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Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 11
Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule
Walt LipkeWalt Lipkewaltlipke@cox.net waltlipke@cox.net (405) 364(405) 364--15941594
PMI PMI –– TulsaTulsaJune 7, 2006June 7, 2006
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 22
Earned Schedule TrainingEarned Schedule TrainingBasicBasic
EVM Schedule IndicatorsEVM Schedule IndicatorsIntroduction to Earned ScheduleIntroduction to Earned Schedule
Concept & MetricsConcept & MetricsIndicatorsIndicatorsPredictorsPredictorsTerminologyTerminology
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 33
Earned Schedule Training Earned Schedule Training BasicBasic
Application of Concept Application of Concept Analysis & VerificationAnalysis & VerificationPrediction ComparisonsPrediction Comparisons
Demonstration of ES CalculatorDemonstration of ES CalculatorV1 & V1 & V2V2 CalculatorsCalculators
Interpolation ErrorInterpolation Error
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 44
Earned Schedule TrainingEarned Schedule TrainingBasicBasic
Exercise Exercise –– Calculate ES, SV(t), SPI(t)Calculate ES, SV(t), SPI(t)Status UpdateStatus Update
ApplicationsApplicationsPMIPMI--CPM Earned Value Practice StandardCPM Earned Value Practice StandardES WebsiteES Website
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 55
Earned Schedule TrainingEarned Schedule TrainingAdvancedAdvanced
Network Schedule AnalysisNetwork Schedule AnalysisImpediments / ConstraintsImpediments / ConstraintsReworkRework
EV ResearchEV ResearchSchedule AdherenceSchedule Adherence
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 66
Earned Schedule TrainingEarned Schedule TrainingAdvancedAdvanced
Effective Earned ValueEffective Earned ValueDerivation / Indicators / PredictionDerivation / Indicators / Prediction
SummarySummaryQuiz & DiscussionQuiz & Discussion (if time available)(if time available)
Wrap UpWrap Up
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 77
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value ManagementSchedule IndicatorsSchedule Indicators
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 88
EVM Schedule IndicatorsEVM Schedule Indicators
Time
$
BCWSBCWP
SPI =
ACWPBCWP
CPI =
BACBCWS
ACWP
BCWP
SVCV
Time
$
BCWSBCWP
SPI =
ACWPBCWP
CPI =
BACBCWS
ACWP
BCWP
SVCV
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 99
EVM Schedule IndicatorsEVM Schedule Indicators
SV & SPI behave erratically for projects SV & SPI behave erratically for projects behind schedulebehind schedule
SPI improves and concludes at 1.00 at end of SPI improves and concludes at 1.00 at end of projectprojectSV improves and concludes at $0 variance at SV improves and concludes at $0 variance at end of projectend of project
Schedule indicators lose predictive ability Schedule indicators lose predictive ability over the last third of the projectover the last third of the project
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1010
EVM Schedule IndicatorsEVM Schedule IndicatorsWhy does this happen?Why does this happen?
SV = BCWP SV = BCWP –– BCWSBCWSSPI = BCWP / BCWSSPI = BCWP / BCWS
At planned completion BCWS = BACAt planned completion BCWS = BACAt actual completion BCWP = BACAt actual completion BCWP = BACWhen actual > planned completionWhen actual > planned completion
SV = BAC SV = BAC –– BAC = $000BAC = $000SPI = BAC / BAC = 1.00SPI = BAC / BAC = 1.00
Regardless of lateness !!Regardless of lateness !!
