i ti l i d it li *Ostacoli all’attività innovativa per le aziende italiane*
46,2%carenza di risorse finanziarie
19,6%
23,9%
carenza di personale qualificato
rischio economico eccessivo “Le restrizioni finanziarie, ivi inclusa la mancanza di fonti di finanziamento
17,2%
19,0%
carenza di domanda per prodotti innovativi
eccessiva regolamentazioneadeguate, continuano a figurare tra gli ostacoli
all’innovazione più frequentemente citati dalle
15,1%
15,8%
carenza di informazione sui mercati
rigidità organizzative
innovativi frequentemente citati dalle imprese”
Consiglio Europeo di Lisbona, 2000
13,9%
,
0 20 40 60
carenza di informazione sulle tecnologie
2000
65
(*) Survey sull’innovazione nelle imprese svolta nel 2011 su un campione di 3.019 aziende in Italia
Fonte: Rielaborazioni The European House – Ambrosetti su dati Unicredit e Banca d’Italia, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Gli i ti ti i R&S l t P b iGli investimenti in R&S nel nostro Paese sono bassi …
Investimenti in R&S totali3 8 (% PIL, 2011) Investimenti
(Miliardi € PPP*)
Usa 302,6
3,8
3,4 3,4
3,12,9 2,8 2 8 Cina 115,7
Giappone 103,6Germania 70,5Francia 39 5
, 2,8
2,32,1 2,0 2,0 2,0
1,8 1 7 1 70 Francia 39,5UK 30,4Italia 19,2Spagna 15,2
, 1,7 1,701,50
1,3 1,3
0 60Paesi Bassi 11,2Svezia 10,1Austria 7,5B l i 6 7
0,60
Belgio 6,7Finlandia 5,9Danimarca 5,4Portogallo 3 1
66
Portogallo 3,1Irlanda 2,5
Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House – Ambrosetti su dati Eurostat, 2013
(*) Parità di potere d’acquisto
Echi da Villa d’Este
i ll t bbli h i ll i t… sia nella componente pubblica che in quella privata
Investimenti in R&S(% sul PIL 2011)4 (% sul PIL, 2011)
0,6
0,2
0,2 0,2
0 2
3
4
2,5
0,9 0,9
0,8 0,7 0,70 6
0,4
0,2
0,3 0,30,4
0,1
0,1 0,21
2
1,8 1,81,2 1,1 1,1 0,8
1,20,60 0,6
0,60,7 0,5
0
1
Settore privato Settore pubblico Altro
(*) Include settore no profit e università
*
67Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House – Ambrosetti su dati Eurostat, 2013
(*) Include settore no profit e università
Echi da Villa d’Este
L l d li i ti i fi li t l i èLa leva degli incentivi fiscali per supportare la ricerca è poco utilizzata
Supporto pubblico alle attività di R&S delle aziendeSupporto pubblico alle attività di R&S delle aziende (% sul PIL, Paesi selezionati *)
0,4
0,5
0,05
0,12 0,260,3
,
0,290,20
0,15 0,14 0,12 0 09 0 08 0 08
0,03 0,08 0,07 0,11 0,14
0,01
0,170,12
0,05
0,1
0,2
, 0,09 0,08 0,08 0,07 0,06 0,05 0,04 0,04 0,03 0,03
0,05
0,0
Finanziamenti diretti alla R&S Incentivi fiscali alla R&S
68
(*) Germania Finlandia e Svezia non presentano un sistema di incentivi fiscali aggiuntivi ai contributi pubblici erogati per via diretta
Fonte: Rielaborazioni TEH-A su dati OECD 2012
Echi da Villa d’Este
I id tti i ti ti i R&S di d h d ll t ttI ridotti investimenti in R&S dipendono anche dalla struttura produttiva del nostro Paese
NUMERO IMPRESE
ITA UE 27
Micro 3.610.090 94,6% 92,2%
Pi l 184 345 4 8% 6 5%Piccole 184.345 4,8% 6,5%
Medie 19.370 0,5% 1,1%
Grandi 3.253 0,1% 0,2%
Altre attività dei servizi22%
Credito, attività immobiliari e servizi
p ofessionali
PMI: 99,9% Suddivisione del PIL tra le principali macro-attività economiche, 2011
22%
Agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca
2%
professionali29%
Commercio, alberghiero, trasporti e
comunicazioni22%
Costruzioni6%
2%
69
22%Industria in senso
stretto19%
Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House – Ambrosetti su dati Commissione Europea e Istat, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Ma è davvero tutto così negativo?
