deportation vs. legalization in new mexico
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The Consequences of LegalizationVersus Mass Deportation in New MexFindings and Methodology
Dr. Ral Hinojosa-Ojeda August 2012
WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.O
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The Consequences ofLegalization Versus MassDeportation in New MexicoFindings and Methodology
Dr. Ral Hinojosa-Ojeda August 2012
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1 Introduction
3 Economic contribution of immigrants in New Mexico
5 The economic consequences of mass deportation
7 The benefits of legalizing undocumented immigrants
in New Mexico
9 Appendix: Methodology
13 About the Author
14 Endnotes
Contents
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The effects of mass deportation versus legalization in New Mexico
What would happen to New Mexicos economy were it to drive out all of its undocumented immigrants? Conversely, what would
the impact be if all of New Mexicos undocumented immigrants acquired legal status? Our analysis finds that New Mexico would
stand to see significant gains if legalization occurs, and significant losses if mass deportation became a reality.
These results have been calculated using the IMPLAN system. For the complete New Mexico ndings and methodology,
visit our website at: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/report/2012/08/29/35236//
Total undocumented in 2010
(4.2% of total population)
85,000
2,013,000Total population in 2010
New Mexico fast facts Current contributions of undocumented workers
47,000Total undocumented
workers
$2.4 billionGross state product of
undocumented workers
$420 millionTax revenue from
undocumented workers
Mass deportation versus legalization in New Mexico
$2.4 billionDecrease in gross
state product if 100%
deportation occurs
8,000Jobs created if 100%
legalization occurs
Total wages
$312 millionincrease if 100%
legalization occurs
$1.2 billiondecrease if 100%
deportation occurs
$90 millionincrease if 100%
legalization occurs
$420 milliondecrease if 100%
deportation occurs
Tax revenue
What could New Mexico do with an extra $90 million in tax revenue?
Give 85 days of free school
lunch to every K-12 student
in the state.
Fund the salaries of close
to 1,300 Registered Nurses.
Fund the yearly salary of
over 2,160 K-12 teachers
in the state.
Fund close to 16,000 Pell
Grants at the maximum level.
Cover the fees for over
1 million Advanced
Placement Exams.
4.4%Of total workers are
undocumented
By Ral Hinojosa-Ojeda, Director of the North American Integration and Development Center, UCLA
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1 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
Introduction
Debaes abou he economic and scal benes and drawbacks o immigrans ypi-
cally oversimpliy he role ha immigrans play in our economy. When one looks
more closely, hey will nd ha he impac immigrans (or any group or ha ma-
er) have on he economy is muliaceed and complex.
Immigrans are no jus workers; hey are also consumers and axpayers. Te
eecs o heir labor and consumpion on economic growh and scal healh
mus be acored in as we consider how o address he siuaion o having a largeundocumened workorce.1
In his repor we describe he direc impacs o eiher deporing or legalizing
undocumened workers. In realiy, he eecs would be much larger. Mass depor-
aion, or example, would resul in an indirec negaive impac on local businesses
because here would be less money circulaing in he local economy, which would
lead o urher job losses.2 Te esimaes repored here should hus be considered
conservaive raher han exhausive.3
We esimae he economic conribuions o immigrans, boh documened
and undocumened, or seven saes: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New
Mexico, exas, and Virginia. Tese seven saes have some o he larges popula-
ions o unauhorized immigrans, and have played and will coninue o play a piv-
oal role in elecions as swing saes. We hen repor he negaive scal impac o
our dieren deporaion scenariosnamely wha would happen i 15, 30, 50, or
100 percen o undocumened immigrans were removed rom he sae. Finally,
we explore he posiive economic oucomes ha would resul rom legalizing
undocumened immigrans in each o he seven saes. (For a deailed explanaion
o he mehodology used, please see he appendix on page 9.)