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1111
Introduction to Introduction to Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1212
Earned Schedule ConceptEarned Schedule ConceptBCWSBCWPSPI($) =
ATESSPI(t) =
$
Time
BCWS
BCWP
Projection of BCWPonto BCWS
7ATBCWS(May) - BCWS(June)
BCWS(May) - BCWP($) 5 ES
June of Portion May of AllES
=
+=
+=
J J JF M MA A S O N
BCWSBCWPSV($) −=
ATES SV(t) −=
BCWSBCWPSPI($) =BCWSBCWPSPI($) =
ATESSPI(t) =ATESSPI(t) =
$
Time
BCWS
BCWP
Projection of BCWPonto BCWS
7ATBCWS(May) - BCWS(June)
BCWS(May) - BCWP($) 5 ES
June of Portion May of AllES
=
+=
+=
J J JF M MA A S O N
BCWSBCWPSV($) −= BCWSBCWPSV($) −=
ATES SV(t) −= ATES SV(t) −=
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1313
Earned Schedule MetricsEarned Schedule MetricsRequired measuresRequired measures
Performance Management BaselinePerformance Management Baseline (PMB) (PMB) ––the time phased planned values (BCWS) from the time phased planned values (BCWS) from project start to completionproject start to completionEarned ValueEarned Value (BCWP) (BCWP) –– the planned value the planned value which has been which has been ““earnedearned””Actual TimeActual Time (AT) (AT) -- the actual time duration the actual time duration from the project beginning to the time at from the project beginning to the time at which project status is assessedwhich project status is assessed
All measures available from EVMAll measures available from EVM
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1414
Earned Schedule MetricsEarned Schedule MetricsESEScumcum is the:is the:Number of completed BCWS time increments BCWP exceeds + the Number of completed BCWS time increments BCWP exceeds + the fraction of the incomplete BCWS incrementfraction of the incomplete BCWS increment
ESEScumcum = C + I= C + I where:where:C = number of time increments for BCWP C = number of time increments for BCWP ≥≥ BCWSBCWSI = (BCWP I = (BCWP –– BCWSBCWSCC) / (BCWS) / (BCWSC+1C+1 –– BCWSBCWSCC))
ESperiod(n) = EScum(n) ESperiod(n) = EScum(n) –– EScum(nEScum(n--1) = 1) = ∆∆ESEScumcum
ATcum ATcum ATperiod(n) = ATcum(n) ATperiod(n) = ATcum(n) –– ATcum(nATcum(n--1) = 1) = ∆∆ATATcumcum
∆∆ATATcumcum is normally equal to 1is normally equal to 1
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1515
Earned Schedule IndicatorsEarned Schedule Indicators
Schedule Variance: SV(t)Schedule Variance: SV(t)Cumulative: Cumulative: SV(t) = ESSV(t) = EScumcum –– ATATcumcum
Period: Period: ∆∆SV(t) = SV(t) = ∆∆ ESEScumcum –– ∆∆ ATATcumcum
Schedule Performance Index: Schedule Performance Index: SPI(t)SPI(t)Cumulative: Cumulative: SPI(t) = ESSPI(t) = EScumcum / AT/ ATcumcum
Period: Period: ∆∆SPI(t) = SPI(t) = ∆∆ESEScumcum / / ∆∆ATATcumcum
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1616
Earned Schedule IndicatorsEarned Schedule Indicators
What happens to the ES indicators, SV(t) & What happens to the ES indicators, SV(t) & SPI(t), when the planned project duration (PD) SPI(t), when the planned project duration (PD) is exceeded (BCWS = BAC)?is exceeded (BCWS = BAC)?
They Still Work They Still Work ……CorrectlyCorrectly!!!!ES will be ES will be ≤≤ PD, while AT > PDPD, while AT > PD
SV(t) will be negative (time behind schedule)SV(t) will be negative (time behind schedule)SPI(t) will be < 1.00SPI(t) will be < 1.00
Reliable Values from Start to Finish !!Reliable Values from Start to Finish !!
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1717
SV ComparisonSV Comparison
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M-3
-2
-1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
SV($) SV(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
$ Mo
$ Mo
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M-3
-2
-1
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
SV($) SV(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
$ Mo
$ Mo
0
20
40
60
80
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
SV($) SV(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
$ Mo
$ Mo
SV($) SV(t)SV($) SV(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
$ Mo
$ Mo
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1818
SPI ComparisonSPI Comparison
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
SPI($) SPI(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
SPI($) SPI(t)SPI($) SPI(t)
Early Finish Project
Late Finish Project
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 1919
Earned Schedule PredictorsEarned Schedule PredictorsCan the project be completed as planned?Can the project be completed as planned?
