dsd-int 2015 - hydrological forecasting and decision making in australia - justin robinson
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Justin Robinson, Jeff Perkins and Bruce Quig
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia
The Bureau's Hydrological Forecasting Services
Seasonal Forecasts
7 Day Forecasts
Flood Warning Service
• The Seasonal Forecasting Service commenced in 2010
The 7 day forecasts commenced in August and was the first service
using forecasts provided by HyFS.
• The Bureau has been providing flood warnings for over 50 years.
HyFS will become fully operational in all forecasting centres this year.
Australian Flood Warning Service
Forecasting
Decision Making
Response
Bureau
Emergency Services
Community
• The flood forecasting service is a partnership across all
levels of government.
• Strong working relationships are essential.
• A great forecast is worth nothing if there is no response!
Flooding in Australia
Tasmania: Many small rivers and a large amount of hydro-power generation.
Great Dividing Range
East: Many small rivers flowing east to the sea.
West: Large river basins that flow west into the Murray–Darling Basin.
Western Australia: Many large river basins in the north, but sparsely populated.
Inland Australia: Little rainfall and rivers do not flow to the ocean.
Southwest WA: Large decrease in rainfall and little recent flooding.
Most of the Australian population lives along the east coast and is
flood-affected
Institutional Arrangements are Essential
• There are three levels of government in
Australia – National (Bureau), State and Local.
• The Bureau is actively engaged in
consolidating the institutional arrangements.
• The Australia - New Zealand Emergency
Management Committee (ANZEMC) provides
an agreed and clear allocation of roles
responsibilities.
• There are Flood Warning Consultative
Committees (FWCC) in each state.
• Roles are documented in National and State
Arrangements.
http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/
Roles and Responsibilities
• The Bureau is generally responsible for
the rain gauge network
• State and local government are generally
responsible for the river gauge network
• Bureau issues warnings and forecasts
river levels at key locations
• State Emergency Services and local
government interpret the forecasts and
ensure that the community responds
River gauges ~ 2600 (5 per cent Bureau)
Rain gauges ~ 4100 (50 per cent Bureau)
The Bureau's Flood Warning Services
• Primary products:
» Rainfall and river alerts
» Flood Watch
» Flood Scenarios
» Flood Warnings
» Flood data and information
• Products aimed to match user needs for
» Planning, Preparation, Response,
Recovery (PPRR)
» Predictions for rising limb, peak and
falling limb based on agreed flood
classifications
Effective Decision Making Requires Flood Intelligence
A great forecast is worth
nothing if we don't know what
actions to take
The collection of flood intelligence is a key
responsibility of the emergency
management organisations.
» What is the impact of forecast floods levels?
» What protective actions need to be taken?
» When and who needs to take action?
Flood intelligence is used to provide Flood Classifications
Minor: closes minor roads and low
level bridges
Moderate: inundation of low lying areas,
may require evacuations,
major bridges cut
Major: extensive rural inundation,
towns isolated,
urban areas flooded
Flood intelligence cards (NSW SES)
NSW SES 2015
• Links gauge heights to flood effects
and actions.
• The first flood intelligence cards were
developed in the 1970s & 80’s.
• First databases in 1990.
• Large data set derived from actual
floods… less from design (synthetic)
events.
An integrated flood intelligence system (Victoria)
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT LAND WATER AND PLANNING VICTORIA
Outcome of the Victorian Floods Review
(2011) was the development of an integrated
flood intelligence system – FloodZoom
» Flood Warnings and Forecasts
» Real Time Observations
» Flood Mapping
» Property Details
» Sharing information with other agencies
The user can fully interact with the available
flood intelligence and real time data and
forecasts.
Ensuring that agencies and the community take action
• Community readiness
• Warnings and forecasts that are clearly
communicated
• Supporting evidence from multiple sources
• Consistent messaging across all
organisations and communication channels
• Confidence in the Bureau's forecasts
• Requires strong personal and institutional
relationships between the Bureau and
response agencies
Community Readiness
The Bureau undertakes pre-season tours
to ensure that communities are ready.
Tours are undertaken in conjunction with
severe weather (cyclone season),
emergency services and local
government.