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2 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
Overall we nd ha each o he seven saes would gain signicanly rom legal-
izing heir unauhorized immigrans, boh in erms o raised wages or all workers
in he sae, new jobs creaed, and addiional ax revenue generaed. Conversely,
deporing even a porion o he unauhorized immigrans would lead o signi-
can losses in gross sae produc, worker wages, and ax revenues. Te benes o
immigraion are clear, and saes sand o prosper hrough posiive immigraionpolicies, or lose ou wih harsh and resricive ones.
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3 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
Economic contribution of
immigrants in New Mexico
New Mexico has a oal populaion o jus over 2 million people, o which
196,000, or jus over 9.7 percen are oreign born. Te sae has 85,000 undocu-
mened immigrans, comprising 4.2 percen o he oal populaion.4 (see able 1)
TABLE 1
Foreign-born residents
Thousands
State of New Mexico Share of total population
Total population 2,013 100%
Legal foreign-born residents 111 5.5%
Undocumented immigrants 85 4.2%
Total foreign-born residents 196 9.7%
Immigran workers as a whole added $6.4 billion o New Mexicos gross sae
produche oal value added by workers o he saein 2010, he laes year
such daa was available. Te undocumened workorce by isel accouned or $2.4
billion o his GSP.5 Immigran workers produce even more by way o goods and
services creaed, wih a oal sae oupu o $15 billion, including $6.4 billion
rom undocumened immigrans alone. (see able 2)
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4 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
TABLE 2
The economic importance of immigrants in the labor force
Employment
(thousands)
Percent of total
employment
Gross state product*
(in millions)
Output**
(in millions)
Employee
compensation***
(in millions)
Total 1,062 100% $71,598 $122,082 $41,970
Legal foreign-born residents 61 5.7% $3,982 $8,684 $2,329
Undocumented immigrants 47 4.4% $2,438 $6,355 $1,211
Total foreign-born residents 107 10.1% $6,420 $15,039 $3,540
*Gross state product or value added includes employee compensation, proprietary income, other property income, and indirect business
tax.
**Output represents the value o the total production o goods and services by industry in the regional economywhether such output isconsumed or not. Output could also be thought as the total value o sales plus or minus inventory.
*** Income received by workers, including benefts and beore taxes.
Immigran workers also pay billions o dollars o axes o he sae reasury. Jus
like he naive born, immigrans pay personal axes, such as income ax and prop-
ery ax, business axes (among hem corporae pros axes, dividends, and prop-
ery axes), and sales axes. Our analysis esimaes ha immigrans on he wholepaid jus over $1 billion in axes o New Mexico in 2010 wih undocumened
immigrans conribuing approximaely $420 million. (see able 3)
TABLE 3
The tax revenues immigrants pay
Local and state taxes
Personal taxes
(in millions)*
Business taxes
(in millions)**
Sales taxes
(in millions)
Total taxes
(in millions)
Total $1,337 $4,439 $3,376 $9,153
Legal foreign-born residents $79 $298 $227 $603
Undocumented immigrants $48 $210 $162 $420
Total foreign-born residents $127 $508 $389 $1,023
*Personal taxes include income tax, motor vehicle license ees, property tax, and other nontax fnes and ees.
**Business taxes include corporate profts tax, dividends, motor vehicle license ees, property tax, severance tax, and other taxes.
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5 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
The economic consequences
of mass deportation
So wha would happen i all he undocumened immigrans were driven rom
he sae?
Removing all o he undocumened immigrans rom New Mexico would have
subsanial, indeed devasaing, consequences or everyone remaining in he sae.
Driving undocumened immigrans ou o New Mexico would lead o subsan-
ially diminished earnings, decreased gross sae produc, and los ax revenue or
he sae governmen, which is already reeling rom he recession and high unem-ploymen7.2 percen in 2010 (he base year or calculaions) and 6.5 percen as
o June 2012.
Our analysis shows ha he conracion rom rapidly removing undocumened
immigran workers would have severe ramicaions or he sae. I all undocu-
mened workers were expelled, New Mexico would lose more han $1.2 billion
in employmen compensaion, dened as preax salary and wage earnings. While
i is likely ha some o hese posiions would be lled by oher workers, i even
15 percen o unauhorized immigran jobs go unlled, he sae sands o lose
$182 million in employee compensaion.6 (see able 4) As ha worker income
decreases, he earnings ha would oherwise be spen in he saes economy, or
example, on groceries, clohes, and housing, are los.
