dudley charts
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. .
.PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer
FederalReserveBankofNewYorkWashingtonandLeeUniversity
H.ParkerWillisLectureinPoliticalEconomicsLexington,VAApril1,2010
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2 2
Percent Percent
Current Account Balance as a Percent of GDP
0 0
- -
- -
- -
-8
1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
-8
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
1
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Real Broad Trade Weighted Value of the US DollarIndex Index
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Federal Reserve Board2Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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20 20
10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant MaturityPercent Percent
16 16
12 12
8 8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Federal Reserve Board3Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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% Change Year to Year % Change Year - Year
Net Stock: Private Residential, Nonresidential Structures, andEquipment and Software
10 10
Equipment andSoftware
8 8
6 6
4 4
Residential
2 2
NonresidentialStructures
0
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
0
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis4Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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Total Balance by Credit Score QuintileBillions of Dollars
Median
Credit Score
of Quintile Percent of Percent of
PercentChange
from
Previous Percent of
PercentChange
from
Previous
2005-Q1 2008-Q3 2009-Q3
(2005-Q1) Total Debt Total Total Debt Total Period Total Debt Total Period
807 2020.0 22.2% 2290.0 18.7% 13.4% 2190.0 18.8% -4.4%
-. . . . . . . - .
708 2360.0 26.0% 3450.0 28.2% 46.2% 3300.0 28.3% -4.3%
631 1450.0 16.0% 2280.0 18.7% 57.2% 2130.0 18.3% -6.6%
538 928.0 10.2% 1090.0 8.9% 17.5% 1040.0 8.9% -4.6%
Total 9088.0 100.0% 12220.0 100.0% 34.5% 11670.0 100.0% -4.5%
Source: FRBNY Equifax Panel Dataset
5
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70 70
Percent PercentHomeownership Rate
68 68
66 66
64 64
62
1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
62
Source: Census Bureau
6Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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Index Index
Loan Performance House Price Index & CommercialReal Estate Price Index
200 200Loan Performance:
HPI
160 160Commercial
Real Estate
120 120
80
2000 2003 2006 2009
80
Source: Loan Performance and MIT Real Estate Center
8Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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First Mortgages: 90+ Day Delinquency Rates
Ratio Ratio(Series set to 1.0 at 4Q prior to NBER peak)
. .% of number of loans% of number of loans Q4 09Q4 09
3.0
.
3.0
.
Current Cycle
2.0 2.0
1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
1990-1991 Cycle 1981-1982 Cycle1974-1975 Cycle
- - - -
Quarters Since 4Q Prior to NBER Peak
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
9
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Percent of 90+ days Late Mortgage Balance Owned byMultiple Home Owners
45453+ home owners 2 home owners
Percent Percent
3535
2525
1515
5
10
5
10
00
04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Source: Equifax, FRBNY
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30 30
Percent Percent
Household Liabilities as a Percent of Net Worth
25 25
20 20
15 15
10
1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
10
Source: Federal Reserve Board
11Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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RatioRatio
(Series Set to 1.0 at NBER Peak)Real GDP
1.10 1.10
1.05 1.05
1973 Cycle1981 Cycle
1.00 1.00
0.95 0.95
Current Cycle
- -
Quarters Since NBER Peak
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
12
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DifferenceDifference
(Series Set to 0.0 at NBER Peak)Unemployment Rate
5.0
6.0
5.0
6.0
Current Cycle
4.0 4.0
2.0
3.0
2.0
3.0
1.0 1.01981 Cycle
-1.0
0.0
-1.0
0.0
- -
Quarters Since NBER Peak
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics13
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68 36.0
Labor Force Participation Rate and Average Weekly HoursPercent 3 Month Moving Average Hours 3 Month Moving Average
35.5
Participation Rate(left axis)
34.5
35.0
34.0
33.0
33.5verage ee y ours
(right axis)
64
32.5
63
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
32.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics14Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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RatioRatio
(Series Set to 1.0 at NBER Peak)
Nonfarm Business Sector: Hours Worked
1.05
1.10
1.05
1.10
1.00 1.00
yc e
0.95 0.95
1973 Cycle
0.90 0.90
Current Cycle
0.80
.
