dr. donald a. wilhite school of natural resources ... · nd ioc meeting, brasilia, october, 2012...
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HMNDP Leadership!
FAO
WMO
UNCCD
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
Steps to HMNDP • 16th Session WMO Congress, 2011• Expert Meeting, Compendium of Best Practices on
NDP, George Mason University, 2011• International Symposium on Integrated Drought
Information Systems, Casablanca, 2011• 1st IOC meeting, Geneva • Briefing session, Diplomatic Missions, April 2011• 2nd IOC meeting, Brasilia, October, 2012• Rio +20 Side Event, Rio de Janeiro, October 2012• Meeting with key sponsors to finalize program,
November, 2012
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
Presentation Outline• The ENIGMA OF DROUGHT — a sense
of urgency– Drought as hazard, characteristics, definition– Hydro-illogical Cycle/Crisis Management
• Our CHANGING CLIMATE—CHANGING VULNERABILITY
• Building SOCIETAL RESILIENCE – Drought monitoring, early warning and information systems– Vulnerability/risk/impact assessments– Mitigation and response measures
• Moving towards a POLICY FRAMEWORK that enhances preparedness and risk reduction– Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)– Compendium of best practices in support of NDP– Projected goals and outcomes of HMNDP:
Recommendations for Future Actions
The Enigma of Drought
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
Drought—as hazard• a normal part of climate.• occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.
Mexico City, Mexico
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Adelaide, Australia
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
Drought—as hazard
• a normal part of climate.• occurs in virtually all climatic regimes.• characteristics vary between regions.• definitions must be region and
application specific.• impacts are a good measure of
severity and an indicator of societal vulnerability or resilience.
Defining Drought
Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or
longer period of time (duration) . . . . .
Meteorological Drought
-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific
Prec
ipita
tion
Time (months, years)
Mean or Median
Rainfall deciles
Defining Drought
Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season or
longer period of time (duration) . . . . .
Meteorological Droughtand is insufficient to meet the demands of human
activities and the environment (impacts).Agricultural,
Hydrological andSocio-economic
Drought
-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific
Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought
RainfallDeficienciesHeat Stress
Meteorological
SoilsCropsRange
LivestockForests
AgriculturalWater SupplySnow DepthIrrigationRecreation
TourismHydropower
Hydrological
Socio-economic
Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts
Societal Impact
Drought Risk Reduction
Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)
Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management & policy
Time/Duration of the event
Drought compared to other natural hazards• slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”
– drought’s onset and end difficult to determine– commonality with climate change
Drought compared to other natural hazards • slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”
– drought onset and end difficult to determine– commonality with climate change
• absence of a universal definition• impacts are nonstructural and spread over
large areas• severity and impacts best defined by
multiple indices and indicators• impacts are complex, affect many people,
and vary on spatial and temporaltimescales, multiple and migrating epicenters
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle:An Institutional Challenge for Drought Management
Crisis Management
If you do what you’ve always
done, you’ll get what you’ve always got.
We MUSTadopt a new paradigm for
drought management!
Adapting to Changing ExtremesWMO
The previous two decades recorded highest number of national 24 hour
precipitation records
Highest number of broken National maximum T°records in 2001-2010
compared to the previous three decades
Lowest number of broken National minimum T° records in 2001-2010
compared to the previous four decades
(Source: WMO country data.
Fits with IPCC more hot days and more heat waves
Fewer cool nights
Intensification of heavy rainfall
Highest Max. Temp.
Lowest Min. Temp.
Highest 24h Precipitation
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10
Impacts of Global Climate Change:
Increased frequency of extreme weather events
Storms
Floods
Droughts
along with heat waves, snow storms, etc.
Managing for Climate Variability
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
The Climate Challenge for Drought Management
• Increasing mean temperature• High temp. stress and heat waves/longer
growing seasons• Increased evapotranspiration• Changes in precipitation amount,
distribution and intensity• Reduced soil moisture • Changes in groundwater recharge • Reduced runoff/stream flow resulting from
reduced snowpack/sublimation
Are droughts increasing in frequency, intensity and duration?