Tere is ample reason o suspec ha a leas a porion o hese jobs would no
be readily aken by oher workers. Immigrans end o live clusered in cerain
communiies, where here may no be a ready supply o oher workers o ll he
openings hey would leave behind.7 Addiionally, undocumened workers end o
have skill ses ha are specic o he indusries hey work in (or example, con-
srucion, home healh services, ec.) ha ofen do no mach hose o he naive-born unemployed.8
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6 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
TABLE 4
Mass deportation, mass income losses
Employee compensation in millions
Total employee
compensation
Direct employee
compensation*
State of New Mexico $41,970
15 percent deportation -$182
30 percent deportation -$363
50 percent deportation -$605
100 percent deportation -$1,211
* Change in employee compensation as a result o the direct removal o undocumented individuals romthe regional economy.
Tis cycle o diminished earnings, consumpion, and demand would shrink New
Mexicos economy. Our analysis indicaes ha New Mexicos gross sae produc
would be reduced by more han $2.4 billion i he enire undocumened populaion
were driven rom he sae. And even i a proporion o hese unauhorized jobs gounlledsay 15 percenha would decrease GSP by $366 million. (see able 5)
TABLE 5
Devastating New Mexicos economy
The effects of deporting undocumented immigrant workers on state domestic product
Gross state product, or GSP, in millions
Total GSP Direct GSP impact*
State of New Mexico $71,598
15 percent deportation -$366
30 percent deportation -$731
50 percent deportation -$1,219
100 percent deportation -$2,438
* Change in employee compensation as a result o the direct removal o undocumented individuals rom
the regional economy.
Finally, mass deporaion would also signicanly decrease he saes ax revenue,
salling he saes economic recovery and orcing painul choices beween cuting
back services or implemening new ax increases. Alogeher, New Mexico would
lose $420 million were mass deporaion o become a realiy. (see able 3)
Te nex secion deails why doing jus he opposierequiring undocumened
immigrans o regiser and work legallywould have precisely he opposie eec.
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7 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
The benefits of legalizing
undocumented immigrants
in New Mexico
Our analysis shows ha bringing all undocumened workers legally ino he New
Mexico workorce would be unquesionably benecial o he sae economy and
all is residens. Ulimaely, only he ederal governmen can resolve he saus o
he undocumened. Bu or he purposes o our analysis we examine in his sec-
ion o he paper wha would happen i New Mexicos workorce were legalized.
Undocumened immigran workers earn abou 18 percen less in wages han legalworkers.9 A program ha required all undocumened immigrans o earn legal
saus would increase employmen compensaion and employmen in he sae by
closing he wage gap beween documened and undocumened workers. We esi-
mae ha legalizing he undocumened workers in New Mexico would increase
employmen compensaion in he sae by nearly $312 million. (see able 6)
TABLE 6
Legalization: Raising New Mexico
The effects of legalizing undocumented workers on employment compensation
and employment in New MexicoEmployment compensation
increase (in millions)
Direct employment
gain (in thousands)*
New Mexico** $41,970
Legalization $312 8
*Direct employment gain is the increase in employment caused by the legalization o all undocumented immigrants in the regional
economy.
**IMPLAN base data. This case represents the economy without any changes in employment or other values.
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding error.
As he legalized workers and heir amilies spend he increased earnings on new
clohes, a down paymen on a car, or a new aparmen, he eec reverberaeshroughou he economy. Clohing sores, car dealers, and renal agencies boos
heir sales and hire more sa. In oher words, he increase in economic oupu and
consumer spending would precipiae a spike in demand or goods and services.