TSPI = Plan Remaining / Time RemainingTSPI = Plan Remaining / Time Remaining= (PD = (PD –– ES) / (PD ES) / (PD –– AT)AT)
where (PD where (PD –– ES) = PDWRES) = PDWRPDWR = Planned Duration for Work RemainingPDWR = Planned Duration for Work Remaining
TSPI = (PD TSPI = (PD –– ES) / (ED ES) / (ED –– AT)AT)where ED = Estimated Durationwhere ED = Estimated Duration
Not AchievableNot Achievable>> 1.101.10AchievableAchievable≤≤ 1.001.00
Predicted OutcomeTSPI Value
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2020
Earned Schedule PredictorsEarned Schedule Predictors
Long time goal of EVM Long time goal of EVM ……Prediction of total Prediction of total project duration from present schedule statusproject duration from present schedule statusIndependent Estimate at Completion (time)Independent Estimate at Completion (time)
IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)IEAC(t) = AT + (PD IEAC(t) = AT + (PD –– ES) / PF(t)ES) / PF(t)
where PF(t) is the Performance Factor (time)where PF(t) is the Performance Factor (time)
Analogous to IEAC used to predict final costAnalogous to IEAC used to predict final cost
Independent Estimated Completion Date (IECD)Independent Estimated Completion Date (IECD)IECD = Start Date + IEAC(t)IECD = Start Date + IEAC(t)
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2121
Earned Schedule TerminologyEarned Schedule TerminologyEarned ScheduleEVM
To Complete Schedule Performance Index (TSPI)
To Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
Independent EAC (time)IEAC(t) (customer)
Independent EAC (IEAC) (customer)
Estimate at Completion (time) EAC(t) (supplier)
Estimate at Completion (EAC) (supplier)Prediction
Variance at Completion (time) VAC(t)
Variance at Completion (VAC)
Estimate to Complete (time) ETC(t)Estimate to Complete (ETC)Work
Planned Duration for Work Remaining (PDWR)
Budgeted Cost for Work Remaining (BCWR)Future
SPI(t)SPISV(t)SV
Actual Time (AT)Actual Costs (AC)StatusEarned Schedule (ES)Earned Value (EV)
Earned ScheduleEVM
To Complete Schedule Performance Index (TSPI)
To Complete Performance Index (TCPI)
Independent EAC (time)IEAC(t) (customer)
Independent EAC (IEAC) (customer)
Estimate at Completion (time) EAC(t) (supplier)
Estimate at Completion (EAC) (supplier)Prediction
Variance at Completion (time) VAC(t)
Variance at Completion (VAC)
Estimate to Complete (time) ETC(t)Estimate to Complete (ETC)Work
Planned Duration for Work Remaining (PDWR)
Budgeted Cost for Work Remaining (BCWR)Future
SPI(t)SPISV(t)SV
Actual Time (AT)Actual Costs (AC)StatusEarned Schedule (ES)Earned Value (EV)
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2222
Earned Schedule TerminologyEarned Schedule Terminology
at Completion (time)Independent Estimate
Performance IndexTo Complete Schedule
Schedule Performance Index
Schedule Variance
Actual Time
Earned Schedule
IEAC(t) = AT + (PD – ES) / PF
IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)IEAC(t)Predictors
TSPI(t) = (PD – ES) / (ED – AT)
TSPI(t) = (PD – ES) / (PD – AT)TSPI(t)
SPI(t) = ES / ATSPI(t)Indicators
SV(t) = ES - ATSV(t)
AT = number of periods executedATcum
ES = C + I number of complete periods (C) plus an incomplete portion (I)
EScumMetrics
at Completion (time)Independent Estimate
Performance IndexTo Complete Schedule
Schedule Performance Index
Schedule Variance
Actual Time
Earned Schedule
IEAC(t) = AT + (PD – ES) / PF(t)
IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)IEAC(t)Predictors
TSPI(t) = (PD – ES) / (ED – AT)
TSPI(t) = (PD – ES) / (PD – AT)TSPI(t)
SPI(t) = ES / ATSPI(t)Indicators
SV(t) = ES - ATSV(t)
AT = number of periods executedATcum
ES = C + I number of complete periods (C) plus an incomplete portion (I)
EScumMetrics
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2323
Earned Schedule Key PointsEarned Schedule Key Points
ES Indicators constructed to behave in an ES Indicators constructed to behave in an analogous manner to the EVM Cost Indicators, analogous manner to the EVM Cost Indicators, CV and CPICV and CPISV(t) and SPI(t)SV(t) and SPI(t)
NotNot constrained by BCWS calculation referenceconstrained by BCWS calculation referenceProvide Provide durationduration based measures of schedule based measures of schedule performanceperformanceValid for entire project, including early and late finishValid for entire project, including early and late finish
