dr. ozcan saritas ozcan.saritas@manchester.ac.uk

Dr. Ozcan SaritasOzcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk

Innovation Foresight, Foresightful Innovation

2Dr. Ozcan Saritas

Printing, gunpowder and the compass have changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world... (Francis Bacon, 1620).

Improvements in machinery go hand in hand with the division of labor, and very pretty machines ... facilitate and quicken production... (Adam Smith, 1776).

The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the means of production! (Karl Marx, 1848).

Knowledge is the chief engine of progress in the economy (Alfred Marshall, 1897).

The entrepreneur and his search for new combinations is the driving force in all economic development... (Joseph Schumpeter, 1911).

Science and basic research are incredibly powerful sources of future economic and societal development... (Vannevar Bush, 1945).

Drivers of innovation

What future for nano?Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns

Trends

Environmental policies change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures – such as recycling requirements

Drivers of change

New global context &Challenges for

Innovation

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• Increased financial, trade and investment flows• Rapid and accelerating technological progress;

ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies• New international regulations and standards on

trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights

• New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services

• Global value chains and production networks

New innovation paradigm

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• Innovation paradigm has shifted from technology and markets to ecosystems of research and social networks, services and policy

• Linear model of innovation is outpaced. Focus on ‘integration and networking’

• Innovation as a dynamic ‘system’: It is multidisciplinary and technologically complex

• Global innovation landscape – with advances coming from centers of excellence around the world and the demands of billions of new consumers

• Relationship between technology and society: Social Shaping of Technology-Framework

• Necessity to diagnose the changing Innovation landscape to address these issues for ‘Foresightful Innovation’

Innovation Foresight (IF) for Foresightful Innovation

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IF draws on the systematic involvement of stakeholders from the early stages of a holistic innovation process by discovering future opportunities and risks and informing present-day decision-making, strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory.

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• Anticipation and projections of long-term developments

• Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis

• Forging new social networks

• Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment

• Implications for present-day decisions and actions

Essential elements of Innovation Foresight

Key requirements

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• Multi-context focus– Understanding real-life systems and natural settings– Long-term focus with intelligence gathering to explore

novel ideas and avoid shocks

• Inclusivity– Participation of all stakeholders on equal terms– Involvement troughout whole process

• Methodological support– Integration of best practices, methods and tools– Understanding the shortcomings of traditional user

research methods (plasticity)

Innovation Foresight

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• Fits in open, society-driven innovation paradigm• Facilitates future-oriented dialogue between the

relevant stakeholders in the systemic innovation process

• Enables collective visioning, mutual learning and networking and

• Yields long term strategic orientation, future innovation opportunities and research priorities

• Aims at greater inclusivity through SST-approach to Foresight

• Inclusive process draws on formal Foresight methods

Intelligence – Creates shared understanding and mutual

appreciation of issues at hand Imagination

– The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world

Integration– Analyses the alternative models of the future

and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future

Interpretation– Translates future visions into long-,

medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme

Intervention– Creates plans to inform present day decisions

for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations

Phases of Innovation Foresight

Intelligence

Imagination

IntegrationInterpretation

Intervention

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Scanning

PanelsWorkshops

Bibliometrics/ Data Mining

LiteratureReview

Interviews

SystemAnalysis

Trends/DriversIndicators

IntelligenceScanning for Intelligence gathering “The systematic examination of potential threats,

opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends” (DEFRA, 2002)

Selecting the main areas for intervention, the boundaries of the Foresight are drawn and the ‘content’ of Foresight is built with scanning

Scanning provides the basic input to the entire activity and involves analysis of Trends, Drivers of Change, Wild Cards / Shocks, Weak Signals and Discontinuities

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What kind of developments will occur? Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones

harmful? How soon may these developments occur? What might be the first signs that these developments are

happening? Where and how might the leading indications of impending

change be seen? Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications? What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by

these indications? Who needs to know about these impending changes?

Key questions for Intelligence gathering

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Social system

Technological system

Economic system

Ecological system

Political system

Values

Context, content & process of Foresight

[Reger, 2001]

Information sources

• Evidence-based Foresight & Policy: Using best evidence to make decisions about the future

• Fit between expertise, expectations and evidence

• Subjectivity of information

• Quality of data

Points to consider on the use of information

• EU-27, North America and Asia-Pacific are the core regions affected by most of the trends

• Environmental sustainability, alternative energy sources, increasing conflicts and enhancement of S&T are globally shared trends

• Equal opportunities, increased consumption, privacy and security concerns are connected largely to the Western world

• Ageing population is a concern in the EU and EU candidate countries and North America

World regions

Trends

BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions

• 2008-2015• Environmental and

sustainability concerns are shared by all

• Changing socio-economic patterns and environmental and sustainability concerns are tightly linked

• Financial crisis close to the core issues

BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions

T

• 2016-2025• The relationship

between environmental and sustainability concerns, alternative energy sources, and the role of S&T is emphasised by all

• Ageing population is a more shared concern

• Financial crisis becomes more peripheral for world regions

BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions

T

• 2025 - beyond• Climate change is

right at the centre and becomes appreciated by all world regions

• More emphasis on the scarcity of natural resources

• No mention of financial crisis, globalisation, and new diseases and pandemics

BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions

T

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Gaming

PanelsWorkshops

ScenarioPlanning

Wild CardWeak Signals

NetworkAnalysis

Modelling/ Simulation

Agent BasedModelling

Imagination

“Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein

Generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or concepts

Production of models to promote understanding of systems and situations within the limits of uncertainties

Modelling formalises thought experiments leads to the further development of Foresight process and presentation of the outcome

Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the Year 2000 (1899)

People of the year 2000, amazed at the sight of a horse. (French postcard circa 1910)

What of the Horse a Hundred Years Hence?

