earthquakes and tsunamis: the year 2010 in review
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James D. Goltz Ph.D.Earthquake and Tsunami Program ManagerCalifornia Emergency Management AgencyCalifornia Industrial Hygiene Council ConferenceSan Diego, December 7, 2010
Many sources of information on natural hazards
Mine is an emergency management and social science perspective
The Cal EMA Earthquake and Tsunami Program is part of the Preparedness Division of Cal EMA
There are 9 of us working statewide with a budget of approximately $4 million per year
Funding sources are NOAA, FEMA and State general fund
YearYear LocationLocation MagnitudeMagnitude
19521952 Kern CountyKern County 7.77.7
19711971 San FernandoSan Fernando 6.56.5
19791979 Imperial ValleyImperial Valley 6.56.5
19831983 CoalingaCoalinga 6.56.5
19871987 Whittier NarrowsWhittier Narrows 5.95.9
19891989 Loma PrietaLoma Prieta 6.96.9
19921992 Cape MendocinoCape Mendocino 7.2, 6.5, 6.67.2, 6.5, 6.6
19921992 LandersLanders 7.37.3
19941994 NorthridgeNorthridge 6.76.7
19991999 Mojave DesertMojave Desert 7.17.1
20032003 San SimeonSan Simeon 6.56.5
20102010 Baja (Mexico)Baja (Mexico) 7.27.2
M5.5 and Greater
Probability of a M6.7 earthquake in California in the next 30 years is 99%
Probability of a M7.5 earthquake in California is 46%
Highest probability of an earthquake is in southern California
Source: Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
Addresses earthquake, tsunami and volcanic hazards
Main program areas: Local government planning & exercises Hazard mitigation Public education Partial funding of seismic network Knowledge & technology transfer
Target audiences Local government (cities & counties) Public (residents and visitors)
Scientific organizations US Geological Survey Public and Private Universities (Caltech, UC
Berkeley, USC) California Geological Survey National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) Emergency Management
Federal Emergency Management Agency Other state agencies with emergency
management functions Local emergency services agencies
Support for the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) $2 million per year
Provides information on all California earthquakes
Includes ~1200 stations Magnitude, location,
time of occurrence in real-time
Also source of ShakeMap Receives info feed from
global networks
CISN DisplayCISN DisplayShakeMapShakeMapENSENSHAZUSHAZUSPAGERPAGER
In 2008,2009 and 2010 Cal EMA was a principal organizer of the Great California ShakeOut
• Drop, Cover and Hold On Drill (All Years)• Statewide Earthquake Exercise (08)• International Earthquake Conference (08)• Localized events to raise awareness (All Years)
Buildings rarely collapse in California Most people are injured in earthquakes by
things falling on them Get under something to be safe!
DO NOT get in a doorway! It does not protect you from falling items,
and in strong shaking you can not stand
DO NOT believe the “triangle of life”! You are safer under, not next to a table www.dropcoverholdon.org explains why
Plans for response to earthquakes M>7.5
the SF Bay Area Southern California Cascadia Subduction
Zone Midwest
$213 Billion in losses 1,800 estimated deaths (low because of mitigation already done,
but more needs to be accomplished) 50,000 injuries severe enough for emergency room
Approximately 255,000 households will be displaced,542,000 persons will need shelter and up to 2.5 million will require some level of assistance
1,600 fire ignitions (model does not include Santa Ana conditions) Hundreds of buildings will collapse and thousands will never be
usable again. Greatest loss of buildings and loss of life occur in older brick and non-ductile concrete moment-frame buildings (unreinforced masonry URM)
Lifelines (power, gas, water, phone, transportation) severed with 15 – 30 foot offsets across the fault
Local emergency response capability overwhelmed, mutual aid from outside the region
2/3 of hospital beds lost to structural and non-structural damage
Duty Officer for earthquake and tsunami 24/7 responsibility for response
CEPEC review of anomalous seismic activity
Earthquake early warning:An attempt to alert peoplethat ground motion froma distant earthquake isapproaching
Potential Advantages:
• Personal safety (drop, cover, hold on)• Rapid and automated mitigation
Reduce loss of life and property damage
M6.5 Off shore Northern CA, January 10 M7.0 Port au Prince Area, Haiti January
11 M8.8 Maule, Chile, February 27 M7.2 Baja California, April 4 M6.9 Qinghai, China, April 13 M7.0 South Island (Christchurch), New
Zealand, September 3 M7.7 Sumatra, Indonesia, October 25
M6.5 at 4:28 PM on Sunday, January 10
Location: 30 miles WSW of Eureka
No deaths or serious injuries
$30 million in damage
History of earthquakes in this region: Triple Junction
Reinforced masonry buildings did very well
Those that remained unreinforced did badly
Few people in public places did “drop, cover and hold on”
More running than we would like to see
M 7.0 at 4:53 PM on Tuesday January 12
15 miles WSW of Port au Prince
222,570 Killed, 300,000 injured and 1.3 million displaced
Worst natural disaster since Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004
From a seismological and engineering perspective, not much was learned
Reaffirmed that poor nations continue to suffer huge losses of life, catastrophic damage and lengthy recovery periods.