Facilitates integrated Cost/Schedule Facilitates integrated Cost/Schedule ManagementManagement (using EVM with ES)(using EVM with ES)
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2424
Application of ConceptApplication of Concept(Using Real Project Data)(Using Real Project Data)
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2525
ES Applied to Real Project Data:ES Applied to Real Project Data:Late Finish Project: SV($) and SV(t)Late Finish Project: SV($) and SV(t)
Commercial IT Infrastructure Expansion Project Phase 1 Cost and Schedule Variances
at Project Projection: Week Starting 15th July xx
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Elapsed Weeks
Dol
lars
(,00
0)
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Wee
ks
CV cum SV cum Target SV & CV SV (t) cum
Stop wk 19
Re-start wk 26Sched wk 20
Stop wk 19
Sched wk 20 Re-start wk 26
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2626
Early Finish Project: Early Finish Project: SV($) and SV(t)SV($) and SV(t)
Commerical IT Infrastructure Expansion Project: Phases 2 & 3 CombinedCost and Schedule Variances
as at Project Completion: Week Starting 9th October xx
-25.0
-15.0
-5.0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Elapsed Weeks
Dol
lars
($,0
00)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Wee
ks
Target SV & CV CV cum SV ($) cum SV (t) cum
Stop wk 16
Re-start wk 19
Sched wk 25Sched wk 25
Stop wk 16
Re-start wk 19
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2727
Prediction ComparisonsPrediction Comparisons
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2828
““Further DevelopmentsFurther Developments””in Earned Schedulein Earned Schedule
Schedule Duration PredictionSchedule Duration PredictionCalculation of IEAC(t): short formCalculation of IEAC(t): short form
IEAC(t) = Planned Duration / SPI(t)IEAC(t) = Planned Duration / SPI(t)
Planned Duration for Work RemainingPlanned Duration for Work Remaining
PDWR = Planned Duration PDWR = Planned Duration –– Earned Schedule cumEarned Schedule cumAnalogous to the EVM BCWR Analogous to the EVM BCWR
Calculation of IEAC(t): long formCalculation of IEAC(t): long form
PDWRPDWRIEAC(t) = Actual Time +IEAC(t) = Actual Time +
Performance FactorPerformance Factor
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 2929
IEAC(t) Prediction ComparisonIEAC(t) Prediction ComparisonEarly and Late Finish Project ExamplesEarly and Late Finish Project Examples
In both examples, the In both examples, the pre ESpre ES predictors (in red) predictors (in red) failfail to correctly to correctly calculate the Actual Duration at Completion!calculate the Actual Duration at Completion!The ES predictor, SPI(t) alone The ES predictor, SPI(t) alone correctlycorrectly calculates the Actual calculates the Actual Duration at Completion in both casesDuration at Completion in both cases
Planned Duration (weeks) 25Actual Time (weeks) 22
Percentage Complete cum 100%CPI cum 2.08
SPI(t) cum 1.14SPI($) cum 1.17
Critical Ratio cum 2.43IEAC(t) PD/SPI(t) cum 22.0IEAC(t) PD/SPI($) cum 21.4
IEAC(t) PD/CR cum 10.3
IEAC(t) Metrics at Project Completion Early Finish Project
Planned Duration (weeks) 20Actual Time (weeks) 34
Percentage Complete cum 100%CPI cum 0.52
SPI(t) cum 0.59SPI($) cum 1.00
Critical Ratio cum 0.52IEAC(t) PD/SPI(t) cum 34.0IEAC(t) PD/SPI($) cum 20.0
IEAC(t) PD/ CR cum 38.7
IEAC(t) Metrics at Project Completion Late Finish Project - pre ES
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3030
““Further DevelopmentsFurther Developments””in Earned Schedule in Earned Schedule
Schedule Duration PredictionSchedule Duration Prediction (continued)(continued)
Pre ES formulae and results algebraically flawedPre ES formulae and results algebraically flawed““... there is little theoretical justification for EVM ... there is little theoretical justification for EVM practitioners continuing to use the pre ES predictorspractitioners continuing to use the pre ES predictorsof schedule performance. Conversion to and use of the of schedule performance. Conversion to and use of the ES based techniques is strongly recommended.ES based techniques is strongly recommended.””
