dual cycle model of innovation and strategic foresight

DUAL CYCLE MODEL OF INNOVATION AND STRATEGIC FORESIGHT

Ben Flavel

= Good Luck!

(Attention + Intention) x Purpose

Opportunity

“To be a challenger once, it is enough to challenge the orthodoxies of the incumbents; to be a challenger twice, a firm must be capable of challenging its own orthodoxies.

To reinvent its industry a second time, a challenger must regenerate its core strategies.”

Gary Hamel – Competing for the future

THE DUAL CYCLE MODEL

6 THINGS GOOD ORGANISATIONS DO

1. CONDUCT SWOT ANALYSES

2. FOCUS ON CUSTOMER NEEDS3. INNOVATE AND IMPROVE BASED ON WHAT THEY KNOW

4. CHALLENGE THE WAY IT DOES THINGS5. IMPROVE INTERNAL PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS

6. INJECT THESE 5 BEHAVIORS INTO ITS CULTURE

If I had asked my customers what they wanted, they would have said a faster horse.

Henry Ford

QUICK QUIZ: WHICH OF THESE THREE COMPANIES APPLIES A DUAL CYCLE MENTALITY?

a. DELLb. HPc. APPLE

DOING NOTHING IS NOT AN OPTION!

WHAT GREAT ORGANISATIONS DO…

Great organisations…

• Develop a continuous ability to regenerate its own core strategies

• Re-invent entire industries• Are able to train the culture to

challenge internal and external assumptions

• Create a culture of foresight by challenging the competencies that made the organisation successful in the first place

2 CYCLES IN MOTION

3M BRAND ESSENCE

Official: Harnessing the chain reaction of new ideas

Unofficial:“habitually habitate the inhabitable”

TRANSFORMATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES CREATE NEW INDUSTRIES

E x is ti n g p ro d u c ts / T e c h n o lo g y

N e w p ro d u c ts / T e c h n o lo g y

E x is ti n gMa r k e ts

N e wMa r k e ts

AdjacentOpportunities

Exploit current assetsand capabilities

TransformationalOpportunities

Create new marketsand new products

Status QuoGrow market

share and profit(expansion, not new

business development)

AdjacentOpportunities

Increase primarymarket demand

We have an amazing ability to over-estimate what we can achieve in one year and yet under-estimate what we can achieve in ten.

Companies find it risky to think too far ahead. Ideas become “scary”.

Limiting futures thinking to what we can prove now, based on what has been, is truly dangerous.

THE PATHWAYS ARE NOT ALWAYS CLEAR

“Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one."

Voltaire

WHEN CERTAINTY BECOMES MADNESS…

DOES THE DUAL CYCLE MODEL EXIST IN OUR ORGANISATION?

How strong is our vision?

Do we know “what we do?”

“how else can we do what we do?”

Do we encourage questions? Do we challenge our core competencies?

Are we willing to change the way we do things?

Do we metascan? What happens when things fail?

Can we identify the entrepreneurs that will drive change?

It’s your path, so don’t fuck it up!

…but if you do, that’s OK too.