data and tools for climate change vulnerability...

Johannes HuninkPeter Droogers

Data and tools for climate change vulnerability assessments

Sep-2016, Yerevan

Workshop on data collection and water balances, Armenia

> “Research and consulting on water resource management”

> Topics: water, food, irrigation, climate change, droughts, remote sensing, models

> Outputs: technical reports, policy reports, scientific publications, training, datasets, models, operational

services

> Partners/Clients: World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Governments, River Basin Organizations, Research

Entities, Science Foundations

> Geographical focus: Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America

> Offices: Wageningen (NL), Cartagena (ES): 12 staff

FutureWater

> Objective and the trainings

> Water and climate

> Data

> Armenia

> Program of this workshop

Contents

> Objective─ increase the national capacity in using models for qualified assessment of

vulnerability and planning of adaptation measures particularly in water sector and agriculture

> Workshops:1. On data and analysis framework - now2. Theoretical on crop modeling – next month3. Practical training on crop modeling – next month

> Scenario definition and data collection: ─ Together with you─ Online support, skype, email

Johannes Hunink, j.hunink@futurewater.es Peter Droogers, p.droogers@futurewater.nl

Project Background and Relevance

Quantitative informationWhy water balance and allocation modeling for climate adaptation in agriculture

Today

Future Focus

Policies:

A, B, C

• Observations

• Statistics

• Questionnaires

• Remote Sensing

• Evaluate Alternatives

• Simulation Models

Trend ????

FuturePast

Future B

Tools for decision making

planting today harvestw

ate

r p

rod

uctivity

un

ce

rtain

ty

past future

un

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rtain

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planting today harvest

past futuremodelw

ate

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uctivity

Modeling: what for?

Modeling: what for?

For example: Hydrological Now- and Forecasting:

From PhD thesis J. M. Schuurmans (2008)

> Understanding processes─ unlimited spatial resolution─ unlimited temporal resolution─ difficult measurable processes

> Options for future─ scenario analysis─ what .. if

Model Application

> Largest water consumer─ How much water do you drink─ How much water do you “eat”

Understanding Full Water System

> Global

> Armenia─ 500 mm/y rainfall─ 30,000 km2

─ 15000 MCM/y

Scale and models

Model categories

Physical detail

lowhigh

Sp

ati

al s

ca

le

field

system

basin

continentPodium

STREAM

SLURP

WSBM

SWAT

WEAP

IQQM

SWAP

WaterMod

All models are wrong but some models are useful

(George E. P. Box)

Modeling Inputs and Outputs

13

GCMsGeneral Circulation

Models

WEAPWater Evaluation And

Planning

AquaCrop

CLIRUNClimate Runoff

TemperaturePrecipitationLatitude

Rainfall Runoff

Temperature PrecipitationSoil CompositionCrop Type

Location

Water DemandReservoir SpecificationsRiver Basin Management

Irrigation Demand

Adaptation Model

Adaptation costsEconomic parameters

Crop yields

Strategic DSS

> What happens if….

> Investment decisions

> Impact and adaptation scenarios

Decision Support Systems (DSS)

Operational DSS

> What to do now

> Managerial decisions

> License scenarios

Same tool but different level of

> input data

> physical detail

> time steps

> Understanding current situation observations remote sensing models

> Projections (external) population macro-economic climate

> Impact of projections water shortages flooding extremes

> Alternatives (=interventions) Business as Usual Integrated Water Resources Management

Water Planning

Data Sources

locally-sourced

non-RS

globalpublic-domain

RemoteSensing

Land Cover

StreamflowOperations

Climate

BioMass

Soils

Topography

Socio-Economic

Groundwater

Evaporation

Climate change vulnerability Armenia

Key Climate Challenges in Georgia

18

Figure 15: Climate Change Vulnerability Index, ECA RegionSource: The World Bank, 2009. Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia, Washington DC

Important Climate Change Concepts

Direct effects of climate change, including changes in precipitation, temperature, and frequency and intensity of extreme events.

The effects on human activities and ecosystems that result from climate change hazards. More vulnerable communities will face more pronounced impacts.

Steps taken to reduce the impacts of climate change.

19

Hazards

Impacts

Adaptation

Concept Description Example

Higher temperatures

cause heat stress on

some crops and

increased evaporation

rates.

The hazard of increased

temperature leads to

declines (or increases) in

crop productivity and

increased water

demand.

Rehabilitated irrigation

systems and changes in

seed variety.

Source: J.A. Neumann et al., 2014. Building resilience to climate change in South Caucasus agriculture. World Bank report

Key climate challenges in Georgia

Higher temperatures of 1.7°C by the 2040s and 3.2°C by the 2070s

Decreased precipitation trends of 10% over last 80 years, but some regions also increase has been observed

Streamflow is predicted to increase in some area, decrease in others.

Increased occurrence of extreme events frost, hailstorms

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Projected Crop Yield Impacts

21

Impact on wheat yield, Armenia

Source: Droogers and Hunink, 2012. Assessment of Impact of Climate Change on Wheat in Armenia, Azerbaijan and

Georgia. FutureWater report 108

> Increase

> Assess using an agro-hydrological model like AquaCrop

> But what about supply versus demand?

Irrigation water demand

23

Modeling Inputs and Outputs

24

GCMsGeneral Circulation

Models

WEAPWater Evaluation And

Planning

AquaCrop

CLIRUNClimate Runoff

TemperaturePrecipitationLatitude

Rainfall Runoff

Temperature PrecipitationSoil CompositionCrop Type

Location

Water DemandReservoir SpecificationsRiver Basin Management

Irrigation Demand

Adaptation Model

Adaptation costsEconomic parameters

Crop yields

WEAP: Water Allocation Model

WEAP: Basic Model

WEAP Results

WEAP Results

WEAP Results

WEAP: Advanced Model

Adaptation measures

31

> Shift crops from areas that are vulnerable to drought

> Enhanced cultivars more tolerant to heat/drought

> Installation of small scale reservoirs on farmland and other rainwater harvesting meaures

> Alter crop rotations

> Use of precision farming: tillage, leveling of land, etc

> Water charging or tradable permit schemes

> Regional or nationwide drought insurance program

> Construction of large scale reservoirs

Example Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Impact of Increased Risk of Drought and Water Scarcity

32

Example of scenario analysis using AquaCrop

Source: Hunink, J., P. Droogers. 2010. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Crop Production in Albania. World Bank Study on

Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Agricultural Systems. FutureWater Report 105

> From questionnaire:─ Cultivation of dry-climate crops, application of water saving technologies such

as drip irrigation. ─ System of effective water and soil use management. ─ Providing subsidies based on climate scenarios, which will support the farmer

in ensuring crops and food security. ─ Revision of some crop species selection. ─ Natural resources must be managed in a proper way. ─ Improve agricultural crops cultivation management taking into account water

supply problems, as well as mitigate the impact of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena

─ It is necessary to evaluate the dynamics in plants’ demand for water in different zones (lowlands, foothills and mountains) based on the changes of agro-climatic conditions and need for water saving technology introduction.

Your ideas on adaptation

Thank You