dr carl o’brien acom (advisory committee) vice-chair ices (international council for the...
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Dr Carl O’Brien
ACOM (Advisory Committee) Vice-chair
ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea)
State of Fish Stocks in European State of Fish Stocks in European WatersWaters
2626thth September 2012 September 2012
Centre de Conférences Albert Borschette,Centre de Conférences Albert Borschette,
Brussels, BelgiumBrussels, Belgium
Content of presentation
OVERVIEW OF NORTHEAST ATLANTIC STOCKS
•Summarise the biological status of the main stocks of interest for EU fisheries
•New procedures for assessing and managing stocks with incomplete data will be explained
1. Iceland & East Greenland
2. Barents Sea & Norwegian Sea
3. Faroe Plateau4. North Sea5. Celtic Sea & West of
Scotland6. Bay of Biscay &
Atlantic Iberian Waters7. Baltic Sea
Widely distributed stocks EcoregionsEU stocks
ICES’ advice
State of stocks: MSY (all ecoregions)
General trends in the Northeast Atlantic
ICES (2011). Report of the ICES Advisory Committee. Book 1, 226pp.
2010: 33 of assessed stocks2011: 35 of assessed stocks2012: tbd
• 2010:– 78 individual fish stocks– Quantitative advice for 10 data-limited stocks
• Majority of the data-limited stocks have more information available than merely either catch or landings.
• 2012:– 185 individual fish stocks– Quantitative advice for 68 data-limited stocks
New approach intends to aid policy-makers move towards sustainable exploitation of fisheries
81%(68 out of 84)
Advice and expert groups (Jan. to Sept. 2012)
Number of stocks for which
advice is requestedNumber of special requests
General Advice
9 fisheries related requests
5 environment related requests
4 ecosystem related requests
Iceland and East Greenland 20 stocks
Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea 9 stocks
Faroe Plateau Ecosystem 12 stocks
Celtic Sea and West of Scotland 48 stocks 1 special fisheries related request
North Sea 34 stocks 1 special fisheries related request
Bay of Biscay and Atlantic Iberian
Waters23 stocks
Baltic Sea 15 stocks 1 special fisheries related request
Widely Distributed and Migratory
Stocks21 stocks 3 special fisheries related requests
North Atlantic Salmon 3 stocks
• Landings:– Mis-reporting (area / species)– Insufficient or unrepresentative biological sampling
coverage– No reporting
• Discards:– No reporting– Insufficient observer coverage and coverage bias
• Effort:– Non-availability– Poor linkage to fishing practice / métier– Poor comparability
It was not possible to include Spanish commercial data for 2011.
Catch options and advice for 2013: based on the 2011 assessment.
Data quality issues
• Stock surveys (e.g. coverage, design and consistency in time)• Biological data (Bias / errors in measurements of age and maturity;
uncertain stock identity)
Email 25th September 2012 13:01
Spanish national authorities are investigating a pragmatic solution to provide the best estimate of catches … unallocated catches …
=> Assess stock size and provide management advice
Same principles, concept and framework:
Maximize average long-term yield (setting FMSY)
Safeguard against low SSB (setting MSY Btrigger)
MSY Btrigger
FMSY
SSB2013
more caution needed
ICES MSY Harvest Control Rule (HCR)
ICES’ MSY
Transition to MSY HCR by 2015
FMSY-HCR transition 2013 = 0.4 F(2010) + 0.6 FMSY-HCR
Moving from F2010 to FMSY-HCR in 2015 in 5 steps
FMSY-HCR transition 2014 = 0.2 F(2010) + 0.8 FMSY-HCR
FMSY-HCR transition 2015 = 0.0 F(2010) + 1.0 FMSY-HCR = FMSY-HCR
(values of advised F capped at Fpa for consistency with PA)
ICES’ MSY ... continued
Quantitative assessments and outlook tables with catch options for
2013 are not always available!
New approach this year for data-lim
ited stocks to provide
quantitative advice … previously qualita
tive advice … do not
increase … reduce catch
Activity in 2012 - Enormous scientific / advisory effort!
WKLIFE (February), RGLIFE (May); development by Cefas, ACOM Leadership, ICES’ Secretariat and ICES’ community
Three basic principles:1) Available information should be used.2) Advice for DLS should, to the extent possible, follow the same principles as for data-rich stocks; i.e. aiming towards exploitation consistent with MSY.3)The less data available, the more precaution should be taken when establishing limits for fishing opportunities.
Data-limited stocks (DLS)
• Categorisation of stocks (6 categories) from data-rich towards situations of decreasing information.
