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DG ECFIN
ECFIN– 12/10/2009ECFIN– 12/10/2009Slide Slide 11
Effect of the changeover to the Effect of the changeover to the mandatory reply on the response rate mandatory reply on the response rate
for the French surveysfor the French surveys
José Bardaji, Olivier Biau,José Bardaji, Olivier Biau, Vincent Bonnefoy, Jean-Baptiste PinaultVincent Bonnefoy, Jean-Baptiste Pinault
Fourth Joint EU OECD Workshop on Business and Consumer Surveys
Brussels, 12 -13 October 2009
European CommissionDirectorate General Economic and Financial Affairs
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 22
IntroductionIntroduction
• In January 2004, two surveys became mandatory:– Monthly « Activity » – Quarterly « Investment »
• Biannual « Cash » survey remained voluntary
• Did the response rate improve ?
• Did the new respondents have specific behaviour?
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 33
AgendaAgenda
• Short presentation of the 3 surveys
• Descriptive analyse of the impact of the obligation– On the response rates (short and medium term)– On the behaviour of new respondents
• Confirmation based on microeconometric study
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 44
3 French Industry Surveys3 French Industry Surveys
• Monthly: « Activity » survey (11 per year)• Quarterly: « Investment » (3 per year)
Both included in the JH EU Programme of BCS
• Biannual: « Cash » survey (2 per year) Not included in the JH EU Programme of BCS
• Same survey sample (n=4.000 firms), stratified sampling with exhaustive stratum
• Qualitative questions: ↑ = ↓
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 55
Common methodology Common methodology to analyse the response rateto analyse the response rate
• To eliminate seasonality in response rate, analyse on several dates before and after 2004
• Short term (2003-2004): 6 « Activity », 2 « Investment » and 2 «Cash »
• Medium term and econometric analysis (2001-2006): 66 « Activity », 18 « Investment » and 12 « Cash »
• To eliminate the periodically updates of the sample, study based on balanced samples
• Response: at least one in the questionnaire
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 66
Analyse of the response rates Analyse of the response rates short term: 2003-2004short term: 2003-2004
• Significant increase of response rate for « Activity » (+2 points) and « Investment » (+3 points)
• Not for « Cash »
Activity Investment Cash
Before obligation 78,9 % 71,4 % 76,4 %
After obligation 81,2 % 74,3 % 75,3 %
Difference +2,3 pp +2,9 pp -1,1 pp
t-Test (difference=0) Rejected (p-value = 0,0002)
Rejected (p-value = 0,0002)
Rejected (p-value = 0,1834)
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 77
Analyse of the response rates Analyse of the response rates medium term: 2001-2006medium term: 2001-2006
• Strong significant increase of response rate for « Activity » (+5 points) and « Investment » (+9 points)
• But also for « Cash » (+1.5 point)
Activity Investment Cash
Before obligation 84,4% 76,0% 82,2%
After obligation 89,7% 84,9% 83,7%
Difference +5,3 pp +8,8 pp +1,5 pp
t-Test (difference=0) Rejected (p-value < 0,0001)
Rejected (p-value < 0,0001)
Rejected (p-value = 0,0075)
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 88
Analyse of the response rates Analyse of the response rates medium term: 2001-2006medium term: 2001-2006
Cumulative fonction: P(number of responses ≤ n)
n max =33
• For « Activity », 60% of firms respond at least 30 times before obligation and 70% after.
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33
Before
After
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 99
Behaviour of new respondentsBehaviour of new respondents
• Focus on « Activity » - 3 months before and 3 months after the changeover to mandatory reply
• Difference in difference estimator DD = (Y1 –Y0)Treatment group – (Y1-Y0)Control group
Y1: output AFTER obligation (e.g. balance, %stable) Y0: output BEFORE obligation
• Same fixed effects in both groups: same trend in economic outlook
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 1010
Behaviour of new respondentsBehaviour of new respondents
• Control group: firms that respond to the 6 surveys (no effect of the change over)
• Treatment groups: firms whose number of responses changes (eg. Better)
Before After
none one two three
none Impossible Nothing after Nothing after Nothing after
one Nothing before Same Worst Worst
two Nothing before Better Same Worst
three Nothing before Better Better Control
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 1111
Behaviour of new respondentsBehaviour of new respondents
• Y = %stable in question Q5 (expectation)
• No specific behavior of the new respondents.
