diapositiva 1 - bbva research€¦ · exchange rate (vs. usd, eop) 1934 2344 2965 2700 exchange...

Página 3

3.4 3.23.5

2.4 2.5 2.5

0.91.5

1.82.1 2.2

2.5

0.2

-2.5

-0.5

1.9 1.9 2.02.4 2.5

2.8

7.36.9

6.2

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

USA Eurozone MEX BRA CHI PER CHN

World Developed LatAm and China

Página 4

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

23

Ja

n-1

2

23

Fe

b-1

2

23

Ma

r-1

2

23

Ap

r-1

2

23

Ma

y-1

2

23

Ju

n-1

2

23

Ju

l-1

2

23

Au

g-1

2

23

Se

p-1

2

23

Oct-

12

23

No

v-1

2

23

De

c-1

2

23

Ja

n-1

3

23

Fe

b-1

3

23

Ma

r-1

3

23

Ap

r-1

3

23

Ma

y-1

3

23

Ju

n-1

3

23

Ju

l-1

3

23

Au

g-1

3

23

Se

p-1

3

23

Oct-

13

23

No

v-1

3

23

De

c-1

3

23

Ja

n-1

4

23

Fe

b-1

4

23

Ma

r-1

4

23

Ap

r-1

4

23

Ma

y-1

4

23

Ju

n-1

4

23

Ju

l-1

4

23

Au

g-1

4

23

Se

p-1

4

23

Oct-

14

23

No

v-1

4

23

De

c-1

4

23

Ja

n-1

5

23

Fe

b-1

5

23

Ma

r-1

5

23

Ap

r-1

5

23

Ma

y-1

5

23

Ju

n-1

5

23

Ju

l-1

5

23

Au

g-1

5

23

Se

p-1

5

23

Oct-

15

Developed Emerging

Página 5

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Last

Probability of Fed rate first hike in Dec-15 (Left axis) Unemployment rate (Right axis) Core Inflation (Right axis)

Página 6

9987

102118

132 138

266

164

105 106 10494

81 8376 76

97 10185

52 5057

44 44

102 98105

124134 134

162147

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ma

r-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

La

st

Ma

r-1

4

Jun-1

4

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

La

st

Ma

r-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

La

st

Ma

r-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

La

st

Embi ColCap Brent Exchange rate

Página 7

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19

Brent WTI Soybean Cooper

Página 8

2,629

3,231

4,692

12,436

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

January February March April May June July August September October November December

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total year

Página 9

5.2

3.0

4.3

6.4

5.6

4.1

5.5

4.8

4.1

4.9

4.04.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Current account deficit Trade Deficit FDI

2014 2015 2016 2017

Página 10

13.9 14.1 13.7 14.513.6

3.0 2.6 2.6 1.82.1

2.2 2.6 2.6 2.82.8

19.1 19.2 18.9 19.118.5

0

4

8

12

16

20

MFMP15 Oct-15 MFMP15 Oct-15

2014 2015* 2016*

Operation Investment Intertest payments

Página 11

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

oct-

99

oct-

00

oct-

01

oct-

02

oct-

03

oct-

04

oct-

05

oct-

06

oct-

07

oct-

08

oct-

09

oct-

10

oct-

11

oct-

12

oct-

13

oct-

14

oct-

15

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Oct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oct-

15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oct-

16

Ja

n-1

7

Ap

r-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Oct-

17

Ja

n-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Oct-

18

Exchange rate Annual average

Página 13

4.4

2.73.2

3.9

8.4

5.5

2.7

5.4

1.6

-1.3-0.9

1.6

10.4

8.1

5.8

8.77.9

2.1

6.9

9.4

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15* 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15* 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15* 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15* 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15*

Economic monitoring index Retail sales Industrial production Cement sales Concrete production

Página 14

-1

5

10

15

20

25

30

8

10

12

Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15

Unemployment rate (Lef axis) Fear of losing employment (Right axis) Households confidence (Right axis)

Página 15

6.6

4.0

4.94.6

2.72.4

9.0

4.95.2

6.7

2.0 2.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP Growth Internal demanda growth