1-year Present

The time it takes planet earth to circle the sun onceCycle of seasonsUnit of time measurement for human livesFarming and crop rotation

10-year Present

Sizeable chunk of a human lifetimeLong enough to provide insight into dynamic processesIdeal for noting environmental and ecological factorsA reasonable horizon for testing new products and servicesThe time it takes to plan and build major infrastructure items

20-year Present

Cycle of generations for human beings: (Veterans, 1922-1943); (Baby Boomers, 1943-1960); (Generation Xs (1960-1980);The Nexters (1980-2000))Long enough to observe the economics and social impact of strategic R&D activities, e.g. the identification of CFCsscientifically and the sign of the international contract to take precautionary measures (1974-1990)

50-year PresentIncorporates some major concerns of a technologically advanced cultureCulturally significant period to understand trends and change processesEnough to judge the impacts and implications of existing and new technologies

100-year Present

Boundary of a single lifetimeLong cycles can be distinguishedThe rise and fall of regions, industries and ecosystemsTheories and history and futures begin to flourish

200-year Present

Ideal timeframe for cultures in transitionA time with which generations are linkedEnough to develop intergenerational biography and dialogueThe rise and fall of cultures, empires and entire ecosystemsMacro view of history; the panorama of the centuries

Understanding the time spans of change

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SWOTAnalysis

PanelsWorkshops

Multi CriteriaAnalysis

Cross ImpactAnalysis

Prioritisation/ Delphi

Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis

ScoringVoting/Rating

Integration Concerned with the systemic analysis of future

alternatives and building a vision

The analysis and selection of a desired system is multifaceted as there is a variety of worldviews and expectations to be negotiated.

For a system to be viable in the long term, the claims of different stakeholders must be considered adequately, and attention must be given to ethical and aesthetic aspects for the pursuit of ideals such as beauty, truth, good and plenty (Ackoff, 1981).

The end product of this phase is an agreed model of the future

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Backcasting

PanelsWorkshops

Road Mapping

RelevanceTrees

Logic Charts

StrategicPlanning

LinearProgramming

Interpretation Translates visions into strategies for a successful

change programme. Conditions for the successful transformation

strategies:- Assessment (e.g. processing information;

developing an understanding of the continuously changing context; and becoming an open learning system)

- Leadership (e.g. having a context-sensitive leadership; creating capabilities for change; and linking actions with resources)

- Linking strategic and operational change (e.g. supplying visions, values and directions)

- Management of human resources (e.g. demonstrating the need for change in people and behaviours)

- Coherence (e.g. adaptive response to environment; and maintaining competitive advantage)

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Priority Lists

PanelsWorkshops

ImpactAssessment

R&DPlanning

Critical/KeyTechnologies

OperationalPlanning

Action Planning

Intervention Any Foresight exercise has to inform policies and

actions.

Foresight suggests actions concerning immediate change actions to implement structural and behavioural transformations.

Actions for change are determined by considering the following capabilities of the system under investigation:- Adapting- Influencing and shaping its context- Finding a new milieu or modelling itself virtuously in

its context- Adding value to the viability and development of

wider wholes in which it is embedded

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Inte

racti

onInteraction

• Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ system– Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and

expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights

– Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation

– Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework

– Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources

• The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars: Governance, Socio-cultural evolution & Corporate industrial activity

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Science &Ecology

Technology& Economics

SocioeconomicsPolitics & Values

What is possible?

What is desirable?

What is feasible?

Systemic Foresight

Questions for Foresight

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InterventionInterpretationImaginationIntelligence Integration

Scanning

PanelsWorkshops

Inte

racti

on

Bibliometrics/ Data Mining

LiteratureReview

Interviews

SystemAnalysis

Trends/DriversIndicators

Priority Lists

PanelsWorkshops

ImpactAssessment

R&DPlanning

Critical/KeyTechnologies

OperationalPlanning

Action Planning

Gaming

PanelsWorkshops

ScenarioPlanning

Wild CardWeak Signals

NetworkAnalysis

Modelling/ Simulation

Agent BasedModelling

SWOTAnalysis

PanelsWorkshops

Multi CriteriaAnalysis

Cross ImpactAnalysis

Prioritisation/ Delphi

Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis

ScoringVoting/Rating

Backcasting

PanelsWorkshops

Road Mapping

RelevanceTrees

Logic Charts

StrategicPlanning

LinearProgramming

Putting all together: Innovation Foresight

Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk

Innovation Foresight

Intelligence

Imagination

IntegrationInterpretation

Intervention