e crime symposium june 10

Situation normal, everything must

change

Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/

Pain

No. Slides

Pain

No. Slides

Pain

OK

20 slides

No. Slides

Pain

OK

Severerisk of harm

246 slides

photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/

Cloud?

Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, and benefits will be refined in a spirited debate by the public and private sectors. These definitions, attributes, and characteristics will evolve and change over time.

Note 2: The cloud computing industry represents a large ecosystem of many models, vendors, and market niches. This definition attempts to encompass all of the various cloud approaches.Definition of Cloud Computing:

Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models, and four deployment models.

Essential Characteristics:On-demand self-service. A consumer can unilaterally provision computing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, as needed automatically without requiring human interaction with each service’s provider. Broad network access. Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and PDAs).Resource pooling. The provider’s computing resources are pooled to serve multiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physical and virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned according to consumer demand. There is a sense of location independence in that the customer generally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of the provided resources but may be able to specify location at a higher level of abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter). Examples of resources include storage, processing, memory, network bandwidth, and virtual machines.Rapid elasticity. Capabilities can be rapidly and elastically provisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out and rapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilities available for provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can be purchased in any quantity at any time.Measured Service. Cloud systems automatically control and optimize resource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level of abstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage, processing, bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can be monitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both the provider and consumer of the utilized service.

Service Models:Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to use the provider’s applications running on a cloud infrastructure. The applications are accessible from various client devices through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based email). The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, storage, or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings.Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquired applications created using programming languages and tools supported by the provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, or storage, but has control over the deployed applications and possibly application hosting environment configurations.Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems, storage, deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networking components (e.g., host firewalls).

Deployment Models:Private cloud. The cloud infrastructure is operated solely for an organization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise.Community cloud. The cloud infrastructure is shared by several organizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns (e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and compliance considerations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise.Public cloud. The cloud infrastructure is made available to the general public or a large industry group and is owned by an organization selling cloud services.Hybrid cloud. The cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or more clouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities but are bound together by standardized or proprietary technology that enables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting for load-balancing between clouds).Note: Cloud software takes full advantage of the cloud paradigm by being service oriented with a focus on statelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.

Point 1Cloud computing is still an evolving

paradigm.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet.

“The real thing to do today is to capture, what are the dimensions of the thing that literally, I will tell you, we’re betting our

company on, and I think pretty much everybody in the technology industry is

betting their companies on”

Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

but bet your company on it

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

We don’t know what “cloud” is yet

but bet your company on it

everybody else is.

“open up exciting new prospects for the

employment of computers in ways and on a scale that would have seemed pure

fantasy only five year ago”

“The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill

1966

http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg

http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png

Computer Utility Cloud Computing

Change

ChangeWhy now?

ChangeWhy now?

Benefits & Risk

ChangeWhy now?

Benefits & RiskGeneral

ChangeWhy now?

Benefits & RiskGeneral

Managing Change

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

TV’s, Phones & VCRS

Certainty

Ubiquity

TV’s, Phones & VCRS

InnovationCertainty

Ubiquity

Commodity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Innovation of early lists, 1980.

Certainty

Ubiquity

Custom built, DB MarketingMid 80s

Certainty

Ubiquity

ProductEarly 90s

Certainty

Ubiquity

Utility Services of Salesforce

Certainty

Ubiquity

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubiquity

Innovation of Z3, 1941Certainty

Ubiquity

Custom Built LEO, 1946

Certainty

Ubiquity

Products IBM 650, 1954

Certainty

Ubiquity

Commodity Hardware

Certainty

Ubiquity

Utility services of Amazon EC2

Certainty

Ubiquity

Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821

Certainty

Ubiquity

Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Utility Services of the National

Grid

Certainty

Ubiquity

Accounts

Payroll

HR systems

Information market

Enterprise 2.0

InfrastructureCRM

ERP

VRM

Electricity

Search Engines

Web Portal

Certainty

Ubiquity

Commodi

tisation

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege

http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/

Demand (user competition)

Certainty

Ubiquity

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/

Improvement (supply competition)

Certainty

Ubiquity

Demand (user competition)

Commodi

tisation

Certainty

Ubiquity

Improvement (supply competition)

Demand (user competition)

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Widespread(Demand)

Feature Complete(Improvement)

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Utility Services

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Platform

Database Framework

Operating System

Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubiquity

ChangeWhy now?

Concept

Concept

Suitability

Concept

Suitability

Technology?

