development of a landscape-scale model for restoration planning following spb induced tree mortality...

Development of a landscape-scale model for restoration planning following SPB induced

tree mortality

John Waldron1, David Cairns2, Robert Coulson3, Charles Lafon2, Maria Tchakerian3, Kier Klepzig4

1. Knowledge Engineering Laboratory, Bent Creek Experimental Forest, 1577 Brevard Road, Asheville, NC 28806.

2. Department of Geography, 810 Eller O&M Building, Texas A&M University, College Station TX, 77843-3147

3. Knowledge Engineering Laboratory, Department of Entomology, 408 Heep Center, Texas A&M University, College Station TX, 77843-2475.

4. Southern Pine Beetle: Ecology, Behavior and Management, USDA-Forest Service Southern Research Station, 2500

Shreveport Highway, Pineville, LA 71360.

Project approach

Use LANDIS to model the restoration of fire-controlled nativePitch pine/Table-Mountain Pine ecosystems in montaneWestern North Carolina.

PAST FUTUREPRESENT

LANDIS (Landscape Disturbance and Succession) was originally designed to meet the following specifications:

● uses satellite imagery or raster GIS for initial input

● operates regionally with cell sizes ranging from 10- 500m

● simulates succession dynamics at 10-year intervals

● simulates forest change at the species level

● simulates disturbances by wind, fire, and harvesting

● simulates the interaction between succession and

disturbances simultaneously

● seed dispersal is simulated in a “spatially explicit” manner

Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project:

1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project areaa. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area

2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT)

-A raster map reflecting the location of the LC

3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF)-Contains information regarding attributes of each species included

4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF)-Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC

5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM)-A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF

6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF)-This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING

7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF)-Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

LandType Class Community Types Elevation Range (m) Slope Aspect

Spruce Fir >1671

Northern Hardwood 1571-1671

Cove Hardwood/Northern Hardwood 1080-1571

Cove Hardwood 937-1080 SW-NE

Mesic Oak 937-1080 NE-SW

Cove Hardwood 684-937 >27.6% SW-NE

Xeric Oak 684-937 >15% E-S

Mixed Mesic Hardwood 684-937 Gentle (<15%)

Mixed Mesic Hardwood 551-684 N-NE

Xeric Oak 551-684 NE-SW

Pine 551-684 SW-N

Xeric Oak <551

Xeric 30 500 1.0 10 250 2500.25 #pinuechi#0.05 #betupapy#0.0 #pinepung#0.25 #pinurigi#0.25 #pinustro#0.75 #pinuvirg#0.0 #thujacan#0.05 #prunpenn#

10 20 40 50 100 #fire curves#1 2 3 4 5 #fire class #0 0 0 0 0 #wind curve#0 0 0 0 0 #mod fire cl#

a. Minimum age cohort present on site before a highly shade tolerant tree can establishb. Mean number of years needed for fire to burn the entire landtypec. Fire ignition coefficient (0 or 1)d. Fire probabilitye. Time since last windthrowf. Time since last fire