Personal engagement with stakeholders is
essential when the critical decisions need
to be made.
www.pfes.nt.gov.au/
www.dfes.wa.gov.au/safetyinformation/flood
Flood Watch • Provides a heads up for possible future
flooding. Usually 2-4 days notice.
• Based on rainfall forecasts and is
developed in close consultation
between the meteorologists,
hydrologists and emergency services.
• Very important service because it is
used by agencies to reallocate
resources and prepare for potential
flooding.
Flood Warnings
• The Bureau talks to the emergency
services – they need additional
context to take action on important
forecasts.
• Emergency Services add additional
safety advice and actions to be
undertaken when communicating to
the public.
• The SES communicate the
information at the local level to the
community effected.
Warning Entry Tool (WET)
• New tool for entering flood warnings
• Efficient and consistent production of
flood forecasts and warnings
• Encodes numerical forecasts (level,
time, type, likelihood) that can support
new forecasting products and
integrate with flood intelligence
systems like FloodZoom
• Integration with HyFS – the forecaster
can monitor issued forecasts in real
time
Web based services
• Plots, tables and maps of the
latest rainfall and river
information – updated at least
hourly
• Provides important context to
the flood warnings and
forecasts
Future Plans for Improving Web Services
Spatial warnings Making our knowledge available
Social Media - Twitter
• Can provide important contextual information that
cannot be included in the flood warning
• Important communication channel for the media
and public
Flood Forecasting Service Trajectory
Deterministic predictions
Best effort QPF from duty forecaster
Event-based riverine flood models
Peak predictions for point locations
Assistance with flash flood
Text based human readable products
Ensemble predictions showing uncertainty
Specialist QPF services utilising ensembles
Continuous flood and flow (7-10 days)
Full hydrograph forecasts
National Flash Flood Information Repository
Machine readable products integrated with
downstream decision support systems
Moving from To deliver
Next Gen Hydrological Forecasting System - HyFS
Stage 1 Requirements and Procurement (2012)
Stage 2 HyFS Functional System (2013)
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
HyDS National Data System (2013/14)
Model Migration and Integration (2014)
Operational Cutover (2015)
Stage 6 HyFS Metadata Management System
HyFS 2020 Service Harmonisation and Automation
T0
Business Drivers for HyFS
Efficient, robust and sustainable flood warning service
National system – with service delivery from regional and national offices
Meets operational best practice – high level of availability, ready for the COI
Better use of weather forecasting guidance – NexGen, ACCESS, ECMWF
Supports current forecasting techniques – URBS, SWIFT, Peak Heights,…
Realises benefits from investment in R&D – can evolve to utilise new advances
Supports collaboration – with forecasting agencies in Australia and overseas
What's Next – HyFS 2020 (2015-2020)
To build on HyFS to automate and harmonise manual services.
2016. Build the capability of HyFS to deliver products and services
2017. Automated Alerting
2018. Automated Flash Flood Guidance
2019. Automated Flood Scenarios
2020. Enterprise Archiving Solution for the Flood Warning Observation Data
Automated Alerting
Heavy rainfall
bulletin
River height
bulletin
Tasmania
river alerts
Twitter Like Alert Message ?
Automated Riverine Flash Flood Guidance
• Automated flash flood guidance
product.
• Would replace the current manual
riverine flash flood service in NSW
Flash Flood Threat Catchment Wetness Forecast Rainfall
• Extension of Automated Alerting?
• Continuous hydrological modelling?
• Short-Term Ensemble forecasts?
• Nowcasts?
Flood scenario product
Victorian Flood
Scenario Product
7 day forecast using NOAA's
Globe Ensemble Forecast
System (GEFS) rainfall forecasts.
• A service that may be driven by
ensemble rainfall forecasts?
• What additional contextual information do the
emergency service require to interpret these
forecasts?
Conclusions
Effective decision making requires strong institutional and personal relationships
between the forecasting and response agencies as well as the community.
The Bureau is responsible for forecasting while the state based emergency services are
responsible for deciding on the appropriate response.
Flood intelligence is critical in determining what actions needs be taken.
Forecasts and warnings need to be clearly communicated across multiple
communication channels together with contextual information and personal briefings
between the forecaster and the emergency response agencies.
HyFS is going to be fully operational by the end of the year. Plans are in place to
leverage off its capability to automate, harmonise and enhance our services.
Thank you
Any questions?
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