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8 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
Insead o he downward spiral produced by exracing hese workers rom he saes
economy, requiring hem o earn legal saus would sar a viruous cycle o growh in
jobs and revenue ino moion. Our modeling shows ha legalizing hese workers
and hus increasing heir spending power, which would lead o greaer economic
demand or goods and serviceswould add 8,000 jobs o New Mexicos economy
(see able 6) and increase he saes ax revenues by $90 million.10
(see able 7)TABLE 7
Legalization: Boosting tax revenues by the millions
The effects of legalizing undocumented workers on tax state revenue in New Mexico,
direct effects
Taxes in millions
Personal taxes* Business taxes** Sales taxes Total taxes Total tax gain Percentage chang
New Mexico*** $1,337 $4,439 $3,376 $9,153
Legalization $11 $45 $34 $90 $90 1.0%
*Personal taxes include income tax, motor vehicle license ees, property tax, and other non-tax fnes and ees.
**Business taxes include corporate profts tax, dividends, motor vehicle license ees, property tax, severance tax, and other taxes.
***IMPLAN base data. This case represents the economy without deportation changes.
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9 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
Appendix: Methodology
Tis sudy uses he erm undocumened immigrans o describe hose individu-
als who are no U.S. ciizens or legal residens. Overall and oreign-born popula-
ion esimaes are derived rom he American Communiy Surveys ve-year daa
or 2006-2010, as well as he Pew Hispanic Cener on he number o unauhorized
immigrans in a given sae. o calculae he number o undocumened workers in
each sae, we discouned he oal number o undocumened workers in he labor
orce rom Pew daa by he unemploymen rae or oreign-born workers in he
sae a he ime he daa were colleced.11
About IMPLAN
Tis sudy uses he IMPLAN inpu-oupu models o each saes economy, which
allow researchers o calculae he impacs resuling rom changes in policy and
economic aciviy. Te sudy esimaes he impacs on economic oupu and
employmen in each indusry, and he resuling impac on ax conribuions, given
a range o assumed changes o migraion-relaed policies. Te model allows ideni-
caion o direc economic eecs in aeced indusries, indirec eecs in relaed
indusries, and induced eecs ha cascade hrough he economy. Only direc
economic eecs are uilized in his sudy.
Te IMPLAN inpu-modeling approachIMPLAN sands or IMpac analy-
sis or PLANningis mos useul and appropriae in analyzing he shor-erm
shock o a sae economy ha would be immediaely el rom a signican policy
changeeiher a mass deporaion or a mass legalizaion. Te IMPLAN model-
ing approach is hus well suied o analyze he immediae and regionally specic
impacs resuling rom abrup policy shifs.12
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10 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
IMPLAN data
Te daase used is a 2010 daa le by sae conaining 509 indusries. For his
sudy, he 2010 IMPLAN daa les were aggregaed down o 36 indusries. A
bridge was creaed beween he 509 indusries in he IMPLAN les and he
13 indusries in he U.S. Census Bureaus indusry ables o creae compaibil-iy beween he U.S. Census daa and he IMPLAN daases. I is imporan o
noe ha in his sudy we are using consan 2010 dollar gures provided by he
IMPLAN daabase.
Undocumented worker estimates
Te number o undocumened workers was esimaed using Pew Cener esimaes
or each sae, adjused o accoun or he unemploymen rae among oreign-born
workers. We hen applied he number o undocumened workers o each indusryusing oreign-born worker percenage esimaes or he economies o each region
(see nex secion), since specic esimaes o unauhorized immigrans by sec-
or are no available. For insance, i here were an esimaed 100 undocumened
workers in a given region and esimaes or oreign-born workers in he consruc-
ion indusry in ha region were 23 percen, hen 23 undocumened workers were
added o he consrucion indusry and he res were disribued using he same
mehod.
Undocumented workers by industry
In Te Characerisics o Unauhorized Immigrans in Caliornia, Los Angeles
Couny and he Unied Saes, he auhors provide esimaes o he percenage o
undocumened workers in 13 aggregaed indusries.13 Because no similar break-
down exiss or New Mexico, we used he Caliornia disribuions o esimae New
Mexicos share o undocumened workers by indusry.
