dialogic design for foresight : dwd workshop

PAIN CONSULT

Concept design workshop

Peter Jones, OCAD University Sept 12, 2012

Imagining Future Urban Challenges

A Dialogic Design Workshop

Social Sciences & Humanities Research Council

• Across Canada - 6 Regional panel sessions OCADU led with York, Ryerson, UOIT, Windsor

• Based on large foresight / scan project “Shaping Tomorrow” 3500 trends, 70K insights, initial set > 200 trends

• We proposed a focused panel on a well-framed issue to derive challenges in response to a single major trend: Urbanization

• 18 members selected from S. Ontario for STEEP/CI + diversity Requisite Variety

Imagining Canada’s Future 2030

Sampling approach based on Ashby’s systems principle

• STEEP CI Criteria: Social, Technology, Economy, Ecology, Political, Culture / Intellect

• Diversity: Age cohort, Academic, Professional, ethnicity, gender

• Smaller groups that meet stricter stakeholder criteria

• Invested in the future problem, sufficient care, action

Requisite Variety

• “Co-laboratory of Democracy” approach – Strongly democratic

• Multi-staged, progressive reasoning process

• Cogniscope software (Root Cause Mapping)

• Multi-Facilitated

• Canonical, rigorous

• Guides dialogue toward effective action

• Employed as action research

• Well published in social & systems literatures

Structured Dialogic Design

• Cyprus Reunification Dialogues (1990 – 2011) EU project for Israeli-Palestinian dialogues

• WHO Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis Partners, Clinicians, Villagers & Pharma from multiple agencies (1999)

• Transnational Indigenous Leaders Dialogue on Globalization: 40 Indigenous leaders from Americas and New Zealand & experts

• US Forest Service - Forest Service Priority Setting (2003)

• Alternative Energy Future Planning, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance

Democratic - For complexity & power

1

2

3

Deliberative co-created design of an envisioned social system

Diagnosing Problematique

Clarifying Challenges

Clustering Challenges

11

“Obamavision” Wiki

Constructing Challenges into Influence Map

ICF Influence Map – 12 Challenges

• “When concurrence-seeking becomes so dominant in a cohesive in-group that it tends to override realistic appraisal of alternative courses of action. (Janis, 1971)

• Spreadthink: Unable to reach any genuine consensus, or even majority view toward component aspects of a complex issue

• Clanthink: When like groups maintain concurrence within group

• Linkthink: When people “link” like ideas in concurrence

Warfield: “Facilitators who try to bring groups to a consensus without the aid of some methodology that resolves the difficulties caused by Spreadthink may well be driving the group to Groupthink, and thus helping to arrive at a decision that lacks individual support and, usually, lacks substance.

Resolves Groupthink

Triggering Question

“In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do we anticipate for Southern Ontario, now through 2030?"

Clarify the meaning, and co-create the TQ so we

own it as a group.

Triggering Question

Triggering Question

“In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do we anticipate for Southern Ontario, now through 2030?"

Your response: Write 3 challenge statements on single sheet. Short phrase that distills the essence of a complex problem as a challenge

Not a solution “create alternative transportation systems” Or an outcome “Better regional government”

Pair up & workshop all 3, & refine. Then read one each in turn. Write your chosen challenge (or 2) one per sheet and post.

Generation

Triggering Question

Read one challenge, in turn around circle. Questions for clarification – quickly – taken in this round.

Rapid Clarification

Triggering Question

Group of 4-5 – Go to wall & cluster together / name categories Group 1 - 5 Minutes Group 2 – 4 Minutes Group 3 – 3 Minutes Group 4 – 2 Minutes

Based on Delphi & iterative refinement.

Clustering Challenges

Triggering Question

Mark an X on up to 3 different challenges Order challenges in cluster by votes.

Voting

Triggering Question

Make 5 DIVERSE groups of 5-6 Each group selects one item from each category. You can copy! Construct at least one scenario describing the future relationship of these challenges, their co-evolution together & their possible resolutions.

Position sheets in a narrative order Sketch images of the possible relationships, influences, outcomes Present each in 5 min rapid round

Scenarios