0.80
.
- -
Quarters Since NBER Peak
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics15
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6 6
Total and Core CPI% Change - Year to Year % Change - Year to Year
5 5Total CPI
3
4
3
4
2 2
0
1
0
1ore
-1 -1
-
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics16Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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6-Month % Change - Annualized
Exports and Industrial Production6-Month % Change - Annualized
20
30
10
15
Exports (left axis)
10
0
5
-10
0
-5Industrial Production:
Manufacturing
-20-15
-10
-
-30
-
-20
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source: Federal ReserveBoard and Census Bureau
17Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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Net Worth over Disposable Personal Income
Percent Percent700 700
600 600
Net Worth/DPI
550 550
500 500
450 450
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Federal Reserve Board18Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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30 30
Percent Percent
Household Liabilities as a Percent of Net Worth
25 25
20 20
verage overlast 10 years
15 15
10
1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
10
Source: Federal Reserve Board19Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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MBA Purchase Mortgage Applications and ExistingHome SalesIndex Thousands
500 8000
Purchase LoanApplications
400
7000
350 6000
300
5000
Existing HomeSales (right axis)
250
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association,National Association of Realtors
20
Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical linerepresents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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3.5 12
Percent PercentVacancy Rates
3.0
2.5
10
Rental Vacancy Rate(right axis)
2.0 8
1.5
6Homeowner Vacancy
1.0 Rate (left axis)
0.5
1970 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006
4
Source: Census Bureau21Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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Total Receipts of State and Local Governments% Change Year to Year % Change Year to Year
20
30
20
30
10 10
Grants
urren
Receipts
0 0
-10 -10ReceiptsLessGrants
-20 -20
-30
1985 1991 1997 2003 2009
-30
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis22Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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30 30
2-qtr % Change - Annualized 2-qtr % Change - Annualized
Real Imports and Exports
20 20
10 10
Imports xpor s
0 0
-10 -10
-20 -20
-30
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
-30
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis23Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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0.14 0.14
Ratio Ratio
Corporate Profits as a Fraction of National Income
0.12 0.12
0.10 0.10
0.08 0.08
0.06
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0.06
Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisNote: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.24
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0.12 0.12
Ratio Ratio
Corporate Net Cash Flow as a Fraction of Nominal GDP
0.10 0.10
0.08 0.08
0.06
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0.06
Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisNote: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.25
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Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Percent Percent85 85
80 80
75 75
70 70
65 65
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Source: Federal Reserve BoardNote: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
26
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Rent Inflation% Change - Year to Year % Change - Year to Year
4.5
.
4.5
.
3.5
.
3.5
.
Tenant Rent (8%)
2.5
.
2.5
.
Owners'
1.5
.
1.5
.Equivalent Rent
(31%)
0.5
.
0.5
.
.
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics27
Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.Numbers in parentheses represent share of core CPI.
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1003Productivity, Compensation, and Unit Labor CostsNonfarm Business Sector
% Change - Year to Year% Change - Year to Year
8
10
8
10
6 6Compensation per Hour
2 2
-2
0
-2
0Output per Hour
-4 -4Unit Labor Costs
-6
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
-6
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics28Note: Shading represents NBER recessions, vertical line
represents 2007Q4 business cycle peak.
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TIPS Implied Inflation Compensation: 2-3, 4-5, 5-10Year HorizonsPercent Percent
3.5
.
3.5
.
5-10 Year
Mar 30:2.92
2.5
.
2.5
.
4-5 YearMar 30:
1.5
.
1.5
.
2-3 Year2.57
Mar 30:1.92
0.5
.
0.5
.
-0.5
.
-0.5
.
- .
Jun-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10
- .
Source: Federal Reserve Board Note: Carry Adjusted.29
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