darryl conroy_suncorp bank_sunshine coast 2012 may business survey results

Prepare for Battle

Darryl ConroyMay 2012

General Advice Warning

• This advice has been prepared without taking into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. For that reason, before acting on the advice you should consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs.

• Where the advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product, you should obtain a Product Disclosure Statement relating to the product and consider the Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.

Wall of Worry

Recession unemployment interest rates

mining boom competition Sales

government Fly-in/Fly-out House Prices

regulation sovereign debt inflation

Climate Change profits Tourism COSTSCarbon Tax Reserve Bank $A

Red Tape

Europe currency China 3

20 Years of Growth

4

Crises are Common

5Source: Reinhart & Rogoff

Sunshine Coast Economy

6

• $10 billion • Doubled in 10 years• 34,500 businesses

Sunny Coast

7

4.1%

95.9%

Economic Growth(GDP)

Sunshine Coast

Queensland

Sunshine Coast Queensland5.25%

5.50%

5.75%

6.00%

6.25%

Unemployment Rate

Sunny Coast EconomyBig Five

1. Professional & Technical Services2. Food & Accommodation3. Retail Trade4. IT & Telecoms5. Manufacturing

Total 55%

8

Then & Now

Last Decade

• Tourism• Construction• Retail

Next Decade

• Health• Education• Communication• Clean ‘n’ Green• Aviation• Creative Industry

9

Business Survey - Constraints

1. Rising Overheads & Costs (53%)2. Price Pressures from Customers (43%)3. Price Pressures from Competitors

(39%)4. Declining Customer Base (37%)5. Global / National Economy (35%)

Respondents 2,71910

Oil Prices…

11

All About Resources

12

Feb-92

Nov-92

Aug-93

May-

94

Feb-95

Nov-95

Aug-96

May-

97

Feb-98

Nov-98

Aug-99

May-

00

Feb-01

Nov-01

Aug-02

May-

03

Feb-04

Nov-04

Aug-05

May-

06

Feb-07

Nov-07

Aug-08

May-

09

Feb-10

Nov-10

Aug-11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Source: Indexmundi.com

Which Commodity ?

Economy Transforms

14

Mining Drags

• Capital• Labour• Infrastructure

Sunshine Coast Tourism

15

Visitors Change

Domestic 5%

International 17%

Total 3%

Expenditure 2%

Source: Tourism Queensland

Tourists Go Offshore

16

The Game has Changed !

17

Just Borrow More ?

“ The British government has run

out of money because all the

money was spent in the good years.”

~ George Osborne

18

Behaviours Change

1. Consumers – Cautious & Saving

2. Business – Uncertain & Tightening

3. Government – Austerity & Surpluses

19

Business Squeeze

Costs Rising & Sales Falling...

Volume driven business to struggle

v

Margin driven business to prosper

20

Consequences…

21

A Tale of Two Cities

22

Port Headland Donga Parisian Chateau

Housing Sector

23

Interest Rates

24

1/8/

90

1/3/

91

1/10

/91

1/5/

92

1/12

/92

1/7/

93

1/2/

94

1/9/

94

1/4/

95

1/11

/95

1/6/

96

1/1/

97

1/8/

97

1/3/

98

1/10

/98

1/5/

99

1/12

/99

1/7/

00

1/2/

01

1/9/

01

1/4/

02

1/11

/02

1/6/

03

1/1/

04

1/8/

04

1/3/

05

1/10

/05

1/5/

06

1/12

/06

1/7/

07

1/2/

08

1/9/

08

1/4/

09

1/11

/09

1/6/

10

1/1/

11

1/8/

110.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00Official Cash Rate

Source: RBA

Markets pricing a 3% Cash Rate

Fixed Rates Already Low

25

Carbon Tax

60 days to go

26

Business Impact

Big Unknown…

1. Initial Indirect Impact2. Business Inflation3. Long Term Contracts (legal)

Demographic Risk – fixed incomes

27

Review Your Business

1. Conduct an Energy Audit2. Carbon Calculators (online)3. Engage Customers

GET INVOLVED !!!

28

29

Alec Sloth. Falls 26, 2005.

That’s All Folks !

darryl.conroy@suncorp.com.au