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Mining

Public administration, socialsecurity, health and education

Transport, storateand communication

Wholesale, retail trade,restaurants and hotels

Electricity, Gas, Water

Financial and business activities

Agriculture

Construction

Industry

2015 2016

Página 17

2.9

1.7

2.5

3.9

5.3

4.7

6.76.9

3.5

1.7

4.0

6.6

4.0

4.94.6

2.72.4

3.5

3.9

4.5 4.5

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Importance of civil works GDP GDO except civil works

Página 18

5

10

15

20

dic

-01

jun

-02

dic

-02

jun

-03

dic

-03

jun

-04

dic

-04

jun

-05

dic

-05

jun

-06

dic

-06

jun

-07

dic

-07

jun

-08

dic

-08

jun

-09

dic

-09

jun

-10

dic

-10

jun

-11

dic

-11

jun

-12

dic

-12

jun

-13

dic

-13

jun

-14

dic

-14

jun

-15

dic

-15

jun

-16

dic

-16

jun

-17

dic

-17

jun

-18

dic

-18

Unemployment rate Seasonally adjusted

5.6%

4.1%

3.9%

3.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

en

e-1

5

feb

-15

ma

r-1

5

ab

r-1

5

ma

y-1

5

jun-1

5

jul-1

5

ag

o-1

5

se

p-1

5

oct-

15

Dec 2015 12-months ahead Dec 2016 24-months ahead

8.8

4.3

6.4

3.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

oct-

13

dic

-13

feb

-14

ab

r-1

4

jun-1

4

ag

o-1

4

oct-

14

dic

-14

feb

-15

ab

r-1

5

jun-1

5

ag

o-1

5

oct-

15

Food Non-tradable Tradable Regulated

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

dic

-13

ma

r-1

4

jun-1

4

se

p-1

4

dic

-14

ma

r-1

5

jun-1

5

se

p-1

5

dic

-15

ma

r-1

6

jun-1

6

se

p-1

6

dic

-16

ma

r-1

7

jun-1

7

se

p-1

7

dic

-17

MoM (←) YoY (→)

NOV-16

2015: 5,9%

2016: 3,7%

2017: 3,3%

Página 22

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

dic

-11

ma

r-1

2

jun-1

2

se

p-1

2

dic

-12

ma

r-1

3

jun-1

3

se

p-1

3

dic

-13

ma

r-1

4

jun-1

4

se

p-1

4

dic

-14

ma

r-1

5

jun-1

5

se

p-1

5

dic

-15

ma

r-1

6

jun-1

6

se

p-1

6

dic

-16

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

en

e-0

3

en

e-0

4

en

e-0

5

en

e-0

6

en

e-0

7

en

e-0

8

en

e-0

9

en

e-1

0

en

e-1

1

en

e-1

2

en

e-1

3

en

e-1

4

en

e-1

5

MPR (deflated with headline CPI)

MPR (deflated with core CPI)

MPR(deflated with 12-month ahead CPI expectations)

Página 23

Colombia enfrenta bien el choque petrolero y permanecerá en tasas de crecimiento moderadas con un mejor perfil de crecimiento

2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP (% YoY) 4.9 4.6 2.7 2.4

Private Consumption (% YoY) 3.8 4.4 2.8 2.3

Public Consumption (% YoY) 9.2 6.2 2.0 0.2

Fixed Invesment (% YoY) 6.0 10.9 2.7 5.1

Domestic Demand (% YoY)

Inflation (% a/a, eop) 1.9 3.7 5.9 3.7

Exchange rate (vs. USD, eop) 1934 2344 2965 2700

Exchange rate (vs. USD, average) 1869 2001 2711 2800

Interest rate BanRep (%, eop) 3.25 4.50 5.50 5.00

Interest rate DTF (% eop) 4.06 4.34 5.35 5.27

Fiscal balance (% GDP) -2.4 -2.4 -3.1 -3.6

Current account (% GDP) -3.3 -5.2 -6.4 -5.5

Source: DANE, Banco de la República, Ministerio de Hacienda and BBVA Research Colombia

Colombia