decision-making: dilemmas in policy design – case study of forest practices

Decision-making: Dilemmas in Policy Design – Case Study of Forest Practices 1

Artist: Holly Friesen

Today’s Agenda Midterm Decision-making

theoriesCase: 6% solution

policy design Tools - instrument

choice Configuration

October 29, 2013 Sustainable Forest Policy 2

Midterm Stats

0-19

30-39

50-54

60-63

68-71

76-79

85-89

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Distribution of Midterm Grades

Frequency

Average: 64 %Mode: 66 %Median: 66 %Max: 85%Min: 34 %

Policy Cycle Model

4

Agenda-Setting

Policy Formulation

Decisionmaking

Policy Implementation

Monitoring and Evaluation

Decisionmaking

Theories: How policy makers decide

Policy Design: What kind of things they decide about – tools

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Theory I: Rational-Comprehensive Model clarify objectives, prioritize them list all alternatives assess consequences of alternatives compare alternatives choose alternative that

maximizes/optimizes objectives

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Rational-Comprehensive Model - Criticisms Assumes values can be identified and

compared pervasive conflict result: policy often made without clarifying

objectives Assumes complete information on

alternatives, consequences criticism:

▪ lack of information, understanding, time/resources result: rational approach impossible or too

costlyOctober 29, 2013 Sustainable Forest Policy 7

Theory II: IncrementalismCharles Lindblom, “The Science of Muddling Through”

no means-ends distinction alternative search limited to those closest

to status quo ignores possible consequences decision rule: “satisfice” test of good policy: agreement successive limited comparisons: trial and

error learning

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Incrementalism - critique

policies divisible errors tolerable every interest has

its watchdog

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Insights from Incrementalism Helps to explain

government drift, inertia inability to think big difficulty with long term planning vague policies that postpone conflict resolution

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D-M Theories: Conclusion

rational model – useful to aspire to, but poor account of real world

Incremental model – shows how governments not so much “stupid” but “constrained”

More feasible when context has: few actors good information stability

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Today’s Agenda decision-making

theoriesCase: 6% solution

policy design Tools - instrument

choice policy design

Tools - instrument choice

Configuration

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Categories of Forest Policy1. Allocation of “Crown” timber--

tenure 2. Pricing -- stumpage 3. Rate of harvest – allowable annual

cut (AAC)4. Land Use – zoning for different

values (logging, conservation, etc)5. Regulation of harvesting --

Forest Practices6. Emergent areas and overlaps (

energy, carbon) 13

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Incrementalism in action: The 6% Solution

Forest Practices Code: NDP government (introduced 1994; in effect

1995) Significant increase in regulation to protect

environmental values Resulted in business alarm about impact on

industry

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6% (cont) How should environment and economic

criteria be balanced? rational model: objectives, consequences,

decision▪ optimal balance between environmental and

timber objectives Reality: backward policy-making (Hoberg

2001) Cabinet directive to limit impact on AAC to 6%

no publicly available explanation or rationale

6% (cont) FPC Timber Supply

Analysis (Feb 96) stated as projection

of AAC impacts remarkable

coincidence! Answer: 6%

became policy output, not input

Remains in force today

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Sustainable Forest Policy 17

Apportioning 6% by value

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6% - Policy Strategy towards tradeoffs when facing harsh tradeoffs, adopt

constraints to guide decision making and implementation

advantage: certainty for industry disadvantage: arbitrariness incrementalism, not “rational”

Today’s Agenda Decision-making

theoriesCase: 6% solution

policy design Tools -

instrument choice

Configuration

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Policy Design Toolbox

Policy Instruments category Settings configuration

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Policy Instruments - Categories persuasion, education property rights spending taxation regulation

information activities

direct provision

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Regulating Forest PracticesAlternative Approaches

Approach Example from protecting riparian values

guidelines (best practices) suggest, but do not require, practices like stream buffers

technology- or practice-based regulations

30 meter no harvest zone

performance- or results-based regulations

maintain water quality within the range of natural variation

compulsory management planning requirement to develop a plan to protect riparian values

Instrument Configuration formality - guidelines or rules? transparency simplicity congruence: rule varies to match

problem

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Instrument Configuration formality - guidelines or rules? transparency simplicity congruence: rule varies to match

problem

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Riparian Protection

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design challenge: accommodating spatial diversity

Objective: congruent, but simple and clear

1. Vary the rules to account for different circumstances (Prescriptive congruence)

2. Rely on professional judgment (Professional delegation)

3. Rely on local plans (Geographical delegation)

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design challenge: accommodating spatial diversity

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congruence transparency simplicity

Prescriptive congruence

good good poor

Professional delegation

good poor good

Geographical delegation

good medium medium

New Themes

Because of the challenges on conflict resolution, policy is often made without clarifying objectives

Because of limited resources, rational decision-making is usually not feasible

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Thursday

Designing policies for protecting environmental values in BC’s forests: the case of forest practices

October 29, 2013 Sustainable Forest Policy 29

Artist: Holly Friesen