70
Echi da Villa d’Este
Il d fi it / PIL i li t li lti i i
RANK 2013
Il deficit / PIL appare migliorato negli ultimi anni..
RANK 20081 Germania -0,22 Estonia -0,53 Finlandia -1,24 Lussemburgo -1 7
1 Finlandia 4,42 Lussemburgo 3,23 Cipro 0,94 Paesi Bassi 0 5 4 Lussemburgo 1,7
5 Italia -2,16 Austria -2,77 Malta -2,9
4 Paesi Bassi 0,55 Germania -0,16 Austria -0,97 Belgio -1,0
8 Paesi Bassi -2,99 Slovacchia -3,2
10 Belgio -3,411 Francia 3 5
8 Slovenia -1,99 Slovacchia -2,1
10 Italia -2,711 Estonia 2 9 11 Francia -3,5
12 Slovenia -3,913 Portogallo -4,514 Grecia -5,5
11 Estonia -2,912 Francia -3,313 Portogallo -3,614 Spagna -4,5 ,
15 Cipro -5,716 Spagna -6,017 Regno Unito -7,2
p g ,15 Malta -4,616 Regno Unito -5,117 USA -6,7
l d
71
18 USA -7,319 Irlanda -9,8
Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Commissione Europea, 2013
18 Irlanda -7,419 Grecia -9,8
Echi da Villa d’Este
il d bit bbli it h t t d t l i i.. e il debito pubblico pro-capite ha tenuto durante la crisi
Debito pubblico pro-capite (in dollari),2008 and 20132008 and 2013
2008Giappone 72.000Italia 38.800
2013Giappone 98.900Irlanda 56.500Italia 38.800
Francia 29.300Canada 28.600Germania 28.000Irlanda 23 600
Irlanda 56.500Canada 45.500USA 40.300Italia 39.900Regno Unito 37 700
CAGR
Irlanda 23.600Regno Unito 19.100USA 18.600
Regno Unito 37.700Francia 37.300Germania 34.200
CAGRGiappone 6,55%
Irlanda 19,08%
Canada 9,73%
USA 16 72%USA 16,72%
Italia 0,56%
Regno Unito 14,57%
Francia 4,95%
Germania 4 08%
72Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Economist Intelligence Unit, 2013
Germania 4,08%
(*) Per CAGR si intende in Compound Annual Growth Rate
Echi da Villa d’Este
I t i i di it lf l’It li è ll ll diIn termini di spesa pro-capite per welfare, l’Italia è alle spalle di Francia, Germania e Regno Unito
Spesa pubblica pro-capite per welfare nei principali Paesi UE, 2011 (Euro)
10.011
9.008
7 3037.303 7.055
Francia Germania Regno Unito Italia
73Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Bocconi CERGAS, marzo 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
L i h i t è t l iù lt d’ELa ricchezza privata è tra le più alte d’Europa
Ricchezza privata netta pro-capite nei Big Five europei e negli
164
143160
180.000 $
p p p g p gUSA, 2011 (migliaia di dollari)
143
122
102100
120
140
72 78
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
Francia Italia Regno Unito USA Germania SpagnaFrancia Italia Regno Unito USA Germania Spagna
74Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Credit Suisse , Global Wealth Databook 2012
Echi da Villa d’Este
L’ t i f t di f d ll’It li
Importazioni, esportazioni e saldo commerciale (miliardi di euro gennaio 2007 – gennaio 2013)
L’export si conferma un punto di forza dell’Italia
(miliardi di euro, gennaio 2007 gennaio 2013)
IMPORT
EXPORT
SALDO
3636
34
32
8
6
4SALDO
30
28
26
2
0
-2
Il 2012 ha registrato un aumento dell’export del 3 5% rispetto
24
22
20
-4
-6
8
dell export del 3,5% rispetto all’anno precedente, cui si affianca la
decisa caduta dell’import
20 -8
Esportazioni verso BRICS + MIKT, al 2010 (miliardi di Euro)
Paese Export 2010CAGR Export,
2000 2010Paese Export 2010
2000-2010Germania 134,4 +13,68%Italia 37,6 +5,16%Francia 36,2 +0,93%R U it 26 3 3 41%
75Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Istat, 2013
Regno Unito 26,3 +3,41%Spagna 15,3 +8,24%
Echi da Villa d’Este
N l 2012 l’It li è t i hi P i d l d h tNel 2012 l’Italia è tra i pochi Paesi del mondo che possono vantare un surplus commerciale manifatturiero con l’estero
750
Bilancia commerciale con l’estero dei Paesi del G-20 per i manufatti industriali non alimentari, 2012 (miliardi di dollari)
113
350
550
113
250
-50
150
-650
-450
-250
650
76Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House – Ambrosetti su dati WTO, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
Il d i It l h l l’It liIl made in Italy che salva l’Italia
Vini e spumanti Rubinetti e valvole Mobili in legno Parti di turbine a gas
235 prodotti≈
€ 63 mld.390 prodotti
≈321 prodotti a t d tu b e a gas Trattori agricoli Macchine per imbottigliare Navi da crociera Lavori in alluminio
€ 74 mld.≈€ 45 mld.