Before After Difference Double difference (1) (2) (2)-(1)
Control Group Control (1 731 firms) 55 56 2 Nothing before (106) 57 nd nd Nothing after (188) 38 nd nd Worst (235) 55 55 0 -2 Same (124) 56 58 2 0 %
stab
le Q
5
Traitment Groups
Better (238) 53 55 2 0
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 1212
Microeconometric studyMicroeconometric study
• Statistical unit: firm
• Balanced samples 2001-2006
• Merge with BRN’s database (fiscal declaration and annual survey)
• Size of samples : 1 500 to 2 000
• Modelling the probability of non response: yit=1 ou 0
• Obligation: 1 if t ≥ 2004
• 3 models:– Without fixed effects (Logit)– With fixed effects (Random effects Probit and Conditional Logit)
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 1313
3 models3 models
Logit:
yit* = Xit.β + Xi.γ + εit
Random Effects Probit:
yit* = Xit.β + Xi.γ + ci + uit
Conditional Logit:
yit* = Xit.β + ci + vit
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 1414
Random Effects ProbitRandom Effects Probit
yit* = Xit.β + Xi.γ + ci + uit Enquête
Activité Enquête
I nvestissement Enquête
Trésorerie(1) (N = 95 491) (N = 40 919) (N = 17 600)
β σβ Signif. β σβ Signif. β σβ Signif. Constante -1,41 (0,08) *** -0,95 (0,08) *** -1,47 (0,13) *** Délais moyens de règlement client 0,35 (0,09) *** 0,05 (0,10) 0,38 (0,19) ** Salaire moyen -0,23 (0,13) * -0,22 (0,15) 0,00 (0,20) Part des salaires dans la production -0,41 (0,14) *** -0,27 (0,16) * -0,51 (0,28) * Taux d’endettement 0,08 (0,05) * 0,08 (0,06) 0,34 (0,13) *** Taux de marge -0,03 (0,01) *** -0,04 (0,01) *** -0,04 (0,01) *** Nomenclature économique de synthèse
Industrie agroalimentaire 0,14 (0,10) 0,11 (0,10) 0,15 (0,14) Industrie de biens de consommation 0,12 (0,07) * 0,19 (0,07) *** 0,24 (0,10) ** Industrie automobile 0,24 (0,15) 0,24 (0,15) 0,03 (0,25) Industrie de biens d’équipement -0,03 (0,07) -0,01 (0,06) 0,05 (0,10) Industrie de biens intermédiaires Référence référence référence
Énergie 0,33 (0,53) 0,45 (0,27) * 1,37 (0,51) *** Chiffre d’affaires
moins de 15 millions d’€ -0,11 (0,04) *** -0,12 (0,05) ** -0,23 (0,09) *** entre 15M€ et 150M€ Référence référence référence
150 M€ et plus -0,02 (0,05) -0,07 (0,07) -0,04 (0,10) Effectif
moins de 100 salariés -0,01 (0,05) -0,10 (0,05) * -0,25 (0,09) *** entre 100 et 500 salariés Référence référence référence
500 salariés et plus 0,36 (0,05) *** 0,39 (0,06) *** 0,49 (0,09) *** Obligation -0,34 (0,01) *** -0,43 (0,02) *** -0,09 (0,03) *** σc 0,99 (0,03) *** 0,99 (0,02) *** 1,19 (0,04) ***
DG ECFIN
Olivier BiauOlivier BiauEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial AffairsEuropean Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs
ECFIN – 12/10/2009ECFIN – 12/10/2009Slide Slide 1515
ConclusionsConclusions
• Significant improvement of the response rate for « Activity » and « Investment »
• Stronger effect at medium term
• Whatever the model, the obligation increased the probability of response
• Response rate for optional « Cash » survey also improved, albeit to a smaller extent
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