Drought impacts are more complex today as more
economic sectors are affected, creating more conflicts between
water users, i.e., societal vulnerability is dramatically
different and changing.• Agricultural production• Food security• Energy• Transportation• Tourism/Recreation• Forest/rangeland fires• Municipal water• Water quality/quantity• Environment • Ecosystem services• Health
Changes in Societal Vulnerability
Meteorological events(Storms, etc.)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Number
© 2013 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2013
100
200
300
400
500
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Natural Catastrophes Worldwide1980-2012
Number500
400
300
200
100
Source: Munich Re
Insured losses in 2012 US$: 970bn
Meteorological events(Storms, etc.)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(Extreme temp, drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
11%
72%
9%8%
Extreme weather events affect the core business of the insurance industry!
Natural Catastrophes Worldwide, 1980-2012
Distribution of insured losses to different perils
Source: Munich Re
Natural Disasters in the U.S.1980-2011 Number of Events, Annual Totals
Meteorological events(Storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
2011 Total171 Events
5
92
14
60
© 2011 Munich ReSource: MR NatCatSERVICE
31
Drought Disaster DesignationsOctober 10, 2012
$16 billion in crop insurance indemnitiesTotal drought impacts ~ $35-77 billion
Superstorm Sandy ~ $50 billion
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
Emergency response has a place in drought risk management, but it can also
lead to:• greater vulnerability/decreased
resilience to future drought events• increased reliance on government and
donor interventions.
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
Building Societal Resilience through National Drought Policies and Preparedness Plans: The Way Forward
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
EXPOSURE• Severity/Magnitude
- Intensity/Duration• Frequency• Spatial extent• Trends
- Historical- Future
• Impacts• Early warning
SOCIAL FACTORS• Population growth• Population shifts• Urbanization• Technology• Land use changes• Environmental
degradation• Water use trends• Government
policies• Environmental
awareness
RISK
The Cycle of Disaster Management
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.
Reducing Societal Vulnerability• Improve drought awareness• Develop/improve monitoring, early warning
and information delivery systems• Improve decision support tools• Complete risk assessments of vulnerable
sectors, population groups, regions• Improve understanding and quantification of
drought impacts vs. mitigation costs• Develop and implement drought
preparedness plans• Create national drought policies based on
the principles of risk reduction
Follow-on Actions—HMNDP • Integrated Drought Management
Programme (IDMP)– Global Water Partnership/WMO initiative
• Project—Capacity Development to support National Drought Management Policies (UN-Water, WMO, UNCCD), Bucharest, July 2013
• Soliciting donor support for HMNDP declaration recommendations
• Publication of key papers from HMNDP
IDMP Objectives• At global level, the IDMP will contribute to best
practices related to drought risk management through:– Better scientific understanding of, and inputs for, drought
management;– Improved knowledge base, with better access to
information and products;– Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction, and early
warning;– Policy and planning for drought preparedness and
mitigation across sectors; and– Drought risk reduction and response.
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
National Drought Policy Goals Proactive mitigation and planning
measures, risk management, public outreach and resource stewardship.
Greater collaboration to enhance the national / regional / global observation networks and information delivery systems to improve public understanding of, and preparedness for, drought.
Incorporation of comprehensive governmental and private insurance and financial strategies into drought preparedness plans.
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
National Drought Policy Goals Recognition of a safety net of emergency
relief based on sound stewardship of natural resources and self-help at diverse governance levels. Coordination of drought programmes
and response in an effective, efficient and customer-oriented manner.
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
Resources Available• Expert meeting to develop a
compendium of best practices on national drought policy– Promoting standard approaches
to Vulnerability and Impact Assessments
– Implementing effective Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems
– Enhancing Preparedness and Mitigation Actions
– Implementing Emergency Response and Relief measures that reinforce National Drought Policy
– Understanding the Cost of Inaction.
School of Natural ResourcesApplied Climate Sciences
HMNDP Plenary Sessions• Drought monitoring, early warning and
information systems• Drought prediction and predictability• Drought vulnerability and impact
assessment• Enhancing drought preparedness and
mitigation• Planning for appropriate response and relief
within the framework of National Drought Policy
• Constructing a framework for National Drought Policy: The way forward
Takeaway Messages• Climate is changing—climate state and
climate variability.• Extreme climate events are increasing in
frequency globally, managing impacts critically important.
• Time is NOW to change the paradigm from crisis to drought risk management.
• Time is NOW for all drought-prone nations to adopt appropriate drought policies that will reduce the impacts of future drought episodes through risk-based management.
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