dr renate egan - solar analytics

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Document NamePREPARED BY: Your Name, Your TitleDATE: 6TH MARCH 2015

Developments in the Distributed Energy Industry

WA Power & Gas Conference, March 2017

Renate Egan

Co-founder, Chair, Solar Analytics

Chair, Australian PV Institute

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Solar Installs. Total Capacity and System Price

$12/W $9/W

$6/W

$3/W

$2.30/W

3www.apvi.org.au

APVI Solar Mapping Tools

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Annual Installations2016

• Lumpy utility scale solar with >1.0GW planned for 2017-2019

• Stable residential and commercial markets

• Residential remains the biggest market and expected to grow in 2017

• RET is the only incentive since 2013

www.apvi.org.au

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PV Market Statistics

end 2016• 5.9 GW capacity ,

• 8.4TWh (@1400MWh/MW)

• 3.3% demand

• 7th largest market (annual installs)• 10th largest (total installed)

• 2.4 Billion dollar/annum (2015)• >12 BAUD 2010 - 2015

• 8,300/yr direct employment (2015)• 12,400 total employment (2015)Internationally:

www.apvi.org.au

200610 MW

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Projections:in line with 50% renewable capacity by 2040 (BNEF); 30% solar capacity

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Leading the World in Residential Rooftop Solar

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National Average Over 20%

14 March 2017

WA 24.6%

680 MW, 576 MW<10kW

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47%LGA, Serpentine-Jarrahdale3076/642310.9 MW installed

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68%6171Baldivis3951/576511.1 MW installed

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Impact

West Australia

20 March 2017

South Australia

8 Feb 2017

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Australian Market

Unlike anywhere else in the world …Leading in residential, lagging in utility scale solar

• High penetration distributed generation

• Average 25% available households

• Over 60% in some areas (>5,000 homes)

• Isolated microgrids

• Diverse climate zones

• Engaged and informed market

• Lots of learning by doing

• Technology moving ahead of policy and regulation

• New markets, new services, new business opportunities

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So Much Generation… Behind the Meter

Data from 8,000 Ausgrid solar

energy systems shows that

approximately 51.8% are not

performing at capacity

‘Performance lessons from the

real world’, SunWiz 2012

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Solar Analytics - Solar Smart Monitoring

Works with ANY PV system -unlike most other monitoring offerings which are inverter or module specific

Provides an open architecture to promote integrated solutions

From 300 to 10,000 sales in 18 months

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Empower People to Navigate the Energy Transition

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We can tell if your

solar energy system

is working as expected

and if it’s not…

we can tell you what’s wrong

and what to do about it.

More Power to You

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Power in the Data

Fault

Detection

Tariff

Optimisation

Net and

Gross

metering

Retail

PlatformsBattery

Calculator

Energy

Trading

Fleet

Services

Data

Services

20182016 2017

PPA and

Leasing

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Fault Detection: Shading

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Site Specific Battery Estimator

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• Tens of batteries being monitored

• Significant growth expected 2017

Energy Storage

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Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence

1.5%

Customers with

positive return on

investment

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment

Powerwall 2 with basic charge

Optimised battery size

NEM trading

Weather and consumption forecasting

25% battery price reduction

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2.7xCustomers with

positive return on

investment

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment

Powerwall 2 with basic charge

Optimised battery size

NEM trading

Weather and consumption forecasting

25% battery price reduction

Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence

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2xCustomers with

positive return on

investment

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment

Powerwall 2 with basic charge

Optimised battery size

NEM trading

Weather and consumption forecasting

25% battery price reduction

Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence

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2.7x

Customers with

positive return on

investment

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment

Powerwall 2 with basic charge

Optimised battery size

NEM trading

Weather and consumption forecasting

25% battery price reduction

Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence

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2.4x

Customers with

positive return on

investment

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment

Powerwall 2 with basic charge

Optimised battery size

NEM trading

Weather and consumption forecasting

25% battery price reduction

Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence

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1.5%

4%

8%

21%

50%

Customers with

positive return on

investment

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%IRR on battery investment

Powerwall 2 with basic charge

Optimised battery size

NEM trading

Weather and consumption forecasting

25% battery price reduction

Improved Investment Return Through Intelligence

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Solar Analytics Monitoring Dashboard

from 300 to 10,000

in 18 months

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• Improve sales conversions

• Increase future sales

• Additional revenue opportunities

• Reduce costs

We give Solar Resellers lifetime profitable customers

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• Offer new unregulated energy services

• Increase customer engagement and retention

• Protect against disintermediation by 3rd parties

• Our hardware or your smart meter

Utilities gain the tools to retain the most active customers and offer new energy services

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Real Time Data

Measurements

• Energy – generated

• Energy – exported

• Power - real

• Power - reactive

• Power factor

• Power, min, max

• Frequency, min, max

• Voltage, min, max

• Current, min. max

Detailed Energy Insights

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Detailed Energy Insights

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Working with ARENA

22nd March 2017

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Solar Analytics

Fast, low-cost, simple monitoring solution

Live data

Compatible with any inverter and battery

Real-time solar production & energy consumption

Performance information

Fault diagnosis with actionable recommendations

Co-branded reports and notifications

PPA billing

Australian solar expertise

Local technical support team

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intelligent solar monitoring

renate@solaranalytics.com

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Key Market Statistics

2006 2016

PV capacity added10MW

2 MW grid, 8 MW off grid

780 MW

720 MW distributed; 60 power station, (tba)

off-grid

Cumulative

installed capacity

70 MW

60 MW grid, 9 off grid5,900 MW

Electricity

generated<0.05% 8,400 GWh (3.3%)

Typical residential

PV system price$12.50/Wp $2.20/Wp $1.40/Wp with STCs

Ave size of

residential PV

systems

1.2 kW 6.0kW

Number of Aus

homes with a PV

system

Over 1.6 million

Residential

penetration levels

Average 20 % (27% of suitable

dwellings);

Over 60% in some areas

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Projections:in line with 50% renewable capacity by 2040 (BNEF); 30% solar capacity