drought and climate services in arizonagmgarfin/2009.garfin.ams.intl.pdf · lake powell’s decline...
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Drought and Drought and Climate ServicesClimate Servicesin Arizona in Arizona in Arizona in Arizona
The Socio-Economic benefits of National Hydro-Meteorological Services:
Making a Business Case for Support
2009 NWS International Session – 89th AMS Annual Meeting January 9, 2009 ─ Phoenix, AZ, USA
Gregg Garfin, Director for Science Translation
Outreach
OPS
EducationCustomer Service
Product EvaluationContext Evaluation
VisualizationExperimental Products
M d liBasic Research
Applied Research
Observations, Data, Quality ControlModeling
The New Yorker Magazine, September, 1976 Artist: Saul Steinberg
HydroMeteorological
SERVICESSERVICESpartnerships
actionguidelines
planning economicstudies
enhanced visualization
one-stop websitestudies
ecas
ts interpretation
fore
Data, data, data!Decisionmaker Needs
Outreach
OPS
EducationCustomer Service
Product EvaluationContext Evaluation
VisualizationExperimental Products
M d liBasic Research
Applied Research
Observations, Data, Quality ControlModeling
SSeerrvviiiiccee Societyss
http://www.weddingchannel.com/
Fire-Climate Forecasts
20002000--20032003
New York Times
DiscussionDiscussionPresentationsPresentations
C F tC F tConsensus ForecastConsensus Forecast
EvaluationEvaluation20032003--20092009
EvaluationEvaluation
Seasonal Monthly
http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm
2000
2002Water HaulingWater Hauling,,Northern Arizona RockyNorthern Arizona Rocky2002 Northern Arizona Rocky Northern Arizona Rocky Mountain Elk FoundationMountain Elk Foundation
Lake Powell’s declineLake Powell’s declineJ. Dohrenwend, USGSJ. Dohrenwend, USGS
Southwest U.S. forest dieSouthwest U.S. forest die--offoffT. Degomez, UA Cooperative ExtensionT. Degomez, UA Cooperative Extension
20022002SoilSoil desiccationdesiccation
Arizona DailyArizona Daily StarStar
Arizona Drought Monitoring Arizona Drought Monitoring T h i l C ittT h i l C ittTechnical CommitteeTechnical Committee
Local DroughtI tImpactGroupsp(LDIGs)
•• 7 = established 7 = established •• 2 = initial meetings 2 = initial meetings •• 5 = near future5 = near future
Northwestern ArizonaNorthwestern Arizona
MA+CT+RIMA+CT+RIBelgiumBelgiumggTaiwanTaiwanLesothoLesothoP 50%P 50%Panama 50%Panama 50%
ButButBut…But…Elevation range: ~2,400 mElevation range: ~2,400 m
azdroughtwatch.orgazdroughtwatch.org
Train-up with agency professionals
Information InfrastructureInformation Infrastructure
Dynamic Drought Index Tool
http://drought.dnr.sc.gov
This is a Drought Information System
Increasing Awareness and Increasing Awareness and Building CapacityBuilding CapacityBuilding CapacityBuilding Capacity
User Needs and PrioritiesUser Needs and Priorities• Concerns
– Sustainability of long-term suppliesSustainability of long term supplies– Agricultural water allocations, frost
Fires insect disturbance invasive species– Fires, insect disturbance, invasive species• Needs and Priorities
M it ti t ET– Monitor consumptive water use – ET, crops– Monitor mountain snow and rain– Forecast monsoon onset, drought– Simple tools alternatives, growth
• Discussion Support
EvaluationEvaluation
• Degree of collaboration Q alit and rele ance of research and• Quality and relevance of research and decision support to stakeholders and researchersresearchers
• Perceived credibility and reliability• Evidence of impact or planning and decision
making (by users)
Miles et al., 2006 – Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Gregg GarfinClimate Assessment for the SouthwestInstitute for the Study of Planet Earthy
gmgarfin@email.arizona.edu520-622-9016520 622 9016
www.ispe.arizona.edu/climashttp://www climate noaa gov/cpo pa/risa/http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/
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