easec10-mitigation natural disasters · • earthquake • tsunami • meteor strike warning time...

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Paper Presented at EASEC10 BANGKOK

AUGUST 5, 2006

Mitigation of Natural Disasters

byChan Wirasinghe

Department of Civil EngineeringAnd IIIRR

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NATURAL DISASTER

A natural event that causes

great damage, suffering

andloss of life.

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NATURAL DISASTER

PROBABILITY• River flood• Flashflood/Mud-slide• Earth-slip• Cyclone• earthquake• Tsunami• Meteor strike

WARNING TIME• Cyclone• River flood• Tsunami• Earth-slip• Flashflood/Mud-slide• Earthquake• Meteor strike

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DEVASTATION• Meteor strike• Tsunami• Cyclone• River flood• Tornado• Earth slip• Flashflood/Mud

slide

MANAGEABILITY• River flood• Flashflood/mud

slide• Earthslip• Cyclone• Tornado• Tsunami• Meteor Strike

NATURAL DISASTER

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Asteroid Strike, Siberia, 1908

View from Kirensk, 2 seconds before explosion View from Vanavara trading post, at the time of the explosion

15 km from ground zero 170 km Southwest from ground zerohttp://www.psi.edu/projects/siberia/siberia.html

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DISASTER MITIGATION• CONTINUOUS PRE – PLANNING• INSTALLATION OF PLANS,

“SAFEGUARDS”, DETECTION & WARNING SYSTEMS

• REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT• IMMEDIATE POST-DISASTER

RESCUE • MEDIUM TERM RECOVERY• LONG TERM RECOVERY• UPDATING OF “PRE-PLANNING”

ACTIVITY

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even

t

dete

ctio

n

com

mun

icat

ion

war

ning

issu

ed

mit

igat

ion

orga

nize

d

evac

uati

on

resc

ue

cov

reer

y

Loss

( )

Activity

timeα

high

low

early

late no activity

no activityno evacuation

no rescue

no evacuation

no rescue

fast

track

sufficient

time

high

low

Loss Acvtivity Diagram−

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SRI LANKA

• SMALL• SURROUNDED BY

OCEAN• SIGNIFICANT

SEISMICITY TO EAST AND WEST

• HIGH RAINFALL• MOUNTAINOUS• CYCLONES FROM

BAY OF BENGAL• DEVELOPING

COUNTRY

⊗⊗⊗

⊗⊗

⊗⊗

⊗

Western Array Node

Eastern Array Node

⊗−−

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Simulated Inundations

Alex Braun, University of Calgary, Canada

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Tsunami Detection Arrays

A node in an array of detectors

Communications, Signal Processingand Real-time Detection System

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DE

DW

DS0

0

DW

00DE

0

000

0

00

DoNot

hing

E Coast−

W Coast−

&EW

Coast

−

[ ]DN E W SE c eD wD sD= + +

[ ]E W EE c wD K= +

[ ]W E WE c eD K= +

&[ ]E W E WE c K K= +

e

e

e

e

w

w

w

w

s

s

s

s

r

r

r

r

Decision Tree for choice of Tsunami Detection SystemNotes: e,w,s – probabilities in a given year

D – cost of lossesK – cost of system per year

1r e w s= − − −

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Compare E&W with E Only• Install E&W-coast

detection systemsif

&[ ] [ ]E W EE c E c<

E W W EK K wD K+ < +

W

W

Kw

D>

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Tsunami Questions• Probability of W-coast

tsunami• Will E&W –coast

detectors also cover the south?

• Effect of meteor strike in the ocean

• Planning wave “height”for a tsunami

• Optimal spacing and maintenance cycleof detection buoys given P (malfunction or theft)

⊗⊗

OPTχΔ

OPTχΔ

Source- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake

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NATIONAL PLAN OF ACTION FOR LONG TERM DISASTER MITIGATION

• CLARIFY ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES-- INTERNATIONAL > DISTRICT >

HOUSEHOLD LEVEL• ESTABLISH AN

ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE-- DISASTER RESEARCH,

PLANNING, EDUCATION, PREPARATION AND MANAGEMENT

• ESTABLISH A CULTURE OF SELF MOTIVATION-- THE WORST DISASTERS HAVE

THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES OF OCCURANCE AND THE LEAST WARNING

• INSTALL THE REQUIRED DETECTION, COMMUNICATION, WARNING AND EVACUATION SYSTEMS

• CHOOSE AND UPDATE THE APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGIES

• BUILD THE SYSTEMS & STRUCTURES REQUIRED TO REDUCE DAMAGE

• UNDERTAKE AN INTERNATIONAL REVIEW EVERY DECADE

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ROLES OF SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS

TRADITIONAL• STUDIES• RESEARCH• DESIGN• OPERATIONS• TEACHING• TECHNOLOGICAL

“ADVICE”• POLICY “ADVICE”

REQUIRED• TRADITIONAL• POLICY “DEVELOPMENT &

IMPLEMENTATION”

• PLANNING

• LEADERSHIP!

• LEADERSHIP!!• LEADERSHIP!!!

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PROPOSALS

“Arizona’s Meteor Crater was the first impact crateridentified on Earth. Scientists believe an asteroid80 feet (27 meters) in diameter created the 1.2 kilometerarea 20,000 to 50,000 years ago. The crater also has thedistinction of being NASA’s testing ground for Mars mission Equipment” [ www.nationalgeographic.com]

• NATIONAL DISASTER RESEARCH AND PLANNING NETWORK WITH SPECIALISED CENTERS AT EACH RESEARCH UNIVERSITY

• NATIONAL DISASTER MITIGATION CENTER WITH SISTER PROVINCIAL ORGANIZATIONS

• CLOSE INTERACTION WITHIN SAARC

• DEVELOP PLANS FOR TSUNMAI’S, FLOODS,

CYCLONES ETC.

• THINK OF, & PLAN FOR, THE “UNTHINKABLE”:

TEN YEARS OF SUSTAINED DROUGHT?TSUNAMI FROM THE WEST?LARGE METEOR STRIKE IN OCEAN SOUTH OF

SL?RADIO ACTIVE CLOUD FROM A REGIONAL

NUCLEAR WAR?

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

• A. Madanayake -Discussions, web research and presentation

• A. Braun - Discussions, development of slides 8 & 9

• J. Fernando and R. Galappatti - Discussions and motivation

• University of Calgary -Financial support

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Univ. of Moratuwa, Sri LankaUniv. of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka

Univ. of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka

Univ. of Calgary, Canada

Arizona State Univ., USA Univ. of South Florida, USA

International Institute for Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction

Univ. British Columbia, Canada

Founder and Convenor: Professor S.C.WirasingheCo-Convenor: Professor L.L. Ratnayake

Univ. of Stuttgart, Germany