There’s got to be a better
method!
- Kym Henderson
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3131
IEAC(t) Predictions using IEAC(t) Predictions using ESES Techniques:Techniques:Same Same Early and Late Finish Project ExamplesEarly and Late Finish Project Examples
Use of the ES Use of the ES ““long formlong form”” IEAC(t) formula, results in IEAC(t) formula, results in correctcorrectcalculation of Actual Duration at Completioncalculation of Actual Duration at Completion
Planned Duration (weeks) 20Actual Time (weeks) 34
Earned Schedule cum 20.0Planned Duration Work
Remaining 0.0
Percentage Complete cum 100%CPI cum 0.53
SPI(t) cum 0.59SPI($) cum 1.00
Critical Ratio cum 0.52Critical Ratio ES cum 0.30
IEAC(t) PF = SPI(t) cum 34.0IEAC(t) PF = SPI($) cum 34.0
IEAC(t) PF = CR cum 34.0IEAC(t) PF = CR ES cum 34.0
IEAC(t) Metrics at Project Completion Late Finish Project using ES
Planned Duration (weeks) 25Actual Time (weeks) 22
Earned Schedule cum 25.0Planned Duration Work
Remaining 0.0
Percentage Complete cum 100%CPI cum 2.08
SPI(t) cum 1.14SPI($) cum 1.17
Critical Ratio cum 2.43Critical Ratio ES cum 2.37
IEAC(t) PF = SPI(t) cum 22.0IEAC(t) PF = SPI($) cum 22.0
IEAC(t) PF = CR cum 22.0IEAC(t) PF = CR ES cum 22.0
IEAC(t) Metrics at Project Completion Early Finish Project using ES
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3232
IEAC(t) Predictions using IEAC(t) Predictions using ESES Techniques:Techniques:
ES formulae and results are algebraically correctES formulae and results are algebraically correct
““Whilst assessments of the predictive utility of the ES Whilst assessments of the predictive utility of the ES calculated IEAC(t) and the relative merits of using the calculated IEAC(t) and the relative merits of using the various performance factors available are matters for various performance factors available are matters for further research and empiric validation, the further research and empiric validation, the theoretical integrity of ES now seems confirmed.theoretical integrity of ES now seems confirmed.””
There IS a better
method!