a b c d e f

name longevity maturity shade fire eff_seed max_seed veg_prop sprout reclass

Abies fraseri 150 15 5 1 274 1600 0 10

Acer rubrum 150 10 3 1 100 200 0.5 10

Acer saccharum 200 20 5 1 100 200 0.1 10

Aesculus flava (octandra) 200 20 4 2 30 1000 10

Alnus serrulata 30 10 3 1 200 5000 10

Amelanchier arborea 50 20 3 2 30 3000 10

Betula alleghaniensis (lutea) 300 40 4 2 100 400 10

Betula lenta 200 40 1 2 35 200 0.1 10

Betula papyrifera 120 30 2 2 200 5000 0.5 10

Carya alba (tomentosa) 200 25 2 1 30 1000 0.5 10

Carya glabra 300 30 3 1 30 1000 0.5 10

Cornus florida 100 6 5 1 50 3000 1 10

Fagus grandifolia 300 40 5 1 25 3000 10

Fraxinus americana 200 30 4 1 70 140 0.1 10

Liriodendron tulipifera 300 15 2 1 30 300 10

Magnolia acuminata 150 25 3 2 30 3000 10

Magnolia fraseri 70 10 3 1 30 3000 1 10

Magnolia tripetala 60 10 4 1 30 3000 10

Nyssa sylvatica 200 5 4 3 25 3000 10

Ostrya virginiana 100 25 4 2 100 400 0.9 10

Oxydendrum arboreum 100 20 4 2 50 1000 1 10

Picea rubens 400 20 4 1 60 200 0.1 10

Pinus pungens 250 5 2 5 90 275 0.25 10

Pinus rigida 200 10 2 5 90 275 0.9 10

Pinus strobus 400 15 3 3 100 250 0 10

Pinus virginiana 100 5 1 3 30 275 0.1 10

Platanus occidentalis 250 25 4 1 200 5000 10

Prunus pensylvanica 30 10 1 1 30 3000 10

Prunus serotina 200 20 2 1 30 3000 0.5 10

Quercus alba 450 20 3 3 50 3000 0.5 10

Quercus coccinea 125 20 1 1 50 3000 1 10

Quercus prinus 350 20 3 1 50 3000 1 10

Quercus rubra 300 25 3 2 50 3000 0.5 10

Quercus velutina 150 20 3 3 50 3000 1 10

Robinia pseudo-acacia 100 6 1 1 30 3000 10

Salix nigra 75 10 1 2 200 5000 1 10

Sassafras albidum 200 10 2 1 30 3000 1 10

Sorbus americana 50 15 2 2 30 3000 10

Tilia americana var. heterophylla

250 15 4 2 30 120 0.5 10

Tsuga canadensis 450 30 5 3 30 100 0 10

Tsuga caroliniana 450 20 5 3 30 100 0 10

# Xeric - early - Common (1) ##prunpenn# 0 000000000000#pinuechi# 1 000000000000#betupapy# 1 000000000000000000#pinepung# 0 00000000000000000000#pinurigi# 1 00000000000000000000#pinustro# 1 0100000#pinuvirg# 1 000000000000000#thujacan# 0 000

# Xeric - Mid - Common (2) #0 1000000000001 0000000000001 0000000000000000000 010000000000000000001 010000000000000000001 00001001 0000000000000000 000

# Xeric - Late - Common (3) #0 0000010000001 0000000000001 0000000000000000000 000001000000000000001 000000000000000000001 00000001 0000000000000000 000

# Xeric - early - Rare (4) #0 0000000000001 1000000000001 0000000000000000000 000000000000000000001 000000000000000000001 00000001 000000000000000

First number is a vegetative propagation flagAnd the remaining numbers are the age cohorts

present

LANDIS-BDA: Biological Disturbance Agent module

Models Biological Disturbances (Disease & Insect)5 Main Elements

1) Site Resource Dominance (SRD)- Indicates quality of food resources on a given site (cell)

2) Site Resource Modifiers- Adjust SRD to reflect variation in in food resources by land type and disturbance

3) Neighborhood Resource Dominance- distance-weighted average of SRD in all sites within a user-specified neighborhood. Combined with SRD

to calculate Site Vulnerability, which dictates severity of Outbreak.

4) Temporal Disturbance Function- Determines temporal behavior of Biological Agent (chronic, cyclic, random)

5) Dispersal- Uses a search vector to identify barriers to annual dispersal distance in 4 or 8 directions. (UNDER DEVELOPMENT)

Spruce Budworm ExampleBased on data provided by B. Sturtevant

100m x 100m cells512 x 512 cell landscape

Spruce Budworm ExampleBased on data provided by B. Sturtevant

100m x 100m cells512 x 512 cell landscape

BUDWORM 20 YEARS

BUDWORM 60 YEARS

BUDWORM 100 YEARS

BUDWORM 140 YEARS

BUDWORM 180 YEARS

Age CohortsBare 10-3040-6070-90100-120130-150160-180190-210220-240250-270280-300310-330340-360370-390400-420430-450460-480490-510520-540550-570580-600

Balsam Fir Age Cohorts10-2030-4050-6070-8090-100110-120120-130Absent

PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 10

Next Step: SPB-BDA

1. Calibration of LANDIS to fit our study area

2. Calibration of BDA to fit SPB behavior

3. Testing of Model on Simple Hypothetical Landscapes

4. Engaging the model in restoration scenarios

5. Analysis of data

6. Dissemination of Results

Anticipated Products

1. Better understanding of SPB at Landscape Scale

2. Knowledge of how best to re-structure SPB infested landscapes to make them:

a) More SPB Resistantb) Ecologically correct

3. A tool to aid in constructing more robust management plans for restoring forests disturbed by SPB

development of a landscape-scale model for restoration planning following spb induced tree mortality...

spb slide

pastfuturepresent slide

explicit manner slide

communities of species

species file sf

species vulnerabilities

species level

species composition

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