darren quinlivan - metro trains melbourne

Implementing the Australian Rail Risk Model (ARRM) at Metro Trains MelbourneDarren Quinlivan, Strategy & Risk ManagerSafety, Environment & Risk

What is the Australian Rail Risk Model (ARRM)?

• Quantitative model estimating the risk of various hazardous events that could occur on a

railway

• RISSB project stage 1 due for delivery late 2017

• The project is associating occurrence data from ONRSR into the model

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Hazardous Events

A model of safety risk on Australian Railways

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Example taken from UK Safety risk model

Taken from UK RSSB Annual Safety Performance Report 2015/2016 rssb.co.uk

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Example – Hazardous Event

Model includes possible ranges of harm from

derailments and the probabilities of escalation

• The worst derailment in Australia was

Granville, in 1977, when 83 died

• But most derailments result in no harm to

persons

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Risk Estimates

• The unit of risk will be Fatalities and Weighted Injuries per year (FWI/yr), where one FWI is equivalent to:

one fatality, or 10 serious injuries, or 200 minor injuries.

• Risk estimates will be iteratively updated based on the occurrence data in the last period of collection

• Risk values will be normalised for your operations:

• e.g. Track length, Freight kilometres travelled, Passenger kilometres travelled, Infrastructure

worker hours, Passenger journeys per year.

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

So…How will this improve safety on the Melbourne Network?

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Benefits

ARRM provides a greater understanding of risk, its causes and consequences

• Measuring Safety Performance

• Setting priorities• Benchmarking against other operators

• Making Safe Decisions

• New projects coming on line• Decisions to ensure continued safety of changes to legacy assets

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Melbourne Network

Undergoing the greatest network transformation in its history:

• 50 Level Crossing removals

• 65 High Capacity Metro Trains

• Metro Tunnel Project

• High Capacity Signalling(including CBTC)

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Measuring Safety Performance

Some conventional measures:

• All injury frequency rate

• Lost time injury frequency rate and severity rate

• Customer injury frequency rate

• Rate of Signals Passed at Danger

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

How do we measure safety risk?

Measuring Safety Performance

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017 Consequence Severity

Frequency of Occurrence

Slips, trips and falls

Musculoskeletal injury

Electrical risk

Collisions/derailment risks

UK 10 year trend in risk precursors

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Level crossing removals

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

UK Estimated risk vs observed rate of harm

Taken from UK RSSB SRM-Risk Profile Bulletin rssb.co.ukMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

UK Summary of overall safety risk

Taken from UK RSSB SRM-Risk Profile Bulletin rssb.co.ukMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Sources of risk UK

Taken from UK RSSB SRM-Risk Profile Bulletin rssb.co.ukMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Making Safe Decisions

Support quantitative risk analysis and cost benefit analysis

As the operator ARRM will assist validation of analyses provided by projects

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

ONRSR Major Projects Guideline

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Section 4.4 Quantitative safety limits As a minimum, the ONRSR expects: • major projects to document the upper

limit for individual or collective risks of equivalent fatality; and

• major projects to ensure documented limits are consistent with the relevant RTO’s SMS.

Melbourne Tunnel Project

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Making Safe Decisions

Compare Options or Benchmark against the Industry

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

4

Current risk Option AOption B

Industry Average

Examples of Sensitivity Tests

Assess risk/benefit from changes to:

• Protection arrangements at a level crossing

• Line-speed on track sections

• New signalling equipment or different train protection strategies

• Configuration change or upgrades to rolling stock

• Train service frequency

Metro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

• Carriage of dangerous goods

• Track maintenance

• Driver training and competence systems

• Introducing escalators rather than stairs

Thank youMetro | RISSB Rail Safety Conference | April 2017

Project contactsJesse Baker - RISSBNeil Robinson - RBG Assurance

jbaker@rissb.com.auneil.robinson@rgbassurance.com.au