M8.8 at 3:34 AM on Saturday February 27
One of the 5 largest earthquakes ever recorded
577 killed, 12,000 injured and 800,000 displaced
Earthquake caused trans-Pacific tsunami
Modern building codes w/strict enforcement saves lives
Connection b/w earthquake and tsunami still not well understood
Beach visitors are vulnerable
“Easter Day” M7.2 on Sunday April 4
30 miles SSE of Mexicali and 35 miles SSE of Calexico, CA
2 fatalities in Mexico and damage in Baja and Imperial County
About $90 million in damage on US side
Migration of aftershocks north caused concern
Extensive surface rupture shed light on the vulnerability of life lines
Gave impetus to planning for southern California earthquake
M6.9 located 1190 miles WSW of Beijing at 7:49 AM local time
In aftermath of other earthquakes, nearly nothing in news
2,698 killed, 270 missing, over 12,000 injured
Largest earthquake in history in this region
Expect the next earthquake to be unexpected (location too!)
M7.0 located 30 m W of Christchurch at 4:36 AM on Saturday September 4
No fatalities (2 serious injuries)
Contrast with Haiti earthquake
Good buildings and preparedness paid off!
Stark contrasts b/w developed and third world in survivability in a major earthquake
Older building do poorly wherever they are located
M7.7 located 175 miles S of Padang at 9:42 PM
On Monday Oct 25 Earthquake caused
a 10 foot tsunami 113 killed and 500
Missing One of the most
seismically active regions in the world
California faces a similar risk that a near source tsunami will be generated and arrive within 10-15 minutes of an under water earthquake or landslide.
If you are at the beach and experience an earthquake lasting 20 seconds or more, take self-protective action during the shaking, then move inland and to higher ground!
World seismicity has not increased (rate of earthquakes is stable from year to year)
It will increase in those areas which have experienced large events (aftershocks & triggered earthquakes)
Must do a better job in public safety education for both earthquakes and tsunamis
Good building codes and enforcement save lives
Myth#1: Most people will panic during the shaking disregarding appropriate response training (e.g. everyone runs outside)
Myth#2: People will exhibit “shock” becoming passive and require major assistance from response agencies
Myth#3: A massive show of force and control will be needed to prevent looting and other crowd behavior
Response training won’t help because when the ground starts to shake, instincts take over and everyone will just panic!
“Fright and panic are such regular effects of strong shaking that they form an established part of all intensity scales. Persons and populations differ according to their previous experience, but only an abnormally cold-blooded person can remain calm when the structures over his head are being damaged and the ground under his feet is shaking so as to destroy the basic feelings of security. The most universal impulse is to run, even when already outdoors”
I Not felt
II Felt indoors by few – especially on upper floors, or by sensitive or nervous persons.
III Felt indoors by several – motion is usually a rapid vibration. Sometimes not recognized to be an earthquake at first.
IV Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few – Awakened few, especially light sleepers. Frightened no one, unless apprehensive from previous experience.
V Felt indoors by practically all, outdoors by many –Awakened many, or most.Frightened few--slight excitement, a few ran outdoors.
VI Felt by all – indoors and outdoors. Frightened many, excitement general.
VII Frightened all – general alarm, all ran outdoors. Some, or many, found it difficult to stand. Noticed by persons driving motor cars.
VIII Fright general – alarm approaches panic. Disturbed persons driving motor cars. IX Panic general X-XII ?
“When the earthquake struck what was the very first thing you did?”*
Took Cover Remained Ranin Safe Place in Place Outside
Whittier Narrows 34.8% 34.3%8.3%
Loma Prieta 26.6% 33.3%7.9%
Northridge 33.6% 40.1% 8.4%
* From surveys of three earthquakes conducted by the Institute for Social Science Research at UCLA
Trust the ability of people to benefit from earthquake and tsunami response training.
A big earthquake is so unexpected and so traumatic that people are incapacitated and become totally dependent on response agencies and NGOs for assistance
Assist family members, then neighbors & others
Conduct search and rescue of others nearby
Put out fires, provide first aid
Seek information from surviving media
Make decisions about evacuation
Share food and water
A strong show of force will be necessary because many people will take advantage of the lack of control to loot stores and homes.
Crime actually goes down after a natural disaster
Some looting will occur but not on a massive scale
Natural Disaster vs. Civil Unrest
Some circumstances defined as looting are not (taking vs. stealing)
Homes are rarely the target of looters
Would be naive to say that the post-earthquake social situation is a “love fest”
But people are more resourceful and resilient than these myths imply
As survivors of a large earthquake we are an asset to official response, not a hindrance
Programs like CERT, ARC first aid and CPR training and response readiness training will help us cope with the post-earthquake situation
We have had a tough year for large damaging earthquakes (Haiti one of the worst in history)
Should share our best practices with developing nations as part of our humanitarian aid efforts
Work to expand capacity to effectively respond and mitigate for catastrophic events in CA
Continue programs like the ShakeOut to prepare Californians for inevitable large earthquakes and tsunamis
Partner with other agencies and NGOs to carry out cost-effective planning and hazard mitigation
Despite the myths, the public will, on the whole respond adaptively to a natural disaster
Thank You
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