david c. wheelock september 20, 2007 an overview of the great depression

David C. Wheelock

September 20, 2007

An Overview of the Great Depression

What makes a Depression Great?

• Recession: When your neighbor loses his or her job.

• Depression: When you lose your job.

Why study the Great Depression?

• Worst economic disaster of the 20th century.

• Cause or causes are still debated.

• A defining event, especially for the government’s involvement in the economy.

• Useful for learning important macroeconomic concepts.

Some Concepts

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Comprehensive measure of the nation’s output of final goods and services.

• Real GDP: GDP measured at a fixed price level (i.e., inflation adjusted).

• Nominal GDP: GDP measured at current prices.

• Recession: Sustained decline in real GDP (approximately two quarters). Officially declared by NBER committee.

• Depression: Very severe recession.

More Concepts

• Inflation: A sustained increase in the general price level (often calculated in terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)).

• Deflation: A sustained decrease in the general price level.

• Money Stock: The stock of assets that serve as media of exchange (e.g., coin, currency, checking accounts).

• Real Interest Rate: Measure of the cost of borrowing adjusted for inflation/deflation.

• Real output (GDP) fell 29% from 1929 to 1933.

• Unemployment increased to 25% of labor force.

• Consumer prices fell 25%; wholesale prices 32%.

• Some 7000 banks failed.

How Great was the Great Depression?

Why Did It Happen? Some Suggested Causes

• The stock market crash – end of the party

Stock Market Boom and Bust

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5

10

15

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25

30

35

Jan-21 Jan-23 Jan-25 Jan-27 Jan-29 Jan-31 Jan-33 Jan-35 Jan-37 Jan-39

Sept. 1929

July 1932

S&P Composite Index

The Stock Market Crash

The timing of the crash (Oct. 1929) is suggestive.

Possible channels:

• Destruction of wealth

• Increased uncertainty

• Role of banks

Conclusion: Probably had some effect, but not big enough by itself.

Why Did It Happen? Some Suggested Causes

• The stock market crash – end of the party

• Collapse of world trade – globalization in reverse

The Collapse of World Trade

$ value imports of 75 countries

Why Did It Happen? Some Suggested Causes

• The stock market crash – end of the party

• Collapse of world trade – globalization in reverse

• Monetary collapse

Bank Failures

• 7000 banks failed -- many during “panics”

• Number of banks fell from 25,000 in 1929 to 15,000 by 1934

Possible Channels:

• Loss of deposits decline in expenditures

• Customer relationships broken harder to borrow

• Money supply contraction

Commercial Bank Failures, 1920-2004

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500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

19201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000

Banking Panics

• Bank depositors lost confidence bank runs

• Banks lost gold, currency and other reserve assets

• Loss of reserves caused banks to reduce loans and deposits (causing money stock to fall)

• Contracting money stock reduced spending

• Reduced spending led to lay-offs (increased unemployment), falling prices (deflation) and lower output.

• Fed officials did not watch (or even measure) the money supply. But, why didn’t they respond to bank panics?

• Most failed banks were small, nonmember banks.

• Interest rates were falling and few banks borrowed at the discount window.

The Fed’s Monetary Policy

Nominal Interest Rate, 1922-33

Percent

But Were Interest Rates Really Falling?

• Deflation caused the real interest rate (i.e., the real cost of borrowing) to rise sharply: i(nominal) – inflation rate = i(real)

e.g., 2% (10%) = 2% + 10% = 12%

Firms stopped investing in new buildings, equipment, etc.

Bankruptcies increased as borrowers lacked the incomes to repay their debts.

Banks failed because borrowers defaulted on their loans.

Nominal and Real Interest Rates, 1922-33

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2

4

6

8

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12

14

1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933

Percent

Nominal

Real

Recovery

• Rapid money supply growth (end of banking panic, gold inflows)

rising price level

falling real interest rate

and increased spending.

Money and the Price Level

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939

$ millions

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20

consumer price index (1982-84 = 100)

money stock(left scale)

price level(right scale)

The Real Interest Rate and Business Investment

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2.0

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6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941

-4

-1

2

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8

11

14

Real Interest Rate

Business Investment

Business Investment, Billions of Dollars; Annual Data Treasury bill yield minus inflation rate

Money (M2) and Output Growth, 1929-41

percent change: fourth quarter to fourth quarter

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941

GNP

M2

Recovery

• Rapid money supply growth (end of banking panics, gold inflows) rising price level, falling real interest rate and increased spending.

• FDR and the New Deal?– Restored confidence in banking system (FDIC)– Early years marked by regulation/reform, little

new spending (alphabet programs, e.g., NRA, WPA, PWA, CCC, etc.)

– Later years saw increased spending

Recovery

• Rapid money supply growth (end of banking panics, gold inflows) rising price level, falling real interest rate and increased spending.

• FDR and the New Deal?– Restored confidence in banking system (FDIC)– Early years marked by regulation/reform, little

new spending (alphabet programs, e.g., NRA, WPA, PWA, CCC, etc.)

– Later years saw increased spending

• World War II (when unemployment finally fell below 10%)

• The Depression was not a failure of capitalism or markets, but rather a failure of the Federal Reserve.

• Monetary policy should maintain price stability – avoid deflation and inflation.

• The Fed should respond to financial crises that increase the demand for money or threaten to disrupt the payments system.

Could It Happen Again?