don’t believe the national headlines… 4.2% “the housing market was socked by bad news for the...
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Don’t believe the national headlines…
4.2%
““The housing market was socked by bad The housing market was socked by bad news for the third consecutive day…”news for the third consecutive day…”
Wichita remains an island of calm
Economic Overview
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics;Kansas Department of Human Resources
Employment Growth
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Pe
rce
nt
U.S.
Wichita
Existing Homes
Source: WSU Center for Real Estate using data from SCK MLS
Typical Time to Sell a Home
30
35
40
45
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Da
ys
on
Ma
rke
t
Existing Homes
Sources: National Association of Realtors®;WSU Center for Real Estate using data from SCK MLS
Inventory of Existing Homes Available for Sale
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mo
nth
s S
up
ply
U.S.
Wichita
Existing Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
6,183
6,7787,076
6,478
6,039
6,3768,407
8,842
9,867
10,20610,482
10,662
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
U.S
. Sa
les
in T
ho
us
an
ds
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
Wic
hit
a S
ale
s
U.S.
Wichita
Sources: SCKMLS; NAR; WSU Center for Real Estate
Existing Homes
Sources: National Association of Realtors®;South Central Kansas MLS; WSU Center for Real Estate
New Homes & Construction
Sources: National Association of Realtors®;WSU Center for Real Estate using data from SCK MLS
Inventory of New Homes Available for Sale
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mo
nth
s S
up
ply
U.S.
Wichita
Existing Home Sales
New Home Construction
1,499
1,611
1,716
1,465
1,1281,070
2,7022,653
2,683
2,5152,461
2,620
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
U.S
. Ho
us
ing
Sta
rts
in T
ho
us
an
ds
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
Wic
hit
a S
F B
uild
ing
Pe
rmit
s
U.S.
Wichita
Sources: SCKMLS; NAR; WSU Center for Real EstateSources: U.S. Census Bureau; Wichita Area Builders
Association; WSU Center for Real Estate
New Homes & Construction
New Home Sales
1,086
1,203
1,283
1,051
852 848
1,830
1,898
2,0692,101
1,898
1,997
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
U.S
. Sa
les
in T
ho
us
an
ds
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
Wic
hit
a S
ale
s
U.S.
Wichita
Sources: SCKMLS; NAR; WSU Center for Real EstateSources: National Association of Realtors®;
South Central Kansas MLS; WSU Center for Real Estate
New Homes & Construction
Sources: SCKMLS; NAR; WSU Center for Real EstateSource: WSU Center for Real Estate using data provided by
the Sedgwick County Appraiser’s Office
Home PricesSedgwick County Home Price Appreciation
1.8
3.8
4.4
3.8
4.4
0
2
4
6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pe
rce
nt
Some Facts about the “National” Housing Market• No one owns the “average” U.S. home• Home prices are actually rising in most
markets• Other than two problem areas,
foreclosures are down across the U.S.– Rust belt– Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada
• Recent problems in the financial markets are not a “mortgage market meltdown”
Mortgages & Foreclosures
Sources: Freddie Mac; Mortgage Bankers Association of America
Mortgage Rates
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Pe
rce
nt
30-year FRM15-year FRM1-year ARMMBAA Forecast
Mortgages & Foreclosures
Source: WSU Center for Real Estate using data fromSedgwick County Register of Deeds
Sedgwick County Foreclosure Rate
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Fo
rec
los
ure
s p
er
1,0
00
Mtg
s
2007 2008
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Home Price Appreciation 3.83 3.82 4.09 4.49 4.51 4.45
Existing Home Sales 2,964 2,463 2,141 2,992 3,032 2,497
New Home Sales 514 486 425 533 545 494
Building Permits 635 612 614 734 662 609
Forecast Summary
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