do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?
Post on 19-Dec-2015
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Do you know what it takes to manage
global change wisely?
?!
EARTH System
Analysis
Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?!
[…] there is no previous analogue for the current operation of the Earth System […]
Modus Operandi
terrestrial ecosystems
marine ecosystems
human dimensions
atmosphere
terrestrial ecosystems
marine ecosystems
human dimensions
atmosphere
terrestrial ecosystems
marine ecosystems
human dimensions
atmosphere
terrestrial ecosystems
marine ecosystems
human dimensions
atmosphere
Do we know how good old earth is working now?
E S ATo complex for a single mind, a single
discipline, a single nation, a single interest.
Thus…
…inter-disciplinary
…inter-nationational
…inter-objective (balance of interests)
ESA ESM
Limits to Growth – WORLD3• World3 – complex but basically simple
• Causal relationships between the earth‘s biological systems and human (economic) development
• It‘s all about the development of stocks, such as…
…human population…industrial capital…environmental pollution…natural resources
WORLD3 is not about absolute figures…
…it‘s about trends, causal relationships, feedback loops
World3 assumes…
…unlimited Growth of…
…population
…capital
until the physical limit is reached
World3 Central question:
What happens now?!
Population growth 1
time
Earth‘s ecological capacity
world population
sour
ce:
limits
to
grow
th –
30y
upd
ate
Population growth 2
Earth‘s ecological capacity
world population
time sour
ce:
limits
to
grow
th –
30y
upd
ate
Population growth 3
Earth‘s ecological capacity
world population
time
we are here
sour
ce:
limits
to
grow
th –
30y
upd
ate
Population growth 4
Earth‘s ecological capacity
world population
time
we are here
sour
ce:
limits
to
grow
th –
30y
upd
ate
source: limits to growth – 30y update
Safe landing
?!
source: limits to growth – 30y update
Has anything changed (because of WORLD3) ?!
source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184
IGBP Objective
• To describe and understand Earth System dynamics
• focusing on the interactive biological, chemical and physical processes
• the changes that are occurring in these dynamics
• and the role of human activities in these changes
IGBP II Structure
sour
ce:
http
://w
ww
.igbp
.net
/pag
e.ph
p?pi
d=18
4
Earth System Science Partnership
Health
START
source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184
sour
ce:
http
://w
ww
.igbp
.net
/pag
e.ph
p?pi
d=18
4
Integrated Regional Studies
•assess the influence of regional processes on Earth System functioning (and vice-versa)
•be integrative (natural and social sciences, all components of the Earth System, planning to synthesis)
•contribute sound scientific understanding in support of sustainable development in the region
•be scientifically-driven by scientists in the region, with global collaboration
Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA)
•80 research groups - 600 scientists
•How does Amazonia function as a regional entity (e.g., natural cycles of water, energy, aerosols, carbon, nutrient and trace-gases)?
•How will changes in land use and climate affect the biological, chemical and physical functioning of Amazonia, including its sustainability and influence on global climate?
source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184
Take home message
Earth system analyses/models show trends, not figures.
ESA can be used as an early warning system
ESM should be used as a political tool to design rough national and international strategies for decades to come
IRS should be used a regional planning tool for sustainable development wherever available
For more information on ESA, ESM and global change research, visit:
http://www.igbp.net
Comments for Lars Schmidt from Manfred Stock
1. To be finished .....
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