Gerald J. Popek (1947-2008)

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

?

http://www.strassmann.com/Paul Strassmann

Nick Carr

Diminis

hing

strateg

ic valu

e

Certainty

Ubiquity

Payroll

HR Systems

CRMERP

Infrastructure

Finance & Accounting

Sales Automation

Certainty

Ubiquity

PayrollHR

Certainty

Ubiquity

PayrollHR

Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising

stuff has no strategic value?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Customise your payroll system!

Certainty

Ubiquity

Way back when ...

Certainty

Ubiquity

Way back when ...

Now

Certainty

Ubiquity

Standardised Service!

Certainty

Ubiquity

Marketplace

Standardised Service!

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

... as aService

Certainty

Ubiquity

ChangeWhy now?

Benefits & Risk

Certainty

Ubiquity

Early UtilityWestinghouse,

1890s

Product Hippolyte Pixii,

1830s

Certainty

Ubiquity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Certainty

Ubiquity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Certainty

Ubiquity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubiquity

Economies of scale(volume operations)

Focus on core (outsource)

Pay per use (utility)

Certainty

Ubiquity

efficiency

Certainty

Ubiquity

Agility (Self Service)

New server

64 node cluster

Previous Time(mins)

72,000

130,000

New server

64 node cluster

Previous Time(mins)

Cloud Time(mins)

72,000

130,000

7

15

Certainty

Ubiquity

Agility (Self Service)

Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation)

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.

The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

newnew

newnew

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

Creative Destruction

Erodin

g Valu

e

Certainty

Ubiquity

Erodin

g Valu

e

EnablesInnovation

Certainty

Ubiquity

ElectricityInternet

Certainty

Ubiquity

Hardware

Electricity

Hardware

Internet

Search

Certainty

Ubiquity

EnableInnovation

Certainty

Ubiquity

EnableInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Rate of evolution of a system is

dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems.

Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)

Application

Database Framework Messaging

Application

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

Database Framework

Operating System

CPU Memory I/O

Messaging

Application

Virtualisation

CPU

Application

Orders of Magnitude

Certainty

Ubiquity

AcceleratedInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)

Agility (Self Service)

Certainty

Opportunity(long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity)

Ubiquity

Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation)

Projects

Impo

rtan

ce

Limit of IT

Projects

Impo

rtan

ce

Limit of IT

demand(backlog)

Quantity

Price

!P

!Q

InnovationFlemming Valve, 1904

Certainty

Ubiquity

ProductsIntel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971

Certainty

Ubiquity

Busicom

MCS-4

Busicom

MCS-4

Busicom

Co-Evolution

> 1,000,000,000,000,000,000

Agility (Self Service)

Certainty

Opportunity(long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity)

Ubiquity

Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation)

Certainty

Ubiquity

consumption

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

It’ll reduce your IT spend.

consumption

efficiency

William Stanley Jevons, 1865

“Jevons Paradox”

Technological progress that increases the

efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to

increase the rate of consumption of that

resource.

Choice?

Market

Certainty

Ubiquity

You

Market

Competitive Gap

Certainty

Ubiquity

You

Market

Speed to marketEconomies of scaleFocus on core

Pay per use

Accelerated innovation

Certainty

Ubiquity

You

Pres

sure

Certainty

Ubiquity

Market

You

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubiquity

Market

You

“Red Queen Hypothesis”

The need to constantly evolve in order to stand

still relative to a surrounding ecosystem

Prof. Van Valen

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege

http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/

No Choice?

Certainty

Ubiquity

Marketplace

Certainty

Ubiquity

Private

Marketplace

Certainty

Ubiquity

Hybrid

Certainty

Ubiquity

Transition

GovernanceTrust

Confusion

TransparencySecurity

Transition

GovernanceTrust

Confusion

Transparency

CompetitionLock-inSecond SourceControl

SuitabilityOutsourcing

Security

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid

Certainty

Ubiquity

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Only public cloud is cloud computing!

vsBenefits Risks

Recap

... as aService

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

Certainty

Ubiquity

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Certainty

Ubiquity

AcceleratedInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Transition

GovernanceTrust

Confusion

Transparency

CompetitionLock-inSecond SourceControl

SuitabilityOutsourcing

Security

Certainty

Ubiquity

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubiquity

Market

You

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

Certainty

Ubiquity

Hybrid

vsBenefits Risks

ChangeWhy now?

Benefits & RiskGeneral

IT

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Infrastructure

Certainty

Ubiquity

Infrastructure

Collective Intelligence

Enables

Certainty

Ubiquity

built on ...

provided as ..

Certainty

Ubiquity

Certainty

Ubiquity

Hybrid

Data

Code

Data

Code

Proprietary Open Source

Proprietary Open Source

TCO

Proprietary Open Source

Exit

defacto public standard

open source implementation

Minimise future costs

ChangeWhy now?

