day 3 analogous, estimates and semantics for process

Estimation course

Introducing

ANALOGOUS ESTIMATE

This is how Mgt views your estimates

This is how they will treat the estimates

Take your time and do them well

Analogous estimates

What is an analogy?

Analogy explained

Steps to analogy

1. Find out the parameters of project2.Find the project from past which

maps best3.Find out the changes as they are

today4.Account for the changes5.Compute the estimates

Examples

Building a standard home

6 months

Road trip to Ladakh on a Pulsar

15 Calendar days

Analogous Estimates are applicable when

The following are available1.Historical records2.High Congruence3.Trustable data4.Same units5.Variance in operatingConditions known

Analogous :

Project Parameters, Performance details of previous projects . Minor variance in operating conditions

Precise Inputs

Precise Output

Project Likely timeLikely cost

Typical timelines

http://www.amazon.com/Eliciting-Analyzing-Expert-Judgment-Probability/dp/0898714745

Process Semantics

Action Block

I

STARTING INPUT

TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS

MAIN OUTPUT

BYPRODUCTS& WASTE

FEEDBACK LOOP

Estimation in Windows copy file dialog

Top down and bottoms up

Assignment on Expert judgment

1. Context : You are the President of US and have got confirmed intelligence on the hideout of Osama Bin Laden and have decided to authorize his capture/killing . The operation involves Transporting elite Navy seals, Air Operations to transport ammunitions and equipment , Land operations to neutralize the guards and defenses and recover evidences . Finally transport the seals and body of Osama to a Naval vessel and do the final rites .

2. Divide the team into 3 groups : Air , Navy , Land3. Each team solves the problem of finding the time and aggregate cost of the

operation .4. Allow each team to complete the plans and summarize the figures to team5. Compare the estimates and plannings with actual operation : http://

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Operation_Neptune_Spear

What’s Your Message? DRIVE WELL