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11 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
Undocumented worker value-added contribution by industry
In order o esimae he undocumened worker conribuions o gross sae prod-
uc in each indusry, we applied he ollowing calculaion:
VA*Uj = (VA / E)*Uj
Where:
UUndocumened workers in indusry jJAny given indusry VAoal value added Eoal employmen
Deportation scenarios
In his sudy, we calculae he impacs resuling rom he deporaion o 15 per-
cen, 30 percen, 50 percen, and 100 percen o undocumened workers. Tese
calculaions were perormed by esimaing he number o undocumened work-
ers by indusry and running he IMPLAN model o calculae he exac impac o
hese workers (all else equal).
Te model provides a good esimae o changes in economic aciviy imporan
o his sudy. Te main economic impacs analyzed are: employmen impacs;
oupu impacs; value-added impacs; labor-income impacs; and ax impacs.
Wage differences between legal and undocumented workers
Tis sudy assumes undocumened workers wages are 18 percen lower han
hose o legal workers. o assure ha our gures are he mos conservaive
esimaes possible, we have placed a cap or wages o undocumened workers
in high-wage indusries. Tese indusries are: uiliies, rened energy, ranspor
equipmen, and elecronic equipmen. Te cap consiss o wo imes he medianworker income o unauhorized immigrans ($36,000 x 2 = $72,000), and in
indusries where he median wage was higher han he cap, undocumened
workers wages were reduced by 50 percen insead o 18 percen.14 Based on
his assumpion, we esimaed legal and undocumened workers wages using
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12 Center or American Progress |The Cons equences o Le gal izat ion Versus Mass Depor tation in New Mexi co
IMPLAN base employee compensaion. Nex, we legalized hose workers,
increasing heir wages o he prevailing marke wage.
When all workers across he sae economy earn he same wages, he labor wage
bill increases, as does oupu based on he increases in wage-based demand. Based
on previous experiences o legalizaion (such as he impac o he ImmigraionReorm and Conrol Ac o 1986), we assume labor produciviy grows in com-
mensurae proporion o wage increases due o legalizaion and a consan wage
elasiciy o labor demand, hus resuling in a sable employmen rae.
Fiscal analysis
ax impacs or his sudy are calculaed in wo pars. Te rs par is calculaed
by exracing oal populaion ax conribuions or he base year (IMPL AN
base year daa). Te second par is calculaed by exracing he dieren per-cenages o undocumened workers rom he economy and hen comparing
he resuls o he original IMPLAN daa. Te dierence in ax revenue is he
undocumened worker conribuion.
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About the Author
Professor Ral Hinojosa-Ojeda is he ounding direcor o he Norh American
Inegraion and Developmen Cener and associae proessor in he Division o
Social Sciences and he Csar E. Chvez Deparmen o Chicana and Chicano
Sudies a he Universiy o Caliornia, Los Angeles. Born in Mexico and raised in
Chicago, he received a B.A. in economics, an M.A. in anhropology, and a Ph.D.
in poliical science a he Universiy o Chicago. Proessor Hinojosa-Ojeda has
held various academic and policy research posiions in a variey o universiies
and public insiuions, including he World Bank, InerAmerican DevelopmenBank, he Whie House Council o Economic Advisers, he Unied Saes rade
Represenaive, Sanord Universiy, and he Universiy o Caliornia, Berkeley.
Proessor Hinojosa-Ojeda ounded he Norh American Inegraion and
Developmen Cener a UCLA in 1995, dedicaed o developing innovaive research
agendas and policy pilo projecs concerning globalizaion and developmen.
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Endnotes
1 In order to have the most accurate data, we use theAmerican Community Survey ve-year estimates ortotal state population (2006-2010), which pools thedata collected over multiple years and is less proneto sampling error. See When to use 1-year, 3-year, or5-year estimates, available at http://www.census.gov/acs/www/guidance_or_data_users/estimates/.
2 For example, with ewer people around to spend theirwages, local businesses will lose customers and prots,and will likely be unable to sustain as many jobs, lead-ing to urther economic troubles.