Benefits & RiskGeneral

Managing Change

Certainty

Ubiquity

Accounts

Payroll

HR systems

Information market

Enterprise 2.0

InfrastructureCRM

ERP

VRM

Electricity

Search Engines

Web Portal

Certainty

Ubiquity

Accounts

Payroll

HR systems

Information market

Enterprise 2.0

InfrastructureCRM

ERP

VRM

Electricity

Search Engines

Web Portal

Lifecycle

Lifecycle

#

Lifecycle

#

Lifecycle

#

Payroll

HR systems

Infrastructure

CRM

Electricity

Lifecycle

#

Information market

Enterprise 2.0

VRM

Lifecycle

#

Demand vs Suppply CompetitionCo-evolution

Commoditisation

Lifecycle

#

CommoditisationDemand vs Suppply Competition

Co-evolution

InnovationCreative DestructionComponentisation

Lifecycle

#

Lifecycle

#

Dynamic

Lifecycle

#

DeviationDynamic

Lifecycle

#

DeviationDynamic

Uncertain

Lifecycle

#

Emergent

DeviationDynamic

Uncertain

Lifecycle

#

Emergent

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Lifecycle

#

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Lifecycle

#

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic

Lifecycle

#

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Lifecycle

#

Repeatable

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Lifecycle

#

StandardisedRepeatable

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Lifecycle

#

StandardisedKnown

Repeatable

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Lifecycle

#

Predictable

StandardisedKnown

Repeatable

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Lifecycle

#

ProceduralPredictable

StandardisedKnown

Repeatable

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Lifecycle

#

ProceduralPredictable

CODB

StandardisedKnown

Repeatable

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Lifecycle

#

ProceduralPredictable

CODB

StandardisedKnown

Repeatable

Emergent

Competive Adv.

DeviationDynamic

Serendipty

Uncertain

Chaotic Linear

Chaotic Linear

Lifecycle

#

Innovation of early lists, 1980.

Utility Services of Salesforce

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Use Six Sigma!

Lifecycle

# Six Sigma

Lifecycle

#

Predictable

StandardisedKnown

RepeatableSix Sigma

Lifecycle

#

Emergent

DeviationDynamic

Uncertain

Six Sigma

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

Use Six Sigma!

No! Use Agile!

Lifecycle

#

Emergent

DeviationDynamic

Uncertain

Agile

Agile

Lifecycle

#

Predictable

StandardisedKnown

Repeatable

Lifecycle

#

No Magic Bullet

Lifecycle

#

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

Lifecycle

#

Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

Prof. Van Valen

Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’.

Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues.

Salaman & Storey

Innovation Paradox

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/

One Size fits all!

Product

Custom builtInnovation

Commodity

Utility Services

Certainty

Ubiquity

Lifecycle

#

Lifecycle

#

Six Sigma

Lifecycle

#

Lifecycle

#

Outsource

Lifecycle

#

Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising

stuff has no strategic value?

Lifecycle

#

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Lifecycle

#

Innovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Lifecycle

#

“Provided as” “Built on”

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/3979391704/

Recap

... as aService

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

... as aProduct

Certainty

Ubiquity

Concept

Suitability

Technology

Attitude

Certainty

Ubiquity

AcceleratedInnovation

Infrastructure

Platform

Software

Transition

GovernanceTrust

Confusion

Transparency

CompetitionLock-inSecond SourceControl

SuitabilityOutsourcing

Security

Certainty

Ubiquity

consumption

efficiency

Pres

sure

Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis”

Certainty

Ubiquity

Market

You

http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby

Certainty

Ubiquity

Hybrid

vsBenefits Risks

defacto public standard

open source implementation

Minimise future costs

Lifecycle

#

“Provided as” “Built on”

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088

Lifecycle

#

CommoditisationDemand vs Suppply Competition

Co-evolution

InnovationCreative DestructionComponentisation

Leading Edge Forum 06/08/10 02:53 AM

The annual LEF EP Study Tour this year will focus on the rapid evolution of IT consumerization – In terms of driving business change

2010 Study Tour – Surf the Change or Be Swept Away – Consumerization, Mobility, and the Cloud

• How do we treat IT-savvy employees and customers – in terms of their technology decision rights?

• How do we promote business value add in terms of social networking tool usage? – without “heavy handed “ IT governance?

• What information sharing rules need to be changed in an era of increased external collaboration?

• How do we make it easier for staff to leverage cloud computing services? – while maintaining enterprise discipline around security and risk?

Some Key Questions To Be Addressed

17 – 22 October 2010San Francisco, USA

For more information, visit: http://lef.csc.com/events/studytour