decision support modelling under uncertainty empowering organisations with clarity
Post on 18-Dec-2015
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Strategy Foresight works with senior officers and direction-setting teams to:
1. Perform a very advanced form of (knowledge) gap analysis
2. Tackle genuine uncertainty before modelling risk
3. Construct scenarios and develop strategy alternatives
4. Develop ‘what if’ models for stakeholder engagement
5. Relate means and ends in complex situations with limited resources
6. Analyse and develop organisational and system structure
Strategy Foresight is not a consulting firm
Facilitators who work with very complex issues aka ‘wicked problems’
Model unintended consequences of policy design, product design features etc.
Proprietary software – models developed in real time with the client
No army of researchers – the client’s workshop team are the specialists
Strategy Foresight facilitates entire process by:
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Prioritise
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Prioritise
Deploying highly experiencedfacilitators
Designing specialist workshop teams
Using processes developed in the military
Policy formulation
Product design
Business intelligence
Crisis planning
Futures research
We develop multi-attribute ‘what if’ models for decision support under uncertainty
The above example depicts 186,624 formal combinations – with facilitation and proprietary software, this can reduced by over 99%
Inputs Outputs
…..and provide clients with novel software to construct their own scenarios and strategy alternatives
1. Input and outputs interchangeable - manipulate both cause and effect
2. Ability to freeze and compare scenarios and strategy alternatives
3. Reducing decision alternatives does not require re-developing entire model
4. Easily updatable: visual, real time systematic group exploration for collective creativity and decision-making
5. Speed, efficiency and cost of facilitation and model development is a fraction of traditional consultancies
Case Study 1: New financial products for uncertain futures
The Issue
• How to develop new carinsurance products in theface of uncertain futures
e.g. climate shock, peak oil,financial crash, war
• What type of autoinsurance products for
different customer segments to remain
ahead of the pack
The Intervention
• Developed an inference model framework to allowclient to identify types of
products dependent upon different future scenarios
The Result
• Range of niche productsidentified for differentcustomer segments
including those iffinancial crash occurred
• Implemented strategies for financial crash
• Unearthed novelsolutions such as
car subscription and instant SMS insurance
The Client
• Major Insurance firm
• Director of Researchwith direct
reporting to CEO
The Issue
• How to develop new carinsurance products in theface of uncertain futures
e.g. climate shock, peak oil,financial crash, war
• What type of autoinsurance products for
different customer segments to remain
ahead of the pack
The Client
• Major Insurance firm
• Director of Researchwith direct
reporting to CEO
Case Study 2: Sustainability Issues for large scale producers
The Issue
• Develop scenarios andappropriate strategies for
Extended ProducerResponsibility (EPR) system
• To comply with EuropeanDirectives of each member
state implementing EPRpolicy
The Intervention
• Multi-dimensional matrixinference model developed
by convening disparate EPR stakeholders
The Result
• Generation of different future projections with
associated national strategic directions
e.g. developmentof regional high-tech
recycling industry sector
The Client
• Ministry of Environment and Environmental Protection Agency
• Minister of State forEnvironment
What’s the outcome?
• Accommodate multiple, alternative perspectives to anticipate unintended consequences vs. prescribing single solution
• Anticipates consequences of decisions made under conditions of high uncertainty, incomplete data and high decision stakes
• Manage genuine uncertainty by facilitating comparative judgements on a sound methodological basis
Strategy Foresight unlocks latent organisational capacity for you to move forward with purpose
“Organisations have no sparemental capacity. They’re sopreoccupied dealing with theirpresent problems that its nigh-onpossible to engage them in aconversation about the future”
SFPSFP
Ravetz and Funtowicz, 1993
Management Consulting Association (UK) Annual Report, 2009
Foresight MonitoringForesight Monitoring
Knowledge CentreKnowledge Centre
Sector IntelligenceSector Intelligence
Custom ResearchCustom Research
Foresight ManagementForesight Management Foresight CommunityForesight Community
Online communityOnline community
Symposia and workshopsSymposia and workshops
Thought LeadershipThought Leadership
Client assignmentsClient assignments
Client updatesClient updates
Client crisis managementClient crisis management
InsightInsight AnalysisAnalysis ForesightForesight
Research Advisory Facilitation NetworkingResearch Advisory Facilitation Networking
Primary and SecondaryResearch
Modelling sectorsTraining facilitators
Peer dialogueSharing next practice
Strategy Foresight is flexible to client needs
SFP has completed 125+ projects across the globe
Improving quality and quantity of investment grade deal flow (UK)*
Developing auto insurance products for global threats (Sweden)
Bioethics of drug redevelopment (UK)
New strategic directions for FMCG multinational (Sweden)*
Predicting and mitigating risks to corporate reputation (UK)*
Sustainable mining techniques (Brazil)
* current projects
Contacting Strategy Foresight LLP
Strategy Foresight Partnership LLPInnovation Warehouse1 East Poultry AvenueFarringdon London EC1M 6HJ
Tel: 07786 266878Fax: 0208 8612925Email: info@strategyforesight.org Web: www.strategyforesight.org
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