3 Previous reports released by the Center or AmericanProgress in conjunction with the Immigration PolicyCenter have included direct, indirect, and inducedeects o legalization or deportation o undocu-
mented workers. For more inormation, please see R aulHinojosa-Ojeda and Marshall Fitz, A Rising Tide or aShrinking Pie: The Economic Impact o LegalizationVersus Deportation in Arizona (Washington: Centeror American Progress, 2011) available at http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/03/pd/rising_tide.pd, and Revitalizing the Golden State: What Legaliza-tion Over Deportation Could Mean to Caliornia andLos Angeles County (Washington: Center or AmericanProgress, 2011), available at http://www.american-progress.org/issues/2011/04/pd/ca_immigration.pd.
4 Demographic data rom American Community Survey5 year data, 2006-2010; Passel and Cohn, Unauthor-ized Immigrant Population.
5 The number o employed undocumented workerswas calculated by discounting the Pew HispanicCenter numbers or the size o the undocumented
workorce (which includes employed and unemployedpeople,) by the state unemployment rate or oreignborn non-citizens, 7 percent in 2010, the base year orcalculations. See American Community Survey 5-yearestimates, 2006-2010; Passel and Cohn, UnauthorizedImmigrant Population.
6 A 100 percent deportation scenario, where all jobsdisappear and no native workers replace the undocu-mented is clearly the worst-case scenario. We haveincluded multiple deportation scenarios (15 percent,30 percent, 50 percent, and 100 percent,) to illustratewhat would happen i even a portion o these jobsevaporate. And economic research backs the claimthat, as the Immigration Policy Center puts it, There isno direct correlation between the presence o recentimmigrants and unemployment levels at the regional,state, or county levels. In general native-born workersand recent immigrant workers compliment, rather than
confict with one another, and are not easily substitut-able, generally having dierent work and skill histories,and living in dierent locations. See: Immigration PolicyCenter, The Economic Blame Game; and ImmigrationPolicy Center, Not in Competition. Immigrant workersalso sustain workers in other sectors, with the U.S.Department o Agriculture estimating that each arm
job sustains three other jobs in upstream occupations,such as transportation or manuacturing. See Holt,
Testimony beore the Committee on Agriculture.
7 For example, ater the passage o Georgias immigrationlaw H.B. 87 which drove many undocumented workersout o the state, a sur vey by the Georgia RestaurantAssociation ound that hal (49 percent) o respondentsexperienced labor shortages, and a whopping 88percent were concerned with experiencing uture laborshortages. See Georgia R estaurant Association, Geor-gia Immigration R eorm: Restaurant Impact Study.
8 Hagan, Lowe, and Quingla, Skills on the Move; Lowe,Hagan, and Iskander, Revealing talent.
9 Bureau o International Labor Aairs, Eects o theImmigration Reorm and Control Act.
10 Tax eects in IMPLAN are derived rom wage increasesresulting rom the legalization o undocumented work-
ers. This tax analysis represents the estimated increasein tax revenue generated by a change in nal demand,refecting only the direct impacts o increasing wagesto undocumented workers.
11 American Community Survey 5 year data, 2006-2010;Passel and Cohn, Unauthorized Immigrant Population.
12 For more inormation on the IMPLAN system, see: MIG,inc.s IMPLAN website, available at http://implan.com/V4/Index.php. For other immigration and economicmodeling uses o IMPLAN, see, or example: RandyCapps, Kristen McCabe, and Michael Fix, Prole oImmigrants in Napa County (Washington: MigrationPolicy Institute, 2012), available at http://www.migra-tionpolicy.org/pubs/Napa-Prole.pd.
13 Karina Fortuny, Randy Capps, and Jerey S. Passel,The Characteristics o Unauthorized Immigrants in
Caliornia, Los Angeles County, and the United States(Washington: The Urban Institute, 2007), available athttp://www.urban.org/uploadedpd/411425_charac-teristics_immigrants.pd.
14 Note: For the New Mexico State gures, the wages oundocumented workers in the industry category oRened Energy still crossed the $72,000 thresholdeven ater discounting the wages by 50 percent; or thiscategory alone we discounted the overall wages by 60percent to ensure the most conservative results.
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