Caffè torrefatto Lampadari Mobili in legno Polimeri di etilene
Calzature Pasta
Granito
Calzature Packaging Piastrelle Borse in pelle Occhiali da sole
Pasta Cuoio Barche e yatch Conduttori elettrici Parti di macchine per impacchettare
77
Occhiali da sole Parti di macchine per impacchettare
Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House – Ambrosetti su dati Fondazione Edision, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
T l ll t i i d tti di i l tt iTra le eccellenze troviamo i prodotti di meccanica non elettronica
Classifica mondiale di esportazioni di prodotti di meccanica non elettronica, 2011
PaesePrima
posizioneSeconda
posizioneTerza
posizioneTotale
Germania 28 20 10 58
Classifica mondiale di esportazioni di prodotti di meccanica non elettronica, 2011
Germania 28 20 10 58Giappone 16 14 13 43Italia 11 10 20 41Cina 13 6 7 26Cina 13 6 7 26USA 3 4 4 11Corea 2 4 3 9Francia - 3 3 6Francia - 3 3 6Regno Unito 1 1 - 2Canada - - - 0
Nelle esportazioni di prodotti di meccanica non elettronica, l’Italia segue solo Germania e Giappone, grazie alla presenza di una
manifattura di nicchia e di altissima gamma
78Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House – Ambrosetti su dati UNCTAD/WTO, 2013
manifattura di nicchia e di altissima gamma
Echi da Villa d’Este
A h l’ t i d l i h f tt i t ’ ttiAnche l’esportazione del vino ha fatto registrare un’ottima performance annuale
4,7 5,3 55,miliardi di euro
,miliardidi euro
miliardidi euromiliardidi euro
VALORE DELLE ESPORTAZIONI DI VINO
ITALIANO NEL 2012≅ ≅VALORE DELLA
CAPITALIZZAZIONE IN BORSA DEL GRUPPO
VALORE AGGIUNTO DEL SETTORE TESSILE, ABBIGLIAMENTOITALIANO NEL 2012 BORSA DEL GRUPPO
FIAT IN APRILE 2013ABBIGLIAMENTO,
PELLETTERIA E AFFINI IN FRANCIA NEL 2011
79
Echi da Villa d’Este
L lità d ll if tt è h f tt di l t i li iLa qualità della manifattura è anche frutto di elevata specializzazione
Mappa dei distretti industriali italiani
Specializzazione dei distretti industriali italiani
Abbigliamento-ModaAutomazione - MetalmeccanicaArredo-CasaAlimentare, Agro-Industriale, ItticoAltro Specializzazione dei distretti industriali italiani
37,6%
25,7%21 8%
30%
40%
21,8%
11,9%
2,0% 1,0%
10%
20%
0%
80Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House – Ambrosetti su dati Osservatorio Nazionale Distretti Italiani, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
C l ll it liCosa accomuna le eccellenze italiane..