• Methods proposed for different categories – further developments, simulation testing ... on-going
Common DLS situations:• stock abundance index and F relative to FMSY-proxy
(plaice in VIId) • stock abundance index available
(megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd) (anglerfish …)• F in relation to FMSY-proxy available (sole VIIh-k)• time-series available of landings only
(sole VIIbc) (whiting IIIa)
Data-limited stocks (DLS) ... continued
Advice starts from recent catch (for most stocks, average landings of last 3 years) and modifies it as follows:
•If stock abundance index available: modify according to index trend in last 5 years (Average last 2 years)/(Average 3 previous years)
•If current F relative to FMSY-proxy known: modify according to change required in current F to reach FMSY-proxy (could be in steps until 2015)
•If time series available of landings only: no modification (but precautionary margin always applied)
Data-limited stocks (DLS) ... continued
After appropriate DLS method has been applied, two subsequent sequential steps:
1. Uncertainty window: limit result to 20% change (increase or decrease) (because results more noisy than with standard stock assessments)
2. Precautionary margin: 20% reduction if stock status relative to (candidate) reference points unknown, unless there is evidence that stock is strongly increasing or that exploitation (F or effort) has decreased substantially
Data-limited stocks (DLS) ... continued
• Advice applicable to time-frame compatible with measurable response in metrics used as basis for advice
• The less data available, the more precaution should be taken when establishing limits for fishing opportunities, and when precautionary margin applied:
no expected change in advice for a number of years (e.g. 3 years tbd) unless important new knowledge emerges
Data-limited stocks (DLS) ... continued
North Sea autumn spawners – NSASEU/Norway MP
Western Baltic spring spawners – WBSSMSY
Herring stocks – NS, CS & WoS
Herring stocks – NS, CS & WoS ... cont.
NSAS
WBSS
IS
Ce
ltic
Se
a a
nd
S Ir
ela
nd
VIa (s
ou
th) a
nd
VIIb
,c
VIa (north)
Celtic Sea &
West, Southwest Ireland• Cod (VIIe-k) • Haddock (VIIb-k)• Whiting (VIIe-k)• Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)• Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)• Northern hake• Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIabd)• Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd)• Nephrops (FUs 16-17-20-22)
English Channel• Cod (IV, VIId, Skagerrak)• Plaice (VIId)• Plaice (VIIe)• Sole (VIId)• Sole (VIIe)
West of Scotland & Rockall (VIab)
• Cod (VIa; VIb)• Haddock (VIa; VIb)• Whiting (VIa; VIb)• Anglerfish (IIIa,IV,VI)• Megrim (IVa-VIa; VIb)• Nephrops (FUs11-12-
13)
Irish Sea (VIIa)• Cod• Haddock• Whiting• Plaice• Sole• Nephrops (FUs 14-15-19)
Other stocks – Channel, CS & WoS
Stock FMSY MSY Btrigger Advice last year Advice this year
Plaice SW Ireland 0.24 nd reduce catch< 100 t;
reduce bycatch and discards
Plaice W Ireland nd nd no increase in catch < 30 t
Plaice Celtic Sea nd ndreduce catch;
technical measures< 360 t; technical measures
to reduce discard rates
Plaice Irish Sea nd ndno increase in catch;
tech measures< 490 t
Plaice W Channel 0.24 1 650 t < 1440 t < 2 100 t
Plaice E Channel 0.23 nd no increase in catch < 4 300 t; reduce discards
Stock FMSY MSY Btrigger Advice last year Advice this year
Sole SW Ireland 0.31 nd no increase in catch< 200 t; take into account
advice for plaice
Sole W Ireland nd nd no increase in catch < 30 t
Sole Celtic Sea 0.31 2 200 t < 1 060 t < 1 100 t
Sole Irish Sea 0.16 3 100 t < 200 tno directed fisheries;
minimise bycatch, discards
Sole W Channel 0.27 2 800 t < 740 t < 960 t
Sole E Channel 0.29 8 000 t < 5 600 t < 5 900 t
Overview by species / stocks: flatfish
Stock FMSY MSY Btrigger Advice last year Advice this year
Hake – Northern 0.24 nd < 51 900 t < 45 400 t
Angler VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd reduce catch < 24 800 t
Angler IIIa, IV, VI nd nd reduce catch reduce by 20%
Megrim IVa, VIa 0.29 9 700 t no increase in catch < 4 700 t
Megrim Rockall nd nd no increase in catch < 160 t
Megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd reduce catch < 12 000 t
Pollack VI, VII nd nd no increase < 4 200 t
Overview by species / stocks
Advice for 2013, MSY transition: Landings < 45 400 tF (Fishing Mortality)
2009 2010 2011
MSY (FMSY) Not available
Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Not available
SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 2010 2011 2012