- Kym Henderson
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3333
2 My Experience Summarised2 My Experience Summarised
π Stephan VandevoordeIIPMC 2005 Fall Conference Rev.2
Schedule Performance Indicators (for early and late finish projeSchedule Performance Indicators (for early and late finish projects):cts):SPI(t) & SV(t) do portray the real schedule performanceSPI(t) & SV(t) do portray the real schedule performancein agreement with [1] [2]in agreement with [1] [2]
Forecasting Duration (for early and late finish projects):Forecasting Duration (for early and late finish projects):at early & middle project stage: preat early & middle project stage: pre--ES & ES forecasts produce ES & ES forecasts produce similar results similar results at late project stage: ES forecasts outperform all preat late project stage: ES forecasts outperform all pre--ES ES forecasts in agreement with [2] [3]forecasts in agreement with [2] [3]
Assessing Project Duration (for early and late finish projects):Assessing Project Duration (for early and late finish projects):the use of the SPI(t) in conjunction with the TCSPI(t) has been the use of the SPI(t) in conjunction with the TCSPI(t) has been demonstrated to be useful to manage the schedule expectations demonstrated to be useful to manage the schedule expectations application of [3]application of [3]
[1] Lipke Walt, Schedule is Different, The Measurable News, Summ[1] Lipke Walt, Schedule is Different, The Measurable News, Summer 2003er 2003[2] [2] Henderson Kym, Henderson Kym, Earned Schedule: A Breakthrough Extension to Earned Value TheoryEarned Schedule: A Breakthrough Extension to Earned Value Theory? A ? A
Retrospective Analysis of Real Project Data,Retrospective Analysis of Real Project Data,The Measurable News, Summer 2003The Measurable News, Summer 2003[3] Henderson, Kym, [3] Henderson, Kym, Further Development in Earned Schedule,Further Development in Earned Schedule,The Measurable News, Spring The Measurable News, Spring
20042004
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3434
Demonstration of Earned Demonstration of Earned Schedule CalculatorSchedule Calculator
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3535
Earned Schedule CalculatorEarned Schedule Calculator
Earned Schedule Calculator (V1)
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3636
Status UpdateStatus Update
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3737
Early AdoptersEarly Adopters
EVM Instructors EVM Instructors PMA, Management Technologies PMA, Management Technologies ……
Boeing DreamlinerBoeing Dreamliner®®, Lockheed Martin, US State , Lockheed Martin, US State Department, Secretary of the Air ForceDepartment, Secretary of the Air ForceSeveral Countries Several Countries -- Australia, Belgium, Sweden, Australia, Belgium, Sweden, USA USA ……Applications across weapons programs, Applications across weapons programs, construction, software development, construction, software development, ……Range of project size from very small and short Range of project size from very small and short to extremely large and long durationto extremely large and long duration
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3838
PMIPMI--CPM EVM Practice StandardCPM EVM Practice Standard
Inclusion of Emerging Practice Inclusion of Emerging Practice Insert into PMI Insert into PMI -- EVM Practice EVM Practice StandardStandard
Dr. John Singley, VP of CPMDr. John Singley, VP of CPMIncluded in Box 3Included in Box 3--1 of EVM 1 of EVM Practice StandardPractice Standard
Describes basic principles of Describes basic principles of ““Earned ScheduleEarned Schedule””Provides foundation for Provides foundation for acceptance as a valid acceptance as a valid extension to EVMextension to EVM
EVM Practice Standard EVM Practice Standard released at 2004 IPMC released at 2004 IPMC ConferenceConference
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 3939
Available ResourcesAvailable Resources
PMIPMI--Sydney Sydney http://sydney.pmichaptershttp://sydney.pmichapters--australia.org.au/australia.org.au/
Repository for ES Papers and PresentationsRepository for ES Papers and Presentations
Earned Schedule Website Earned Schedule Website http://www.earnedschedule.com/http://www.earnedschedule.com/
Established February 2006Established February 2006Contains Contains News, Papers, Presentations, ES News, Papers, Presentations, ES Terminology, ES CalculatorsTerminology, ES CalculatorsIdentifies Contacts to assist with applicationIdentifies Contacts to assist with application
Wikipedia now references Earned ScheduleWikipedia now references Earned Schedulehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_Schedulehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_Schedule
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 4040
Foreseen Uses of Earned ScheduleForeseen Uses of Earned Schedule
Enables independent evaluation of schedule estimates: Enables independent evaluation of schedule estimates: ETC(t), EAC(t)ETC(t), EAC(t)
Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager ……..Facilitates insight into network schedule performanceFacilitates insight into network schedule performance
Duration based Schedule indicatorsDuration based Schedule indicatorsIdentification of impediments/constraints and potential future Identification of impediments/constraints and potential future reworkreworkEvaluation of adherence to planEvaluation of adherence to plan
Improvement to Schedule and Cost predictionImprovement to Schedule and Cost predictionClient, Contractor, Program and Project Manager Client, Contractor, Program and Project Manager ……..
