development activity update - ocso - december 8, 2016

Development Activity Review

Orange County Sheriff’s Office

December 8, 2016

Presentation Outline

Introduction Development Activity Impact Fees Future Growth Summary

Presentation Outline

Introduction Development Activity Impact Fees Future Growth Summary

Introduction

Activity levels return to normal Construction valuation increased Indicators for continued

growth in 2017

Presentation Outline

Introduction Development Activity Impact Fees Future Growth Summary

2,244

1,017

689 853 902

1,585

2,100 2,130 2,394

3,640

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

Development Activity

Single Family Residential – New Construction

Development Activity

Map of FY16 SFR Permits

Development Activity

Map of FY16 SFR Permits

Development Activity

Map of FY16 SFR Permits

Development Activity

Map of FY16 SFR Permits

Count of FY16 SFR Permits by Sector

Development Activity

Sector Count

1 167 2 400 3 883 4 906 5 1,152 6 21

$517

$239 $174

$240 $309

$554

$767 $814

$889

$1,289

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16Mill

ions

Development Activity

Single Family Residential – Total Valuation

$230k $235k $253k

$281k

$343k $349k $365k

$382k $371k $354k

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16Thou

sand

s

Development Activity

Single Family Residential – Average Valuation

11,436

8,371

13,828

19,362 18,055

17,217 18,790

17,582

21,067 21,172

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

Development Activity

Residential Units – Existing Home Sales

Foreclosure Filings

8,777

23,196

31,014

22,724

9,622

13,900

10,144

6,069 4,994 4,181

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

Development Activity

Existing Homes Sales – Normal vs. Distressed

29% 33%

43%

57%

68% 70%

84%

71% 67%

57%

43%

32% 30%

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

NormalDistressed

Development Activity

2,863

757

248

674 717

1,174

2,167

3,039

4,822

3,366

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

Development Activity

Total Platted Lots

$73

$48

$33

$54

$76

$93

$78

$96

$116

$144

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16Mill

ions

Development Activity

Townhomes – Total Valuation

Development Activity

Map of FY16 Townhome Permits

$229

$100

$38 $48 $61

$227

$282

$213

$125

$509

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

Mill

ions

Development Activity

Multi-Family Residential – Total Valuation

Development Activity

Map of FY16 MFR Permits

Map of FY16 MFR Permits

Development Activity

Dwell at Lake Nona

Integra Cove

Zen Luxury

Reserve at Alafaya

Ancora

Oasis at Grande Pines

Brixton Landing

Goldenrod Pointe

$701

$647

$341

$249 $263

$350 $351

$455 $460

$546

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16Mill

ions

Commercial – Total Valuation

Development Activity

Development Activity

Map of FY16 Commercial Permits

Development Activity

Map of FY16 Commercial Permits

Hamlin

Westside Shoppes

Development Activity

Map of FY16 Commercial Permits

Walmart Market

Walmart Market

Lucky’s Market

Orchard Supply

Development Activity

Map of FY16 Commercial Permits

Bent Oak

Horizon Commerce

Siemens

Crews Commerce

$803

$414

$27 $0 $20 $8 $19 $8

$51 $82

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16Mill

ions

Hotel – Total Valuation

Development Activity

Development Activity

Map of FY16 Hotel Permits

$2.32

$1.45

$0.61 $0.59 $0.73

$1.23

$1.50 $1.58 $1.64

$2.57

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16Bill

ions

New Construction – Total Valuation

Development Activity

76,583

52,603

39,453 38,381 40,023

45,765

52,397

58,211

65,302 70,427

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

Development Activity

Total Building Permits

Presentation Outline

Introduction Development Activity Impact Fees Future Growth Summary

Impact Fees

Ensure new development pays for services Used to cover capital expenditures

–Facilities, vehicles, land & equipment Commercial – Transportation, Law & Fire Residential – Adds School & Parks Fees assessed at

permit issuance

$85.9

$68.6

$30.6 $29.9 $27.1

$35.8 $33.9

$58.9 $63.8

$66.7

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16Mill

ions

Impact Fees

Total Impact Fees

Law Enforcement Impact Fees

$1.4 $1.3

$0.5 $0.4 $0.4 $0.5

$1.1

$1.9

$1.7

$2.8

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16

Mill

ions

Impact Fees

Impact Fees – Law Enforcement

Single Family Residential (unit) $271 Multi-Family Residential (unit) $319 Mobile Home (unit) $263

Commercial/Retail (1,000 Sq. Ft.) $494 Manufacturing (1,000 Sq. Ft.) $118 Office/Institutional (1,000 Sq. Ft.) $109 Private Schools (1,000 Sq. Ft.) $32 Warehouse (1,000 Sq. Ft.) $57 Hotel/Motel (per room) $135

Impact Fees

Law Enforcement Fee Update –Consultant Selected (Tindale Oliver) –Contract Finalized (underway) –Draft Fee Development (January – April) –Advisory Board Review (May – September) –BCC Adoption (Late 2017)

Presentation Outline

Introduction Development Activity Impact Fees Future Growth Summary

Future Growth

Sunbridge Camino Reale Lake Pickett South – “The Grow” Horizon West International Drive Redevelopment

Future Growth

Sunbridge

Future Growth

Sunbridge – Developed by Tavistock – 4,787 acres – Up to 7,370 Dwelling Units – 6.3 million SF of office/retail – 2.9 million SF of industrial

Future Growth

Camino Reale

Future Growth

Camino Reale – Connects to Sunbridge – 1,032 acres – Up to 3,000 Dwelling Units – 330,000 SF of non-residential

–OCSO shooting range –CC&R noise

Future Growth

Lake Pickett South – “The Grow”

Future Growth

Lake Pickett South – “The Grow” – Up to 2,078 Dwelling Units – 178,000 SF of non-residential – Working farm – Equestrian facility

– Currently being

challenged at State

–North project denied

Future Growth

Horizon West

Future Growth

Horizon West – 4% of County acreage – 53% of residential growth – 20,704 acres – 40,282 Dwelling Units – 13,000 permitted – ~ 30% buildout

Future Growth

Horizon West – Lakeside Village – Complete – Village of Bridgewater – Complete – Village F – Under construction – Village H – Starting construction – Village I – PD approval – Town Center – Under Construction

Future Growth

International Drive Redevelopment

Future Growth

International Drive Redevelopment – Over $1 billion in private sector investment – Skyplex, Starflyer – Hotels, Multi-family, retail

Presentation Outline

Introduction Development Activity Impact Fees Future Growth Summary

Summary

Higher valued projects Strong indicators for continued growth – 2017 Impact fee update impacts revenue Residential growth concentrated

Development Activity Review

Orange County Sheriff’s Office

December 8, 2016