MSY (Btrigger) Not available
Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Not available
Qualitative evaluation
Above poss. reference points
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Land
ings
in 1
000
tonn
es
Landings
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
F (15
-80c
m)
Fishing Mortality FMSY
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Recr
uitm
ent i
n m
illio
ns
Recruitment (age 0)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
SSB
in 1
000
tonn
es
Spawning Stock Biomass
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
2040
6080
100
120
140
F(15-80 cm)
SS
B in
100
0t
FMSY
2010
* No assessment in 2012, last year’s assessment * Strong year-class in 2007 and 2008, but weak in 2009 and 2010
* Very strong increase in SSB and decrease in F
* Rapid growth and fast dynamics
Hake – Northern stock
Landings 2010 – 73 000 t (discards ~6 700 t)No stock landings or discards in 2011 (Spanish data not available)
Discards included in assessment but incomplete and high uncertainty
Short-term forecast in terms of catch split into landings and discards
F (2011) and F (2012) = F(2008-2010) = 0.42; landings (2011) = 77.4, landings (2012) = 63.2; SSB (2013) = 114 kt
RationaleHuman
consump. landings (2013)
BasisF Total (2013)
F HC (2013)
F Disc (2013)
Disc.(2013)
Catch Total (2013)
SSB (2014)%SSB change
1)
%TAC change2)
MSY framework 37.2FMSY
(Fsq*0.57)0.24 0.20 0.04 1.7 39.0 141.9 +24% −32%
MSY transition 45.40.4*F2010+0.6*FMSY
(Fsq*0.71)0.30 0.26 0.04 2.1 47.6 133.4 +17% −18%
Recovery Plan46.8 −15% TAC
(Fsq*0.75)
0.31 0.27 0.05 2.2 49.0 132.0 +16% −15%
Other options 55.1Equal TAC
(Fsq*0.91)0.38 0.32 0.06 2.7 57.8 123.3 +8% 0%
59.9 Fsq *1 0.42 0.36 0.06 2.9 62.8 118.4 +4% +9%
63.3+15% TAC
(Fsq*1.08)0.454 0.39 0.07 3.1 66.4 114.7 0% +15%
68.9 Fsq *1.2 0.51 0.43 0.07 3.4 72.3 108.9 −5% +25%
35% of projected landings in 2013 from assumed recruitment (2011-2013)
Hake – Northern stock ... continued
Advice 2013, DLS: Reduce catch by 20% in relation to last 3 years average. Due to uncertainty in landings data, ICES cannot quantify resulting catch. Dedicated anglerfish surveys in Division IVa and
Subarea VI indicate decline since 2008:
(Average last 2 years) 20% lower than (average previous 3 years) 20% catch decrease with respect to recent average (last 3 year average)
1.Uncertainy window: 20% decrease2.Precautionary margin: no because significant effort decrease in main fisheries
F (Fishing Mortality)
2009–2011
MSY (FMSY) Unknown
Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Unknown
SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)
2007–2011
MSY (Btrigger) Unknown
Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Unknown
Qualitative evaluation Decreasing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Lan
din
gs in
100
0 t
Landings
2006 2008 2010
01
02
03
04
0
Ab
un
da
nc
e (m
illio
ns
)
2006 2008 2010
01
02
03
04
05
06
0
Bio
ma
ss
('0
00
to
nn
es
)
Northern shelf (partial)
Area IV (partial)
Area VIa
AreaVIb
AreaVI
Anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius & L. budegassa) in Division IIIa and Subareas IV and VI
East-Greenland
Iceland
Faroe-plateau
Faroe-bank
Rockall
West Scotland
Irish Sea
VIIe-k
NE Arctic
Norwegian Coastal
North Sea +
Kattegat
Western Baltic
Eastern Baltic
Cod stocks – Northeast Atlantic
Advice for 2013, EU/Norway MP: Landings < 25 441 t
F (Fishing Mortality) 2009 2010 2011
MSY (FMSY) Above target
Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Harvested sustainably
Management plan (FMP) Above target
SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)
2010 2011 2012
MSY (Btrigger) Below trigger
Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Reduced reproductive capacity
Management plan (SSBMP) Below trigger
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.0 0.5 1.0
SSB
in 1
000
t
Fishing Mortality (ages 2-4)
2011
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
F (a
ges
2-4
)
Fishing MortalityFmsyFpaFlim
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Re
cru
itm
en
t in
mill
ion
s
Recruitment (age 1)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
SS
B in
10
00
t
Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa
MSY Btrigger
Blim
0
100
200
300
400
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Land
ings
in 1
000
t
Total removalsUnallocated
Discards
Landings
* Gradual improvement in last years, but still poor stock status * F well above FMSY
* SSB just below Blim
* All year-classes since 1997 very low
* Proportion discarded in recent years higher than in past
Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West
Total removals 2011 – 67 kt: landings (35kt), discards (12kt), unallocated (20kt)Catch = landings + discards = 47 kt
Main sources of uncertainty: unallocated removals and assumptions for F(2012)
Short-term forecast in terms of catch split into landings, discards and unallocated
F (2012) reduction according to MP; SSB(2012) = 65 kt ( < Blim) MP F(2013) = 0.35 x F(2008) = 0.22, subject to 20% TAC constraint
Rationale Landings1) Basis Ftotal Fland Fdisc Funal2) Disc Unal2) SSB %SSB3) %TAC4)
(2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2014) Change Change
Management Plan
25.441 TAC constraint 0.26 0.15 0.06 0.05 6.5 8.6 107 +37% −20%
Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West
F (2012) reduction according to observed trend in F during 2006-10; SSB(2013) < MSY B trigger
Rationale Landings1) Basis Ftotal Fland Fdisc Funal2) Disc Unal2) SSB %SSB3) %TAC4)
(2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2013) (2014) Change Change
Management Plan
25.441 TAC constraint 0.27 0.16 0.06 0.06 6.6 8.6 103 +36% -20%
MSY framework 10FMSY*
SSB2013/Btrigger
0.10 0.06 0.02 0.02 2.5 3.4 123 +63% -69%
MSY transition 28 Transition rule 0.29 0.17 0.06 0.06 7.2 9.4 101 +33% -13%
Zero catch 0 F=0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.0 136 +80% -100%
Other options 19 FMSY 0.19 0.11 0.04 0.04 4.9 6.4 112 +47% -41%
25.441 TAC2012−20% 0.27 0.16 0.06 0.06 6.6 8.6 103 +36% -20%
38.161 TAC2012+20% 0.43 0.25 0.09 0.09 10.2 13.0 87 +15% +20%
43 F2012 0.50 0.29 0.10 0.11 11.7 14.8 81 +7% +36%
43 Landings 2012 0.49 0.28 0.10 0.10 11.5 14.6 82 +8% +34%Mixed fisheries options – minor differences with calculation above can occur due to different methodology used (ICES, 2012b)
Maximum 49 A 0.77 NA NA NA NA NA 50 -34 % +55 %
Minimum 25 B 0.25 NA NA NA NA NA 114 51 % -20 %
Cod MP 25 C 0.29 NA NA NA NA NA 95 +25 % -20 %
SQ effort 42 D 0.55 NA NA NA NA NA 68 -10% +33 %
Effort_Mgt 30 E 0.32 NA NA NA NA NA 96 +26 % -6 %
Mixed fisheries options presented in advice for first time: TAC for cod is the limiting one in the North Sea
Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West
In 2012, for the North Sea, ICES presents for the first time in its advice:
an analysis of the implications of mixed fisheries under current TAC and effort regimes
•Catch advice for each stock on a single stock basis (based on MP, MSY framework or PA)
•Are the TACs corresponding to this advice in agreement with each other in mixed fisheries context?
•Or are TACs for some species likely to be exhausted much sooner than for others? (in which case, some species will be caught above or below the TAC)
Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks
Analysis assumes:•same fleet behaviour in 2012 and 2013 as in 2011 (same fishing pattern and catchability)
Five example mixed fisheries scenarios explored:min: fleets stop fishing when their first quota exhaustedmax: fleets stop fishing when their last quota exhaustedcod: fleets stop fishing when their cod quota exhaustedStatus quo effort: effort (E) equal to most recent yearEffort management: E reduced according to regulations
min and max not realistic, but provide boundaries
Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks ... continued
Scenario: Maximum Minimum Cod Status Quo Effort Effort Mgt
Stocks
Single-stock advice 2013
Saithe Plaice
Haddock
Whiting Cod
Nephrops, Sole
Predicted landings for 2013, per stock and per scenario TAC overshoot (hatched) and undershoot (below zero)
Individual stock objectives cannot all be achieved simultaneously
In 2013, the TAC (advice) for cod is the most limiting
Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks ... continued
Single-stock
Advice
SSB resulting from mixed-fisheries scenario 2014
Stock SSB result in 2014
‘Max’ ‘Min’ ‘Cod’ ‘SQ_E’ ‘Eff_mgt’
Cod 103 50 114 95 68 96 Haddock 203 145 231 207 175 217 Plaice 666 575 785 724 639 716 Saithe 252 200 316 286 236 261 Sole 49 42 60 56 47 52 Whiting 346 346 376 370 357 374 legend SSB 2014 > Bpa or MSY Btrigger SSB 2014 > Blim SSB 2014 < Blim
No reference points defined
SSB in 2014 according to single-stock advice and mixed-fisheries scenarios:
Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks ... continued
Fleets will change behaviour in response to their catch possibilities for different species – but difficult to predict
Full value of mixed fisheries models will be realized with input from managers and stakeholders on trade-offs between different species in catch; e.g.