Application of direct statistical analysis of schedule Application of direct statistical analysis of schedule performanceperformance
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 4141
3 Research Efforts 3 Research Efforts (2/3)(2/3)
9 π Stephan Vandevoorde
[8] Vanhoucke Mario, Vandevoorde Stephan, A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration , Working Paper 2005/317, July 2005, Ghent University
Plans are made to present the research report “A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration” at the 22nd PMI-CPM Spring Conference 2006.
Extracted results from [8]: Forecast Accuracy and the CompletionExtracted results from [8]: Forecast Accuracy and the Completion of of WorkWork
Simulation runs performed: 1 run project finish ahead of schedulSimulation runs performed: 1 run project finish ahead of schedule, 1 run projects finish behinde, 1 run projects finish behind
Mean Percentage Error (MPE) for early finish projects
-0,20-0,15-0,10-0,050,000,050,10
0%-30% 30%-70% 70%-100%
PD/SPI PD/SPI(t)
Mean Percentage Error (MPE) for late finish projects
-0,10
-0,05
0,00
0,05
0,10
0%-30% 30%-70% 70%-100%
PD/SPI PD/SPI(t)
IPMC 2005 Fall Conference - ES Practice Symposia Final
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 4242
SummarySummary
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 4343
Summary Summary -- BasicBasicDerived from EVM data Derived from EVM data …… onlyonlyProvides timeProvides time--based schedule indicatorsbased schedule indicatorsIndicators do not fail for late finish projectsIndicators do not fail for late finish projectsApplication is scalable up/down, just as is EVMApplication is scalable up/down, just as is EVMSchedule prediction is better than any other EVM Schedule prediction is better than any other EVM method presently usedmethod presently used
SPI(t) behaves similarly to CPISPI(t) behaves similarly to CPIIEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t) behaves similarly to IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t) behaves similarly to IEAC = BAC / CPIIEAC = BAC / CPI
Copyright 2006 LipkeCopyright 2006 Lipke 4444
SummarySummarySchedule prediction Schedule prediction –– much easier and possibly much easier and possibly better than better than ““bottomsbottoms--upup”” schedule analysisschedule analysisApplication is growing in both small and large Application is growing in both small and large projectsprojectsPractice recognized as Practice recognized as ““Emerging PracticeEmerging Practice””Resource availability enhanced with ES website Resource availability enhanced with ES website and Wikipediaand WikipediaResearch indicates ES superior to other methods Research indicates ES superior to other methods
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SummarySummaryFacilitates bridging EVM to schedule analysisFacilitates bridging EVM to schedule analysis
Identification of Constraints / Impediments and Identification of Constraints / Impediments and ReworkReworkCalculation of Schedule AdherenceCalculation of Schedule Adherence
Creation of Effective Earned ValueCreation of Effective Earned Value
Leads to improved Leads to improved Schedule & Cost ForecastingSchedule & Cost Forecasting
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WrapWrap--Up Up
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ConclusionConclusion““Whatever can be done using EVM for Whatever can be done using EVM for Cost Analysis can also be done using Cost Analysis can also be done using Earned Schedule for Schedule AnalysisEarned Schedule for Schedule Analysis””
Earned ScheduleEarned ScheduleA powerful new dimension to Integrated A powerful new dimension to Integrated Project Performance Management (IPPM) Project Performance Management (IPPM) A breakthrough in theory and applicationA breakthrough in theory and application
the first scheduling system
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Contact InformationContact Information
61 414 428 53761 414 428 537PhonePhone(405) 364(405) 364--15941594
kym.henderson@froggy.com.aukym.henderson@froggy.com.auEmailEmailwaltlipke@cox.netwaltlipke@cox.net
Kym HendersonKym HendersonWalt LipkeWalt Lipke
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