ea energy analyses bspc climate and energy working group dinner table discussion baltic sea...
Post on 05-Jan-2016
213 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Ea Energy Analyses
BSPC Climate and Energy Working Group
Dinner Table Discussion Baltic Sea Scenarios
Copenhagen, 20 October 2008
Helge Ørsted PedersenEa Energy Analyses
www.eaea.dk
Ea Energy Analyses
Ea Energy Analyses
Ea Energy Analyses
The Future Danish Energy System
The Danish Board of Technology: 2004-2007 Future Panel – Danish Parliamentarians Steering group with stakeholders Public hearing, workshops and seminars Scenario report + project newsletters to the
Parliament Modeling tool and data – STREAM
Used for education at Danish Technical University and Roskilde University
CO2-emissions: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 1990Oil consumption: 50 % reduction in 2025 in relation to 2004
Ea Energy Analyses
Denmark’s gross energy consumption
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Oil
CoalRE
Natural gas
PJ
GDP 100 150
Energy Policy Securty of supply + Economy + Environment + Climate
Infrastructure Liberalisation Organisation
Market Energy and heat planning Market + Framework
Self-Suffieciency 0 % 145 %
+ Preparedness
District Heating 1,5 mio. households0,7 mio. households
2007
Technology Export 5 b. kr. 46 b. kr.
Ea Energy Analyses
The Danish Board of TechnologyThe Future Energy System
Dinner debate in the Danish Parliament in May 2006
Ea Energy Analyses
Combination Scenario
Gross
Gross energy consumption
Ea Energy Analyses
5 stakeholder workshops on key measures
Ea Energy Analyses
Prepared by
The Danish Board of TechnologyRISØ DTU
Ea Energy Analyses
Jan 2007 – Oct 2008
Towards50% oil reduction
50% CO2 emissions reduction
Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030
Ea Energy Analyses
Process of dialogue
Politicians
Utilities
Energy planners
Project developers
Researchers
OthersQuestions
Answers
Nov/Dec. Sep. - Oct.Feb. - March April - May
WebsiteWebsite
20082007
MEPsDialogue on- targets- measures- scenarios
MEPsStakeholdersExperts-Energy-Transport-Savings
Scenario reportRoad-mapModel tool+data
Scenario reportRoad-mapModel tool+data
Workshop Workshop
Phase II
STREAM updated, data, and scenarios
STREAM updated, data, and scenarios
Phase I
DisseminationDissemination
Public model tool -STREAMDraft report
Dinner debateDinner debate Final workshop
Ea Energy Analyses
Two scenarios
Small-tech
• Energy savings• District heating - CHP• Biomass• Solar, wind, wave
• Improved fuel economy
• Modal-change• Electric vehicles• ICT
Big-tech
• Carbon Capture & Storage
• Nuclear power• Biomass
• Improved fuel economy• Modal-change• Electric vehicles• Biofuels
Energy
Transport
…or perhaps a combination
Ea Energy Analyses
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
2005 Reference 2030 Small-Tech Big-tech
PJ
Gross energy consumption EU 27
Nuclear
RE
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
50% oil target
Results
Ea Energy Analyses
Results
Ea Energy Analyses
Resources and security of supply
Ea Energy Analyses
Economic results
• Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the scenario year (2030) i.e. – the average annual capital costs– costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs
• Not considered– Health benefits– Cost of modal change and improved efficiency in transport– Transaction costs related to implementation
• Technology and fuel costs may divert from projections
• Therefore: interpret results with caution
Ea Energy Analyses
Annuitised cost - extra costs in Small-Tech compared to reference
(case with low fuel price)
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total
million €/year
Economics
Fuel price projections Oil(USD/bbl)
Gas($/MBtu)
Coal($/ton)
Low (IEA projection 2007*)
62 7.3 61
High(Prices in September 2008)
115 16 179
Small-tech
CO2:45 €/t
Annuitised cost - extra costs in Big-Tech compared to reference
(case with low fuel price)
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total
million €/year
Ea Energy Analyses
EU Member states LocalGlobal
Research, Development and Education
EU’s quota systemTo utilise practical experience
Local Commitment
Planning – Infrastructure for electricity, natural gas and district heating
Taxes and incentives
Demonstration of flexible energy systemConsumers - Producers
Transnational planning of offshore windmills
Hydro Wind District Heating
City planning and transport policies
Electric/plug-in hybrid cars/busesTo develop
energy efficient vehicles Public Purchase Policy
CO2 Neutral Houses
Energy labelling and dynamic norms
Green Campaigns
Intelligent Energy System
Municipalities/cities
Existing buildings
Urban districts
Goals
Ea Energy Analyses
Copenhagen, 20 October 2008
Prepared by Ea Energy Analyses
Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction…in 2030
Energy Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region
top related