I fattori critici di successo sembrano essere:
prodotti che uniscono estetica, artigianalità, innovazione e funzionalità
forte attenzione alla soddisfazione del cliente
produzioni fatte su misura dalla progettazione alla realizzazione fino all’assistenza post-vendita
presenza di medie imprese attive e competitive cresciute dal basso e che restano collegate al territorio di origine rafforzando il legame
f t i ll’ t ità di di l i ti l b li forte propensione all’export e capacità di dialogare con i mercati globali, controllando reti distributive proprie o almeno partecipate
81
Echi da Villa d’Este
N t tt l’It li i t ll t dNon tutta l’Italia si comporta allo stesso modo
La Lombardia nel 2012 ha registrato:
un valore aggiunto prodotto pari a 300 miliardi di €, equivalente al 21,29% del valore aggiunto italiano (pari a 1.413 mld. di €)
2°regione europea per valore aggiunto totale (dopo l’Ile –de-France) e 1°per valore aggiunto nell’industria
una produttività oraria pari a 33 67 €/h superiore a quella italiana (30 26 €/h) una produttività oraria pari a 33,67 €/h superiore a quella italiana (30,26 €/h)
4°realtà territoriale europea nel commercio estero, con una quota pari a 0,75%a 0,75%
il 29% di patent application nazionali
il 36% degli occupati nei settori ad alto contenuto tecnologico il 36% degli occupati nei settori ad alto contenuto tecnologico
82Fonte: Rielaborazioni The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Regione Lombardia e Istat, 2013
Echi da Villa d’Este
F b i ò Al i iFar bene si può – Alcuni esempi
Brembo produce impianti frenanti per veicoli; nasce come piccola officina i i è l d di lmeccanica e oggi è leader mondiale
al 2012 Fatturato pari a € 1,4 mld. e Utile pari a € 78 mln.
6 000 dipendenti 6.000 dipendenti
opera in 3 continenti e con siti produttivi in 12 nazioni
ha istituito il Parco Scientifico Tecnologico “Kilometro Rosso” contesto ha istituito il Parco Scientifico Tecnologico Kilometro Rosso , contesto
Diasorin da più di quarant' anni crea strumenti per le analisi di sangue e urineDiasorin da più di quarant anni crea strumenti per le analisi di sangue e urine
presente in tutto il mondo attraverso 24 società, e 6 siti produttivi tra Italia, Germania, Usa, Irlanda, Regno Unito e Sud Africa
nel 2012 il Fatturato ha superato € 350 mln. e Utile pari a € 70 mln.
ha investito più di € 17 mln. in ricerca
83
Echi da Villa d’Este
L’It li è ià il P d ll “b ” iL’Italia è già il Paese della “buona” ricerca
PaeseRicercatori
( )Citazioni Citazioni/per .000
ricercatori(.000) ricercatoriPaesi Bassi 54 3.974.719 73,61Svezia 49 2.686.304 54,82Belgio 38 1.918.993 50,50Italia 103 5.151.675 50,02D iDanimarca 37 1.574.167 42,55Regno Unito 257 10.508.202 40,89Canada 149 6 019 195 40 40149 6.019.195 40,40USA 1.400 48.862.100 34,90Germania 328 10.518.133 32,07Francia 239 7.007.693 29,32Spagna 135 3.588.655 26,58Giappone
84
Giappone 656 8.084.145 12,32
Fonte: Rielaborazioni The European House - Ambrosetti su dati Scimago Ranking 2012
Echi da Villa d’Este
Il P lit i di Mil è ll T 30 di l d ll i itàIl Politecnico di Milano è nella Top 30 mondiale delle università a vocazione tecnologica
'UNIVERSITA' PUNTEGGIO
1 Massachuttes Institute of Technology US 96,302 Stanford University US 93,303 University of Cambridge UK 90 503 University of Cambridge UK 90,504 University of California, Berkeley US 90,205 ETH Zurich CH 89,506 Imperial Collee UK 88,307 Nationale University of Singapore SIN 87,208 Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne CH 86,409 University of Oxford UK 86,1010 C lif i I tit t f T h l US 85 8010 California Institute of Technology US 85,80
.. ………….. …..27 KTH, Royal Institute of Technology SWE 80,1028 Politecnico di Milano ITA 79,8028 Politecnico di Milano ITA 79,8028 Rheinisch-Westfalische Technische Hochschule Aachen DE 79,8028 University of Manchester UK 79,80
85
Se si esclude il mondo anglosassone il Politecnico raggiunge la quarta posizione in Europa
Echi da Villa d’Este
L’ ll d ll’I tit t It li di T l i
34 anni l’età media 1 000 ice cato i
L’eccellenza dell’Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia
34 anni l’età media 1.000 ricercatori
48% i i
3 premi Nobelricercatori stranieri
3 premi Nobel nel comitato scientifico
10 università e30 nazioni rappresentate 1.800
pubblicazioni i tifi h
10 università e centri di ricerca collegati in rete
86
scientifiche
Fonte: Rielaborazione The European House – Ambrosetti su dati IIT 2012
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