•scenarios that take into account value of different species or other aspects influencing fleets’ behaviour
•scenarios that consider changes in fleets’ selectivities
•incorporation of mixed-fishery effects in LTMP
Mixed fisheries scenarios for North Sea stocks ... continued
Biological interactions occur between fish from a population, across populations and with other components of the marine ecosystem.
Some aspects incorporated in ICES’ single-stock advice (e.g. natural mortality values that reflect history of predator populations) – but more progress is required
Density-dependent effects imply that all the expected increases in stock abundance based on an MSY approach on an individual stock basis are unlikely to occur simultaneously
Multi-species considerations
Response of the stocks to changes in fishing pressure will also be affected by biological interactions
In most regions, reliable predictive models accounting for the effect of biological interactions on stocks’ response do not exist at present. If that continues to be the case, a stock-by-stock MSY approach will be used based on the observed response of the stocks once they have been fished at FMSY
When reliable predictive models are developed: multispecies fishing strategies to be developed to achieve MSY on multispecies basis - requires evaluating trade-offs based on managers’ and stakeholders’ preferences
Multi-species considerations ... continued
In the 2012 advice, ICES presents an illustration concerning multi-species management for cod, herring and sprat fisheries in the Baltic:
•At this stage, work is illustrative•Meant as starting point for dialogue•Need to agree on objectives and risk tolerance•Will need a transition period•Focuses on most obvious interactions between cod, sprat and herring. Not a full ecosystem or food-web model
ICES will pursue further development of multi-species work with a view to integrate it into advice when ready
Multi-species considerations ... continued
• For cod, sprat and herring in the Central Baltic Sea it could be possible:– to increase the sum of the sustainable yield of the 3
species combined in tonnes– to improve the growth of individual fish of the 3
species
• However,– cod yields will remain about the same– the probability of low cod SSB will increase
• Results assume full spatial overlap– Spatial overlap currently limited, cod in 25, sprat
and herring in 28-29 and 32
Multi-species considerations ... continued
Advice for 2013 and 2014, DLS: Catch < 4 700 tF (Fishing Mortality)
2009–2011
MSY (FMSY) Unknown
Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Unknown
Qualitative evaluation Above poss ref points
SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)
2009–2011
MSY (Btrigger) Unknown
Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Unknown Increas
Qualitative evaluation Above poss ref points
Total landings
Biomass index Tally book -Subarea VI
Biomass index Standardized cpue
* Landings and CPUE data from start of fishery
* CPUE from tally book in VI, considered the most reliable biomass index
* Growth faster than for other deep-water species
* Mixed trawl fisheries with roundnose grenadier and blue ling
* Trend in last 5 years: 20% increase* Precautionary margin: no because exploitation notdetrimental to stock
Black scabbardfish in Subareas VI, VII and Divisions Vb and XIIb
Advice for 2013 and 2014: No directed fisheries; reduce by-catch.
Catches well below historic levels, indicating depletion. No indication of recovery
* Red seabream: low productivity * By-catch in longline, gillnet and trawl fisheries; no catch data on recreational fisheries
F (Fishing Mortality)
2009–2011
MSY (FMSY) Unknown
Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Unknown
Qualitative evaluation Unknown
SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)
2009–2011
MSY (Btrigger) Unknown
Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Unknown
Qualitative evaluation likely to be below Btrigger and Blim
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011*
La
nd
ing
s (
t)
Red seabream in Subareas VI, VII and VIII
Digest of official advice
Brief information on fish stocks 2012:
popular versionpopular version
http://www.ices.dk/http://www.ices.dk/products/products/
BriefInformation.aspBriefInformation.asp
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